No path to victory for JD

According to Rasmussen, Sen. John McCain continues to build his lead over JD Hayworth.  Every indication is the only safe choice to oppose Rodney Glassman in November is John McCain.  All polls show a very weak, if any, advantage JD would offer against the top Dem contender. According to Real Clear Politics, the 2 Dem polls are split, with one giving JD a +1 point advantage and the other a Glassman +3 point advantage with JD receiving a weak +5 points in the Hayworth/Glassman match-up when all polls are considered.  While Rasmussen offers JD a +16 point advantage over Glassman it is only at 49% support; in the most encouraging of all reports less than half of voters polled would support Hayworth.  The same Dem polls give Sen. McCain a +13 and +16 point advantage and a combined polling average of an overall +20 points, with the latest Rasmussen putting the Senator at +29 point advantage over Glassman.   

The polls show Sen. John McCain is viewed as the popular candidate by voters as the choice to represent Arizona in the US Senate with JD never able to muster a majority.  With the Hayworth campaign floundering in fundraising and unable to define his previous Congressional record as positive, even if Hayworth could overcome his huge public polling deficit behind McCain and pull out a primary victory, can he raise enough money to overcome his personal reputation/record and Glassman’s personal wealth ? 

Glassman is the son of very wealthy California liberals and closely aligned with Raul Grijalva.

If the name Dennis DeConcini rings a bell…it is the wake-up alert that without a doubt a vote for JD in the primary is too much to risk. 


Comments

  1. Double Decaf Latte says

    Good job Molly. John McCain’s people have done a great job of defining JD as someone “we VOTED OUT”. And for good reason.

    His arrogance, ties to Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal, vote for earmarks. He’s yesterdays story.

    Like the lady on TV says: Arizona just can’t afford JD Hayworth!

  2. Stephen Kohut says

    McCain continues to hover in the 47-53% range in the primary. Any incumbant not well above 50% in a contested primary is in deep crap. Earlier this week, after months of rejection, the McCain campaign accepted a minumum of two and possibly three televised debates with both challengers. Why? It’s not because he is comfortable with his lead. Maybe its due to the calls that flooded his campaign office from Pinal PCs, GOP Club members and Tea Partiers. Maybe his campaign has paid for new private polling and the numbers suck. Note that there has not been a public poll released for almost a month. So, McCain is going to debate just because he is a nice guy? Not hardly. McCain is going to debate because the race is anything but in the bag.

  3. Sorry Stephen, but you’re not correct. The general is the one that counts and nobody is giving JD a chance of taking the primary. He has never even come close and is dropping in every sample with no appreciable efforts that would indicate any change. Basically, they have given up polling because there is no need.

    Why do you think JD can’t raise money, has gotten few endorsements, and is basically running on bluster?

    He is unelectable and people know it.

    Not only is it true Arizona can’t afford JD, plainly put the majority of voters just don’t want him.

    If your debate tirade is all you’ve got, and it seems to be your cause du jour, it is weaker than JD’s polling numbers. Standard election formula if you are the unfunded underdog…#1 is to demand debates. How else can you get any attention or hope to get your message to the voters? If the opponent doesn’t bite…#2, call them out on it. Maybe you can get some press or even get them to agree. If you have no message or record to speak of…#3 stick to the debate demand. Hey, it’s all you’ve got, so use it!

    My guess is JD will attack, attack, attack. He will be sure to try and keep the attention off of his poor record, bad decisions, and all the other stuff the voters have used to measure his candidacy and rejected it.

  4. Honestly I’m not that impressed with either of them. The campaigning has been negative from both sides. The only positive campaigning has been about the border and most Arizonans are smart enough to see that the incumbent hasn’t really “been there” for them on that issue until now, just before a contested primary.

    Should McCain and Glassman win their respective primaries, since both of them are refusing to debate, will they then refuse to debate each other?

  5. catsclaw says

    Wow! I am going to continue to support JD in spite of all this negativity. I am so sick of the mantra – he cannot win the general. I for one will not follow this line and will vote in the primary for the man I believe best fits my beliefs. As for Abramoff, JD was exonerated by Justice, and Simcox’s problems are his own. McCain has connections with folks (who is that fundraiser, again?) with murky pasts and let’s not forget Keating.

  6. McCain seems to be spending a lot of money against a “no win” opponent. I wish he and his staff spent as much time, or 50% even, when they were running for president attacking the other guy. I guess staff were do busy with their lobbyist clients.

  7. The McCain people are going for the inevitability angle now, just like Hilary Clinton did.

    They don’t want to tell you that the moment JD launches the air war and exposes McCain for actually being the author of Amnesty legislation that this campaign will be flipped on its head.

    Until then, say July 10th ish we will continue to have to hear ridiculous attacks that are McCain’s attempt to throw things against the wall and see what sticks.

    Simple fact, any incumbent under 50 in his re-elect is vulnerable. McCain is vulnerable. This is the year of insurgent and impossible candidates and campaigns.

    Scott Brown won’t be the only upset of the year.

  8. martin sepulveda says

    I congratulate the Sonoran Alliance on their analysis. The fact of the matter is that Mr. Hayworth has no record when it comes our military, larger issues relating to national and international affairs and perhaps most important to Arizona; border security.

  9. Considering he supposedly has this one in the bag, I sure am getting a lot of mailers and hearing a lot of ads from McAmnesty. Rasmussen himself has pointed out there are a lot of similarities in the polling of this race and of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary where Specter was just kicked out although he had a small but statistically significant lead during most of the campaign.

  10. Michael Holliday says

    JD Hayworth is the right man at the right time!

    Arizonans are sick of McCain and he’s about to lose even more ground!

    The handwriting is on the wall!

    JD will fight for Arizona and Arizona will fight for JD.

    The polls are a bunch of gibberish!

    Don’t believe Big Brother…

    “Push the envelope…watch it bend!”

  11. ………………
    Bob Says:
    June 12th, 2010 at 8:09 am

    Should McCain and Glassman win their respective primaries, since both of them are refusing to debate, will they then refuse to debate each other?
    ……………….

    Ha ha!

  12. Let’s put this into perspective.

    John McCain has represented Arizona in the Senate for 24 years. He struggles to get above 50% in the polls. He has not resorted to two tactics:

    1. Become a “Convenient” conservative in order to fool the voters about his VOTING RECORD which has been anything but conservative!

    2. Going negative on JD Hayworth.

    This is the year for conservatives and Tea Party candidates. We are seeing it across the nation in election after election. You cannot dispute that.

    John McCain’s strategy is to play this conservative karaoke and hope that he can fool enough voters to win the Primary.

    Fortunately, Tea Party leaders are NOT falling for this political charade by McCain.

    Tea Party leaders are also waking up to the fact that Jim Deakin cannot win and is a spoiler. They are abandoning his crusade and signing on board with JD Hayworth. Tea Party leaders are also organizing PAC’s and 527’s to make an endorsement of JD Hayworth.

    John McCain may have A LOT of money but money cannot buy him out of this defeat this time.

    Rodney Glassman or any of the other Democrats cannot win in 2010. Again, this is a year where Democrats are in the doghouse with voters. The Independents have swung dramatically right of center this year and will set the outcome. Many of these are former Republicans who left the party over a lack of conservative discipline.

    Glassman has very little name ID in Maricopa County and when the voters find out – and they are – that he is a trust fund baby/opportunist, that will not sit well.

    JD is well known across Maricopa County because he happened to be on the radio for several years. Maricopa happens to have the most voters in the State. JD also represented a chunk of Arizona north of the Gila River.

    McCain is spending money cherry picking the voting record while he conveniently avoids his true record.

    The dirty little secret here in Arizona is that John McCain plays the role of voting against important legislation while Jon Kyl votes for the legislation. Arizona still benefits and Jon McCain makes himself look like he’s tough.

    If you reelect this 73-year old man, you will get what we have all been fighting against for years – a good old boys club that does not know how, nor wants to change their ways.

    If you think McCain has been against conservatives in the past, give him one more “lame duck” term and watch what real damage he does in the Senate.

    One final note. I have been very accepting of allowing John McCain supporters post here in Sonoran Alliance. I have promised them I will NOT reveal their identities and I will keep my word on that. Some of my friends are asking me why I allow them to post here. My response is that this blog is a forum to discuss these candidates and issues. If they post something, they must be willing to defend it.

    So now I turn the question on the McCain supporters. Would they be willing to have Sonoran Alliance writers contribute to their blog AND allow our writers the same anonymity?

  13. The “color” guys have just blown all conventional wisdom out of the water.

    Brown and Greene.

    Brown handily won against establishment lock “Kennedy Seat” with hardly more than a few weeks to get his name out and campaign. The model of 100% focus, he wore a brown coat every time he stepped outside. Brown, brown coat, drive a pickup.

    Greene has a green campaign flyer and his name was first on the ballot. Seems that’s all he needed to win since he didn’t even campaign. Apart from the filing fee, it doesn’t look like he spent more than $25 – that would be photocopies of his green flyer. Not sure if he owns a car, much less drives on.

  14. Michael Holliday says

    Hanoi Ann said:

    “Why do you think JD can’t raise money, has gotten few endorsements, and is basically running on bluster?:

    Dear Hanoi Ann:

    McCain is fiddling while Arizona burns!

    Just wait until JD turns up the heat by shedding light on John’s Guest Worker/Amnesty fiasco.

    John McCain’s “endorsements” can also work against him.

    Getting an endorsement from a “politician” in the face of a massive sea change in public sentiment against “politics as usual” is like getting a drivers license from Cracker Jax: Who gives a flying dang?

    Watch and learn…

  15. No McCain says

    Wow! McCain must have some bad internal polling!

  16. Shane,
    You might consider that in the search machines, the article title and author are listed, PLUS the first line of the first comment.
    Take a look at the first lines of comments and who posted them and what was put for their first six – seven words. It’s one thing to post opposing opinions, it’s another to employ a cheap little sabotage to undermine public perception of other people’s opinions AND the credibility of the blog itself.

  17. Saddlemaker says

    Mr. Holliday,
    Are you sure you wish to disgrace yourself and JD supporters in general by calling someone “Hanoi Ann”?

  18. And all these glorious statistics are why McCain has had to open six campaign offices? I smell a rat.

  19. Glassman = A**man says

    Glassman is a blowhard trust fund baby and will never win the Dems nod.
    I am surprised anyone, besides A**man himself would give him that much attention. Molly the Pitcher needs to take the season off

  20. Shane and I have agreed to disagree on this race. I respect his allowance of my posts and appreciate the opportunity.

    Whatever your opinion of me, Shane, or the candidates…one thing is certain. The First Amendment is alive and well on SA.

  21. Yes, a cold day in Hell when I vote for McCain…..period!

    We deserve what we ask for — McShame supporters need to go back to their own blogs…or give Shane access to theirs….

    Too bad the First Amendment isn’t alive and well on other blogs….

  22. Jack Hammer says

    Hey Double Ditz:

    I notice you taking J.D.to the woods on several issues involving spending and scandals!

    Have you ever checked McCain’s records over twenty eight years on these matters!

    It appears that you’re swimming in a sewer honey!

  23. Molly Pitcher,
    Here’s the deal..
    I’ll be voting for Hayworth in the primary.

    If McCain wins the primary, I’ll be voting for Glassman.

    ** I’d rather have an obvious enemy in the seat than someone like McCain, a viper who has betrayed those of us living on the border.**

    Only members of the Open Borders Mafia support McCain, who plays footsie with Napolitano, and TURNS HIS BACK on Border Patrol agents!!

    Border Security = National Security.. and McCain receives an F- on that!! NO MORE BS from McCain on how “tough” he is on national security. Mr. McCain, YOU LIE!!

  24. JD Fanatic says

    Good post CWren. I will say directly what we all think. We hate McCain so much we would rather see our country destroyed than vote for him.

  25. To the poster #25:
    A) Your moniker is wrong. You are really “Juan, the McCaniac” and we all know it.

    B) The Republican machine is full of slow learners… as you show by your posts.

    C) You can’t dispute anything I’ve said… so SMILE… YOU may be helping elect Glassman!!

  26. I agree with CWren. JD Fanatic, I would argue that McShame is the one ruining the country. At least we can overturn Obamacare and reverse the spending spree that he started along with Bush. McCain’s shamnesty program is not reversible, it WILL ruin the country if passed. While the McCampaign has done a good job of pointing out that JD isn’t as much of a fiscal hawk as I’d like him to be, ignoring his support for a $800 billion TARP & $2.6 trillion amnesty dwarfs Hayworth supposedly voting for $70 billion in earmarks over a 12 year congressional career. Even taking the liar’s word for JD’s record, he would have to be in congress for nearly 600 years to do as much harm as McShame has done with support of those two programs.

  27. …and of course, we aren’t the only ones McCain has betrayed…

    “John McCain, who has risen to political prominence on his image as a Vietnam POW war hero, has, inexplicably, worked very hard to hide from the public stunning information about American prisoners in Vietnam who, unlike him, didn’t return home. Throughout his Senate career, McCain has quietly sponsored and pushed into federal law a set of prohibitions that keep the most revealing information about these men buried as classified documents. Thus the war hero who people would logically imagine as a determined crusader for the interests of POWs and their families became instead the strange champion of hiding the evidence and closing the books.”

    http://www.nationinstitute.org/p/schanberg09182008pt1

    The author has a Pulitzer Prize, among his many other awards. The movie “The Killing Fields” is based on one of his books.

  28. Stephen Kohut says

    Dear McCainiacs Ann, Molly & DDL,

    Your little group of RINOs has done zero to refute what I posted. Incumbants with a safe lead in a contested primary DO NOT agree to debate because there is no upside for them. It is nothing but risk if they have a safe lead. For 2 months the McCain Campaign refused to accept the debate request issued by Marty Hermanson, PCRC chairman, while both challengers accepted. A month ago the Pinal PCs, GOP Club members and Tea Partiers started hammering Michelle Schmidt, McCain’s campaign schedule, on this issue. There has not been new public polling date for 4 weeks. McCain changes out his campaign management staff. On Wednesday, June 9, the AZ GOP notifies the Deakin and Hayworth campaigns that out of the blue and after refusing to commit to any debates the McCain campaign will now debate. So McCainiacs, WHY? Why accept a debate you do not need if you have a safe lead? WHY? Let’s hear an answer with a shred of sense.

  29. I will NEVER vote for McCain! He will give us amnesty , cozy up to Obama again. He is NOT a Conservative. He’ll vote for Cap & Tax and support the Global warming scam. I will vote for JD – even as a write in! If McCain has it in the bag, then why is he spending so much money??? Sounds to me he is scared & knows he is weak. He won’t even debate JD – why?? If he’s our “first line of defense”. Hey how about that TARP vote – billions wasted. He has attacked our free speech with McCian-Feingold, is against Gun Rights, wants to regulate our vitamins, the list goes on & on. Wake up AZ – if McCain gets back into office – he’ll stab us in the back like he’s done for so many years. Remember McCain standing with Napolitano fighting against Prop 200!!! Wake up AZ! Vote JD in August!!!

  30. Carl Hay says

    Once again Molly attacks conservatives.

    She would have us believe that conservatives can not win elections and we must simply give up.

    Well, its not going to happen.

    As another poster aptly pointed out, more than two months prior to the special election for the Senate in Massachusetts, no one gave Sen. Brown a chance.

  31. 3 things….

    1: If Senator Brown were running in Arizona, Lyle Tuttle and Rob Haney would have his hide! He is pro-choice, voted with Dems, and is hardly one to pass the purity test.

    Go on and use him as the test case.

    2: To the point of why McCain is working so hard.

    Why does Coke continue to advertise? They hold the #1 spot in colas and have for years. They are recognized everywhere. Why spend the money or the time? Why sponsor events and work in communities? Because if you do not keep on top of the market, front and center, you lose ground. A campaign is no different. Likewise if you don’t have any marketing or if your message is don’t drink that brand it sucks try me…you never gain ground. And especially if your brand has left a bad taste in people’s mouths already…it is hard to get past that history. A few people will love your brand, be very loyal, but sooner or later that is just not enough to sustain your existence and…poof!

    3: For all of you who say you will vote for the Dem before McCain…you are hypocrites. What about the castigation of the McCain ad where the woman says “We unelected JD”. She never says SHE voted for Mitchell only pointing out that the voters rejected JD. That ad was torn apart on here but now you profess to do the same thing. Your righteous indignation does not negate your hypocrisy.

  32. Blue Meanie says

    I just want to clear up a point made by Ann (bitter-smith) about voting for a dem over mccain. Voting for McCain IS voting for a dem. If a dem is your only choice, vote for the one less damaging to the Country. McCain has already proved he supports the decay. TARP, McCain/Feingold, McAmnesty and Keating are only some examples.

    I changed party’s to vote against McCain. If I am forced to vote for Glassman I will. Friends don’t let friends vote McCain!

  33. Here’s a question that I hope gets to the heart of this race.

    If John McCain has this locked up and Team McCain assert that JD Hayworth cannot win, then why has Team McCain spent over $6 MILLION in advertising largely to go negative on JD?

  34. Hmmm, Scott Brown, fine example. He get’s voted in to slow down the Obama agenda and next thing you know he’s the vote that allows a wasteful jobs bill, that we have to borrow money from China to fund, to pass. If I lived in taxachusets I would be regretting my vote for him just as I regretted voting for McAmnesty in 2008 and still feel dirty over that vote even though Obama has been every bit as bad as I feared him to be.

  35. Er Ann!

    Wasn’t it John McCain who was in negotiations with then Dem Senate Leader, Tom Daschle to switch parties?

    Wasn’t “The John” seeking a spot on Kerry’s ticket in 2004?

    And isn’t it a fact that the Dems never throw any meaningful opposition at McCain when he runs for re-election?

    And isn’t it telling the “Republicans for Napolitano” were almost to a man, McCain supporters and activists?

    And given your ties to Phil Gordon, the last thing we need is a “loyalty” lecture!

  36. McCain voted to confirm Napolitano – who is a disgrace & has no business being the head of Homeland Security. McCain voted to confirm terrorist loving Eric Holder for Attorney General. This is the man we are suppose to vote for? I think not!

  37. Stephen Kohut says

    DSW,

    Notice that the McCainiacs are refusing to answer my post.

    “WHY? Why accept a debate you do not need if you have a safe lead? WHY? Let’s hear an answer with a shred of sense.”

    Jeff Vath, Horst Kraus, Ann, DDL, Molly, …. every single one of the McCain bloggers are dead silent and refusing to answer why an incumbant in a contested primary with a claimed safe lead suddenly agrees to multiple debates.

    Come on boys and girls. Fess up. Either the internal polling sucks and/or a month of pressure by the grassroot got to the old boy. Which one of you wants to answer the question or are you all going to go off whimpering into the night?

  38. Tom Dodson says

    I have lived in Arizona and been politically active for over 20 years. McCain makes me sick with his preaching to the conservatives who call him to the carpet for his expensive liberal co-op with liberals Democrats. He showed up to debate Obama because they had nothing to disagree on. Different story if he had the stones to show up for a debate with JD. i have not voted for and undervoted McCain for a long time over his pathetic record. His staff are all ex democrats and his supporters are mostly uninformed and can tell you little more about his record than he served in Viet Nam. While honorable forty years ago, it’s Not good enough to make up for his record in Congress Senate and now while his pal “who would be a fine President” Barry Soetoro with his henchmen Reid and Pelosi are steamrolling over everything we hold dear and spending us into ridiculous debt. We need a serious wake up call and retire this backstabbing RINO for good.

  39. Pamela Mills says

    McCain’s voting record over the last decades shows everyone how liberal he is. He is the maverick he used to tout himself as – he votes for what makes him feel good and what brings him name-recognition. He cares little for the people of Arizona. The border is our biggest issue – it brings violence, drugs, loss of jobs, and financial hardship to our state and country. We cannot afford McCain at a time we need someone to stand up for Arizona. I’ll be voting for JD!

  40. Jack Hammer says

    Tom

    Methinks the “Manchurian Candidate” will ascend to “The Stalag in the Sky” on August 24th!

    And intellectually honest Arizonans will furnish the impetus!

  41. In this primary the issues REALLY matter. JD has entered the race because he/we are all fed up with how we have been mis-represented by McCain, especially the last 15 years or so. Have you all noticed how McCain AVOIDS the issues and is into character assassination instead??? He seems to be fiscally disabled – bragging about how he has fought earmarks (not true) where a few hundred million dollars are involved and then forgetting to mention that he has proposed Cap and Trade legislation several times that will cost 2.7 TRILLION dollars. Millions – Trillions, he seems to think we are stupid enough to forget. He has voted AGAINST drilling in a tiny, tiny prospect in ANWAR because he “did not want to upset a pristine wildlife refuge” when the drilling site was flat, frozen tundra above the Artic Circle and more than 150 miles from the nearest vegetation. We watch as he lies and distorts his way through his campaign in one desperate gasp after another. He is behaving like a pitiful, angry, desperate little loser. CONSERVATIVES have been keeping score and we are ready for a change. The era of McCain is over, thankfully so. JD will be a very refreshing, conservative Senator FOR Arizona. Contribute and volunteer for JD.

  42. THis is great news! I don’t know why you people ever backed JD. We voted him out for a reason.

  43. I was pretty surprised that Arizona was riding the JD wave for the short time they did. JD is a HORRIBLE candidate for us, he ruined us last time he was in Congress, he has not changed, he is ridden with filthy unethical flaws and he has no positive attributes to add to his resume. Let us just keep that guy away from Washington.

  44. I see he Open-Borders-Anti-National-Security McCaniacs have been out in force.

  45. AT LEAST MCCAIN HAS A BRAIN! JD is probably the dumbest candidate I have ever listened to. JD is just too dumb to go to return to Congress, no matter what you think of McCain.

  46. I’m just so happy to finally see that you admit it.

  47. I wonder what JD would score on the wonderlic test? Do you think he would top a ten?

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