Numbers by district.

The East Valley Tribune has an overview of the Arizona congressional races. The best part of the story is the link in the second paragraph titled GRAPHIC: 2008 U.S. House races. The images point out the reality of voter registration broken out by congressional district. Despite some media claims that Democrats are gaining on Republicans in the state the Dems are not actually doing that well. The have a lock on 2 districts (CD-4 and CD-7.) Republican have a lock on 4 districts (CD-2, CD-3, CD-5, and CD-6.) A Democrat did win CD-5 in 2006 but he is seen as one as the most vulnerable Democrats in 2008. Republican registration leads in 5 districts (2, 3, 5, 6, and 7.) Democrats lead in the other 3 (1, 4, and 7.) Because of the rise in Independents and no party voters Republican registration is in 3rd place in 2 districts (4 and 7.) Democrats are in 3rd place in 3 districts (2, 5, and 6) and are very close to 3rd place in CD-3.

What these numbers show is that the media is hyping the wrong numbers. As Al Gore found out in 2000 elections are not always about winning the overall vote. Same thing in the congressional races. Your overall voter registration numbers for the state do not mean much if each election takes place in a particular district. Of course the mainstream media will keep playing up the supposed Democratic surge but we know the reality is not quite that simple.

We did an earlier story showing that the reports of a Democratic surge in overall statewide registration are false.

There are several elections being held today. Here are our Tucson Endorsements and one for Phoenix. Visit Seeing Red AZ for more Phoenix Endorsements.


Comments

  1. George of the Desert says

    I found it especially amusing to hear the Trib claim that Shadegg will have one of his toughest races in years. Didn’t he just beat Lord in 2006, a terrible GOP year? Why should 2008 be any different? The GOP registration advantage in CD 3 is too great and Shadegg carries very little personal baggage.

  2. George,

    Good questions. Shadegg actually faced and beat Herb Paine in 2006. We have been following this race closely and are working on a story on the situation. Make no mistake, Shadegg is the Democrat’s main target in 2008 in Arizona. Just like they went after Hayworth in 2006 Shadegg is this cycle’s main objective. We are not predicting a Democrat win, just that is will be a real race. Lord is a credible candidate and is getting the money and attention to make a real challenge.

    Be careful about voter registration leads. I bet J.D. at one time thought he was safe because of the numbers. We will know the fix is in if/when the Republican joins in the movement to demonize Shadegg.

    You are correct that Shadegg caries little baggage but don’t discount the Democrats ability to invent some if they cannot find anything.

  3. Good story.

    I think all three races (1, 3, and 5) could turn into nail biters depending on how world circumstances shift in the next year. Unless she slips (not likely), Giffords will retain her seat.

    You are correct about the locks on the other districts.

    Off subject, but I’m quite intrigued by this Ron Paul thing. Hmmm.

  4. Just for the record…I NEVER thought I was safe in ANY election, regardless of registration numbers.

    When I got wind of Bob Lord’s campaign, I called John Shadegg to give him the news, and suggested that he prepare.

    Of course, efforts will be made to “demonize” him…but I doubt the Dems will have the blatant co-operation of the Repugnant which they enjoyed against me in 2006.

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