New poll results on Governor’s race and U.S. Senate.

     The Cronkite-Eight poll is out with new numbers. Senator Jon Kyl has a convincing lead over Jim Pederson, 46% to 36%. 

     Things are less positive for the Republicans in the Gubernatorial race. There Don Goldwater is the best of the field but still gets smashed by Janet, 27% to 62%. 

     The amazing part is that according to the poll Len Munsil and Mike Harris do exactly the same against Janet, 23% to 62%. Gary Tupper’s message of moderation performs the worst against Janet at 20% to 62%. 

     There is no poll question about a direct match up in the Republican primary for Governor. 

     The really tough part is that Napolitano is far above 50%. The one ray of hope for the Republicans is the answers about issues relating to illegal immigration. The final question for the poll is about the marriage amendment. Arizona is looking pretty tolerant of gay marriage at this point.

(Posted 8:30 pm on August 29th for those of you keeping track of which blog covered this story first.) covers the Prop 107 issue in more depth, including a part of the poll not posted on the web site.


  1. District 8 Goldwater supporter says

    What’s up with you “movement conservatives”?

    Merrill’s polling results don’t look good for any of the Republican candidates. But what do you expect . . . all the A-List candidates saw the writing on the wall months ago. You can’t beat Janet in ’06. All her planets must be in alighment.

    And my thoughts on the Marriage Amendment . . . maybe Nathan needs to pay people to vote for the amendment. Paying people worked to get the “grassroots” amendment on the ballot. I’m convinced that if you pay ’em enough you could probably get Arizona voters to vote for anything.

  2. D. Saguaro says

    Sorry, bud. The sample was faulty by using a statistically over-represented number of Democrats. This is Merrill, working as Janet’s pollster, trying to create an aura of victory. Better be careful, though, if Dems are left believing they have it in the bag, they might stay home.

  3. Oro Valley Dad says

    Was the Rocky Mountain Poll from July 27, 2006 also faulty? (They had Janet beating Don 57% to 28%.) Was the WSJ poll flawed with Janet over Don 50% to 39%.

    Obviously no poll is perfect but several polls are saying the same thing. Janet will be very tough to beat on November. That does not mean that we do not want that to happen, just that we are under no illusions.

  4. Cactus Wren says

    Of course Janet is ahead. But not by 35 to 40 points. She is somewhere between 15 and 20 ahead against Goldwater or Munsil, according to Rasmussen and Zogby. That will be tough to overcome, but not impossible. Merrill and DeBerge — both confirmed libs – want Republicans to think it is impossible.

  5. District 8 Goldwater supporter says

    Merrill’s a lib? If I remember right, I think I heard Merrill say he went to BYU and is an active Mormon. I can honestly say I have never met a Mormon lib.

    And if Cactus Wren is right about the Zogby poll are we correct to believe that Pederson is within 4 points of Kyl, which makes it a statistical dead heat. Merrill had a much wider Senate spread,

    You can’t say Merrill is wrong on the Guv’s race but right on the Senate one.

  6. There are quite a few Mormon libs, just not a majority.

    Does the name Harry Reid ring a bell?

    Not sure if that means that Merril is pitching for Janet though.

  7. RINOspotter says

    I don’t know if ASU’s Merrill is a Mormon (probably irrelevant) but, for the record, his Ph.D. is from the U. of Michigan.

    The Cronkite School is a hotbed of liberalism, plain and simple, just like most university programs these days. If Merrill didn’t follow the party line, ASU would have found some way to have dumped him long ago. He also has a reputation of being Janet’s Pollster, always showing her with the highest percentages.

    C’mon this is an academic! Besides, do you actually think Michael Crow of ASU wants to deal with Munsil or even Goldwater in the future?

  8. Totally off topic, but I’m liberal, so what do I know?

    Anyway, a guy on my blog scolded me for refering to you guys as “wags,” a term I don’t find offensive especially since I refer to friends of mine that way all the time. If you guys do, please tell me.

    He also pointed out to me that I didn’t link y’all. Well, that’s been taking care of.

    Have a good day. Yes, I love Janet’s poll numbers, but Jim’s are obviously due to faulty, biased polling.

  9. It’s still too early regarding the gubernatorial race. The voters are not really focused as of August 30th which means you can count on things tightening up for the Primary within a week.

    What I’m curious about is why I have not seen any campaign commercials for statewide primary candidates. If I had $500K, I would have budgeted a significant amount of that money for television and radio once early voting begins. I haven’t seen anything as of the end of August. Are these guys waiting to pull the trigger or what?

  10. District 8 Goldwater supporter says

    Good point shane….But the only two that have $500K are Len and Janet. Don has turned in his money to Clean Elections but hasn’t received his check for $453,849. I suspect we will see lots of TV and radio from Don’s campaign in the next two weeks. Len is probably figuring he can spend his money communicating under the radar to his CAP Rolodex and mailihng out a Half Truth hit piece on Goldwater. I’m sure Nathan and Constantine and Chris Baker have a plan. We’ll see if it worked two weeks from today.

  11. Sonoran Truth Squad says

    Why is District 8 Goldwater Supporters name District 8 Goldwater Supporter?

    When your name is a lie, why are we supposed to believe anything you write?

  12. Sean Noble, John Shadegg’s chief of staff, is managing Munsil’s campaign. Querard and Baker have no connection, and Nathan Sproul is simply a consultant.

    Also, every statement in Munsil’s mailer regarding Goldwater is 100% true. He has a 20 year track record of integrity, and a mailer exposing Goldwater’s flip flops and lack of experience is NOT a hit piece.

  13. Oro Valley Dad says

    Simply a consultant? More like a traitor. Munsil pays Nathan about $6,000 a month and so Sproul can turn around and endorse Carolyn Allen. Please. Who is a flip-flopper now?

  14. Point of clarification: I know for sure that Constantin Querard and Chris Baker are NOT involved with Len’s campaign. Nathan is consulting for the committee while I believe Mike Bailey is managing it.

    I have to wonder if Goldwater will find media production people in time to put together ads. Also, ad time is being bought up pretty quick so whoever makes the buys will have the advantage of displacement.

  15. Thank you “Josh.” I stand corrected. Sean Noble is the manager for Len Munsil. Truthfully, I like Sean and I have a lot of respect for him. However, time is running out and every politically astute person I know is wondering what’s going on with the ad campaigns. I can see excusing a single uncontested primary candidate like Bill Montgomery but when you’re in a 3-4-way race, TV and radio are your best friends in the final days. If they got the money, they should be spending it because whatever they have left will have to go back to the State of Arizona anyway.

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