General Election Races to Watch

Now that the Primary is over, some of the excitement will switch to races in which voter registration is more competitive. Here’s a rundown on those races:

LD 08 – House: Rumor has it that cultural conservatives may hand their 2nd vote off to Stephanie Rimmer if her position on several cultural issues passes the grade. This will cost Michele “Reagan Ain’t Reagan” Reagan some serious votes as pro-lifers add votes to her base of Democrat votes. Strange as this seems, there are a lot of conservative Republicans willing to junk Michele Reagan for a pro-life leaning Democrat.

LD 11 – Senate: Barbara Leff may have a serious challenge in Ann Wallack.

LD 16 – House: This ought to be an interesting race in the South Phoenix area as Bob McPeek continues to carve out a niche of voters on the immigration issue.

LD 17 – Senate: Yawn. Although this is a highly competitive district, Democrat Meg Burton-Cahill is almost guaranteed to win this seat against an education establishment candidate in Rose Crutcher.

LD 17 – House: This race will get bloody as Laura Knaperek and Dale Despain take on Edward Ableser and David Schapira. This is a “college district” which has quite a few liberals but also a strong contingent of LDS and Catholics (City of the Lord) who vote heavily on the right to life issue. My prediction is Knaperek and Ableser.

LD 23 – Senate: This district is moving heavily Republican with tons of development occurring in Pinal county and new families and retirees moving into the area. The real test is will it be Republican enough this General Election. It is very possible that Dem, Rebecca Rios, will be re-elected but within a year, the district will flip Republican. Let’s see if Cheryl Chase will be able to overcome the Rios name.

LD 23 – House: Same demographic situation as in the Senate but another Rios – Pete the father of Rebecca (wasn’t this guy term-limited 10 years ago?) holds heavy name ID. I’d really like to see the district go prematurely GOP by electing Frank Pratt and John Fillmore.

LD 24 – Senate: Another highly competitive district with two house incumbents squaring off for a vacant senate seat. Russ Jones will meet Amanda Aguirre. Look for the State Democratic party to put some money into this district to head off a stronger Republican majority.

LD 25 – House: Republican Jennifer Burns has continue to head off Democrats in a once Dem-guaranteed district. Will she dodge the political bullet again? The big surprise is that Republican Gail Griffin has come out of no where to pull more votes from Burns in this race. Could this be a strong indicator that immigration is a single-issue factor in the General?

Governor: This will be the biggest surprise of 2006 as Len Munsil upsets Janet Napolitano. Look for a serious and renewed coalition of Republicans putting to rest all the old rumors why Matt Salmon lost the election in 2002. Munsil will make a strong case that Napolitano has obstructed progress (Governor “NO”) the last four years and Arizonans will decide to flip the state “red” once again. This will be the beginning of a new legacy in Arizona politics.

Attorney General: Bill Montgomery has an uphill battle against an incumbent with high name ID but hey, name ID isn’t everything. Just ask Don Goldwater. Terry “Jack in the Box” Goddard only started showing his face for the first time in 3 years only recently. Montgomery is likely to win on the mere fact that under Goddard, crime has increased and immigration has gone ignored. Don’t forget that Terry sat on the sidelines while a federal judge charged millions of dollars in fines to the State of Arizona on the issue of English Language Learners. It took Superintendent Tom Horne to fight this kind of judicial activism. Montgomery will hit hard on the issue of immigration leaving Goddard in the headlights.


Comments

  1. Any hope for LD29? A lot of Dems REALLY don’t like Prezelski.

  2. SilentConservative says

    Looking at the votes for LD 25, Gail Griffin won the primary in her home county (Cochise). Hopefully, she’ll get more of a campaign going in Santa Cruz, Pima, and Maricopa for the general. She was a good legislator, and I can’t say enough good things about her as a person. Cochise County turning from Democrat to Republican under her watch as GOP county chair is a testament to her hard work.

  3. Sonoran Truth Squad says

    What are you smoking? Leff rolls in LD11…

    And Len will be put into a tiny box on the far right and not let out. Not by Napolitano, and not by the media. They don’t give him enough money to fight his way out and if he’s the victim of another “push poll” its really going to start to look suspicious. His problem is the same as Andy Thomas’ four years ago. No name id and not enough money. You wanted him, you got him… Now who’ve we got to run in 2010?

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