Everyone likes political predictions and these longtime media political reporters are no exception.
Barely edging out the competition on 2015 predictions, Capitol Media Services’ Howie Fischer returns alongside Steve Goldstein of KJZZ and replacing the recently retired Doug MacEachern is Arizona Republic columnist Laurie Roberts.
In the first eight minutes of the segment, Ted Simons reviews the panel’s 2015 predictions tallying up a win for Howie Fischer with 9 points to MacEachern and Goldstein’s eight points.
The remaining 18 minutes, Roberts, Goldstein and Fischer deliver their 2016 predictions. Here’s a summary of what they expect to happen in Arizona and national politics over the course of 2016:
- Republican Presidential Nominee?
Roberts: Marco Rubio
Fischer: Ted Cruz
Goldstein: Jeb Bush
- Democrat Presidential Nominee?
Goldstein: Hillary Clinton
Fischer: Hillary Clinton
Roberts: Hillary Clinton
- Who wins the Presidency?
Fischer: Whoever the Republican is unless it’s Trump
Goldstein: Jeb Bush
Roberts: The Republican nominee unless Trump runs as an Independent
- What will be the final number of electoral votes?
- Who wins the US Senate race in Arizona?
Goldstein: John McCain
Roberts: John McCain
Fischer: John McCain
- What will be the congressional delegation party breakdown?
Fischer: 5-4 Republican
Goldstein: 5-4 Republican
Roberts: 6-3 Republican
- Will Donald Trump win a state primary?
Goldstein: Yes, Trump will win South Carolina
Fischer: Yes, several state primaries
- Who will win in Arizona’s Congressional District 1?
Goldstein: Paul Babeu wins GOP nomination; Tom O’Halleran wins Democrat nomination & General Election
Fischer: Babeu wins GOP nod; O’Halleran wins Dem not and ultimately CD-1 seat
Roberts: O’Halleran wins Dem nomination; Gary Kiehne wins the seat for Republicans
- Will Democrats take over the US House?
Fischer: No way
Roberts: No way
Goldstein: No way
- Will Republicans keep the US Senate?
- How many initiatives on the 2016 Ballot?
- Will Marijuana make it on the ballot and pass?
Roberts: Yes, but it will not pass
Goldstein: Yes, but it will not pass
Fischer: Yes, but it will not pass
- Will the May Special Election Education Funding Referral pass?
- What will the winning percentage be for the education funding referral?
- When will the Arizona Legislature adjourn sine die?
Fischer: May 26
Goldstein: May 4
Roberts: April 22
- What will be the Republican – Democrat breakdown in Arizona Legislature?
Goldstein: 36-24 House; 18-12 Senate
Fischer: Returns to status quo before Begay switched parties
Roberts: 34-26 House; 17-13 Senate
- Does Sheriff Joe Arpaio win re-election?
Goldstein: Arpaio wins re-election
Fischer: Arpaio wins again
Roberts: If David Gonzalez runs in the General Election, he will beat Arpaio
- Will the Arizona Diamondbacks make the playoffs?
- Will the Phoenix Suns make the playoffs?
Fischer: Only to the first round
- Long Shot / Sure Thing Predictions:
Goldstein Sure Thing: At least one former Arizona Corporation Commissioner will run for the seat with an announcement in January.
Goldstein Long Shots: Doug Ducey as a finalist for VP on GOP ticket (out of final 3) and, Diamondbacks will make playoffs because they will fire Chip Hale and replace him from above with Tony La Russa.
Fischer Sure Thing: Supreme Court will reject challenge to Arizona redistricting letting it stand.
Fischer Long Shots: Kelli Ward gets 35% of the vote in GOP US Senate Primary and, Jeff Flake is appointed as US Ambassador to Cuba.
Roberts Sure Thing: Public schools will remain underfunded while the Legislature gives another tax cut.
Roberts Long Shot: No member of the ACC on the 2016 will be re-elected. Doug Ducey will seek to reform “dark money.”
Watch the entire episode to get the full details and reasons for their predictions.