Looking at the latest electoral college map on Real Clear Politics, I’d have to guess that the key to a McCain victory lies with the State of Colorado.

Recently, Florida, Montana and Idaho moved into McCain’s column with Ohio and Virginia just now turning “red.”

That leaves Nevada with 5 electoral votes trending toward McCain but not quite the number of votes he needs to clinch the magic 270. Ultimately, he needs Colorado’s 9 electoral college votes to guarantee victory.

The map above shows the current electoral college vote if there were no toss-up states. You will see that Colorado is currently in Obama’s column. Current polls show that Obama has lost traction in that state and it may go dead heat in the weeks ahead.

I would expect the McCain camp to step up visits to Colorado with Colorado Springs serving as a hub to employ conservative activists to take his message statewide.

With the Colorado state motto being: Nil sine numine or “Nothing without providence,” conservative evangelicals may take their political involvment more seriously than ever before.


  1. I pick New Mexico. If it moves to red and is likely to do so; Obama goes down to 268 and McCain up to 270.

    With the move of Indies to McCain in such big numbers, I suspect the ending number will be closer to 285-290 maybe even 300. Indiana and Ohio in the red column indicates the rust belt is not tied up, PA is moving closer to McCain. Throw in Colorado and it hits 300.

  2. It is hard to take this electoral map seriously… There are polls which have McCain with in one or 2 in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. As well as polls with Obama within a few points in Virginia, NC, Nevada, Ohio and ahead in ND…

    The picture is not anywhere near as clear cut as you are showing it here.

  3. Antifederalist says

    Shane, I’ve got to agree with Manny. I think RCP’s “tossup” map paints a far more accurate picture. As for Virginia, because the Dummycrats are in power in DC, No. VA at least has been trending blue since Dummycrats have been moving to VA for the patronage jobs in Congress. It’s enough to possibly tilt the state, just like Arizona has been trending purple.

  4. As much as I’d like to believe NM will go McCain, I think its less likely than Colorado. My sense on the midwest going McCain is that it won’t because of the job losses occurring. PA would be a huge win but I’m not confident it will go red. VA is a done deal for McCain.

  5. Really DSW, Virginia is a done deal.. SUSA has a poll out today with Obama up 4 in Virginia….

  6. Question:

    If the evangelicals do manage to pull off a Colorado win and thus the presidency, will evangelicals stop acting like a persecuted minority?

  7. Klute,

    According to the latest Pew Research Center data on religious demographics, evangelicals are about 26.3% of the US population. This is equal to the number of Roman Catholics in the US. If you add mainline Protestants and historic Black denominations, they make up the other 26%.

    With the move of white Catholics toward the Republican party, I don’t know why evangelicals keep acting as if they have been persecuted. White Catholics and evangelicals hold a significant voting block.

  8. Well, don’t forget, to evangelicals don’t consider us Catholics Christians. We’re as hellbound as atheists and Jews.

  9. Election Projection shows a similar story. There is more detailed information, including a color coded map, showing projected margins of victory in each state. It also shows recent public opinion movements – they have all been in favor of McCain in the past week. Check out the web site:

  10. Klute,

    This evangelical considers you a Christian – I guess that makes me a liberal evangelical to some people.

    Evangelicals and Catholics share a common value in the pro-life position – many evangelicals are willing to acknowledge this common ground.

  11. The Klute,

    See “Evangelicals and Catholics Together” and note the names on the two documents.

    I think your first post above ignores some key cultural issues, while the second is kind of a cheap shot.

  12. I’ll see your “Evangelicals and Catholics Together” and raise you Jack Chick’s “Death Cookie” or John Hagee’s sermons about the Great Whore. Sorry, if heard enough false ecumenicism growing up in the South.

    “I think your first post above ignores some key cultural issues…”

    Like what, exactly? Christians can get TV shows removed, force public apologies, elect candidates to high office. The vast majority of politicians in this country at the local, state, and federal level are Christian. 8 of 9 Supreme Court justices are Christian. You think a candidate could get elected in this country if they were a Muslim? A hindu? An athiest?

    From USA Today, July 13th, 2007:

    “A group of Christian protesters tried to shout down a Hindu clergyman who was invited to give the opening prayer during yesterday’s session of the Senate. Capitol Police say they arrested three people after they stood up and started yelling “this is an abomination” when guest chaplain Rajan Zed invited the Senate to join him in prayer.”

    That’s being a persecuted minority.

  13. You said, “evangelicals don’t consider us Catholics Christians.”

    Many — and clearly some influential folks — obviously do.

    But are we talking “evangelicals,” as your earlier posts stated, or “Christians,” per your latest post? I don’t think most evangelicals get rabid that the 9th S. Ct. justice doesn’t profess to be a Christian, but they don’t appreciate their schools being depleted by the ACLU because they desired an after school bible study or something similar.

    And as for television or film, could you find an industry more venomous towards evangelicals? Perhaps Planned Parenthood and their ilk?

  14. Re: ECT, interested parties can “see” the list here.

    No way it’s “raised” by Chick and Hagee. 😉

  15. Joe G.,

    Well, for me Christian = evangelical – the terms are interchangable because of the prejudices I’ve seen towards Catholicism (for the record, I’m am emphatically not saying *I’ve* been prejudiced against or that it’s affected people of my faith – whatever Catholic biases existed in the 20th century are gone).

    “they don’t appreciate their schools being depleted by the ACLU because they desired an after school bible study or something similar.”

    And for the record, I’d agree with you. Speaking as a card-carrying member of the ACLU, my only problem with with religion in school is when it’s cirriculum or when it’s prostelyized by school officials. I’ve got no problem with “Meet me at the Pole” type activities.

    “And as for television or film, could you find an industry more venomous towards evangelicals?”

    No, but then: Don’t watch it. Followed by: Make your own. 1st Amendment doesn’t come with a “satisfaction guaranteed or your money back!” collorary.

  16. As a Christian believer that has been typecast as an “evangelical”, a descriptor I never asked to hold, anyone who professes Jesus Christ as the Son of God and their personal Savior is a Christian. Labels aside, that is all that matters.

    I fully remember being told Methodists where going to hell…but then so was my dad because he smoked. Most present day Christians have abandoned such fallacy based, man-made doctrine rooted in a desire for power with grace somewhere on the side.

    Hagee does not speak for me; he does not speak for MANY evangelical Christians. Just because he has a big church and a big mouth, does not make him right and our poster boy anymore than your being Catholic demands your agreement with Father Pfleger and absolute agreement on all issues.

    Because we are both Republicans and conservatives does not mean I agree with his dogma.

    So Klute, help me to understand the point in your two posts.

    “Well, don’t forget, to evangelicals don’t consider us Catholics Christians. We’re as hellbound as atheists and Jews.”


    “…I’m am (sic) emphatically not saying *I’ve* been prejudiced against or that it’s affected people of my faith – whatever Catholic biases existed in the 20th century are gone).”

  17. The Klute,

    No doubt prejudices have existed, nor am I denying the Jack Chick’s of the world. Fortunately, things are much different today.

    Re: the ACLU and faith in the public square, I’d argue that we’ve come a long way (and that’s not a good thing, in my opinion) from the beliefs that the founders held on the matter, or was the practice for the vast portion of our history. Yet even were I to concede that all the constitutional cases on the religion clauses were brilliant, my evangelical friends have the distinct impression that the ACLU will not stop until all religion is scrubbed from the public square. I’m tempted to agree, if for no other reason than that the ACLU makes a nice bit of cash in doing so.

    To close, I spoke without clarity on film/TV. If evangelicals are so powerful as to ban shows they disagree with, they sure have done a poor job at it. And while I agree with the general premise that the TV set comes with an off button, it’s ultimately a cruel and inhuman industry which provides a non-stop diet of filth and foulness on TV/internet/cell phones and then throws their hands in the air (talking about Hollywood here) and blames the parents. And even worse, the prevailing culture then mocks the parents for the often ham-handed or imprecise methods used to protect their children.

  18. “Labels aside, that is all that matters.”

    Really? So my belief that faith alone is not sufficient to be “saved” is now acceptable. Awesome.

    “anymore than your being Catholic demands your agreement with Father Pfleger”

    Well, except I do agree with Father Pfleger – who is actually pretty outside of the Catholic mainstream. I think the straw man you’re looking for is the humorless Bill Donohue of the Catholic League.

    “Well, don’t forget, to evangelicals don’t consider us Catholics Christians. We’re as hellbound as atheists and Jews.”


    I don’t believe in that “faith alone” is enough. I accept the veneration of the Saints and Mary. I believe in Confession. These are anti-thetical to evangelical belief, and (especially that 2nd one of those) are considered by evangelicals to be the warping of “true” Christian belief – and thusly blocks to salvation. If they weren’t, I’d see you in the pews at Our Lady of Perpetual Help.

    But about to the anti-Catholic bias:

    I don’t believe Catholics are discriminated against in business or society and whatever belief that I’m going to Hell doesn’t matter to me.

    My original point was that Christians, Catholic, whatever are not a persecuted minority in the United States and should stop pretending like they are, especially when there are actual marginalized groups in American society. The Catholic bit just bit of snark, although there is enough actual anti-Catholic bias to make me wonder why groups like the Catholic League eschew the fight for ecumenicism that doesn’t exist anywya.

  19. Speaking of ecumenism, I and my wife were at wonderful retreat Labor Day week in Prescott with Episcopalians, Lutherans, Catholics, Mennonites, non-denominationals,and Methodists.

    We had wonderful week singing, studying the Bible and just hanging out together. And oh, we were all over the map politically.

    I wish more people of faith would expose themselves to other people’s faiths. (This past Sunday I attended the Arizona Buddhist Temple – very educational.)

    Klute, as a Catholic, you know that your church teaches a wonderful doctrine of grace – a teaching I find more healthy and helpful than I learned in all my years in various protestant churches and schools. I have attended many Catholic churches over the years – I feel very much at home there.

  20. Now that we have totally gotten off the reservation…. Klute, I believe we must confess our sins, be willing to forgive if we expect forgiveness, that Mary was chosen above all women and should be revered but not worshipped in the same way as God the Father, Son, and Holy Spirit, and if you have beliefs that are a part of your spirituality but do not denounce the role of Christ…it cannot “block” your salvation that was freely given and freely accepted.

    And that if Ohio and Virginia go red, then either New Mexico or Nevada join the crowd as the over the top state…. and McCain wins!

  21. McCain will beat Dukakis and get over 300 electoral votes. Ooops. I meant he’ll beat Obama.

  22. The premium page (which is updated daily – the public page is updated weekly) shows that McCain pulled ahead of Obama:

    The Race for the White House – 2008 (Premium)

    Current Projections – as of Sept. 16, 2008

    Electoral Votes:

    John McCain 274
    Barack Obama 264

    Popular Vote:
    John McCain 49.6%
    Barack Obama 48.4%

    A Republican lead this early in the election cycle is a very strong sign of a Republican victory. Of course, the race is still close and there is plenty of time for things to change yet again.

  23. I become a little frightened when The Klute becomes the voice for the Catholics. I am a card carrying member of the Catholic Church and Klute is what we refer to as a “Cafeteria Catholic”. Klute, you might do better calling yourself a Moral Relativist! I know this is sport for you (the arguing Liberal on a Conservative Blog – very weird to me) and that you are the one that brought up Christianity (for sport) but PLEASE don’t go representing us Catholics again without reading the Most Reverend Thomas J. Olmsted’s “Catholics in the Public Square”! You are in direct defiance of the Magisterium, young man! Oh, and if you need a copy of the Catechism of the Catholic Church, I have two!

  24. I submit that at least PA, CO, NM, MN and possibly MI will all go red, giving McCain/Palin a convincing rout. This will also portend well for Republicans in Congress and the Senate.
    The bloom is off the Obama rose–Americans have finally come around to understanding he’s just an empty suit. In the words of the great Thomas Sowell: “Barack Obama is truly a phenomenon of our time–a presidental candidate who cannot cite a single serious accomplishment in his entire career, besides advancing his own career with rhetoric.” (Townhall, Tue, 16 Sep 2008)

Leave a Reply