Double Takes

Interesting numbers still coming in on several races. These were considered relatively safe Republican districts.

Legislative District 9: Republican Rick Murphy leads Democrat Sheri Van Horsen by only 43 votes.

Legislative District 10: Democrat Jackie Thrasher has beaten Republican Doug Quelland by 344 for the 2nd house seat.

Legislative District 11: Democrat Mark Desimone has beaten Republican Don Hesselbrock by 942 votes for the 2nd house seat.

Legislative District 17: Republican Laura Knaperek came in 3rd place in this important Tempe house race by 1743 votes.

Legislative District 18: Only 1307 separated Democrat Tammie Pursley from the 2nd place position given to Russell Pearce in this hugely Republican district.

Legislative District 21: Perhaps the biggest shocker – Democrat Phil Hettmansperger has taken out Republican Warde Nichols by only 8 votes in the solid Republican district!

Legislative District 23: Democrat Barbara McGuire edged out Republican Frank Pratt by 173 votes for this 2nd house seat.

Legislative District 25: Republican Jennifer Burns managed to win the 2nd house seat by 381 votes against Pat Fleming.

Legislative District 26: Conservative Republican David Jorgenson was beaten by Democrat Lena Saradnik by 4294 in a district that should have gone Republican. Meanwhile in the race for the Senate, Republican Al Melvin, appears to have lost to Charlene Pesquiera by 148 votes!

One major speculation on the East Valley: It appears that the LDS influence on  local politics may be waning as Californians and midwesterners move into a growing East Valley. All the new home sales over the last two years has apparently brought with them less conservative homeowners. Could be an important trend developing. Look at LD 23 to switch Republican in the next two years.

Some counting of the absentee ballot continues but it is obvious that this is shaping up to be a “Democrat year” with the GOP losing seats in both chambers of the Arizona Legislature.


Comments

  1. Sonoran Truth Squad says

    Independents broke hard against Republicans at all levels. That said, Quelland’s race is not yet over and Nichols will come back to win. Hesselbrock might not get there and that has to be a shock given how much of a registration edge the GOP has in LD11.

    The state GOP spent $300-400,000 to boost Munsil up to 35%. What a waste. Put into legislative races, they could have won the day for several of these candidates…

  2. Oro Valley Dad says

    I am not sure I would use the term “lost” for the LD 26 Senate race since there are several thousand ballots yet to be counted in Pima County and Melvin is down by less than 150. Depending on which precincts the ballots are from Melvin could still win.

  3. Mike Triggs says

    To put Len Munsil’s defeat in perspective…our candidate drew 35% to. Three points lower than Florida US Senate candidate, Katherine Harris, who pulled 38%. I honestly didn’t think you could run a worse campaign than Katherine did this election year. But I guess I was wrong.

  4. I fully acknowledge that several of these races are not over yet. Let the counting continue and let’s hope the GOP prevails!

  5. NOT BUYING YOUR EAST VALLEY / CALIFORNIA POINT!

    1. What happened in Vegas??? – no pun intended. They elected a “conservative” governor, Ensign beat Carter by alomst 15 point and ALL GOP house members won. AND, Vegas has a ton more Californian’s moving there than we have coming to the East valley. Not even close.

    2. If so many libs have moved to the East Valley the last 2 years then why are seller’s housing prices terrible in the East Valley??? Existing home sales are awful and new homes sales are good but the asking prices are way way down.

    3. The folks from CA and Chicago that are moving to the East Valley are families. Sinlge folks and gays are moving to Tempe, Scottsdale. The East valley has nothing to offer single people– who are way more liberal than married couples with children. Just ask JD Hayworth!!!

    Bottom line – this was just like 1994. Has nothing to do with who is moving to AZ. Way to many people were manipulated by the Bush hating media. Just like Clinton got crushed in 1994. That is why Kyl won by 6 points. Petersen spent $10 million dollars painting Kyl as a Bush clone and worked to some degree. If bush were a tad more popular Kyl wins by at least 15 points. Just look at 2004 if you need a reminder!!!

  6. Oro Valley Dad says

    Kyl won by 7 to 8 points.

  7. I never said that liberals were moving to the East Valley. What I did say is that the influence of the LDS community is being diluted by Californians and Midwesterners. Many of these are Catholic. Still somewhat conservative because there are a lot of families but more are more of the “compassionate conservative” type rather than hard core Constitutionalists. I’d like to hear your definition of both.

    And yes, Scottsdale and Tempe seem to be attracting more of the BGLT crowd because there is a contingent within each city and each chamber of commerce who are specifically marketing to the BGLT crowd.

  8. Sonoran Truth Squad says

    Horne and Goddard win because both are incumbents with high name id and their opponents didn’t get enough money to campaign statewide against them. People will vote for someone they know before they pull the lever for a complete stranger… Defense Exhibit #3? The body of Len Munsil…!

  9. All Catholics are not conservative. one day on my way home, I followed a truck with every liberal Democrat candidate bumpersticker plastered on the back of the truck – all hard core liberals. The truck pulled into an elementary school that was allowing All Saints Catholic Church use it for overflow. I wasn’t shocked but I can tell you there are a whole lotta Catholics who define themselves as smorgasboard on the social issues. Call it the “seamless garment” type (against the death penalty) or the “peace and justice” contingent. These Catholics are there and very liberal. They believe the government should be bailing everyone out and the church should be there just to assuage their consciences for doing nothing. With all the homosexuals in the priesthood, many Catholics have been innoculated on the “gay issue.” I know Catholics who voted against Proposition 107 because they believe its OK to practice homosexuality. But there is a strong contingent of conservative Catholics who follow church teaching and will defend the 5 non-negotiables to the end. These are the antibodies of the Church defending against the cancerous liberals spreading the so-called peace and justice philosophy. With these folks moving into the East Valley, it definitely re-orients the ideology of social battles that have long been conducted by Mormons.

  10. Yes, but Catholic married couples with children tend to be a lot more conservative then divorced Catholics or never married Catholics. The same thing with my fellow Jews. Also, ANYONE who is that liberal, in my opinion, is either Athiest or non-practicing. In my religion these are the Reform or Reconstructionist Jews. These are people whio NEVER attend religious services.

  11. heh. this one really hurt for you guys, didn’t it!!

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