2012 Predictions Anyone?

Happy New Years!

It’s that time again for political predictions!

This year, I’m self-limiting myself on predictions due to my unique position and the likelihood that whatever I say will probably anger several of my Republican friends.

Instead, I’m opening up predictions to our readers.

If you’d like to submit your safe predictions or an out-on-a-limb prediction and have it appear in the body of this post (with your name), email it to me at sonoranalliance@gmail.com. Otherwise, feel free to post it in the comments.

For starters, I’ll throw a few questions out to get things going:

  1. Who will win the US Senate race? Who will win the Republican and Democrat nominations?
  2. Who will win the Arizona Presidential Preference Election on February 28th?
  3. Who will win each of the Congressional Districts?
  4. Will Republicans retain a supermajority in both Houses of the Legislature?
  5. Will Sheriff Joe Arpaio be re-elected?
  6. Will Arizona media outlets survive another year?
  7. What will be the biggest political story for 2012?
  8. What will be the biggest political shock of 2012?

Have fun gesticulating, speculating, prognosticating and pontificating!

GOP Iowa Voters Sending a Message Using Ron Paul?

I love posing these questions on Sonoran Alliance because some readers fail to process the point of the post and get themselves in a tizzy.

Here’s the question (and I know our Ron Paul readers are going to love this):

The latest poll out of Iowa shows Ron Paul now leading the pack 23% to Romney at 20% and Gingrich at 14% (link). Are the voters of Iowa trying to send a message to the other nominees? What is that message? And if the premise is true nationally, when will they pull back from this game of political chicken and give Mitt Romney the official nod?

Or, will all this lead to a brokered convention?

Finally, does anyone doubt that the official GOP ticket will be Romney/Rubio?

Phoenix Mayoral candidate Jennifer Wright – An upset in the making!

Watch the following video from this Sunday’s Square Off as political pundit and insider, Chris Herstam makes the prediction that conservative Tea Party candidate, Jennifer Wright could possibly take second place in the upcoming August Phoenix Mayoral race. (Herstam believes that Greg Stanton will win the vote with 30-35% of the vote (not enough to clinch the win) but Wright could finish second place against Peggy Neely if Wright is able to raise enough money to get mailers out.

For those who follow politics a little closer, Chris Herstam also predicted a near win by 2010 Congressional Candidate, Ruth McClung in the General Election against Raul Grijalva.  Herstam would not make such a statement unless he could back it up with hard polling data.

Here is the video clip:

Read what Arizona Republic political reporter Robert Leger also wrote about Jennifer Wright:

“Wright could be a key factor. Most pundits, noting she entered the race late and has little money, expect her to finish in the single digits. But an important point: She collected 3,500 signatures in three weeks using only volunteers. Passion is as important as money in a campaign, maybe more so.”

The race for Mayor and Council in Phoenix will come down to a race between the government unions vs the taxpayers. Unions are out working to elect their next “bosses” in order to get the long-term benefits paid for courtesy of Phoenix taxpayers.

Help Jennifer Wright take back America one city at a time by donating to her effort. This is a potential upset in the making and you have the opportunity to make it happen and send a message loud and clear.

Donate Now.


Sarah Palin’s place in Arizona History

I have to wonder if historians will one day write that, “The first woman President of the United States was both the Governor of the 49th State and a US Senator from the 48th State.”

In an earlier post I wrote that I thought that Governor Palin was running for President in 2012. I have not ruled that presupposition completely out. Every indication is that she is making ready for a run and a campaign based in Arizona.

But there is a new rumor-theory making the political rounds that gives me reason to believe that Palin may not run after all and may be instead thinking much more long-term in terms of her political future.

In my earlier post, I mentioned that I believe that the Palin’s fell in love with Arizona in their visits here over the last 2-3 years. Who wouldn’t? But I also believe that that love affair is mutual on behalf of many Arizonans who are thrilled to adopt the former Alaskan Governor as their very own. Remember, many Arizonans were not thrilled with the 2008 nominee until Sarah Palin was chosen to be on the final ticket. I was one of them.

This brings me back to the premise of my post and the settling of ruminations that occurred this week when Governor Palin dismissed any intention to seek Arizona’s Senate seat, at least not in 2012. (Watch interview.)

It is extremely unlikely that John McCain will seek re-election in 2016 and some politicos even speculate that he may retire early. Between now and 2016, Arizona will have another statewide election (2014). But we must also remember that anything under the Arizona sun can and oftentimes does happen.

Perhaps we should think longer term about Sarah Palin’s political future because, while it may have begun in Alaska and may ultimately peak in The White House, her newly adopted home state of Arizona may very well be the next chapter in her service to this Republic.


The Great Constitutional Divide – or what is Glenn Beck upset about?

This is dedicated to Nancy Huzar and to all those readers who, while waking up to the Tea Party Experience, now find themselves in an unfamiliar landscape with career politicians all claiming to be “Common Sense Conservatives”.

As we begin the second decade of the 21st Century in the United States, perhaps we should reflect on the crossroads that loom before us.  Should we proceed along the path to a Old World European Socialist Democratic form of governance?  Or perhaps we should continue the moderate centrist Constitutional Republic form of governance bequeathed to us by the Founders of our country?

Today, the Progressive Left would have you believe that they are America’s center, that they represent a centrist value position of the majority of Americans… all 300+ million of us.  But do they?

Perhaps the United States is fundamentally a centrist country holding moderate values that allow for tolerance of the extremes.  Perhaps this recent election is a statement by that once silent majority that they reject the progressive socialist agenda that the current administration is pursuing seemingly at all costs.

Consider this:  It was rugged individualists who believed that redemption was an individual matter between themselves and Nature’s God founded America.  Contrast that with the individual who now resides in the White House.  It is his core belief, and that of those around him, that redemption collective.  It is in the  group, not the individual where one finds redemption.  How alien is that to what our Founders believed?  What’s worse, there is an entire cadre of adherents in academia working 24/7 to re-write history to suit their worldview.

People’s view of the proper role of government is a continuum stretching from the extreme Left (Totalitarian Communism) to the extreme Right (Totalitarian Fascism).  Most Americans hold Moderate Values and fall as “Centrists” on this scale.

The current administration in Washington, and those of its allies on college and university campuses, tend to fall much further to the left of center than do most Americans.  This is one reason that voting districts in large urban areas and around major universities tend to be “Blue” on the election maps while large tracts of suburban and rural America vote “Red”.  The election of 2010 drove this contrast to the forefront of the county’s awareness.  It would be a strategic mistake for the statist members of the Republican Party if they didn’t pay close attention to the message of 2010.

America is becoming polarized, pulled to the left of the Constitutional Divide by an increasingly aggressive Socialist minority with their vision of a Collective utopia.  It is any wonder that today; the majority of Americans have such poor esteem for their members of Congress?  Is it any wonder that today, a majority of American’s sense something is terribly wrong?  It is exactly this awakening that drives talk radio and edutainment shows like Glenn Beck.  Americans know that the “Hope & Change” they were promised isn’t consistent with America’s core centrist moderate values.

Take this simple test.  Remember, each is a sliding scale from Left to Right.  Ask yourself; “What do I believe?  Do I believe in individualism or collectivism?  Which describes my thoughts best?”

Well, there it is, the Great Constitutional Divide[1].  Given that most Americans describe themselves as being “in the center” you may correctly conclude that the column on the right most accurately describes most Americans and, the column on the right is pretty much the center for the United States.  The stress many are feeling is that of a minority within the government, the major media and in our colleges and universities who are tugging us unwillingly into their Brave New World.

While this has been evolving since the early 20th Century, we may thank Barak Hussain Obama for forcing the issue and for waking up the great silent majority.  Just remember, you are the center and they are the extreme.

[1] With many thanks to Alan Korwin for providing most of the contrasting text within the two boxes. Be sure to visit him at www.gunlaws.com

2011 Predictions

Happy New Years to all our readers!

We now get to make those annual predictions of what we expect to take place on the political scene here in Arizona over the next year. I’ll lead off the post with a handful of my own.

Please feel free to comment on mine and throw a few of your own out for discussion in the comments.

The State Budget will remain in turmoil. Despite supermajorities in both houses by the GOP, Republicans will be divided on where to make appropriate budget cuts. The Arizona Education Association will threaten, bully and manipulate Republicans in swing districts to avoid touching that portion of the budget that funds education (a lot). The Governor will attempt to assuage both sides of the party and the teachers union and other state-funded lobbies leading to more chaos. This will be a classic triangulation maneuver. A schism will likely form between House and Senate leadership over this issue. Senate leadership will have to deal with a handful of education-backed senators who will force a compromise. The legislative session will run long while the agenda will be tumultuous. Watch for the typical fear, loathing and hyperbole from the left and unions.

Immigration will remain a prominent issue but will be forced to take a lower priority on the legislative agenda. Supporters of Birthright Citizenship will be frustrated by the pace of action and will threaten to run a statewide initiative in 2012.

Kyrsten Sinema will rise as the most prominent, vocal, outspoken and appealing leader in the Democratic party. Because she serves in a “safe” district, she will have the luxury to say what’s on her mind and not care what anyone thinks. This will be real drama for the media and political pundits as they run to Kyrsten any time they need a quote. She will be one very busy Democrat.

Mitt Romney will be the first to form a presidential team in the State of Arizona. Based with east valley leadership, Romney will make several trips to Arizona setting up the most formidable and well organized campaigns in the State of Arizona. Other presidential campaign teams will struggle to gain a foothold in the State. Palin will decide against a run.

The new 9th Congressional District will be formed in the east side of the state. It will take in the east valley as it’s primary population base and will cut all the way across to the eastern border with New Mexico. CD-1 will have it’s lower eastern section lopped off and Pinal County will form a major part of the district. CD-7 will lose a section of the west valley. CD-6 will consolidate further north and may edge into CD-5. CD-4 will become more concentrated to the Central Phoenix area.

The race for CD-9 will see several east valley names jump in. Among those: Jeff Smith, Chuck Gray, Paul Babeu, and Bryan Martyn. Kirk Adams will entertain the possibility but will be a hold out based on where the lines are drawn and the outcome of the State Budget crisis.

The GOP Congressional delegation will hold strong to the principles they were elected. However, frustration will mount over the slow-pace and resistance found in the Senate. The challenge to the House-controlled GOP will be to stay focused on passing legislation and not attacking President Obama.

Rob Haney will win another term as Maricopa County Chairman. Bruce Ash will be the next Arizona Republican Party Chairman. Democrats will continue to flounder over who is really running their party.

The Arizona TEA Party movement will finally realize it needs to fully inject itself into the GOP party process if it wants to impact election outcomes.

One more. The Arizona Legislature will explore avenues to tax medicinal marijuana thus creating an inherent interest in keeping it around forever.


Now it’s your turn…

Predictions Anyone?

In just 24 hours the polls will close and millions of Americans will hopefully assuage the anger that has dominated our political culture since November of 2008.

It has been a long two years. Let me say that again. It has been a long two years.

Many great people have run for public office over the last year and a half. Some did not make it past the primary but I know they will continue to do great things. I look for some of them to return.

As we head toward the finish line tomorrow at 7 PM, I hope and pray all the hard work that we have done will pay off. Given the current political temperature, I sense it will be a “hot” evening for Republicans.

So without throwing my predictions out on the table, I’d like to hear from our readers on what to expect.

Predictions Anyone?

Here are my predictions on several races:

CD-1: Rusty Bowers
CD-2: Trent Franks
CD-3: Too close to call!
CD-4: Janet Contreras
CD-5: David Schweikert
CD-6: Jeff Flake*
CD-7: Ruth McClung
CD-8: Jesse Kelly

Attorney General: Andrew Thomas
Superintendent of Public Instructions: Too close to call
State Treasurer: Thayer Verschoor
County Attorney: Bill Montgomery

*This race will hinge on whether the TEA Party movement can get their people to the polls!

JD Hayworth–A Legend In His Own Mind

On CNBC this morning, House Majority Leader and FreedomWorks Chair Dick Armey ripped former Congressman Hayworth. 

CNBC’S JOHN HARWOOD: Mr. Leader, let me ask you for your evaluation, having served a long time with J.D. Hayworth, that a) he’s one of the dumbest members of Congress, b) John McCain’s criticism of him is somebody who took too much money from Jack Abramoff and is somehow tied into the influence scandal. And thirdly, his criticism for free trade and of business on immigration.

DICK ARMEY: First off, remember, I’m a free market economist that begins with Adam Smith. So obviously free trade is a position I’m going to draw a sharp distinction between myself and the position taken by J.D. It was my job for eight years to manage the Republican majority. I’ve made this point in Arizona. J.D. had a fairly undistinguished career. I don’t remember a single legislative initiative that he took nor do I recall him actively working on a legislative manner. J.D. was quite an orator. He would take the well and give fairly good orations. But –

HARWOOD: He noted that yesterday he was the first Republican to serve from Arizona to serve on Ways and Means. And he’s saying in his ads and in the town meetings that he helped write the Bush tax cuts.

ARMEY: Well, is that right?


ARMEY: See, I was there at the time, but I must have been busy with something else because I missed that

The House Majority Leader says he “missed” JD having anything to do with the Bush tax cuts.  He also can’t remember JD being of much use in the House but does remember that he could sure  talk a lot and well.  Hmmm…maybe that is where he gets the “consistent” label!




So, what do people who deal in reality think? 

Armey commented on that, too.  Armey predicted a decisive McCain victory on Tuesday, saying

The fact of the matter is that we consistently hear from our ears on the ground, our real activists who are involved is that John McCain cannot be beaten in the Republican primary in Arizona. I think the polling data that the experts from afar garner from it validates the observations of our activists. So I would predict John McCain to win this thing and win it decisively based on the polling data which is the second better source from our people on the ground.”


UPDATE…You may see the entire interview here.  The excerpted dialogue calling the election for McCain can be seen at about   2:52 into the over 5 minute long video.  The section of the interview where Mr. Harwood asks Mr. Armey questions begins at 3:45 and continues as Mr. Armey says he must have “missed” JD having anything to do with writing the Bush tax cuts.

Why and how John McCain could lose the General Election

Earlier this year, I asserted that Democrats would have a tough time winning in any General Election in 2010. I’m not so sure that will be the case if John McCain wins the Primary Election on August 24th.

Throughout the Republican Primary in Arizona, John McCain has had willing accomplices in the local media. Every step of the way, local and national reporters have given him a free pass having virtually ignored his sudden changes in positions nor questioning his motives for such newly adopted positions. At times, it even appears as if both Dan Nowicki of the Arizona Republic and James King of the Phoenix New Times have been in competition over who might succeed as McCain’s next press secretary. Each “reporter” has had a direct pipeline to McCain’s Director of Communications, Brian Rogers who once served as the Director of Research for Al Gore’s Climate Initiative Project.

Even more disturbing has been the media’s profound and overt bias against JD Hayworth. Every assertion and attack by Team McCain against JD Hayworth has remained unquestioned and assumed true.

Despite the media’s apparent “love affair” with John McCain, their may be a more sinister motive at play after the Primary Election. Could media coverage of the Republican Primary actually be part of an underhanded effort to nominate McCain because he will be a weakened and more vulnerable candidate against the Democratic nominee in the General Election?

Before you rule out this hypothesis, consider the factors at play.

Over John McCain’s entire 28 years of service, Democrats have far more damning evidence available and at their disposal to be used in a General Election. One only needs to review the many websites and blogs Democrats created in 2007-2008 archiving and detailing John McCain’s long history of gaffes, unflattering video and now flip-flops. The Democratic National Committee may even see another effort to defeat John McCain as another top trophy on the wall.

Conservative Republicans and TEA Party members are furious with John McCain over his sudden untrustworthy “conservative conversion.” He is viewed as the Republican version of John Kerry with his endless list of election year flip-flops. There is also anger by fellow conservatives and Independent voters over his endless relentless attacks on fellow Republican JD Hayworth. It is very rare that an incumbent US Senator spends $20 Million against a challenger in a Primary Election. But what really infuriates conservatives is the fabrication of lies and the blatant name-calling by Senator John McCain. It was a shock to the conservative faithful when John McCain on television called JD Hayworth a “pig.” This will not be forgotten anytime before November 2nd.

If John McCain is renominated as the Republican candidate on August 24th, conservatives and TEA Party members will likely not vote for him. He has already lost his base of support with conservatives and Independent voters are turned off by his unstatesmanlike behavior.

And Democrats are hopeful just as they were in 2008, that John McCain will once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. He’s old, tired, uninspiring and they believe they may even be able to pull off another upset as Republicans will remain disgusted and divided over their nominee.

Conservative Republicans simply won’t care if John McCain wins or loses. They know what they’ll get in the end and there will be little differentiation between the Democrat and John McCain. And unfortunately, this time, John McCain won’t have Sarah Palin to bail him out.