Is The Race For Party Chairman Already Over?

We doubt it, but Gila Courier got their hands on an interesting email that shines some light on the status of the contest.


Comments

  1. Goodyear GOP says

    That’s a big number. Even just the 300 is pretty darn big. I bet James could get 150 press releases out of that.

  2. Randy thinks I’m voting for him, but I’m not!

  3. The inference that this was some sort of inside Intel with a big secret is cute but obvious. The last time there was this big landslide predicted when it turned out to be only a 4 vote spread. This is using an old tactic to make others believe he is in the clear so he will stop losing votes. Campaign School 101.

    I have spoken to several people in the last few days who have said the same thing as Joe, real life state committeeman. The general attitude I am hearing is, who are they serving, a man or a party with a platform that must be defended and promoted?

    They are basing their vote on the facts not the smears or distortions. Evaluating the past two years against what it will take to get thru the next two; it isn’t a pretty picture if you think about it like that. When hit with the reality of how far we have fallen and how the Dems have risen; folks are getting it and understand leadership makes the difference.

    An issue I’ve heard in the northern counties, particularly CD 1, is they are very angry over the Rule 11 letter. It didn’t matter who the candidate was, their feelings are that they were betrayed by the current leadership who showed a lack of respect and abused his authority. Other non-Maricopa counties’ understand, it could be their turn next time. What is the use of a county system if the state is going to play the heavy hand and shut you out?

    Nope, not over at all. At least not that way.

  4. Mr. Conservative says

    Randy thinks I’m voting for him too…

  5. I’m voting for Randy.

  6. The race isn’t over yet and it will be close. My prediction is that there is a 95%+ chance the margin of victory will be less than 20 votes. I think Randy Pullen is likely to win – 58% to 42% odds of that. My guess is the Randy Pullen will win by 9 votes.

    Lisa James supporters such as Sean Noble (acting on behalf of himself and John Shadegg) have orchestrated significant gains in state committeemen voting for her in Maricopa County. That includes gains in LD6, LD7, LD8, and LD9 (with help from Bob Burns). LD11 has more James supporters than previously, but LD4 has more Pullen supporters than last year.

    Outside of Maricopa County, Pullen will do better than last time because of gains in legislative races and local races. If some people outside Maricopa County are thinking of changing their vote because of that phone message, then there is no real hope for the state party. People who will cut off their noses to spite their faces will make other bad decisions as well.

    However, because it is so close, it will depend on who turns out to vote in person or by proxy. The James people have an advantage here because they have more paid politicians to pick up proxies. Also, with a secret ballot, all promises and commitments must be taken with at least a grain of salt.

    As a Pullen supporter, I hope Randy wins by a large margin. I think he deserves it. He has done far more with less than Lisa James and company have done with substantial resources and without being sabotaged by Republicans who were more interested in making Randy look bad than trying to help the party win.

    Given all that, I have made my prediction. We’ll see what happens.

  7. Randy thinks I’m voting for him too…wait a second…oh, yeah, I am.

  8. The Rule 11 letter will hurt him big time in Yavapai and Coconino. We heard loud and clear from the candidates, especially Pearce and Tobin, that the state party didn’t do a darn thing to help them out.

  9. I think Randy is scared. No one shows their cards early. Not unless they thinks it is going to solidify those “undecided” voters. Desperate at best.

  10. Im not really in the loop on what is being said behind the scenes, but can anyone tell me if the Joel Fox / Arizonans for Public Safety scandal has been brought up at all?

    I hope so, that awful ad, and the funny money behind it, still really bothers me.

  11. It seems to me that Pullen will win handily, and that the James candidacy is just a continuation of the efforts of the Wake Up Arizona crowd to try to regain their lost influence in Arizona politics.

  12. nightcrawler says

    Good post Hunter. It will be the folks outside of Maricopa county and the proxy holders that hold the key to victory. Hopefully the proxy holders will honor the wishes of the voters, unlike what happened last time.

  13. To say that Pullen has released this positive info as a way to secure votes, is faulty logic. The opposite can happen with people not bothering to vote if they believe he is a shoo-in.

    I rely on Pullen just being honest, just as he has demonstrated.

  14. Goodyear GOP says

    AZGOP Gal writes “I think Randy is scared. No one shows their cards early. Not unless they thinks it is going to solidify those “undecided” voters. Desperate at best.”

    Yet its Lisa James who has posted daily updates of her supporters, showing her cards much, much earlier. So unless AZGOP Gal is just blowing smoke, AZGOP Gal thinks that Lisa James is VERY scared and VERY desperate.

    I’m betting on smoke though.

  15. Veritas Vincit says

    Joe, re: post #2… then that makes you a liar and dishonest correct? I wish I could appologize for that statement, but if the shoe fits pal, you know what they say.

    My bet is Pullen by less than 10 votes and a continued divided (unfortunately) party.

    This is one situation in which a parliamentarian system is to be envied where the party chairperson would have to have a coalition to form a government.

  16. GOPrognosticator says

    Are you kidding? The contest was over before it began. Lisa James didn’t announce until nearly half of the state committeemen were already elected. Maybe Lisa James shouldn’t have spent the election cycle campaiging against House/Senate GOP candidates and their workplace enforcement achievements. When she learns to serve our party, maybe she can have a bigger role in the party.

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