McCain’s comeback.

Or should we say his dead-cat-bounce. After winning the debate in New Hampshire, according to many reports, McCain has moved into a tenuous third place.

http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2007-09/32481597.pdf

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/09/gop_debate_wrapup_frontrunners.html


Comments

  1. This is interesting. Obviously, the important numbers are in Iowa and NH for the candidates, but the national polls and picture can sometimes influence the picture in individual states. What is really interesting here is that when Thompson is in the race, the support for Romney dives dives divers. They may be splitting traditional conservatives on the right and leaving two things:

    Giuliani a real chance at winning early primaries with a split vote of conservatives across Thompson and Romney. This assumes, of course, that they have similar supporters backing them…and I think they do.

    and

    Some kind of hope and prayer for McCain who might squeeze back in as people split their loyalties deeper and deeper between yet another candidate in the mix.

    Thoughts?

  2. nightcrawler says

    Kral,

    There maybe some truth to that theory. Thompson unwittingly provides cover for both McCain and Giuliani. Conservatives need to rally behind either Thompson or Romney lest both candidates cancel each other out in the primaries. Personally, I believe Romney is the stronger of the two.

  3. I think Romney is stronger in finances, ties to business, and has a better organization built in Iowa and NH…definitely. Nationally, not sure…but still stronger than Thompson. Yeah…Romney was number 2 to Giuliani nationally until Thompson stepped in…then he drops dramatically. If Thompson ramps it up in Iowa and NH…he will indeed split conservatives away from Romney and will probably do better in the south than Romney. To Southernors, Romney is still a gov. of a blue state with a fairly liberal record. Then there is the issue of whether some Christians will be put off by the mormon issue (sad, but true to some extent). If conservatives don’t get behind one or the other, then I see it looking pretty bad for anyone other than Giuliani.

    All this is why the Romney campaign in South Carolina put out an anonymous hit webpage on Fred. They know who the competition is.

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