Huckabee & Obama!

Having talked with many of my conservative evangelical Christian friends for months, could it be that these traditional culturally conservative Christian voters have gone anti-establishment?

Huckabee appears to have captured that sentiment and may be on a national roll as middle-class voters are fed up with elitist establishment politics.

Here are the results:

Republicans:
Huckabee – 34%
Romney – 25%
Thompson – 13%
McCain – 13%

Democrats:
Obama – 38%
Edwards – 30%
Clinton – 29%
Richardson – 2%

Democratic Senator Chris Dodd has announced he will be dropping out.


Comments

  1. kralmajales says

    I think the answer to your question is a resounding “yes”.

    I think his win is amazing..given the money spent by Romney. My analysis is that it is good for John McCain too. Think ahead here. Huckabee seriously wounds Romney going into NH. McCain gains support and knocks out Romney in a state that he is expected to win (given that he is from the media market just to the south). Next is SC that pits Huckabee and evangelicals against John McCain who has the strong support of Lindsey Graham. It will be establishment there versus Christian conservatives…a major major thing going into the southern stronghold states.

    I think Huckabee’s win might split the GOP further from its traditional, establishment business base. I don’t see the business types warming to Huckabee. On one hand, too socially conservative…on the other…he has a fairly moderate record on welfare policies in Arkansas.

    Interesting.

  2. kralmajales says

    Oh…Obama…Clinton in third by a hair right now. People have to say it. A 7% victory over her in Iowa and John Edwards edging her is a MAJOR defeat for Senator Clinton. I think this gives Obama a big big amount of momentum to win NH…unless people reassess and come to Clinton’s aid. The only good thing for her is that Edwards and Obama are both still in the race…meaning the other than Hillary vote is still split…for now.

  3. It also appears that Iowans did not buy into Romney’s “conversion experience.”

    This clearly appears to be about overthrowing the establishment (whether Republican or Democrat)

  4. This is *awesome*. Rush tried to torpedo Huckabee and that accounted for exactly ZERO. I think the he’s going to have to break his rule and come off the bench, or he’s either going to have to support Huckabee or McCain in the general – and won’t that be fun. Which pro-illegal candidate will the conservatives support? Who’s going to fund the Department of Education more? Wow. Totally awesome.

    Thompson’s history. Even if he threw his support behind McCain, it would barely be enough to lift McCain over Romney.

    /gloat

  5. Klute,

    Fred is not out at least not yet, he was tied for 3rd in Iowa. I think you might see Rush oprah Fred.

    This is a big setback for Mrs Clinton.

  6. It’s just a matter of time. He’s the 2008 Tsongas. I think it’ll be interesting if Rush does come off the bench – it’ll either be his first step into irrelevancy or it’ll prove his power. My guess is the former.

    The GOP woke the evangelical genie, now it’s gotta get them back into the bottle, or Mike Gravel could be elected president.

    Listening to Rush now on Fox. Does he always fillibuster like this? I think he’s using the hearing loss as an excuse.

  7. I think Ann called it earlier
    1. Huckabee
    2. Romney
    3. Thompson
    4. McCain

    Thompson’s doing great, he’ll hang in there.

  8. Thompson never said he was playing by the rules set by others He is setting his own stage and understands the truth has a lot of power and when it is spoken, over and again, without change or corruption. Genuine dedication to a call will prevail.

    Klute,

    What do you make of the D’s?

  9. Wow, I really underestimated Thompson. I thought he’d be behind Paul, McCain, and Guiliani, just a little about Hunter.

    But, does this really translate into anything for Thompson? He’s not polling well in New Hampshire (behind McCain and Romney by A LOT) and his bronze momentum may die before South Carolina or Florida.

  10. Romney’s loss surprised me because I thought he closed better than Huckabee and had the better organization. However, I forgot the demographics of the Iowa GOP electorate. Evangelicals are a force in that state (Pat Roberston took second behind Bob Dole in 1988) and they carried the day for Huckabee. If he finishes a respectable third in New Hampshire, that will give him a sufficient boost to go on to South Carolina…where his current lovefest with McCain will abruptly end.

    The GOP battle will continue into Feb. 5, where I had thought that Romney’s money and the problems the others have would rule the day. Now, I’m not so sure. I want to see how he handles himself in the big debate on Saturday, which will clearly be the most-watched debate of the primary season up to now. He needs to give people a reason to be for him, not just reasons to oppose others.

    McCain’s strong finish in Iowa, which he barely contested, overshadows Thompson’s showing, which will not give him enough momentum going forward. It is too late for Fred and he joins Rudy as the two people whose early strategies will not propel them into Tsunami Tuesday. This is now a three-man race on the GOP side.

  11. Ann,

    To quote Mayor Quimby: I couldn’t have been more pleased with how that went.

    My candidate was Dodd, but since I’m the kiss of death for most gubenatorial and presidential candidates, his loss was assured (check my LJ for a full list).

    Obama is an amazing candidate – his victory speech was one of those chest-swelling, I’m-proud-to-be-an-American moments, even Rush seemed impressed. I’m cautiously optimistic about Obama’s chances. If he can pull off a string of victories, we could finally see an end to the Bush/Clinton axis (although Obama would have to defeat Jeb in 2012 – which as a ex-Floridian would be so gratifiying to watch).

    I wish Edwards would go away (and he probably will after So. Carolina – hopefully, he’ll send his votes/delegates Obama’s way).

  12. kralmajales says

    Klute,

    I was thinking the same thing last night about Rush and his attempt to torpedo Huckabee…he failed…and it is really interesting. Nice post.

  13. kralmajales says

    First off, I was wrong on one prediction so far. I thought Edwards would squeeze into first. It was my out on the limb prediction and flat out missed it. I thought that Obama’s support would not materialize well…and that is what the story has to be.

    Oh…on the path for Obama. Edwards hanging around is the only thing keeping Clinton alive. The polls show Clinton supporters and “other than Clinton”. Meaning that the 2nd choice of most Edwards supporters is Obama. As soon as he flattens, Obama gets stronger and stronger. I am betting that if he wins NH, even slightly, then his support will swell.

  14. Kralmajales,

    “I thought that Obama’s support would not materialize well…and that is what the story has to be.”

    That’s what I thought – I thought he’d be this year’s Howard Dean, happily I was wrong (although I sadly was right about Dodd-mania not running wild).

    I wish Edwards would pitch it in now – he’s got to know he has no chance, and if he wants to be kingmaker, the time is now – give Obama the momentum to run the board before Tsunami Tuesday.

    I’d love to listen to Rush today (boy, never thought I’d say that)… And I can imagine Ann Coulter’s already readying her “B. Hussein Obama” bon mots for whenver Fox gets Skeletor back on the air.

  15. I heard someone on the radio say that Edwards has the lyrics but Obama has the music. And last night Edwards’ speech was (in my view) uninspirational/divisive/non-presidential, whereas Obama’s speech was “soaring”, as one reporter described it, and very presidential, very real, WOW. Edwards’ two-Americas speech does ring true in many ways, but it will not get him elected president.

    Hillary gave a decent speech (considering that she is a lackluster/flat speaker).

  16. kralmajales says

    Gretchen,

    I agree with what you said about his speech. I thought it was one of the most amazing that I have ever heard in a campaign. (Note I said in a campaign)

    I honestly think he is it.

  17. Obama’s speech was electric and unifying at times he sounded Republican

  18. Sounding Republican might be exactly the intent, round up those left sided Republicans otherwise called RINO’s.

  19. I know. We would be wise to study his policy positions and demonstrate why again sexing up liberalism is a bad idea for America.

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