CD-5 Money Indicators

PolitickerAZ has posted a brief on what appears to be going on with money in the CD-5 race. Here’s an excerpt on their take:

Harry Mitchell raised $322k in the first quarter and ended with $1.1 million in the bank.  That number was more than all his Republican opponents combined.  David Schweikert led the Republicans with $175k raised and $514 in the bank.  Jim Ogsbury reported $40k/$353k, Mark Anderson $55k/$69k and Laura Knaperek $50k/$44k.  Susan Bitter Smith entered the race after the first quarter had ended. 

Ogsbury has a good cushion in the bank thanks to a $250k loan and is going to need to prove he can raise money.  Mark Anderson had a decent first quarter for a competitive primary.  If one person can make the case that fundraising is not as important to their campaign it would be Anderson.  The state representative can count on his church connections and conservative grassroots organizations to help bolster his campaign on the ground. Talk to almost any Republican in the district and they will tell you Laura Knaperek should be right there with Schweikert as far as money raised.  She is an intelligent, likeable candidate, has experience and has some of the top money and a good staff in her corner.    Knaperek needs to put up a good number this quarter.  Susan Bitter Smith is the wild card in this race.  She came in late, the question will be was it to late.  Bitter Smith can grab all the low hanging fruit this quarter which is always the easiest so Bitter Smith more than anyone needs to raise a number that competes with, if not exceeds anyone else in the race for the quarter.

Another thing to watch in this race is expenditures.  Two of the candidates claim to have polls that show them as the strongest candidate.  A good poll cost $10-25k, so look for those expenditures on their reports.


Comments

  1. George of the Desert says

    I’m curious what Politickeraz.com means when they speak of Anderson’s “church connections.” I mean no disrespect to the man or his church, but there aren’t that many Unification church members in CD 5 are there? Or is Politicker.com assuming that Anderson is LDS? If so, Knaperek is LDS, so why doesn’t that count? Schweikert is a Catholic, so perhaps he gets help from that community?

    No, no, no, no. Please…. Let’s leave “church connections” out of this race. Such ties are overrated anyway… unless you’re a reporter.

  2. George,

    You stole my thunder. I was wondering the same thing. My sense is they do think he is LDS. If they don’t then they really must be crazy to think there will be a groundswell of unification church members that will carry Anderson over the finish line. Not that they aren’t probably hard workers, but probably not enough to really make a difference.

  3. That is a common misconception about Anderson. Unless the Moonies have really expanded, I don’t think it will be a positive factor. It might however, become more common knowledge which could hurt him.

    Expect big policy issues to come out after the 4th. Now it gets fun!

  4. Reflection, distorted says

    I laughed at the “church connection” as well, but think those connections, when they actually exist, are extremely important, especially if the church is big, or in Anderson’s case, not a “mainstream” one.

  5. I’m not sure why you would reprint something so blatantly wrong without a warning. Obviously the Mark Anderson religion thing has been addressed by other commenters, but
    1)they mention Ogsbury’s loan, but not Schweikert’s of the same amount.
    2) Anderson’s “conservative grassroots” is the same group(s) that all of them are actively seeking with no evidence that anyone has broken through.
    3) Anderson’s finance report is impossible — he added his expenditures to his contributions to get his cash on hand….
    4)Knaperek’s fundraising has been woeful. She isn’t close to Schweikert and has been outraised by Ogsbury.
    5)There is no low hanging fruit in this race. Five way primary with candidates who are relatively well-known by people in AZ who give $. Finding someone out there to commit to one candidate is tough. Especially knowing whoever the winner is faces eight weeks of torture against Mitchell, the unions, DCCC and moveon.

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