New Poll: Mesa Residents Overwhelmingly Want Council Member To Resign After Second DUI Charge

Data Orbital

(Phoenix, AZ) – The Public Integrity Alliance recently commissioned two polls, both conducted by Data Orbital that shows Mesa Councilman Ryan Winkle largely favored to resign after second super extreme DUI arrest. Councilman Winkle, in his first time on the Mesa City Council, has faced recent scrutiny after an arrest in Tempe where he allegedly nearly hit pedestrians while swerving.

Data Orbital, a Phoenix based consulting firm, announced today the results of two surveys that asked Mesa residents city wide and specifically residents of Mesa District 3 (the district Mr. Winkle represents) their knowledge of the recent arrest and if the DUI was merit enough for him to be removed or asked to resign by the Mesa City Council.
The poll results, that were taken city wide and specifically in his home district Mesa 3, showed that 70% of people favored his removal/resignation while only 14% thought he should not be removed. Also, a little more than 40% of people were aware that this was his second DUI arrest.

Tyler Montague, President of Public Integrity Alliance had this to say:  “Councilmember Ryan Winkle has argued that he should remain in office in spite of his behavior because ‘his district wants him there’ because they elected him. Clearly that’s no longer the case. Integrity matters, and Winkle has lost the mandate to lead and should listen to the vast majority of Mesa residents who want him to resign.”

 

Data Orbital Poll

George Khalaf, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement: “It is clear that Mesa voters overwhelmingly want Mr. Winkle to step aside and allow the city to move forward in the process. While it is true that people deserve forgiveness, our elected officials are held to a higher standard and that is a standard Council member Winkle has now broken twice.”###

Survey One: IVR poll of 800 registered voters in the city of Mesa has a margin of error at plus or minus 3.5 percent, with a 95 percent confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off an Arizona registered voter file and responses were collected from automated landline surveys over three days. City Wide Toplines.

Survey Two: Live & IVR mix poll of 300 registered voters in Mesa City Council District 3 has a margin of error at plus or minus 5.7 percent, with a 95 percent confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off an Arizona registered voter file and responses were collected from live cell phone and automated land line surveys over three days. Mesa District 3 Toplines.

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Poll: Nearly Half of Voters Say Mesa Councilman Ryan Winkle Should Stay

OH Predictive

Over half aware of DUI citation, primarily through mass media

Phoenix, AZ (June 22, 2017) –  Arizona is never short of hot political issues or debates, and typically a City Council position gets little to no attention – that is until now. There have been ongoing conversations about whether Mesa City Councilman Ryan Winkle, District 3 should resign from office or remain in his position, following his May arrest on suspicion of DUI. We asked the voters of his district their opinions, and if they believe the Councilman of six months should resign or stay.

Nationally recognized polling firm, OH Predictive Insights, conducted a survey comprised of 304 currently registered Democratic, Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters registered in Mesa’s 3rd City Council District. The survey was conducted from June 8th to June 19th, with 49% of the sample contacted on their cellular phones, and 51% of the voters reached via landlines.

Among the results:

Ryan Winkle Poll

“While over half of Councilman Winkle’s constituents have heard of his recent DUI citation, he still holds a 2 to 1 positive favorability number to remain in his council seat,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “Nearly half of those polled think the Councilman should remain in office, approximately one-third of his constituents believe he should resign, and 17% did not indicate an opinion either way.”

Noble added, “In the eyes of the voter, Winkle is down, but definitely not out.”

Methodology: This live and automated caller survey was conducted by Phoenix based-OH Predictive Insights from June 8th to June 19th, 2017, from an active registered voter sample in Mesa City Council District 3.  The sample size was 304 completed surveys, with a MoE of +/-5.61%.  49% of surveys were conducted on cell phones and 51% via land lines.

View the press release online.

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Poll: Majority of Arizona Voters Don’t Need a Wall with Mexico

Only two-thirds of Republicans support;  conversely two-thirds of Independents oppose

Phoenix, AZ (May 4, 2017) –  Arizona is the catalyst for then candidate-now-President Donald Trump where he planted the flag opposing illegal immigration and building a wall along the U.S./Mexico border. We commissioned a poll with multiple questions and the border wall question was one of them – the results were shocking.

Arizona voters surprisingly don’t find a border wall with Mexico necessary with only 37% in agreement and 62% who disagree. In a survey commissioned by KTAR News with nationally recognized polling firm, OH Predictive Insights, 401 active registered Democratic, Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters across Arizona, based on current active voter registration numbers were sampled. Among the results:

“As Arizona’s News Station, we always want to understand how our community feels on issues key to them in the moment”, said VP/Programming Ryan Hatch.  “Polling Arizona voters on current issues like border security helps KTAR News report and talk about the news daily with an informed perspective.”

“The numbers were frankly shocking,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “When you have one-third of Republicans, 70% of Independents and almost all Democrats thinking a wall is not necessary that should raise a red flag.”

Methodology: This live and automated caller survey was conducted by Phoenix based-OH Predictive Insights on May 1st, 2017, from an active Arizona registered voter sample.  The sample size was 401 completed surveys, with a MoE of +/-4.89%.  35% of surveys were conducted on cell phones and 65% via land lines. The party affiliation, geographic, gender and age demographics accurately reflect active registered voters in Arizona in this sample.

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About OH Predictive Insights: Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159 www.OHpartners. com

New Poll Shows Christine Jones Leading in Arizona’s CD-5

OH Predictive Insights
Outsider Message Resonating in AZ05 Congressional Race

PHOENIX (July 21, 2016) — Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, which holds the reputation of one of the securest Republican seats in the country, is set to elect a new congressman this November. Within the past seven weeks the race has changed, as outsider Christine Jones has surged into the lead with only two weeks until early voting begins for the primary election.

In a survey conducted on July 19 of 408 likely Republican primary voters, undecided voters have dropped 26 percentage points since the last poll conducted on June 2. Despite the competition seen in the June 2 poll, the race has tightened up and Christine Jones now sits atop of the respective Republican field, ahead her nearest competitor by 7 percentage points.

AZ05PollSheet1

“Within the last seven weeks Christine Jones came from almost last place to now leading one of the most sought-after congressional seats in the country,” Mike Noble, Pollster & Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights, said. “This is an election cycle unlike any other and Christine Jones is a perfect example of why this cycle may be forever referred to as, ‘The Year of the Outsider.’”

AZ05PollSheet2

*May not equal 100% due to rounding

“When it comes to the battle of the faith vote Andy Biggs and Don Stapley garned just over half of the LDS demographic.  Christine Jones made significant improvement in the other non-LDS religious communities,” Noble added.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on July 19, 2016, from a sample of likely Republican Primary voters across Arizona who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the upcoming Arizona Republican Primary for Congress. The sample size was 408 completed surveys, with a Margin of Error of +/-4.84%

Read the press release online.

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About OH Predictive Insights
With Owens Harkey Advertising’s marketing and creative service resources coupled with OH Strategic Communication’s unparalleled messaging and strategic planning expertise, OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing. Leading Arizona pollster Michael Noble from MBQF Consulting brings proprietary social statistics software and services to OH Predictive Insights providing clients with tools to solve their most challenging problems. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159.

POLL: The Republican Race for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District

Poll: Prop 123 Shows Strong Numbers With Early Voting Underway

Predictive Insights

Bi-partisan support for prop 123

PHOENIX (April 27, 2016) — Arizona’s special election for two statewide initiatives including the education bill, Proposition 123, will be voted on May 17th, 2016.

In a survey of 665 likely special election voters, 59.7 percent said they would vote in favor of Prop 123.

Prop 123 – Education Funding
April 25, 2016 Results
Definitely Yes 38.5%
Probably Yes 21.2%
Probably No 9%
Definitely No 24.4%
Unsure/Undecided 6.9%

“Early indicators show strong support for Proposition 123 across all demographics,” Mike Noble, Pollster & Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights said, “It is surprising to see only 6.9% of likely voters are undecided which tells us voters are keenly aware of the measure.  If you hear someone talking about this next time you are in-line at the grocery store – don’t be surprised.”

Wes Gullett, Partner in OH Predictive Insights and political consultant was impressed that the Yes vote is strong across all demographics and was cautiously positive about the results. “Democrats, Republicans and Independents are all voting yes close to 60%.  However, with ballot measures typically the ‘No’ vote does a better than the polling on election day so the Yes side needs to have a strong turnout of supporters over the next three weeks,” Gullett said.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on April 25th, 2016, from a sample of likely special election voters from across Arizona who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2016 May 17th special election in Arizona. The sample size was 665 completed surveys, with a Margin of Error of ± 3.8%

Arizona Republic: Poll shows Arizona marijuana-legalization campaign could fail if voted on today

Arizona Republic: Poll shows Arizona marijuana-legalization campaign could fail if voted on today

As seen on AZCentral.com

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez
April 20, 2016

If a vote were taken today, Arizonans could reject an initiative to legalize recreational use of marijuana by adults, according to a poll released by the campaign opposing the plan.

The survey shows 43 percent of likely voters support legalizing marijuana for recreational use while 49 percent would vote against it. About 8 percent of likely voters were undecided. The telephone survey has a margin of error of about 4 percent.

Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy released the poll on the eve of 4/20, a day on which the drug culture celebrates and consumes cannabis.

The Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol is gathering signatures to put an initiative on the November ballot that would allow people age 21 and older to carry up to 1 ounce of marijuana and grow up to 12 plants in a home occupied by at least two people, without obtaining licenses. It would also create a distribution system similar to Colorado’s, where licensed businesses produce and sell marijuana, which would be taxed.

Barrett Marson, spokesman for the legalization campaign, said of the poll results: “We look forward to a vigorous campaign informing voters of the benefits of ending the failed policy of prohibition. By regulating and taxing marijuana, we benefit our schools and keep it out of the hands of teens.”

The poll, released to The Arizona Republic on Tuesday, shows voters could narrowly oppose the measure. According to the survey of 500 likely voters conducted April 11 through April 14:

  • When asked if they would be more or less likely to support the ballot measure if they knew recreational marijuana would be taxed at 15 percent and the funds would go to public health and education, 50 percent said they would be more likely to support the measure, while 29 percent said they would be less likely to support it. Eighteen percent said the tax would not really change their decision, while 4 percent were undecided and 1 percent wouldn’t answer the question.
  • About 19 percent said they would be more likely to support legalization in Arizona after being told teen use of the drug here is 70 percent higher than the national average. About 53 percent said they would be less likely to vote for the measure, 21 percent said they still held the same view, 6 percent were undecided and 1 percent wouldn’t answer the question.
  • Asked if they knew the measure would allow growth of up to 12 plants in their homes and allow them to smoke in their backyard, 31 percent said they would be more likely to vote for it, 52 percent would be less likely, 13 percent said their opinion remained about the same, 3 percent were undecided and 1 percent refused to answer.

Of those who responded, 39 percent were Republican, 33 percent were Democrat, 28 percent were independent, and 1 percent didn’t know their affiliation. About 36 percent were 65 or older, 21 percent were 55-64 years old, 17 percent were 45-54 years old, 13 percent were 35-44 years old and 13 percent were 18-34 years old.

Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy argues legalization could upend decades of policies surrounding substance-abuse prevention, law-enforcement and health. They argue legalization could lead to the abuse of marijuana and negatively impact the workplace.

The group’s leaders, Yavapai County Attorney Sheila Polk and radio host Seth Leibsohn, say legalization could lead to increased incidents of impaired driving and lead to accidental ingestion by youth who may find marijuana-laced cookies and candies enticing without knowing they contain the drug.

“Advocates for recreational marijuana argue that legalization is inevitable, but this poll shows it’s just not true,” Leibsohn said in a statement. “Arizonans are beginning to understand that today’s marijuana is not the marijuana of the past. It’s a great deal more potent — practically a different drug — and is made attractive to youth in seemingly innocuous candies like gummy bears.”

Campaign officials argue prohibition of the drug has been a failure, and it’s in the public’s best interest to try to regulate and tax it.

Taxation of the proposed program would pay the state’s cost of implementing and enforcing the initiative. Forty percent of the taxes on marijuana would be directed to the Department of Education for construction, maintenance and operation costs, including salaries of K-12 teachers. Another 40 percent would be set aside for full-day kindergarten programs. Twenty percent would go to the state Department of Health Services for unspecified uses.

A state Department of Marijuana Licenses and Control would regulate the “cultivation, manufacturing, testing, transportation and sale of marijuana” and would give local governments the authority to regulate and ban marijuana stores. Current medical-marijuana dispensary owners would get first dibs on licenses for the stores.

Poll: Maricopa Voters Satisfied with Diamondbacks Stadium

MBQF

Diamondbacks face a hard sell to Maricopa County Voters for Stadium Funds

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public opinion survey consulting firm, announced today the results of a recent public opinion survey conducted on March 24, 2016. Results from the automated survey show likely Maricopa County voters who responded “Yes” to having attended an Arizona Diamondbacks game within the last 2 years. MoE of ± 5.59 and 407 total respondents.

The Question was read as follows:

In your opinion, when you were there, what would you judge the condition of the stadium?

Very Good – 61.2%
Good – 31.9%
Poor – 2%
Very Poor – 1%
No Opinion – 3.9%

The Arizona Diamondbacks are requesting 200 million dollar upgrade for deferred maintenance and upgrades to the stadium. As a Maricopa County taxpayer, would you support spending tax dollars for this?

Yes – 18.9%
No – 62.7%
Not Sure/Undecided – 18.4%

MBQF Principal Mike Noble concluded, “The Arizona Diamondbacks desire for taxpayers to step up to the plate with nearly $200 million is a big swing and a miss,” Noble said. “Fans believe Chase Field is still a first-class facility and prefer to sing Take Me Out to the Ballgame at the corner of Jefferson and 4th Street.”

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POLL: Donald Trump on Track to win Arizona

MBQF

Trump and Cruz supporters bullish on the future of the party

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning the remaining four GOP candidates for president of the United States of America.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 751 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on March 8, 2016, the survey calculates a 3.57% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

PPPPoll

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement, “With early voting already underway in Arizona, Donald Trump leads with both those voters that have already cast ballots as well as among those that are still planning on voting.”

Noble added, “In addition to the ballot test, we also asked both groups whether they believed if the Republican party’s best days were ahead of them or behind them. The survey found that the majority of those supporting Donald Trump and Ted Cruz felt the party’s best days were ahead of them while those supporting Marco Rubio and John Kasich felt the opposite. This finding was consistent between both groups. ”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.57%.

POLL: The Republican Nominee for AZ01