Ohhh yeah!

Some blogs have been touting Jim Pederson’s mythical late surge. I guess their definition of surge is 13% points down

Amid all the stories about this being a bad year for Republicans, a Democrat is now running even with the GOP candidate in the Maryland race for a U.S. Senate seat. That’s right, a Republican in now even with the Democrat candidate in Maryland. Tuesday will be a very interesting night. 

I don’t know who did his ads but they are awesome. Fresh and positive. 

Saturday 11-4-06, 10:50 pm


  1. And it gets even better….

    ABC news has the congressional polling difference down to 6 points down for the GOP. They were down about 15-20 over the last month.

  2. Of course, three other polls within the last week all show Cardin with about a five-point lead. Let’s not mention that, however.

    Odds are this Survey USA poll showing a tie is an outlier, as is a 5th poll from the Washington Post which shows Cardin (the Dem) up by 11.

  3. By the way, I agree with not seeing a Pedersen surge. Apparently DSCC polling of early voters shows Pedersen ahead by some margin they thought was significant enough to dump a bunch of money in the race, but I just can’t see Kyl losing.

  4. Oro Valley Dad says

    Scott, mention the other polls all you want. Even if the Survey USA poll is an outliner it is still a significant event because it happened in Maryland. Cardin should be up by an easy 10% in a state like that.

    I love that the DSCC thought a million dollars would have the slighted impact in the Arizona race for U.S. Senate. That is like putting $20 into a legislative race. Too little, too late. Most people have already voted so they wasted their money.

  5. Mason Dixon has Cardin by 3. MOE =5

  6. Dad = well said. I’m curious to see how much Petersen will end up spending after his double digit loss. We’ll have to remind him of how wiser he could have spent that money by opening up more abortion factories instead.

    And why do the Nat’l Dems keep thinking they can actuallly win in AZ?? Didnt 2004 end that speculation????

  7. Oh yeah, Pedersen is throwing a ton of money down a rat hole.

    As noted, the last poll shows Cardin with a three-point lead, but MOW is four, so statistically a tie.

    Not that I’ve been there, but Cardin, from what I have heard, is NOT a very dynamic candidate.

    I agree, though, considering Sarbanes was +27 points there size years ago, you would expect Cardin to be about +10 at least.

    Steele, who is black, is being helped by getting a lot more crossover votes (largely from black democrats) than Cardin is getting. Cardin defeated a black candidate (Mfume) in the primary, and it was pretty bitter, casuing a real hit to his support from those voters.

    The last stats I saw showed Steele getting 84% of R’s and Cardin only getting 74% of D’s. Since there are moer registered D’s than R’s, that actually equates to (I estimate) 13-14 points in favor of Steele on the crossover.

    In my mind this race is the best chance for the R’s to pick up a D seat, as I can’t see NJ voters ousting Menendez in favor of Kean, even though they ought to (Menendez is as corrupt as they come).

  8. Apparently Steele is less than confident in the numbers as he (and,
    presumably, the Erlich campaign) have paid to bring in people from
    Penn. and Delaware (mostly black and poor) and hand out deliberately
    incorrect “sample ballots” to voters at polling sites which list both
    of them as Democrats.

    In fact, Steele and Erlich are both Republicans (Ehrlich for Gov.,
    Steele for Sen.).

    Distribution of clear, outright lies such as this should be simply
    illegal. Lots of stuff may be open to interpretation (really
    twisted , stretching it interpretation even), but there is no
    interpretation involved whatsoever in listing one’s party affiliation
    – or, in this case, lying about one’s party affiliation.

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