McCain only 9 point ahead of Obama in AZ

When we last covered the poll numbers McCain was 22% above Obama. In the latest Cronkite-Eight Poll McCain is now only ahead of Obama 47% to 38%. McCain still has a comfortable lead over Clinton, 53% to 37% in Arizona.


  1. And that’s during a contested primary, and after the Arugula-gate and Angry Black Guy-gate. The media hasn’t even BEGUN to train its guns on McCain.

    Everyone says McCain is going to have long coattails. I say Obama is going to have long ones here in AZ, enough to help Gabby and whoever gets the Dem nod in CD 1, and probably even Harry Mitchell.

  2. Antifederalist says

    You may be right, not that I really want you to be. I wish Rs had a better candidate than McLame and I wish Rs were pumped. The RNCC and the RNSC are in trouble because they just can’t raise the funds to defend all the open seats. There was a story not too long ago about the RNCC firing its entire telephone fund-raising staff because it just couldn’t raise funds and an even more recent story in CQ about the Dems most likely picking up 2 to 8 Senate seats due to a lack of R funding. Rank-and-file Republicans are still mad as heck at the direction of the party (decidedly left thanks to myopic moderates). Now, money is NOT EVERYTHING in an election, contrary to what that utter dolt McLame thinks, but it certainly doesn’t hurt to have piles of cash. Combine a lack of cash with righteously angry conservatives, the world’s worst nominee, and energized Dem base with candidates with more cash…there can be only one result: disaster for the Rs this election cycle, up and down the ticket. Obama WILL have long coattails, but it will not be ENTIRELY his doing. Some of it will be due to angry conservatives.

    On the other hand…what was it Mark Twain said about statistics? Some polls have been markedly wrong this primary season, and we have to keep in mind the margin of error…even then, I don’t think my analysis about conservatives and money is off…but I’m human, flawed, and I can be wrong. Still, one state does not an electoral college win make. I guess that McLame polls poorly here because we KNOW what a slimeball he really is. Voters in other states are most likely blissfully ignorant of McLame’s PROVEN track record or are choosing, like me, to vote for 3rd party candidates.

  3. Antifed,

    As for the left being energized – we’ve never been more so. Everyone I know is beyond mobilized.

    An interesting apocryphal game for you all: Keep count of bumper stickers. Here in Scottsdale, it’s running 4-1 Obama-McCain. Add in all the non-candidate specific stickers, and it’s running about 10-2.

    I was amused yesterday, I saw no McCain stickers, but I did see a Romney.

    The face of AZ politics is changing, people. And not just AZ, the West. Just because people are moving from New York and Pennsylvania to Arizona and Montana, doesn’t mean they’re leaving the arugula behind.

  4. SonoranSam says

    Neither party can take anything for granted. Arizona Republicans may have their challenges, but they still hold a sizeable registration edge.

    Democrats are busily forming circular firing squads. And to my R friends, let me tell ya: you’ve got nothing over the Dems when it comes to disorganization. Trust me on that.

    The truth is, Arizona is a red state with purple tendencies. This is a three-party state, with registered independents holding the deciding edge.

    And there’s a reason why we independents aren’t a member of either party.

    If you want our vote you’ve got to earn it.

  5. Where is the master list of State Delegates? Why is it the McCain campaign ONLY is being allowed to build their slate (unity slate) based on the AZGOP State Delegates master list? McCain has to stoop to these low tactics to avoid a black eye in his home state? McCainiacs, where’s your confidence in your great guy? You are angering too many Arizona Republicans with your hiding of the State Delegates list. What happened to the notions of fair debate, open elections and free speech for everyone?

  6. GOP Boomer Gal says


    MC Cain is the Republican nominee. Get over it, or vote for a RAT

  7. The polls cited were two separate polls, by different polling companies, different questions, and different target population. There is no “now only ahead by” margin, since it is disparate pools and polls.

    In the ASU poll which is the new one cited in this post, he is showing stronger than in February:
    “ Although a Cronkite/Eight poll in February found that voters believed that Obama likely would beat McCain in November, the new poll found that voters now think that McCain would defeat Obama 44 percent to 34 percent in the presidential election.”

  8. Fooled Thrice says

    GOP Boomer, Can’t argue with you there. Still can’t square building the unity slate while denying voting information to inquiring Republicans. Voting is supposed to be the one thing we accomplish flawlessly. How about a list of the voters and a list of the candidates issued simultaneously to all concerned? Woops, too late for the that. The unity slate already exists.

  9. Hey Thrice, you get your copy of the list yet? Or are you the last person in Arizona not to have it? Put down your kleenex box, walk to the other side of your trailer, and check your inbox. The whole world has this thing!

    I can’t tell if your name is on it. Was CryBaby your full name or just your last name?

  10. Alright John, I suspect that everyone has this thing now, so let’s take it easy on the rest of these folks for now. If they start complaining again in the days to come, you can whack away. Otherwise, let’s assume the best and figure that everyone has it already.

  11. kralmajales says

    The closer those numbers get, the worse it is for Bee, Ogsbury (et. al.), Hay, and Shaddegg.

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