Lord Needs Help From On High

The latest FEC reports should put to rest any of the speculation that Bob Lord will be competitive against Congressman John Shadegg in CD 3.

Lord garnered attention early in the year when he filed with just over $120,000 for the first quarter, while Shadegg filed just $19,000.  Obviously, Shadegg was not expecting an early challenge, but quickly bounced back, raising a whopping $312,000 and ending the 2nd quarter with $50,000 more cash-on-hand than Lord.

Now, the year-end reports paint a very clear picture:  Bob Lord doesn’t have a chance in hell (or in heaven) to beat John Shadegg.

Shadegg raised a stunning $495,000 in the fourth quarter – more than any other candidate in the state when you subtract any personal candidate money loaned (ie, Schweikert).  Lord, with a top-tier fundraising event in D.C. with the DCCC Chairman and with a major event with Governor Janet Napolitano during the fourth quarter managed to only scrape together $211,000.  When an incumbent – and a popular one at that – ends the off-year with a $360,000 cash-on-hand advantage, turn the lights out, the party is over.

If anyone doubts the desperation of the Democrats in the face of the fundraising onslaught by Shadegg, just take a look at the attacks they have launched against him in the last two weeks.  They fed a bogus story to their in-house press operation (the Arizona Republic) attacking Shadegg’s ethics (a clear non-starter with anyone who has followed Shadegg’s career), filed a frivolous complaint with the FEC about the bogus allegation, attacked Shadegg’s contributors, attacked his vote against the stimulus package and then launched thousands of robocalls into his district to take that attack directly to voters.

Shadegg’s response was a good-natured jab at the Democrats, thanking them for communicating his position to voters in his district and suggesting that they may need to file an in-kind contribution with the FEC because it directly supports his re-election.

So, why all the attacks in the last two weeks?  The only explanation is that Shadegg’s campaign put out a press release in the middle of January reporting his huge fundraising quarter and announcing that he would be filing with an eye-popping $863,000 cash-on-hand.  When that got out, the choking sound down on Indian School was Bob Lord spitting up his morning coffee.  Democrat spinster, Emily Bitnner’s head was about to explode and the out-of-state-manager-that-beat-a-Pennsylvania-Republican-incumbent-who-strangled-his-mistress Drew Eldredge-Martin (what guy has a hyphenated last name?  Oh, I guess we have to ask Jeff Hatch-Miller) realized that managing a campaign in 2006 against a weak Republican incumbent who HAD POLICE CHARGES FILED AGAINST HIM (and still only lost by a smallish margin), was very different than coming into Arizona and trying to manage the campaign of a little-known leftist Democrat against a popular incumbent in a very safe Republican seat.  Essentially, they went into full panic mode and the mudfest began.

Bottom line?  In Presidential year, in a district that gave Bush 58% of the vote in 2004 and Shadegg nearly 60% of the vote in 2006, this district is staying deep red.  But there will be plenty of mud to clean off as the Democrats try to keep up the facade of a real race.


Comments

  1. kralmajales says

    Great post. So would you agree that Giffords having over a million dollar advantage over her challenger makes Bee dead in the water?

    Lord is down $300k…yes…Bee is down a well over a million.

  2. Thanks for reminding me to send another check to Bob Lord.

  3. kralmajales says

    hahaha me too.

  4. Scrupulous, exhumed says

    Who exactly benefits when R’s persuade the D’s to put all their money into races the D’s are guaranteed to lose? Good work, AZGOPInsider.

  5. kralmajales says

    Scrupulous,

    It works the other way also. Today I read a story about how the GOP nationally is having to defend an enormous number of retired seats. One is in Arizona (Renzi). They are having to do this with far less money raised too. And they are trying to hold seats…and they are trying to get them back.

    It is Giffords and Mitchell’s seat…as well as the nature of the times that make every dollar poured into Shaddegg’s seat (on the right) dangerous for the GOP. Note Bee’s horrifying low fundraising…and the fact that two challengers against Mitchell are going to fight it out hard.

  6. kralmajales says

    A bit more on the dough:

    I think you made the point well about incumbency advantage and how Shaddegg’s $1 mill raised and $800K on hand give him an advantage. That said, a challenger raising 60-70% as much (Lord raised over $600K and has $500K left) aint bad at all and is better than any challenger raised in CD 5 or CD 8 (especially when considering the $250K loans both GOP major challengers gave themselves).

    So, again, does that mean that both Mitchell and Giffords are going to be unstoppable too? Mitchell raised over $1 million last year and, like Shaddegg, has over $800K on hand. No GOP candidate comes close…even as close as Lord comes to Shaddegg.

    Giffords outraised Bee in both 3rd and 4th quarters (easily I might add), has $1.3K on hand and Bee sputters (at best) with a paltry $160K???

    Last, think CD 1 for a moment. Open seat, should be the place ya’ll will be really sinking your money and it has been a fantastically piddly start for the GOP. Ann Kirkpatrick, the Dem who looks like the nominee, has already raised $400K and has $292K on hand. No likely GOP challenger has come close.

    Things aren’t looking good. I think Dems hold 5 and 8, pick up 1, and have a shot at 3.

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