Arizona Media Members Make Their 2016 Predictions

Everyone likes political predictions and these longtime media political reporters are no exception.

Barely edging out the competition on 2015 predictions, Capitol Media Services’ Howie Fischer returns alongside Steve Goldstein of KJZZ and replacing the recently retired Doug MacEachern is Arizona Republic columnist Laurie Roberts.

In the first eight minutes of the segment, Ted Simons reviews the panel’s 2015 predictions tallying up a win for Howie Fischer with 9 points to MacEachern and Goldstein’s eight points.

The remaining 18 minutes, Roberts, Goldstein and Fischer deliver their 2016 predictions. Here’s a summary of what they expect to happen in Arizona and national politics over the course of 2016:

  1. Republican Presidential Nominee?
    Roberts: Marco Rubio
    Fischer: Ted Cruz
    Goldstein: Jeb Bush
  2. Democrat Presidential Nominee?
    Goldstein: Hillary Clinton
    Fischer: Hillary Clinton
    Roberts: Hillary Clinton
  3. Who wins the Presidency?
    Fischer: Whoever the Republican is unless it’s Trump
    Goldstein: Jeb Bush
    Roberts: The Republican nominee unless Trump runs as an Independent
  4. What will be the final number of electoral votes?
    Roberts: 287
    Fischer: 295
    Goldstein: 276
  5. Who wins the US Senate race in Arizona?
    Goldstein: John McCain
    Roberts: John McCain
    Fischer: John McCain
  6. What will be the congressional delegation party breakdown?
    Fischer: 5-4 Republican
    Goldstein: 5-4 Republican
    Roberts: 6-3 Republican
  7. Will Donald Trump win a state primary?
    Goldstein: Yes, Trump will win South Carolina
    Fischer: Yes, several state primaries
    Roberts: No
  8. Who will win in Arizona’s Congressional District 1?
    Goldstein: Paul Babeu wins GOP nomination; Tom O’Halleran wins Democrat nomination & General Election
    Fischer: Babeu wins GOP nod; O’Halleran wins Dem not and ultimately CD-1 seat
    Roberts: O’Halleran wins Dem nomination; Gary Kiehne wins the seat for Republicans
  9. Will Democrats take over the US House?
    Fischer: No way
    Roberts: No way
    Goldstein: No way
  10. Will Republicans keep the US Senate?
    Goldstein: Yes
    Fischer: Yes
    Roberts: Yes
  11. How many initiatives on the 2016 Ballot?
    Fischer: Three
    Goldstein: Four
    Roberts: Five
  12. Will Marijuana make it on the ballot and pass?
    Roberts: Yes, but it will not pass
    Goldstein: Yes, but it will not pass
    Fischer: Yes, but it will not pass
  13. Will the May Special Election Education Funding Referral pass?
    Fischer: Yes
    Goldstein: Yes
    Roberts: Yes
  14. What will the winning percentage be for the education funding referral?
    Roberts: 72%
    Fischer: 66.666%
    Goldstein: 64%
  15. When will the Arizona Legislature adjourn sine die?
    Fischer: May 26
    Goldstein: May 4
    Roberts: April 22
  16. What will be the Republican – Democrat breakdown in Arizona Legislature?
    Goldstein: 36-24 House; 18-12 Senate
    Fischer: Returns to status quo before Begay switched parties
    Roberts: 34-26 House; 17-13 Senate
  17. Does Sheriff Joe Arpaio win re-election?
    Goldstein: Arpaio wins re-election
    Fischer: Arpaio wins again
    Roberts: If David Gonzalez runs in the General Election, he will beat Arpaio
  18. Will the Arizona Diamondbacks make the playoffs?
    Goldstein: Yes
    Roberts: Yes
    Fischer: No
  19. Will the Phoenix Suns make the playoffs?
    Fischer: Only to the first round
    Goldstein: No
    Roberts: No
  20. Long Shot / Sure Thing Predictions:
    Goldstein Sure Thing: At least one former Arizona Corporation Commissioner will run for the seat with an announcement in January.
    Goldstein Long Shots: Doug Ducey as a finalist for VP on GOP ticket (out of final 3) and, Diamondbacks will make playoffs because they will fire Chip Hale and replace him from above with Tony La Russa.
    Fischer Sure Thing: Supreme Court will reject challenge to Arizona redistricting letting it stand.
    Fischer Long Shots: Kelli Ward gets 35% of the vote in GOP US Senate Primary and, Jeff Flake is appointed as US Ambassador to Cuba.
    Roberts Sure Thing: Public schools will remain underfunded while the Legislature gives another tax cut.
    Roberts Long Shot: No member of the ACC on the 2016 will be re-elected. Doug Ducey will seek to reform “dark money.”

Watch the entire episode to get the full details and reasons for their predictions.

Poll: Hope and Change? The Future of America…

As we move into the next election cycle, what are your thoughts and feelings about the “health” of the Republic?

Democrat Amateurs Wanna Recall Diane Douglas

EGBThe Arizona Secretary of State provided notice today that a committee filed an application to recall Diane Douglas.

The committee calls itself “The Coalition to Recall Diane Douglas” and has listed Maxwell Goshert as its Chairman and David J. Bier as its Treasurer.

Who you won’t find on the official paperwork is Anthony Espinoza who originally beat his chest about starting the recall. That’s because Espinoza was discovered to be posting gay nude selfies across various websites which becomes a problem when you’re a technology teacher at a west valley elementary school trying to spearhead a major political campaign. Nevertheless, Espinoza remains associated with the recall effort as its “founder” which we find bizarre give political campaigns and their committees never use that title.

According to the application filing with the Secretary of State’s office, the grounds for the filing is:

“Since taking office in January 2015, Diane Douglas has demonstrated that she lacks the ability and expertise to serve professionally and politically in her elected position as the Arizona State Superintendent of Public Instruction. From a fiduciary standpoint, Superintendent Douglas has consistently and recklessly jeopardized valuable and vital education education funding due to her unwillingness to execute various federal and state education laws and State Board of Education policies. In regards to her leadership role, she has not upheld the virtue of the constitutional public office to which she was elected, refusing to fulfill not only her basic duties under A.R.S. 15-251 but also to adhere to the checks and balances of the Arizona state government system. Most importantly, she is not fulfilling her basic state duties superintending the schools of Arizona, focusing more on how to increase her power and position rather than how to increase student achievement, teacher effectiveness, school performance, stakeholder relations, and educational funding. Education is in a crisis fiscally, professionally, socially, and emotionally in Arizona. Education in Arizona needs a strong leader to lead its stakeholders and citizens during this time of crisis. Diane Douglas has proven she is not that leader.”

Whatever your opinion of Diane Douglas, these young naive liberal activists are amateurs.

Quick to respond to the filing, the Arizona Republican Party issued the following statement:

PHOENIX – This afternoon Chairman Robert Graham of the Arizona Republican Party brushed off the announcement from two voters in the Democratic Party that they would attempt to gather signatures to recall Diane Douglas, the Republican who was elected last year to serve as Arizona’s Superintendent of Public Instruction.

“It looks like these young Democrats are following the lead of their party elders and wasting time and money on useless complaining about the outcome of the election in which the Republicans clearly dominated the opposition,” said Arizona Republican Party Chairman Robert Graham. “We have frequent elections at every level of government in this nation for a reason, and as a party we fight hard on behalf of our platform and our candidates. It’s disrespectful to the voters for these Democrats to suddenly wake up and decide they know better than voters.”

Douglas received 740,000 votes in the 2014 election, which was more than enough votes to defeat her opponent for that office. Her vote total also exceeded the vote total for each and every one of the Democrats on the ballot running for statewide office: Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Mine Inspector, and Corporation Commission.

“Their plan is to raise and spend at least a million dollars to get enough signatures before the end of the year and they haven’t raised a dime yet, so I think they’re going to have a very disappointing Christmas,” Graham added.

Watch for this recall effort to fail miserably.

The Democratic Party establishment is silent and most likely publicly shunning the effort. (Not a byte on its website or Twitter feed.)

Amateurs are running the show and won’t have the support to collect the signatures to place it on the ballot.

In one year, Diane Douglas will still be the Superintendent of Public Instruction and these young activist will be a little bit wiser. Ironically, they’ll be able to thank their target for teaching them a hard lesson in political science.

 

 

Maricopa GOP Chair Rallies LD Censures

To all Arizona County and LD Republican Committee Chairmen –
Below is the front page article of the July 15 Arizona Capitol Times. I want to express my appreciation to those courageous and principled County and LD Republican Committees who have already conducted votes of “censure” and/or “no confidence.”
Jan Brewer, the legislators and their crony capitalist friends that support ObamaCare and Medicaid expansion have betrayed Americans, Arizona Republicans and the Republican Party Platform.  Their lack of ethics, integrity and egregious acts are motivated by only two things – greed and the lust for power – at the expense of hard working tax paying Americans.
The law was expected to cost $898 billion over the first decade when the bill was first passed, but this year the Congressional Budget Office revised that estimate to $1.85 trillion.  Money that will have to be borrowed from the Chinese or printed in the backroom of the Federal Reserve.  Latest polls indicate a majority of Americans are opposed to ObamaCare and Medicaid expansion with an overwhelming majority of Republicans in opposition.
During the past six months, we did everything we could to make a solid argument against ObamaCare and Medicaid expansion, we tried to reason with these people and even tried to make them see the light.  Unfortunately, our lobbying efforts fell on deaf ears and without success.
During one of Ronald Reagan’s difficult political battles he said,
               “When you can’t make them see the light, make them feel the heat.”
I’m asking all the County and LD Republican Committees to make these people feel the heat by passing public censures for their actions.  They are elitists who think what they have done should be forgiven. They are mistaken.  We are not going to be able to defeat all of them, but we can defeat a majority of them in the 2014 Primary Election.
You can go to “MCRC Briefs” and get examples of public censures that have already been passed.  http://briefs.maricopagop.org/  Just type “censure” in the search field on the left.
Warmest regards,
 A. J. LaFaro
Chairman, Maricopa County Republican Committee
P.S.  Please encourage all of your PCs to keep up their daily efforts in getting petition signatures for www.urapc.org  Getting ObamaCare and Medicaid expansion on the November 2014 ballot will be historic for Arizona’s grassroots conservatives.

Friday Poll: The Race for Arizona’s CD-1

We’re still in the early stages of the 2014 mid-term election and that means that individuals are starting to prepare to become candidates in campaigns for Congress.

With Ann Kirkpatrick in trouble in Arizona’s 1st Congressional district, we’re asking our readers to weigh in on who they best think would win back the district for Republicans.

Some of these names are confirmed but others are speculation or wishful thinking. Here’s your chance to vote:

Four More Years?

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Sometimes, we must see the future clearly to act boldly in the present.
Take a glimpse into the darkness of Obama’s America in 2016.
High unemployment. Record high gas prices. The Middle East in chaos.
Religion on the run. Record debt levels. America downsized.
America downgraded.

New Poll: Who will win the Republican nomination in CD-6?

Which Republican will win today’s Special Primary Election in CD-8?

2012 Predictions Anyone?

Happy New Years!

It’s that time again for political predictions!

This year, I’m self-limiting myself on predictions due to my unique position and the likelihood that whatever I say will probably anger several of my Republican friends.

Instead, I’m opening up predictions to our readers.

If you’d like to submit your safe predictions or an out-on-a-limb prediction and have it appear in the body of this post (with your name), email it to me at sonoranalliance@gmail.com. Otherwise, feel free to post it in the comments.

For starters, I’ll throw a few questions out to get things going:

  1. Who will win the US Senate race? Who will win the Republican and Democrat nominations?
  2. Who will win the Arizona Presidential Preference Election on February 28th?
  3. Who will win each of the Congressional Districts?
  4. Will Republicans retain a supermajority in both Houses of the Legislature?
  5. Will Sheriff Joe Arpaio be re-elected?
  6. Will Arizona media outlets survive another year?
  7. What will be the biggest political story for 2012?
  8. What will be the biggest political shock of 2012?

Have fun gesticulating, speculating, prognosticating and pontificating!

GOP Iowa Voters Sending a Message Using Ron Paul?

I love posing these questions on Sonoran Alliance because some readers fail to process the point of the post and get themselves in a tizzy.

Here’s the question (and I know our Ron Paul readers are going to love this):

The latest poll out of Iowa shows Ron Paul now leading the pack 23% to Romney at 20% and Gingrich at 14% (link). Are the voters of Iowa trying to send a message to the other nominees? What is that message? And if the premise is true nationally, when will they pull back from this game of political chicken and give Mitt Romney the official nod?

Or, will all this lead to a brokered convention?

Finally, does anyone doubt that the official GOP ticket will be Romney/Rubio?