Don’t shoot the messenger.

     I know some of the readers of this blog are Munsil supporters so please read the title of this post carefully. 

     Len recently cited the Battleground poll from WSJ/Zogby.  He failed to mention anther recent poll done by Behavior Research Center.  The Zogby poll shows Len doing about as well as Goldwater in a race with Janet. Len was correct to point out that his numbers have moved a lot more than Don’s have. 

     The poll from BRC is more detailed. It shows a huge number of undecided in the Republican Primary (we knew that.) It does show Don doing better than Len against Janet, by about 10 points among likely voters. But both of them receive a drubbing in the general, Don losses 28% to 57%. Len looses 18% to 58%. It is still early; vote by mail is 14 days away, so there is some time. 

     The truly amazing number is how Len is doing in Rural areas and Pima County.  It is bad enough that Munsil trails Don 16% to 22% in Maricopa County. The numbers for Rural are dismal, Don 25%, Len 3%.  Maybe the poll is invalid because Mike Harris is polling 8% of Rural primary voters. The worst number for Len is the * that he received in Pima County. That means he did not get more than 1% of Republicans in Pima County to express an interest in his candidacy. Pima County is certainly not the center of the Republican universe in Arizona but it does contain 14% of the state’s registered Republican. There are many pockets of conservatives in the county and they would be receptive to Len’s message. 

     Add to this the fact that inside sources in the Goldwater campaign say it is just a matter of when Don turns in his $5 forms, not if. Yes Len got his forms in much earlier but as soon as Don’s forms are approved he will get the same check for $453,849. My guess is that not much of it will go toward political consultants and most of it will go directly into advertising, just a guess. 

     Speaking of consultants maybe when Nathan is not busy throwing solid conservatives under the bus he could earn part of his $6,000 a month and get Len’s numbers in Pima County above 1%. I would not recommend that Nathan personally visit Southern Arizona. Colette Rosati has friends outside of Scottsdale and they will never forget what Nathan has done. 

     I don’t have a horse in this race. Both Len and Don would have positives and negatives in their race against Janet. The biggest negative is Janet’s popularity. Never the less no one likes to spend money on consultatnts so they can get an * in a poll. 


Comments

  1. Sonoran Truth Squad says

    It actually gets worse for Len because once Don gets his money, Len will have already spent more than $100,000 of his primary money getting to “*” in Pima County. So he starts behind and, in spite of having the field to himself this whole time, he fails to make up needed ground while spending $100k… Not good news for Len. That leaves Don ahead, better funded and, oh yes, with the strongest position on border security thanks to Munsil not wanting to upset the McCainiacs running his show. By the way, can anybody tell me any race that Nathan Sproul has ever won? I’ve heard he won a City Council race in Tucson some years ago, but was there anything else? Ever?

  2. I Lub AZ says

    If you are a registered Republican and you “don’t have a horse in this race,” you are either apathetic to the nth degree or you don’t care about the governor’s race – at all. Of course there is a “best” candidate in the Republican Primary. My money is on Len Munsil. It took Goldwater the better part of a year to get his bullet-point stump speech down well enough for him to keep his facts straight – most of the time. Given his implicitly racist approach to forced labor on the border and you have a fool in the making for Janet to eat for lunch come November. Oh, and don’t forget she can thank Don for his time as one of her employees in her opening remarks at their first debate. C’mon, Munsil is the cream of the crop.

  3. That poll is basically worthless, the sample size is far too small. Two other polls (Rasmussen and Zogby) have showed Munsil basically neck and neck with Goldwater in a head to head with Janet. Munsil’s campaign is the only one moving in a positive direction, and he really hasn’t spent any money yet.

    Goldwater’s only advantage is his name, and that advantage is now basically gone. There is no good reason to support Donny-come-lately at this point.

    And the McCain comment is ridiculous, “Truth” Squad. Munsil has never met McCain, and McCain personally dislikes him (like most of the religious right.)

    Munsil’s border position is just as tough as Goldwater’s, minus the over the top rhetoric that would make a general election victory impossible. You are quick to criticize Munsil, without realizing that his ideas about border security actually WOULD WORK!

  4. District 8 Goldwater supporter says

    Wasn’t Nathan the head of Christian Coalition of AZ and the former Executive director of the Arizona Republican party. I would have thought with the contacts he brings to the table in both of those organizations he could have got the Marriage Amendment on the ballot without paying “volunteers” to get the signatures.

    Kind of makes me wonder what kind of “grassroots” organizations Nathan is putting together for both Len and the Marriage Amendment. As we used to say in Wisconsin…looks like the support he brings in a mile wide and an inch deep.

    That’s what political consultants will do to campaigns…all you really get is the giant sucking sound of money going from your campaign accounts and into the consultants pockets.

    But I have to admit as a Goldwater supporter and someone who will be voting against both Len and the Marriage Amendment (Hello…gay marriage is already illegal in AZ) I hope Nathan takes tons of campaign cash to the bank! :>)

  5. Oro Valley Dad says

    I wonder how many campaigns Nathan will run after this one? Maybe someday he can be one of those at-home nurses for Carolyn Allen.

  6. Munsil has had over 150 house parties hosted by supporters. He put up all of his signs statewide without paying a dime, through an all volunteer effort. He has dozens of people who are taking leaves of absence to work on his campaign. And let’s not forget, he qualified for the ballot and funding in less than 2 1/2 months.

    Goldwater had to pay for signatures and hasn’t qualified for funding yet, in year two of his campaign. His support, obviously, is a block wide, and a centimeter deep.

    There is NO comparison between Munsil, and Goldwater, whose last job was stacking chairs for Governor Napolitano. Munsil has made his own political name, and his resume, not Uncle Barry’s will win this race.

  7. I Luv AZ says

    Goldwater has squandered a great AZ name and will take the party down with him come November if he ekes out a primary win. His best pose is “deer in the headlights.” He also has no shame in stretching his resume. he has claimed to have been down on the border with the Minutemen for 2 years. Sorry, they didn’t come to Arizona until April of last year. And by the way, the PMA is necessary to fight off attacks on Arizona’s definition of marriage.

    P.S. Sproul’s name is not on the ballot.

  8. Oro Valley Dad says

    Josh,

    Pretty much everything you say is correct it is just not showing up much in the polls.

    Len blogged on his web site today about a new Rasmussen poll. The Rasmussen results are pay to view but they will show up somewhere in a few days. Since Len did not show the numbers I am going to guess that they are not very good.

  9. It IS showing up in the polls, the Rasmussen one will show Munsil down 18 to Janet, and Goldwater down 15. For Munsil that is an 11 point gain. His is the only campaign showing any positive movement. Plus, every day that Goldwater waits to turn in money, is another day past early balloting’s beginning that Goldwater will have to wait. Remember, it takes a minimum of 10 days to get money, and Goldwater will barely be above the minimum.

    Munsil will win this primary.

  10. I Luv Arizona says

    Yes, Munsil will win. In addition to Goldwater failing to turn in his $5s after promising to do it the week after the Clean Elections debate, he’s also exaggerated his resume about working with the Minutemen. He’s stated to people while campaigning that he has been on the border with the Minutemen for 2 years (sometimes he will say 2-1/2). However, the Minutemen were not even in Arizona until April of last year.

  11. Oro Valley Dad says

    Thanks for the early peak at the numbers. That it is a niticable improvement for Len.

    Does the Rasmussen poll cover Len and Don in a head to head primary? What were the numbers on that match up?

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