America Needs Conservative Journalists!

Journalism is among America’s least trusted professions. I know, that’s not a big surprise…

In fact, when asked if they trust the honest and ethical standards of the media, Americans put journalists below most professions, and trust them only slightly more than car salespeople and Congressmen.

Now, more than ever, conservative journalists must use their voices to report the facts and speak over all of the lies. 

If you’re interested in a career in journalism, now is the time to be proactive. 

The Leadership Institute’s annual Journalism Career School will help you succeed in journalism by teaching you the skills to succeed and build your network of conservative journalists. 

Click the link below to learn more and register!
What: Journalism Career School
When: Thursday – Friday, September 17 – 18 | 9:00 AM – 5:30 PM EDT
Where: Online
How to register: Sign up by September 14 for $40!
Register here
Whether you aspire to be on television or pursue a career as a writer, the Journalism Career School will give you the tools to succeed.

You will learn how to:Traditional Journalism: You will learn how to get a job with a publication, build and use contacts in media, and write stories that get you noticed.Broadcast Journalism: You will learn how to get yourself on camera, as well as practice and analyze your television techniques in LI’s studios.Watchdog and Citizen Journalism: You will learn how to build your following online, as well as how to create your own publication and videos that get you noticed!Register today so you don’t miss out!

2020 AZ Primary Early Vote Wrap-Up

What happened and what it means for November

With the primary election tomorrow, we’re giving you our takeaways from the early vote data. There are still tens of thousands of ballots to be cast on Election Day, but the ballots mailed back thus far paint an interesting picture.

Here are the high-level highlights you need to know going into Tuesday:

  • 1,063,828 Ballots Cast
  • 2,316,329 Ballots Requested
  • 45.6% Return Rate
  • 26.7% Turnout
  • 0.9% Democrat Ballot Advantage (representing 9,900 ballots) 

Interesting takeaways: 

  1. Turnout is high: We have seen more overall ballots returned than ever before in a primary election – 1,063,828. As a comparison, we saw about 835,000 ballots returned in 2018 and 682,000 in 2016. While we don’t know yet if these are people who would usually drop their ballots off, we are on pace to hit at least 30% overall turnout.
  2. Democratic turnout is exceeding Republican turnout: While we don’t know how Election Day turnout will fare, we are on pace to see something that we haven’t seen in Arizona in at least the last two decades – more Democratic ballots cast than Republican ballots. There is some hope for Republicans, though, Democrats have 1.4% more of their ballots returned. That 1.4% represents about 15,000 Republican ballots.   
  3. More Independents have cast Democratic ballots than Republican: In Arizona, Independents can choose to vote in either party primary or cast a non-partisan ballot. This year, they have cast a total of 117,845 ballots and about 8,800 more in Democratic primaries than Republican. As a comparison, in the previous two cycles Independents have cast between 10,000 and 12,000 more ballots in Republican primaries than in the Democratic primaries.

While primary turnout does not specifically correlate to general election performance, Republicans need a big Election Day performance to mitigate some of these troubling numbers. Democrats have not traditionally had a lot of primary elections – which has driven down their turnout in the last two cycles – but high turnout this year is occurring in places with and without contested primaries on the Democratic side. 
We will have at least one additional update from Maricopa and Pima counties today that can be seen here. Stay tuned for a full debrief post-election to see if these trends from mailed early ballots held or if the trends simply represented Democratic voters mailing in versus dropping off on Election Day because of COVID concerns.

*Data is current as of 8/02/20 at 6:00pm*
Looking ahead to the General Election
 As mentioned before, we decided to share our entire primary ballot tracker with the public but will be providing general election early vote tracking via paid subscription only. We apologize for any confusion we may have caused in our previous email regarding the general election subscription model. We will continue to release basic, high level numbers publicly for the general election (total ballots and party breakdown, statewide only) but for those looking for greater detail and analysis, we will be offering two subscription levels.

Level One will provide full current year breakdowns similar to what is currently shown on our primary election tracker.

Level Two will have comparison data for the previous two cycles and will add in additional filtration features.

If you have any questions or would like to subscribe for the general election tracker, you can contact Data Orbital here

ABOUT DATA ORBITAL: 

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience.  We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead. 

Scottsdale Candidate Releases YouTube Ad

Scottsdale City Council candidate Michael Auerbach released the following ad on YouTube called Blue Lives Matter.

Rep. Petersen Introduces Bill to Stop Rollovers of K-12 Funding

STATE CAPITOL, PHOENIX – House Majority Leader Warren Petersen (R-12) issued a statement today regarding legislation he has introduced for the 2020 session that would amend the state constitution to prohibit K-12 rollovers, ensuring that education funding is delivered to our schools on time, and in full. A rollover represents a deferral of the payment from the year in which the obligation was incurred to the next fiscal year.

Rep Warren Petersen
Rep. Warren Petersen (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

“In the mid-2000s, Arizona implemented budget gimmicks like K-12 rollovers to counter poor fiscal decisions and a faltering economy,” said Representative Petersen.  “Fortunately, under conservative leadership, Arizona has righted its fiscal ship and the economy is strong.  But we need to be prepared for a future downturn.  Arizona has taken some excellent decisions like paying off debt and amassing a billion-dollar rainy day fund.  Now it’s time to eliminate the K-12 rollover and prevent future utilization.  A statutory change would be too easy to go around.  That’s why I have introduced a constitutional amendment to prohibit the deferment of K-12 payments from one budget year to the next.”

OHPI: Trump Impeachment – A Closer Look

Impeachment is a hot-button issue with high engagement among Arizonans

PHOENIX (Nov. 14, 2019) – Arizona’s registered Hispanic voters want to see Trump Impeached but the president’s main base, white male voters, are sticking with him a new poll shows.

A majority of Arizona’s Hispanic voters would like to see the president impeached and removed with 57% in favor, 37% against. Among non-Hispanic voters, only 39% favor impeachment and removal and 49% are against impeachment.

“Hispanics make up nearly one-third of Arizona’s total population and they are becoming more engaged at the ballot box,” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. 

When it comes to gender, the divides are less clear. A slim majority of male registered voters in Arizona believe that Trump should not be impeached — 51%. While women are evenly split with 44% of female voters thinking that Trump should be impeached and removed and 44% thinking he shouldn’t be.

There are also differences among Arizona’s electorate on the impeachment question by age. By a 5-point margin, voters aged 54 and under believe that Trump should be impeached and removed. On the other hand, by a 17-point margin, more voters 55 and older think that the president should not be impeached and removed from office than think he should be.

Another constituency key with which Donald Trump will need to do well to win reelection in 2020 are voters who live in Maricopa County. Nearly 6 out of every 10 votes that are cast on election day comes from this county and in 2016 it voted for President Trump over Hillary Clinton by roughly 7 points. According to this poll, 46% of registered voters in Maricopa County would like to see Trump impeached and removed from office while only 42% would like him to stay in office.

Among regions in Arizona, Maricopa County has the highest level of support for impeachment. In Pima County, 51% of voters do not want President Trump to be impeached and removed compared to 41% who do. The president is viewed more favorably in the rest of Arizona, voters are against his impeachment by a 2-to-1 margin.

On another note, many Arizonans are engaged in the impeachment issue. For example, 43% of respondents have discussed the issue with someone else, 39% have watched more news on TV, and 30% have researched the issue online.

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MethodologyThis survey was conducted via an online opt-in panel. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights between October 31, 2019, and November 8, 2019 with respondents self-qualifying as registered to vote in Arizona. The sample is weighted to accurately reflect Arizona voter registration by region, party affiliation, gender, and age. The sample size was 900 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.27%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

OHPI POLL: To Impeach or Not to Impeach

POLL: More Arizonans Disapprove of Trump but Fewer Want Him Removed from Office

PHOENIX (Nov. 13, 2019) – With public impeachment hearings starting up this week, Arizonans are split on whether President Donald Trump should be impeached and removed from office, a poll released Wednesday shows.

The statewide poll among registered voters found 42 percent of Arizonans believe Trump should be impeached and removed and 47 percent do not believe he should be impeached.

The same poll also found Trump’s approval rating underwater in the Grand Canyon State. Fifty percent of Arizona registered voters disapprove of President Trump’s performance and 46% approve of his performance. 

Sentiment regarding Trump’s job performance is split on party lines with 82% of Republicans, 12% of Democrats, and 41% of Independents giving the president a positive rating.

On the question of impeachment, Arizonans are also split sharply along partisan lines. Democrats in Arizona believe Trump should be impeached by a 69-point margin (80 percent to 11 percent) and Republicans think Trump should stay in office by a similarly large 66-point margin (79 percent – 13 percent). While a majority of independent voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing in office, they are less certain that he should be removed from office. Only 39% of registered independents think that he should be removed and 46% think that he should remain in office.

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MethodologyThis survey was conducted via an online opt-in panel. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights between October 31, 2019, and November 8, 2019 with respondents self-qualifying as registered to vote in Arizona. The sample is weighted to accurately reflect Arizona voter registration by region, party affiliation, gender, and age. The sample size was 900 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.27%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

About OH Predictive Insights:
Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-402-5181 or submit a request online.

Removal of Pancho Villa Statue Denied

A conservative watchdog group’s attempt to have a downtown Tucson statue removed was denied after a unanimous vote last week by the Public Art and Community Design Committee.

The 14-foot bronze statue of Mexican revolutionary Pancho Villa on a horse stands in Veinte de Agosto Park. The statue was a gift to the state of Arizona from the Mexican government and a Mexico press group.

The removal request was submitted by Washington, D.C. based Judicial Watch as the group received complaints from multiple residents. City records do not indicate that a public hearing was held to hear complaints prior to the statue having been unveiled in 1981.

Mark Spencer, the Phoenix-based coordinator of Judicial Watch’s Southwest Projects, said the statue “needs to go” because “Pancho Villa did great harm to people.”

After the vote concluded, Spender said he would consult with his legal team to ensure that the panel adhered to city policies.

In charge of managing the city’s public art collection, the committee said the request did not meet any of the 10 criteria used to consider removing public art, such as damage or a request from the artist.

During the meeting, a dozen residents gave statements defending the statue, pointing to its aesthetic value and role in celebrating local Mexican-American culture.

“We don’t want to forget that history, that history that is grounded in Mexican-ness,” said Lydia Otero, a professor of Mexican-American studies at the University of Arizona. “Each person that walks up to the statue has to ask questions about why this statue is here, right downtown. And they have to come up with their own answers. You know why? Because we are Tucson and it is complicated.”

Reposted from All About Arizona News.

Representative Mark Finchem Introduces Bill to Create Teacher Code of Ethics Prohibiting Political Advocacy in the Classroom

STATE CAPITOL, PHOENIX – Representative Mark Finchem (R-11) has introduced legislation (HB 2002) that requires the State Board of Education, in coordination with the Superintendent of Public Instruction, to create a code of ethics for teachers that prohibits political, ideological, or religious advocacy in the classroom. While the practice is already prohibited in Arizona State Statutes, there is no code of conduct or code of ethics.

“HB 2002 is a response to many calls from parents to end political activity in the classroom,” said Representative Finchem. “I respect the important role that teachers play in society, but this is a parental authority matter. If parents want to shape the political views of their children, that is their right. However, it is not the proper role of the state and, by extension, teachers.”

“I have good friends who are teachers and they tell me that although they do not promote political agendas in their classrooms, some of their peers do.A code of ethics prohibiting political activity in the classroom shouldn’t be an issue if that behavior isn’t presently happening. But where it is, it needs to come to an end.”

Fair Arizona Independent Redistricting Citizen Committee Launched; Announces Former State Rep. Jill Norgaard As Chairman

Phoenix, Arizona – Fair Arizona Independent Redistricting (FAIR) is pleased to announce its formation and launch as a citizen committee dedicated to ensuring a fair, balanced and unbiased redistricting that accurately reflects the culture and values of the hardworking Arizonans who call our state home. In the coming months, FAIR will be meeting with community leaders, citizen workgroups, industry and faith community stakeholders, and subject matter experts. The 2021 redistricting will shape the next generation in Arizona’s future and FAIR is committed to seeing it done right.

“The 2020 census and 2021 independent redistricting are nearly upon us and it is imperative that those processes reflect Arizona’s unique and diverse citizenry in a fair and balanced manner, free from the influence of out of state power brokers and activists,” said FAIR Chairman Jill Norgaard. “The 2021 redistricting will shape the next generation in Arizona’s social, political and industrial future and the Fair Arizona Independent Redistricting citizens committee is dedicated to ensuring it is done with integrity.”

Arizona, like many states, must redraw its congressional and legislative districts every ten years to reflect changes in its population. Redistricting will take place in 2021 following the completion of the upcoming United States Census. Historically, the Arizona Legislature has controlled the redistricting process; however, in 2000 Proposition 106 was passed that delegated this power to a bipartisan independent commission. The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission is comprised of two Democrats, two Republicans, and one independent chair.

Fair Arizona Independent Redistricting (FAIR) is an independent citizen committee dedicated to ensuring a fair, balanced and unbiased redistricting that accurately reflects the culture and values of the hardworking Arizonans who call our state home. 

Latest Poll Shows Martha McSally Narrowly Leads in US Senate Race

Democratic Surge in Early Ballots has Tightened the Race

PHOENIX (Nov. 5, 2018) – The latest poll from OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (ABC15/OHPI) shows that Martha McSally, Arizona’s Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has a one-point lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, with 49 percent of the vote. Green candidate Angela Green receives zero percent of the vote, down from one percent since our last poll. Since dropping out, Green no longer has the Election Day Independent voters, who we saw her take more of in a previous OHPI poll(8%).


The survey was conducted November 2 to November 3, 2018 with a sample of 631 respondents qualified as likely voters. All live-callers were used to collect the sample, yielding a +/-3.9% MOE.

“Arizona is seeing a historic midterm election turnout and Democratic voters are defying past historic early voting trends,” said Mike Noble, Chief Pollster and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. “The race has tightened and it’s fitting that the winner will be decided based on who can best turn out out their voters on Election Day.”

Since our last poll, conducted on October 22, the largest change has been the late return of a surge of Democratic ballots in Pima County. This is done by a bloc of Democratic voters who we were unsure would turn out in the general election: Steve Farley Democrats. This group is considered new primary voters who voted for Farley and not David Garcia in the Arizona primary election: OHPI analyzed them in September.

Farley Democrats started returning their ballots en masse within the last two days of early voting, especially standing out in Pima County with a ten-point Democratic advantage of 43 percent. In Maricopa County, the largest county in the state with 60 percent of the electorate, Republicans also have a ten-point lead with 43 percent. This indicates a lagging Hispanic turnout with engaged white Democrats, which is a trend OHPI was looking for and did not see materialize until recently.

The key comes down to Sinema’s voters being more energized, while Republicans need to turn out their voters on Election Day. OHPI found that 88 percent of Sinema’s voters have already turned in their ballots, while only 70 percent of McSally’s voters have done the same. This is ultimately a breakdown by region, where 86 percent of Pima County’s voters have already voted. Only 74 percent of those in the rural areas have done so, with more being Democrats.

A Republican turnout operation will be crucial to combat Democratic excitement. While many more of the votes for Sinema are already cast and guaranteed, McSally needs to pin her votes down and solidify them.

Methodology: This all live-caller survey was conducted via 50% cell and 50% landline poll. The poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on November 2, 2018 and November 3, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 631 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.9%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding. Poll report for the General Election poll can be viewed here.