Poll: Trump Impact On Republican Chances In 2016


Trump nomination cuts GOP motivation, and turns many GOP voters against other Republican candidates

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey commissioned by Insight Consulting, an Arizona firm, concerning GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump and the effect his nomination by the Republican Party would have on voters in Arizona.

The results from the survey shows the results a Trump nomination would have on high efficacy Republican and Independent/PND primary voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 818 high efficacy voters, conducted on November 25, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.43% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

Michael Noble, who conducted the poll explained that “this poll isn’t about whether Trump wins if he is the nominee; it’s about what effect a Trump nomination by the Republican party would have on other Republican candidates.  We wanted to look into the ‘down ballot’ effect Trump as the Republican nominee would have on the 2016 elections.”

Paul Walker, who commissioned the poll issued the following statement: “The 2016 election, like all elections, is about turning out voters – making them motivated to go to the polls or cast early ballots.  Today, Republicans are 91.4 percent “very motivated” to vote next year; Democrats are 83.8 percent “very motivated”; but a Trump nomination changes the numbers.  30.5 percent of high efficacy Republicans become less motivated to vote next year with a Trump nomination, and 20.5 percent become unlikely to support other Republican candidates.  We lose if our voters stay home, and we lose badly if 20.5 percent of high efficacy Republican voters vote against other Republican candidates for other offices.”

Michael Noble explained that Trump’s effect on Independent and PND voters would make Republican campaign strategy much more complex: “A Trump nomination costs Republicans their own support – but it increases the chances of picking up Independent voters.  A Trump nomination makes 50.9 percent of Independent/PND voters more likely to vote next year; while 28.45 percent become less motivated – so you have a net 20.5 percent increase in Independent motivation to vote.  But again, 30.5 percent of Republican voters become less motivated.  So it’s a net loss for Republicans.  Furthermore, Independents are not a homogenous block, obviously.  Many issues effect their votes – so Republican candidates will have less of the GOP base, and would have to chase Independent votes harder: That means campaign messaging and tone have to appeal to more Independents to make up for the loss of GOP support.”

Noble explained that Independents become slightly more likely to support Republicans if Trump is the Republican nominee: “When we asked whether they become more or less likely to support other Republican candidates for other races, 39 percent of Independent/PND voters said more likely and 29 percent said less likely. So there’s an opportunity there, but Republican campaigns will have to have a very different approach to the 2016 election with Trump carrying the Republican banner.  And with 30.5 percent of Republicans becoming less motivated, and 20.5 percent voting against their own party’s candidates in other races, well… The outlook isn’t good.”

Walker added: “While the Trump effect on Independent voters is complicated, the effect on high efficacy Republicans is not; it’s hard to win when nearly a third of your base is less motivated, and it’s nearly impossible to win when 20.5 percent of your base says they are less likely to support other Republicans for other offices.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.43%.

Gov. Ducey’s Republican Education Plan Earns Support of AZ Democratic Party Leader

Ducey Plan Solves One of Arizona’s Oldest and Most Politically Controversial Issues: Education Funding
PHOENIX – This morning Chairman Robert Graham of the Arizona Republican Party congratulated his counterpart, Arizona Democratic Party Chairwoman Alexis Tameron, on her announcement yesterday of her support of Gov. Doug Ducey’s Education Funding Plan. The measure, Proposition 123, will be on the ballot in May of 2016. If approved by voters it will increase K-12 funding by $3.5 billion over the next ten years.
“Governor Ducey is a true leader, and he’s put together a plan to address one of Arizona’s most difficult and controversial issues without putting more pressure on hardworking taxpayers,” said Arizona Republican Party Chairman Robert Graham. “Even the Democrat leadership knows a great leader with a great idea when they see one, and we’re happy to see more and more Democrat Party leaders acknowledge the hard work of our Republican legislature and Governor Ducey, and saying publicly they’re voting for it.”
“I want to thank the Chairwoman for publicly announcing her support,” Graham added.
Governor Ducey’s plan highlights are here:
Governor Ducey’s remarks upon signing the legislation to refer the plan to the ballot are here:
Arizona Democratic Party Chairwoman Alexis Cameron’s remarks, broadcast on 12 News’ “Sunday Square Off” on November 8th, will be available here:

SOS Michele Reagan: Grand Canyon State home to nearly 3.3 million voters

Phoenix – The latest voter registration figures have been released and according to Secretary of State Michele Reagan, the number of registered voters has grown to 3,299,906, an increase of 47,219 since the last report in July.

Of the state’s 3.29 million voters, 34% are Republicans, 28% are Democrats and 36% have either registered with independent parties or not designated a party preference.

Libertarians and members of the Green party make up a little less than one percent of the state’s total registration while the Americans Elect Party has enrolled 500 voters since joining the state’s other recognized political parties in 2011.

“I’m pleased to see the number of registered voters increase by more than forty thousand,” said Secretary Reagan.  “As the state gears up for an exciting 2016 election cycle, including a presidential election, I’m confident our registration totals will continue to grow.

“It’s important to remember, Arizona’s “open primary” provisions do not apply to the presidential preference election. In order to cast a ballot in the March 22nd election, “independents” must be registered with a political party by February 22, 2016.  Our Voting Rights Ambassadors continue to travel the state connecting with schools, clubs and civic groups to educate voters on the process and encourage citizens to participate!”

The latest voter registration figures compiled by county, congressional district and legislative district are available on Arizona.Vote, this link http://bit.ly/1ku1CAg or by calling 1-877-THE-VOTE.

Statement from Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy leadership on defeat of Ohio Issue 3

PHOENIX (November 3) -- In the wake of tonight’s defeat of Issue 3 in Ohio — the ballot initiative seeking to legalize recreational marijuana — Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy released the below statements from its chair, Seth Leibsohn, and vice chair, Yavapai County Attorney Sheila Polk.

“By defeating marijuana legalization at the ballot, the citizens of Ohio have made a smart choice in the name of public health and the cause of protecting children,” Leibsohn said. “As the marijuana movement seeks to try to legalize marijuana in Arizona, what Ohio—a true bellwether state—has shown is that marijuana legalization is not, in fact, inevitable.  The more people look at the new and more powerful strains of marijuana, the attempted creations of legalized monopolies to sell marijuana, the damage done to children accidentally ingesting marijuana edibles, the more people are turning away from making these newly dangerous substances more available. Legality is the mother of availability and availability is the midwife of use, especially childhood use. There is no good reason to make dangerous substances more available and Ohio helped show that to the rest of the country.”

“What Ohio has shown tonight is that when people get all the facts about today’s marijuana, they see a disturbing cascade of concerns—from higher potencies than we once knew to greater and greater damage done to the teen and adolescent brain,” Polk said. “Knowing all the facts and science about today’s marijuana, including that one in three users will have a clinical disorder, it is clear that legalization represents a tremendous problem for not only law enforcement and health agencies, but education and growth outcomes for our children. Turning away from the siren song of legalizing marijuana is not only smart but responsible, and we thank the people of Ohio for their strong dose of common sense.”

About ARDP:
The Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy PAC was formed to actively oppose any initiative that would legalize the recreational use of the drug marijuana in the state of Arizona. Visit www.arizonansforresponsibledrugpolicy.org for more information.

Governor Doug Ducey: Our Money. Our Kids. Our Success

This special message was sent out from the Office of Governor Doug Ducey today:

Doug Ducey

Who says you can’t make government work?

We just did it here with the most far-reaching, high-impact education funding bill in our state’s history. News like this is too good not to share, so spread the word by forwarding this message along!

We’ve just passed, signed, and are ready to go with a bill that:

  • Puts $3.5 billion into education to dramatically improve our schools.
  • Increases per-student funding to $3,600 each year and gives educators the resources they’ve been asking for.
  • Doesn’t raise taxes while maintaining our balanced budget.
  • Provides relief from lawsuit abuse so funds go into classrooms, not attorneys’ pockets.
  • Maximizes the State Land Trust by drawing a modest amount as a shrewd investment in our kids.

I’ll never forget the good friends and strong, loyal supporters who gave me this job and the accompanying charge to solve problems and get results. Your support was, is, and will always be a source of tremendous inspiration.

Thanks so much,

Governor Doug Ducey

P.S. Help me share our fast-breaking news. Tell your friends, family, neighbors and colleagues that we got something great done for Arizona’s future. And we’re not done by a long shot. In fact, we’re just getting started!

Pinal County Attorney Voyles Teams Up With Sheriff Candidate Steve Henry


Pinal County Attorney Lando Voyles Announces Joint Campaign With Current PCSO Chief Deputy Steve Henry


Over the past 7 years, Pinal County witnessed great and innovative changes in law enforcement. Those innovative changes finally fully effectuated with the election of Lando Voyles as the Pinal County Attorney. Those results came after Sheriff Paul Babeu and Lando Voyles ran and worked as the “Law and Order” team.

The partnership showed leadership, accountability and results. That partnership worked because of the strong team efforts between both the Pinal County Sheriff’s Office (PCSO) and the Pinal County

Attorney’s Office (PCAO). The leadership, accountability and results demonstrated itself in numerous ways. Sheriff Paul’s number one deputy and current candidate for Pinal County Sheriff, Chief Deputy Steve Henry, worked tirelessly behind the scenes to make this happen.


Steve Henry showed leadership in many ways that helped the efficiency of trial work at the Pinal County Attorney’s Office. Steve built significant relationships between the Pinal County Sheriff’s Office and outside local, state and federal agencies. Those strong relationships partnered with the hard work and dedication of Pinal County Attorney, Lando Voyles, and PCAO to let all local agencies know that their hard work pays off through the convictions obtained. These relationships also turned the Pinal County Attorney’s Office into a viable alternative to the Federal Government.

Steven Henry’s leadership skills helped him successfully initiate, develop, and implement a major organizational change towards a community policing and intelligence based policing culture. Voyles used this plan to implement a vertical style prosecution that set in place direct accountability for charging and handling cases, resulting in quicker charging to conviction times and a decrease to tax payers, per case.


Henry organized the Professional Standards Unit into an internal mechanism that develops policy, procedure, and operations and continues to professionalize and standardize PCSO employees in best practices and legal based operations. Those same standards allowed Voyles’ attorneys to enter the courtroom with confidence and increase conviction rates, ensuring that our Pinal families remain safe.

Through streamlining operations, Henry maintained responsible police work and exceptional law enforcement services, despite the ever shrinking budget environment. Throughout this same time, Voyles first year in office saved almost a quarter of a million dollars from the budget granted PCAO, during his first full year in office. The second full year Voyles remained under budget by over four hundred thirty thousand dollars. Despite this, the case load increased to an all-time high as a direct result of the responsible police work of PCSO and the dedication of PCAO, as they work together using state of the art techniques and equipment to identify criminal conduct.


Relationships and enforcement strategies resulted in PCSO stepping in front as a national leader in Border Security and Drug interdiction. PCSO, under the direction of Sheriff Paul and Steve Henry, cross-deputized the United States Border Patrol (USBP), authorizing them to arrest suspects the same way that a sheriff’s deputy arrests. That cross-deputizing authority provided USBP the ability to seek out cartel scouts hiding on mountain tops, both on and off of Indian Reservations. Voyles successfully prosecuted each cartel scout, even those arrested on the Indian Reservations, based on the argument that they were committing a conspiracy to commit a crime within Pinal County.

Finally, Henry tripled the amount of volunteers and linked PCSO with numerous community organizations. Henry partnered PCSO with law enforcement agencies in education, crime suppression efforts, and intelligence sharing efforts. This partnership opened new headway in the investigation of child crimes. Voyles used these partnerships in creating the family advocacy centers in Pinal County. Voyles’ and Henry’s efforts, using outside partnerships and intelligence sharing efforts, dropped child crimes investigations from an average of 6 months and 12 interviews, per child, down to one day and one interview, per child.

These combined efforts dramatically changed the direction of law enforcement in Pinal County. The strategies and team work combined to make leading changes that Pinal County cannot afford to roll back. For all of the above reasons, Steve Henry and Lando Voyles hereby announce their joint candidacy for the year 2016, as the new “Law and Order” team and ask Pinal County to “Keep Law and Order”.

Sheriff Paul Babeu said, “Working together has paid off with improved safety, justice for victims and real consequences for criminals. Lando Voyles and Steve Henry will continue this strong partnership to protect our Pinal families and prioritize our safety.”

Steve Henry also commented by saying, “While government is broken at so many levels, this law and order team produces real and positive results for our Pinal County citizens. The county’s population continues to grow, yet we’ve taken an 8% budget cut to our operations. We must work harder and more efficient to ensure we don’t compromise service, staff training or fail to purchase needed equipment that would harm public safety.”

County Attorney Voyles said, “The core function of our government is public safety and justice. While our budgets have been reduced, I’m proud that efficiencies within our operation have produced surplus funds returned to the county general fund.”


MBQF Poll: Joe Arpaio Has 50/50 Chance Of Re-Election

Also, Tested was School Bonds, Pot Convention and Education Tax

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs and consulting firm, announced results of a recent survey dealing with the nationally known, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who could be facing his toughest re-election battle yet.  We also looked at several other current issues in Arizona, primarily within Maricopa County.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 559 high efficacy voters in Maricopa County, conducted on October 19, 2015, the survey calculates a 4.14% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The survey asked several questions of voters.  The first was a basic re-elect question regarding Sheriff Joe Arpaio, “Looking ahead to next year’s election for Maricopa County Sheriff, do you think that Joe Arpaio should be re-elected, or do you think that it is time to give someone else a chance?”

Arpaio Re-Elect Question
Should be re-elected
Give someone else a chance

Party Breakdown

Should be re-elected
Give someone else a chance

The second question was phrased, “Recently, the Republican Party of Maricopa County has decided to oppose ALL 28 school district overrides and bond ballot initiatives come this November.  Arizona is one of the lowest ranked states in the United States when it comes to education.  Would you consider the Republican Party of Maricopa Counties stance on these bonds as obstructionist or as fiscal prudence?”

County GOP-No on all Education
Fiscal prudence
No opinion

The third question was phrased, “Given what you know about Arizona’s education system, would you be willing to pay slightly more generally in taxes to invest in Arizona’s Education System?”

Invest in Education System

The fourth question was phrased, “The Phoenix Convention center will be hosting the “Southwest Cannabis Conference & Expo” at the end of this month.  Do you think that is a good idea or bad idea to host this event?”

Pot Expo – Good/Bad?
Good idea to host event
Bad idea to host event
No opinion

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement:

“With Maricopa County voters split on whether America’s Toughest Sheriff deserves another four years, the data shows Sheriff Joe will have his toughest campaign ever.  Republicans, Democrats, and Independents are near evenly split.  In addition, a small plurality of county voters say they are open to paying more for education.  With most eyes focused on the Presidential election next November, Arizona voters have some big choices.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.14%.

Steve Henry Announces Campaign for Pinal County Sheriff

Steve Henry

Steve Henry Announces Campaign to Fill the Big Shoes of Sheriff Paul Babeu

(San Tan Valley, AZ) — Steve Henry, the Pinal County Sheriff Office Chief Deputy, announced today that he would be running to fill the impending open Sheriff’s position.

With the recent news that current Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu will be running for the open 1st Congressional District their will need to be a strong and capable person to fill those shoes.

Sheriff Paul Babeu stated, “Over the last 7 years we have accomplished so much here at the Pinal County Sheriff’s office and I could not have done it alone.  Chief Henry has been with me every step of the way as we have enforced the rule of law, raised the standards at PCSO and aggressively fought the drug cartels.”

Pinal County is a major pass through county in Arizona for drug smugglers due to Arizona’s natural landscape and given that Pinal County is larger than the state of Connecticut it faces many challenges to law enforcement.

“Providing fast response times in such a large County is an organizational challenge and whoever takes over for me when I leave needs to have the experience to get the job done,” Babeu said. “As I go off to take the fight in Congress for stronger border security and the rule of law I do not want to undue all the good we have done at PCSO since I was elected.  Chief Henry has my full support for his run for Sheriff and I could think of no one more qualified and able to continue to do all the good things we started on 7 years ago.”

Steve Henry stated, “Sheriff Paul Babeu is a friend and we have accomplished great things together.  I can think of no one else in Pinal County that has given so much back to the community and impacted peoples lives in such a positive way.  I have no doubt he will make a great Congressman, until then, I plan to continue the great work we have started.”

Steve Henry lives in San Tan Valley with wife Sally and two teenage children. One of his daughters is married to an active duty Marine and they live at Camp Pendleton.

Steve Henry has a long and distinguished career in Public service and law enforcement.  Prior to becoming the Chief Deputy of the Pinal County Sheriff’ Office in 2009 where he oversees a staff of 700 employees and volunteers with a budget of $44 million, Chief Henry served in various specialized and leadership positions in municipal and county law enforcement agencies including assignments in Patrol, Field Training, SWAT, Gang Enforcement, Internal Affairs, Community Services, Special assignments with the Bicycle Unit and Traffic Unit and recruiting unit. Chief Henry holds numerous certifications to include Hate and Bias Crime Investigations, General Instructor, Fire Arms Instructor, Court certified expert witness in Criminal Street Gangs, to name just a few. Chief Henry also served as an enlisted member and as an Officer in the United States Army, Chief Henry has the experience and training to meet the diverse challenges law enforcement faces in today’s society. Combining his Master Degree in Educational Leadership with specialized leadership training from the FBI National Academy and the Harvard University John F. Kennedy School of Government, Chief Henry is a force in bringing innovative and new programs forward that promote public safety.

Chief Henry is currently a Board Member of the Pinal County Drug Coalition, a Board Member for the Arizona Governors Office of Highway Safety DUI Commission, adjunct member of the Arizona Legislature Border Security Committee, past Vice-President and member of the Pinal County Law Enforcement Association and is a member of numerous other organizations. Chief Henry’s awards are too numerous to list but they include the Eagle Scout award, Police Medal of Honor, two Meritorious Service awards, and the Sheriffs Exceptional Leadership Award. 

Senator Steve Smith Named Chairman of Sheriff Paul Babeu Congressional Campaign

Paul Babeu

Paul Babeu announced Wednesday he has named Arizona’s leading conservative legislator State Sen. Steve Smith as the sheriff’s congressional campaign chairman.

Smith, who represents a legislative district that covers a significant amount of the Congressional District 1, said he supports Babeu because of his unmatched record on combating illegal immigration and drug smuggling.

“Pinal County and all of Arizona has been blessed to have Paul Babeu fight to stem the tide of illegal immigration through our beautiful state and aggressively combat the drug cartels,” Smith said. “Sheriff Paul is an oath keeper, who does exactly what he promises and we need patriots like him in Washington.  I am proud to support Paul and help send a Sheriff to Congress.”

Babeu, the two-term Pinal County sheriff, is running for the open CD1 seat.

The Goldwater Institute and Arizona Conservative Coalition both ranked Smith as the top conservative legislator and Americans for Prosperity named Smith a “Champion of the Taxpayer.”

“I am honored to have Steve on this campaign and can think of no better champion for rural conservative values,” Babeu said. “His expertise and advice will be invaluable as we look to replace a liberal Democrat in CD1.”

Center for Arizona Policy: Abortions Decrease 3.7% in Arizona


Statement from Center for Arizona Policy President Cathi Herrod

PHOENIX – “Arizona leads by example in the national effort to protect the health and safety of women and preborn children – and the numbers again prove it.

The recently released Department of Health Services annual abortion report shows that 501 fewer abortions were performed in Arizona in 2014 as compared to 2013, a decrease of 3.7%. Since 2011, there are now 1,500 fewer abortions performed annually for a decrease of 10.7%! This is encouraging news to everyone who values life, and it is also a testament to what the thriving pro-life movement in Arizona has been able to accomplish.

We continue to see that through strategic public policy and a commitment to loving and serving women with pregnancy resource centers, we can save lives.

Although this is yet another encouraging report, it is clear that the abortion rate in Arizona remains too high. Women considering an abortion deserve better. Our efforts to safeguard women and to ensure that every preborn child has the right to pursue life, liberty, and happiness are far from over.

The shocking videos from the Center for Medical Progress, exposing the barbaric quests of Planned Parenthood executives to sell baby body parts, further prove that we still have a long way to go to ensure that every life is protected and respected. I am more resolved than ever to do what is necessary to protect women and preborn babies from the dangerous and deadly practices undertaken by Planned Parenthood and the rest of the abortion lobby.”

Center for Arizona Policy promotes and defends the foundational values of life, marriage and family, and religious freedom. For more information, visit azpolicy.org.