Tempe – Travis Grantham, candidate for Congress in Arizona’s 9th Congressional District released the following statement today regarding his recent CD9 straw poll win.

“We are excited to have won the first straw poll in the race for congress here in Arizona’s ninth district and I am very appreciative of the support for my candidacy by many members of the Ahwatukee Tea Party. This symbolizes that my campaign’s message reaches across many political and organizational lines. This victory exemplifies that my message of lower taxes, reigning in government spending, decreasing government regulation and repealing unconstitutional laws like Obamacare is resonating with the people of Arizona. 

I look forward to continuing to build an open dialogue with all the voters in the ninth district and will continue to spread our message across District 9 as I strive to bring Arizona’s best interests to Washington D.C.” 

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Travis Grantham is a candidate for Arizona’s Ninth Congressional District. He serves as the Chief Operations Officer at International Air Response based at the Phoenix Mesa Gateway Airport. He is also a Captain and Pilot in the Arizona Air National Guard’s 161st Air Refueling Wing based out of Sky Harbor International Airport. Travis and his wife Patricia have two daughters.

PHOENIX—Today, Arizona political consulting firm DC London, Inc. released the most realistic poll of Arizona voters to date. Previous polls, conducted among only registered voters, failed to accurately portray the situation on the ground. This poll of likely voters, conducted by well-respected polling firm Magellan Strategies, shows the true picture: Arizona belongs to Mitt Romney.

Overall, Romney leads Obama 52 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and 54 percent to 42 percent among motivated voters. Arizonans don’t support Obama or his policies:

· 55 percent of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of President Obama

· 55 percent disapprove of his job performance

· 56 percent disapprove of the health care law

Further, Romney is up by nine percent among independents (49 percent to 40 percent) and by four percent among women (49 percent to 45 percent).

In 2008, McCain won Arizona 53.0 percent to 44.6 percent. Romney, as this poll shows, is well positioned to hold Arizona for the GOP.

In the U.S. Senate race, Jeff Flake has a 44 percent to 40 percent lead over Richard Carmona, while Wil Cardon leads Carmona by just 41 percent to 40 percent. And, in the generic congressional ballot, Republicans have a nine percent advantage over Democrats (50 percent to 41 percent).

“Despite wishful thinking by the Left, Arizona is, and will remain, a red state in 2012,” said Sean Noble, president of DC London, Inc. “Arizonans are ready to move ‘forward,’ but it’s going to be without Barack Obama in the White House.”

DC London, Inc. is an Arizona-based political consulting firm with offices in Phoenix and Washington, D.C. For more information, please visit www.dc-london.com or call (602) 606-2919.

To see the press release, crosstabs, and toplines from Magellan Strategies Click Here.

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Distributed by C O M M O N  S E N S E , in Arizona
Tuesday, May 1, 2012

The blog Western Free Press has put up a push-poll to ensure that untested, unreliable Republican Bob Worsley leads over Russell Pearce. Worsley does not have anything posted on the issues page of his campaign website. Where does he stand on illegal immigration? Abortion? Tax increases and spending? There is a reason why he has left this information off his website. Don’t let this blog skew the results of their poll. Vote for Russell now. http://www.westernfreepress.com/2012/05/01/poll-do-you-support-russell-pearce-or-bob-worsley-in-the-ld-25-senate-republican-primary/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=poll-do-you-support-russell-pearce-or-bob-worsley-in-the-ld-25-senate-republican-primary

TUCSON – In a straw poll of attendees following last night’s debate in Oro Valley, State Senator Frank Antenori was selected as the preferred candidate for the Republican nomination for Congress in CD-08 with more than 40% of the vote.

The winner of the poll, largely decided by voters who indicated at the beginning of the debate that they had not yet selected a candidate, was announced this morning on KVOI’s Wake Up Tucson program.

“There is a difference in this race,” Antenori said. “The other candidates all say nice things but not one of them has actually had a measurable impact on improving the economy by reducing the size and cost of government like I have.”

Antenori says he has “proven” his ability to “earn the support of Republicans, Independents, and conservative Democrats through his blunt spoken style, relentless advocacy for government reform and liberty. He was re-elected in the last election by over 60% of the vote in a district with only 43% Republicans.

“In America, one earns the right to be promoted based on performance. I am asking the voters for a promotion based upon my performance,” he said. “The other option is to pass over someone who has delivered for one who just walked in off the street.”

The results of the straw poll are as follows:

Frank Antenori – 48 Votes – 40%
Martha McSally – 30 Votes – 25%
Dave Sitton – 22 Votes – 18%
Jesse Kelly – 19 Votes – 16% 

Early voting is underway now and in-person voting for the primary will occur on April 17th.

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TUCSON, AZ – In a survey of Southern Arizona voters, over 78% of Democrats and Independents disapproved or strongly disapproved of Congressman Raul Grijalva’s performance as their congressman. Republican challenger, Gabriela Saucedo Mercer is the preferred choice of Independents and Republicans.

Congressman Grijalva called for a boycott of Arizona in his protest of immigration law passed by the state’s legislature. He struggled to secure a win in his last race for Congress against Republican opponent, Ruth McClung.

In the same poll, when asked which candidate voters favored between his new Republican opponent Gabriela Saucedo Mercer and Grijalva, 65% of Democrats and 43% of Independents choose Saucedo Mercer, and 30% of Democrats and 19% of Independents were undecided.

“The congressman turned his back on the people of Arizona. Rather than working with them on the difficult issues facing our region, he called for a boycott. At a time when other representatives were fighting to bring jobs back home to their states, Grijalva was destroying jobs in our state. When I get to the Capitol, I will work to create policies that will allow small business owners to put America and Arizona back to work,” said Saucedo Mercer.

The poll was commissioned by Arizona Strategies.

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 16, 2012
CONTACT: Adam Deguire

MEMORANDUM

In the race for the Republican nomination in Congressional District 5, former Congressman Matt Salmon continues to pull away from his only remaining opponent in every major element of the campaign – polling, fundraising, and endorsements. Since announcing his bid to return to Congress, Salmon has waged an aggressive campaign that has highlighted his experience, proven record and conservative principles as a public servant. As a result, two previous candidates have since dropped out of the race and Salmon has increased his lead over his remaining opponent according to the most recent poll. Furthermore, Salmon’s surge of momentum has also allowed him to outperform his opponent in fundraising by a 3 to 1 margin, and earned him several more endorsements from community officials, conservative leaders and pro-business groups.

Polling 

Arizona Opinion conducted a telephone survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters in the newly drawn Congressional District 5 on February 8-9, 2012. Here are the findings:

• Head to head: Salmon maintains a commanding 30 point lead over his opponent in the race for the Republican nomination, with 43.0% of respondents supporting Salmon versus 13.8% supporting his opponent.
• Name awareness: Salmon maintains a significant name ID advantage over his opponent, with 57.7% of respondents recognizing and responding to his name versus 24.7% recognizing and responding to the name of his opponent.
• Trusted to balance the budget: By over a 2 to 1 margin, 30.8% of respondents believe Salmon is better prepared to balance the federal budget, versus 13.5% for his opponent.
• Trusted to repeal Obamacare: By over a 2 to 1 margin, 31.8% of respondents believe Salmon is better prepared to repeal Obamacare, versus 13.5% for his opponent.
• Trusted to secure the borders: By nearly a 3 to 1 margin, 32.3% of respondents believe Salmon is better prepared to secure the borders, versus 10.8% for his opponent.
• Trusted to fight against special interests: By nearly a 3 to 1 margin, 32.0% of respondents believe Salmon is better prepared to stand up to Washington insiders, versus 11.0% for his opponent.

Methodology 

Arizona Opinion is an Arizona-based consulting firm with survey and other data-based research and focus groups and experience dating back to 1978. Dr. Margaret Kenski has served as a pollster for the Arizona Republican Party, Senator Jon Kyl, Congressmen Mo Udall, Jim Kolbe, and Jeff Flake, Governors Jane Dee Hull and Fife Symington, and numerous other state and local candidates. The survey had a margin of error of ±4.8% and over 85% of those surveyed said they were certain to vote in this August’s primary election.

Fundraising

• Superior fundraising: Salmon has now raised a total of more than $500,000 for his campaign to return to Congress, out raising his opponent the past two consecutive quarters (3rd and 4th of 2011), including out raising him $152,515 to $52,434 according to the latest finance report.
• COH advantage for the primary: Salmon currently has over $305,000 cash on hand, giving him a nearly $85,000 advantage over his opponent in money available to spend on the primary election.
• Gaining momentum among donors: Salmon has now received contributions from over 1,200 individual donors, with more than 500 of those contributing in the last three months of 2011.

Endorsements 

• Endorsed by local leaders: Salmon has been endorsed by East Valley mayors Scott Smith (Mesa), Jay Tibshraeny (Chandler), Hugh Hallman (Tempe), Gail Barney (Queen Creek), John Insalaco (Apache Junction), 4 Mesa Councilmembers, 2 Chandler Councilmembers, 7 East Valley state legislators, and Arizona Congressmen David Schweikert and Trent Franks.
• Widely supported by conservatives: Salmon has received endorsements from nationally prominent conservatives including Senators John Thune (South Dakota), Tom Coburn (Oklahoma) and Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania), Congressman Darrell Issa (CA-49), Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, and nationally recognized conservative groups like Club for Growth PAC and Team America PAC.
• Backed by pro-business organizations: Salmon is supported by numerous pro-business organizations including the Associated General Contractors of Arizona, Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association, and the National Association of REALTORS.

Conclusion 

Former Congressman Matt Salmon remains in strong front-runner status to win the Republican nomination for Arizona’s Congressional District 5. His remaining opponent suffers from severe disadvantages in polling, fundraising and endorsements, and these challenges will be further exacerbated as other competitive primary elections begin to dominate the Arizona political environment. Without the ability to outspend Salmon dollar for dollar in voter contact, we believe that Salmon’s opponent will be unable to make up a 30 point deficit in the polls and overcome the name awareness disadvantage he currently holds among Republican primary voters.

In the remaining months before the primary election, Salmon will continue to aggressively campaign throughout the district utilizing a strong grassroots and earned media operation, and continue to showcase his superior fundraising abilities. Given these resources, Salmon can expect to continue his surge towards the all-important “50% plus 1″ formula for electoral victory.

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To All Interested Parties:

Congressman Ben Quayle has decided to move Congressional districts and primary fellow-Republican David Schweikert in his distirct, AZ-06.

• Quayle’s home isn’t in AZ-06, it’s in AZ-09
• Quayle’s campaign office isn’t in AZ-06, it’s in AZ-09
• Quayle’s Congressional office isn’t in AZ-06, it’s in AZ-09

As this primary challenge gains attention, the choice for Arizona conservatives is clear. They support the Republican who lives in AZ-06 and who has served that very same community for 30+ years.

Since Ben Quayle’s announcement to “carpetbag” into Schweikert’s district, Arizonans have responded in backlash. This week the Schweikert campaign rolled out several prominant endorsements.

• Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery
• Phoenix City Councilman Sal DiCiccio
• Phoenix City Councilman Jim Waring
• Scottsdale Mayor Jim Lane
• State Senator Michele Reagan
• State Representative Michele Ugenti
• State Representative John Kavanagh

David’s campaign office opened this morning with a record-breaking volume of volunteer participation. In 2010, Schweikert’s ground operation was widely noted as being a model for campaigns across the country.

It is clear that David has the entire base of grassroots support in AZ-06 behind him.

Included is a polling memo for your interest. Please feel welcome to circulate. Of particular note are the favorable ballot numbers at the very bottom of the memo. Arizona primary voters who “like” both David and Ben choose David 56% – 31%. Even more impressive is the informed ballot of Arizona primary voters who have an “opinion” of David and Ben, either “favorable or unfavorable” choose David 57% – 31%.

PS: When you hear reports about the Schweikert/Quayle primary, please help us keep the facts straight, and if you need information or have a question, please don’t ever hesitate to ask!

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: January 26, 2012
CONTACT: Chris DeRose

Gould, Gosar effectively tied

San Tan Valley – Two polls conducted in the past week show a commanding lead for Sheriff Paul Babeu in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District.

Public Opinion Strategies conducted a survey of likely voters for the Babeu campaign, to determine their choice for Congress. The results were as follows:

Paul Babeu – 31%
Paul Gosar – 23%
Ron Gould – 19%

Of those who “definitely” know their choice, Babeu has double the support of both Gould and Gosar.

Definitely Paul Babeu – 21%
Definitely Paul Gosar – 12%
Definitely Ron Gould – 10%

“Babeu is well positioned to win this race,” said Glen Bolger, founding partner of Public Opinion Strategies. Babeu has solid leads among “very conservative voters, Tea Party supporters, strong NRA supporters, and base Republicans,” said Bolger, whose memorandum on this poll can be downloaded here.

Gosar recently announced his candidacy in a district 50 miles from his house, abandoning a district with 70% of his current constituents, citing his “base” in Yavapai County. Bolger called his support there “underwhelming.”

Babeu strategist Chris DeRose said “If this is Gosar’s base, I’d hate to see the part of the district that doesn’t like him. Voters in this new district won’t like his liberal record any more than the one he’s running from.”

These findings dovetail an independent poll published in the Arizona Capitol Times Yellow Sheet. That poll recorded 29% for Babeu, 19% for Gosar, and 17% for Gould.

Public Opinion Strategies is the most trusted name in Republican polling. Founded in 1991, it counts as clients 80 members of the House of Representatives, 19 United States Senators, and 6 governors.

Download the Public Opinion Strategies poll results here.
Download the Yellow Sheet poll results here.

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A Response to Senator Steve Smith

In his comments about recall elections the other day, Senator Steve Smith said, “We just witnessed how the radical left has used the recall system to defeat an opponent they could not and would not have been able to defeat in a standard election.”

The publicly-funded, freshman Senator from Pinal County may have some useful ideas for reforming the recall process.  (I feel we should get rid of paid petition circulators for recall elections!)  But Smith’s reference to the Pearce/Lewis election demonstrates a lack of understanding of what happened on the ground in Mesa.  More harmful to Republicans is that perpetuation of the “leftist takeover” narrative by Smith and others prevents some of the analysis and valuable learning that should be happening as a result of Lewis’ victory. Neither a “flawed recall process” nor “the radical left” caused Senator Pearce’s defeat.

Lewis won by a 12-point margin.  The financials, the polls, and the final vote tallies stubbornly support the case that Lewis would have won if this election had been a Republican primary.

The numbers
Registered Democrats comprise only 26% of LD18; which means they can’t impose their will on anyone.  They accounted for 28% of the vote total in the recall election, and of those, it is estimated that 36% of Democrats voted for Russell Pearce.  Republicans have many more LD18 voters, who further amplify their influence with a tendency to vote at a much greater rate.    Republicans formed 49% of the vote.  Republicans and Independents did the heavy lifting to get to the 55%-43% final margin of victory.

The Arizona Capitol Times conducted a poll the week before the election and found that 36.4% of Democrats were planning to vote for Russell Pearce.  If you start with that assumption, then assume Independents voted roughly in proportion to the final totals, Republicans ended up voting 51%-49% in favor of Lewis.  The actual votes by party are not published, so we must use polling.  The 36% Democratic vote for Pearce, and the slight Republican advantage for Lewis are both consistent with the Capitol Times poll and internal polling conducted by the Lewis campaign.  It is possible that Lewis performed better than the polls said among Democrats or Independents, which would lower his percentage among Republicans.  But one has to remember that Independents are allowed to vote in a primary of their choice, so Lewis would still win in a hypothetical “primary” vote created by removing all Democratic votes from the total.

It is impossible to know for certain how Lewis would have fared in a regular primary without the media attention, efforts by independent groups on either side, and without some of the trickery that ultimately backfired on Pearce.  The recall scenario didn’t break all in Lewis’ favor.  We know the special circumstances of the recall may have persuaded large numbers of Republicans to vote for Pearce, when they might have chosen another candidate in a normal primary.  They bought into the Pearce Campaign’s relentless arguments that the recall was a left-wing attack against the Republican Party, and that it was time for people to choose teams rather than evaluate candidates on merit.  It was a tactical error of the Lewis team to not counter by pointing out that Pearce himself had supported a recall effort against Sheriff Dupnik earlier in 2011 and said that the threshold for recalls was appropriately high.  We also could have reminded people that Pearce ally, EV Tea Party Chairman Greg Western, initiated a recall against fellow Republican Rich Crandall the year before.  Pearce’s hypocrisy, along with information like the ruling by the Arizona Supreme Court, which reaffirmed Constitutional language stating that recall elections do not require allegations of wrongdoing by elected officials, may have swayed some of those Republicans to drop their anti-recall-based support of Pearce. 

So what does it mean?
Many lessons of this election are portable.  The first point:  Pay attention to your constituents.  Pearce’s statewide and national list of endorsements was impressive, but Lewis lined up the majority of the leaders in Mesa, and voters trusted the people they know personally.  If donations were an indication of support, Lewis did a good job getting people in his district to invest in his campaign, and a review of Lewis’s donor list, debunks the “outside leftist radicals” story very nicely.  Lewis got 67% of his money from Mesa, 43% came from LD18, and only 2% from outside the state.  Even though he massively outspent Lewis, Pearce only got 4% of his money from LD18.  It doesn’t matter as much how popular you are beyond your constituency—they can’t vote for you.

The second point:  Priorities.  Voters felt that more attention needed to go to the economy and jobs and education.  Over and over again in meetings with small groups, voters said they felt like their priorities were taking a backseat to ideological hobbies.

A third point:  Voters said yet again in this election that they do not like dirty campaigning or angry politics.  The candidates at the top of the campaign can do a lot to set the tone, and can control their followers to a large degree.  The well-documented language and tactics used in this election may have made the final difference in the outcome.  You cannot take someone like Jerry Lewis, a highly respected, longstanding moral leader in the community, who as a seminary teacher had taught hundreds of students from hundreds of families throughout the district, and make scurrilous claims that “he steals from homeless children,” without being punished by voters for such offensive, unfounded, and overreaching slander.  Future candidates for office should look closely at this election and think long and hard about hiring consultants who promote such tactics.

Finally, any election involving Russell Pearce is also an election about immigration, and there are several things to learn here.  First is that people who oppose illegal immigration and support SB1070 and other tough laws, are not a mutually exclusive group separate from those who want solutions that would keep families together and let people rectify themselves with the law without necessarily deporting them.  There is significant overlap.  Dr. Bruce Merrill and the Morrison Institute for Public Policy released a survey last month of Arizonans that indicated 78% of heads of households favored, “…legislation that would allow these people to be put on a path to becoming American citizens if they have no criminal record either where they came from or here in Arizona if they pay a fine for coming into the country illegally, get a taxpayer I.D. number and demonstrate they can speak English.”  Republicans favored such measures by 69%.  Pearce and allies tout 70% support for SB1070, but then make the mistake of deriding those who oppose mass roundups or the equivalent of starve-outs as “open-border anarchists opposed to the rule of law.”  This alienates people, particularly those in the religious and business communities who feel we could tackle immigration problems in a way that solves the problem, helps the economy, and honors our Judeo-Christian values, without necessarily handing citizenship to millions who didn’t come here the right way.

Pearce’s tone on immigration alienates Hispanics.  Latinos favored Lewis by more than 3:1 according to polls.  That number alone should spark discussion about the way the Republican Party approaches the immigration issue.  Anyone looking at projected growth rates from the U.S. Census will see Hispanics’ rapidly growing role in American politics.  Many Hispanics are social conservatives with a tradition of working hard and wanting to keep the fruits of their labor—in other words, many Latinos should resonate to core messages of the Republican Party.  Yet they are put off by the angry rhetoric surrounding the immigration debate.  Arguments to secure the border and to deport felons or freeloaders make sense to most of us; but leaders who point to criminals as justification to round up farm workers and dishwashers present a non-sequitur that makes more sense to Hispanics when explained by xenophobia or racism.  While some Latinos support the approach championed by Pearce, one out of four Hispanic votes will not win the elections of the future for the Republican Party.  The approach championed by Pearce is politically short-sighted.  The Republican Party needs better leadership on the issue of immigration.

Spending too much time fretting over the recall provision in the Arizona Constitution will prevent conservatives from making the adjustments the Pearce recall should catalyze.

Tyler Montague is a lifelong Mesa resident who helped recruit and campaign for Jerry Lewis.  He currently serves as a vice-chair of the LD18 Republicans.

Here’s the question (and I know our Ron Paul readers are going to love this):

The latest poll out of Iowa shows Ron Paul now leading the pack 23% to Romney at 20% and Gingrich at 14% (link). Are the voters of Iowa trying to send a message to the other nominees? What is that message? And if the premise is true nationally, when will they pull back from this game of political chicken and give Mitt Romney the official nod?

Or, will all this lead to a brokered convention?

Finally, does anyone doubt that the official GOP ticket will be Romney/Rubio?

Small-business owners point to a way out of Arizona’s recession

PHOENIX, Ariz., Dec. 14, 2011 – Small-business owners believe Arizona needs further legislative action to spur job creation and overwhelmingly favor lowering the property tax burden on new equipment and machinery to do so, according to a special poll released today by their leading representative association.

“Small business wants job creation to continue to be the highest priority for Gov. Jan Brewer and the Arizona Legislature next session,” said Farrell Quinlan, Arizona state director for the National Federation of Independent Business, America’s largest small-business association. “Lowering the cost for small businesses to create jobs through meaningful property-tax relief and the further lifting of the regulatory burden will help restore Arizona’s economy and put our citizens back to work.”

The NFIB survey found near unanimous support among small business owners with 93 percent agreeing our leaders should keep job creation a high priority. It also found 77 percent of small business owners favor significantly increasing the amount of a business’ equipment and machinery that is exempt from personal property taxation.

The survey based its personal property tax questions on a legislative referral being developed by Senate Majority Leader Andy Biggs (Gilbert) and other lawmakers, including House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jack Harper (Surprise). The legislation, called the Small Business Job Creation Act, asks voters to increase the Arizona Constitution’s exemption for new equipment and machinery to an amount equal to the annual wages of 50 Arizona workers or approximately $2.3 million from the current $67,000.

The NFIB survey dramatically reveals that lowering the tax burden on a business’ equipment and machinery would lead to a burst of job creation from small businesses. When asked if Sen. Biggs’ proposal becomes law, 46 percent of small business owners said raising the personal property tax exemption would likely lead their businesses to hire new workers while 56 percent said such a move would likely result in more equipment and machinery purchases.

“Clearly Arizona’s economy has yet to recover and that’s born out in continued weak job creation numbers and Arizona’s unemployment rate remaining stuck at 9 percent,” said Quinlan. “Small businesses have historically led our state and nation out of recessions through creating new jobs and investing in the future. Small business’ message to our political leaders is unmistakable, job creation is the top issue and lowering small business’ cost of creating those jobs is a great place to start.”

The poll was conducted September 6 to October 21, 2011 with 496 respondents who are Arizona small business owners. The entire poll can be read by clicking here. Results from NFIB’s fuller, annual survey on other issues will be released in the coming weeks.

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NFIB is the nation’s leading small business association with offices in Washington, D.C., and all 50 state capitals. Founded in 1943 as a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, NFIB gives small and independent business owners a voice in shaping the public policy issues that affect their business. NFIB’s powerful network of grassroots activists send their views directly to state and federal lawmakers through our unique member-only ballot, thus playing a critical role in supporting America’s free enterprise system. NFIB’s mission is to promote and protect the right of our members to own, operate and grow their businesses. More information is available online at www.NFIB.com/newsroom.

Of course, the only people who should be making this decision are Russell Pearce and his wife and family.

We thought we’d throw out a few options in the form of a poll to see what our readers would like Senator Pearce to do next.

See poll on sidebar =>