Wick poll is flawed.

monkey.jpg      The details of the recent Wick Communications poll done by Margaret Kenski are now available. Kenski make a glaring error by only sampling people who voted in BOTH the 2002 and 2004 primary. 

     Hello, that is not a poll of likely voters. That is a poll of likely voters who have lived in the area for at least 4 years. Maybe Margaret does not get out to Marana, Oro Valley, or Sierra Vista much so I will not comment further. There has been a tremendous amount of growth in certain parts of CD 8 over the past few years. I am not sure if a correct poll would change the outcome but the 18% lead is pretty much invalid on the face of it.

Wednesday 10-4-06, 10:15 am


Comments

  1. That is such a ridiculous statement. Margaret Kenski is probably the most accurate pollster in the state. First of all, it was 02 and 04 general election voters. These people are the most likely to show up… they’re called High Efficacy voters.

    Its important to hear from new registrants, but its certainly not as important as hearing from the people you KNOW are going to show up.

    Its sad to say, but I think the 18% is much more accurate than those Zogby polls.

  2. Oro Valley Dad says

    If Kenski is so accurate why did she blow the GOP primary by such a wide margin?

    Why are new registrants not as important? If there are enough of them to be statistically significant and lots of them are traditional Republicans they are certainly important. They may also be high efficacy voters. How does Kenski know if she did not event bother talking to them? My guess is that Wick Communications paid for a quick and dirty poll and that’s what Kenski gave them. I guess it is not Margaret’s fault if they did not pay for a more complete survey that carefully accounts for new arrivals and turn out motivation this cycle.

    What Zogby polls? Are they polling this race? Would love to have the link.

  3. Regardless of the margin, until you can see a trend of Graf beating Giffords not just gaining and losing back and forth, the only thing you can guarantee is that he is behind. We all know that polls are a snapshot in time. We just have to hope that he can get himself above water or her below water. Those are the only trends that are important.

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