Latest Rasmussen: John McCain “potentially vulnerable”

The latest Rasmussen poll has been released and in the race for US Senator, John McCain holds a flat-lined lead. Rasmussen’s website reports the following:

“Any incumbent who earns less 50% support is considered potentially vulnerable, and McCain has been hovering around that mark all year. Since January, McCain’s support has fallen in a narrow 47% to 53% range.”

“The 2008 Republican presidential nominee cannot be comforted by the fact that his level of support in early primary polling is similar to the numbers for another veteran senator, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. Specter, ultimately defeated in the state’s Democratic Primary by Joe Sestak, led in just about all early polling but could never get much above the 50% level of support.”

Since the race began, John McCain has been able to rise above the necessary threshold to close the deal with Arizona voters. Other polls Rasmussen has conducted here in Arizona and across the country have also underestimated the intense effect of the Tea Party Movement. It is not until a primary election has taken place that the true mood of the voters has been revealed. Like Roberts in Utah and Specter in Pennsylvania, John McCain is likely to suffer the same demise. However, given the current trajectory, the protest candidate will likely affect the outcome of this election. The Tea Party Movement can have a real impact here in Arizona but it needs to move quickly in derailing the protest candidate and pronouncing its support for JD Hayworth.



  1. And J.D. is starting to “rev up”!

    If McCain can’t attain a high fifties level in a comprehensive poll, he’ll be toast.

    And self defeating tactics such as accusing one’s opponent of possessing one’s own pecadilloes is not going to “cut it”!

    Nor is avoiding personal contact or debate!

    All his actions prove that John is a major craator of the mess that is Washington and at bottom, he and his staff know it!

  2. I’m not sure that poll is even relevant anymore since it was done prior to the latest faux pas. JD is the joke du jour, a title he holds way too often.

    JD has not built momentum. He has no money. He has little support and his outside of Maricopa County significance is moderate at best.

    He is the Arizona poster child for anti-incumbency backlash, perceived political corruption, and voter rejection.

  3. We can’t send McCain back to Washington DC.
    He is part of the reason it is screwed up. Sure he talks all the Conservative keywords at election time, but it is all a bunch of lies. It is not what he really all about.

  4. And “Ann” as a supporter and contributer to McCain, Romley, Phil Gordon and Don Stapely is hardly in a position to know, or care about the GOP rank-and-file!

  5. Stephen Kohut says

    Any one in politics knows that an incumbent in a contested primary that consistently polls under 50% is in deep trouble. McCain did not agree to a minimum of two and possible three televised debates because he wanted to. His internal polling probably showed him to be very vulnerable.

  6. This just shows Deakin needs to get out. People can argue all they want but the overwhelming majority of the deakin supporters would support JD if Deakin was not in.

    So lets say 6 out of those 7% go to JD. That means its a 48-44 race with 8% undecided.

    Also over history people who are unsure or undecided break to the challenege by a 2 to 1 margin. So it would be like 5.5-2.5 breaking for JD. That would put the race at 50.5- 49.5 for McCain so literally within 1 point!!

    Its time for Deakin to go. He only hurts JD’s chances of beating McCain

  7. Stephen Kohut says


    The reason we vote in a contested primary is for the peopel to decide who they want. McCain is in the lead and his supporters could make the same claim about JD stepping out as you just made about Jim Deakin. If you want JD, vote for him. Each of us will make our own choices and we’ll know on 8/25 what the people’s choice is.

  8. John – Are you a Representative or a Law Maker? We have enough laws on the books we need a Representaive.

  9. OK folks, keep telling yourself that JD can win. Keep up the snarky, name calling of anyone who supports McCain based on your imaginary version of the truth. Go ahead and hang in there with your guy whose campaign has no hope of victory. You are symbolic of Team Hayworth.

    The negatives for JD more than DOUBLED in the last month. That was before his “Huckster” past surfaced. With no record to boast of only hide from, with donations dried up and stalled out, and a candidate who is a one trick pony….the total picture of what the numbers show for JD cannot be overcome. He has nothing to offer to rehabilitate his image…reality is not on his side.

    Contributors get that now even more than ever. In an act of last ditch desperation, I expect that JD will try to drop a heavy negative hit piece via mail as the early ballots are delivered. It is all he has.

    It won’t work.

    With the reality of who JD is, not the character he plays in public; high spending obstructive Congressman, lobbyist “for friends” for pay after, cheap infomercial pitchman for a bogus, fraudulent company, and the lingering questions about what he really did or didn’t do in the Abramoff scandal…it will be seen as desperate and finish him off creating disdain among voters for being taken for granted and betrayed.

    He will once again be the source of his own demise. But, true to form…that truth will be too much to accept and the blame will be cast onto others.

  10. I have no beef with McCain or anyone who supports him. I too was once a supporter of John McCain, but my support for him disappeared as he voted to bail out banks and steal money from my kids.

    My support dissapeared when he became Arizona’s last line of defense instead of Arizona’s first line of defense.

    My support left when he put fourth lies about JD’s lobbying, $10,000 a big sum of money, but yet his campaign staff have been lobbyist.

  11. Ann,

    I am curious as to what you think will happen when half the GOP electorate doesnt vote for McCain.

    I am not saying JD wins, I am saying the 36% JD supporters 7% Deakin and of the 8% undecided in the poll lets says half go to mccain and half go to the other… So that means 47% do NOT vote for McCain… These are people who are NOT choosing candidates by who they think are similar policy wise.

    Deakin, JD and McCain are not even in the same universe politically. When one of them comes out on top (most likely McCain) Will those 47% leave their senate votes blank on the ballot when they vote in November?

    If so you have to admit McCain is in trouble. Instead of running a negative campaign he should be running positive ads showing what he has done for AZ…. Oh wait he cant because he hasnt done anything…. His only non-attacking ad is about completing a fence he has not been able to get Congress to complete while being in the senate. Name me one accomplishment McCain has in the last 20 years, that was actually constitutional (so you cant cite McCain-Feingold).

  12. McCain would be polling better if there were not a conceted effort by the AZ GOP to unseat him.

    The Pullen/Haney team use their power and position to work against their own senior senator on a regular basis.

    Fortunately, their influence is limited to a small group of lunatics and the majority of voters will once again elect Senator McCain.

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