Poll: Who Will You Vote For As Arizona Attorney General?

Latest Poll Shows Doug Ducey Leading Pack by 11 Points

Reposted from Conservative Leadership for Arizona:

PHOENIX, AZ – This week Conservative Leadership for Arizona and Harper Polling conducted a poll of likely Republican primary voters in Arizona.  Results revealed that Arizona Treasurer and entrepreneur Doug Ducey leads the pack with 26%.  Christine Jones and Scott Smith are tied for second with 15%

Below is a comparison of the ballot test in all five polls Conservative Leadership for Arizona has commissioned:

April 10*   May 15*    June 5*    July 11*    July 30*

Bennett   15%        13%          12%        11%          12%

Ducey      9%          27%         28%         26%          26%

Jones      14%        12%          12%         22%         15%

Smith       6%          12%          16%         14%         15%

Thomas   6%           6%            5%           6%           11%

Riggs       1%           1%            2%           2%            5%

Undecided 45%     28%           23%        19%          16%

CLA Chairman Sean Noble said, “Our latest poll shows that while some candidates experienced bumps in their numbers, they have only been temporary.  As the election gets closer and Arizonans learn more about the candidates, Ducey’s lead over Smith and Jones has grown.  While there has been some rearranging of the orchestra, the first chair has been occupied by Ducey.”

For more information on Conservative Leadership for Arizona and to view the full poll results, visit www.conservativeleadershipaz.com.

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*Polls conducted by Magellan Strategies.

CLA AZ GOP Primary Topline Results — July 30, 2014

New Poll: What is the MOST important issue in the Governor’s Race?

Poll: What Should John Huppenthal Do?

Mark Brnovich Leading in New Poll Among Arizona GOP Primary Voters

Mark Brnovich- skinny horizontal logo

 

Mark Brnovich Leading in New Poll Among Arizona
GOP Primary Voters

A new poll released today by Magellan Strategies of likely Arizona GOP primary voters shows that political challenger and former prosecutor Mark Brnovich is now leading incumbent Attorney General Tom Horne in the August Republican primary. 33% of the respondents are supporting Brnovich compared to 32% for Horne, while 35% are undecided.

The polling results are consistent with previous internal polling that has shown Brnovich within single digits of the turmoiled incumbent.

The poll also shows that Tom Horne’s favorability ratings have dropped as allegations of illegal activity continue to swirl around his conduct and that of his campaign. 49% of GOP primary voters have an “unfavorable” opinion of Tom Horne, compared to 24% who have a “favorable” opinion of him.

“This poll reflects what we’ve known all along,” said Ryan Anderson, Brnovich’s campaign manager. “Republican primary voters are looking for an alternative to the scandal-plagued tenure of Tom Horne. Horne’s support has hit a ceiling and the only remaining question is how low can he fall? In contrast, Mark Brnovich has momentum and his support is growing.”

He continued: “We have focused almost entirely on a grassroots campaign and earned media and the results are paying off. Republican voters have not only found an alternative in Mark Brnovich, but they’ve rallied around a more qualified candidate who can actually win this November.”

The Magellan Strategies poll was conducted May 13-14 among 760 likely Arizona GOP primary voters. The MOE is 3.55%.

To learn more about Mark Brnovich, visit www.Mark4AZ.com. To view a copy of the poll, click here.

 

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Poll: What is your understanding of Arizona’s SB 1062?

State Senator Al Melvin Posts Strong Finish in AZ Capitol Times Online Poll

Melvin Letterhead Art

“Again, we had another strong showing in an online poll on the Governor’s race.  With nearly 9,000 votes cast, a strong second place finish is great considering how far we have to go before the August primary.  It just goes to show what a bold agenda can do.” – Al Melvin

State Treasurer Doug Ducey was the top vote-getter in the poll, but Melvin finished second, besting Secretary of State Ken Bennett by five percent and nearly doubling the votes received by the lone Democrat candidate in the poll.

Cap Times Poll

“When you consider the statewide name ID of some of the candidates on that list, it is certainly encouraging to see that kind of growth in Senator Melvin’s support.” said Constantin Querard, a consultant to the campaign.  “We know the poll is not a scientific measurement, but even as an anecdotal one, it speaks volumes to the Senator’s hard work around the state and his improving position in the race.”

The Capitol Times polls follows a recent online Tea Party poll that showed Melvin crushing the field among self-identified Tea Party voters.

Melvin serves as Chairman of the Commerce, Energy and Military Committee and founded the highly successful Mining Caucus and Tourism Caucus. He has had a long business career in international trade and transportation, is a graduate of the US Merchant Marine Academy, Kings Point, NY and received his MBA degree from Thunderbird-School of Global Management in Glendale, AZ.  Prior to his election to the Senate, he taught college level courses as an adjunct, in economics, international business and management.

Melvin is a military veteran and graduate of the US Naval War College. He was awarded the Legion of Merit for his service as Squadron Commander of COMPSRONTWO, then the largest ship squadron in the US Navy (14 ships) based at the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. In 1999, after 30 years in the US Naval Reserve, he retired as a Navy Captain, the equivalent of a full colonel.

He is a member of the VFW, American Legion, Military Officers of America and other military related organizations.  Sen. Melvin is a life Member of the NRA (National Rifle Association).  He is a member of the Elks, Rotary and Knights of Columbus, and he remains a proud Eagle Scout (class of ’61).

Al and his wife Kou reside in SaddleBrooke in Pinal County, just north of Tucson and attend Santa Catalina Catholic Church in Catalina.

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Adam Kwasman, Ann Kirkpatrick Tied in Congressional Race

Incumbent dangerously below 50% 

Oro Valley – State Representative and congressional candidate Adam Kwasman commissioned McLaughlin and Associates to survey likely general election voters in Arizona’s First Congressional District.  A summary of the results can be seen below.  

TO:           Interested Parties

FROM:     John McLaughlin and Rob Schmidt

RE:          Arizona CD 1 Survey – Key Findings

Date:        December 12, 2013_____________________________________________________________________

Key Findings

1.     State Representative Adam Kwasman is statistically tied with the incumbent, Ann Kirkpatrick, who is dangerously far from the margin needed for re-election. 

Among those most likely to vote, 42% preferred Kwasman and 41% selected Kirkpatrick. Overall, 42.7% of all likely voters chose Kirkpatrick to 40% who preferred Kwasman, a statistical tie, with eleven months remaining in the election.  42.7% is a dangerously low level of support for any incumbent.

2.     Kwasman has nearly unlimited room to grow; Kirkpatrick, with 92.7% name identification, is unlikely to increase her numbers.

Kirkpatrick is nearly universally known after her three races for Congress.  Notably, she has fallen far from the 48% share of the vote she won in 2012.  Kwasman is known by only 23.7% of the voters.

3.     Kirkpatrick’s core support is anemic

After three elections for Congress, only 23.7% of the voters will definitely support Kirkpatrick.

4.     Voters overwhelmingly prefer a Republican check on the president to a Democrat who will hand the president a blank check. 

By a margin of 53.3% to 37.7%, voters selected a Republican member of Congress who would serve as “a check and balance to President Obama” versus a “Democrat who will help President Obama pass his agenda.”  This is unsurprising, in light of the President’s 40.7% – 56.7% job approval/disapproval rating.  Kirkpatrick, who famously said that she would not second guess this President, has positioned herself sharply at odds with her constituents.

The Bottom Line 

Ann Kirkpatrick is in greater jeopardy of losing her seat than previously thought.  Though nearly universally known, her support is far from what is necessary to secure another term.  All of this is predicated on the same turnout model that elected Kirkpatrick in 2012. If Republican turnout increases as a share of the electorate, as it has in previous midterm elections, then the above numbers grow considerably worse for Kirkpatrick.

 

Demographic Breakdown:

PARTY % AGE TOTAL
Republican 36% Under 40 23%
Democrat 39% 41 – 55 21%
Independent/Other 23% 56 – 65 29%
IDEOLOGY % Over 65 26%
Liberal 23% GENDER %
Moderate 27% Male 47%
Conservative 45% Female 53%
RACE % AREA %
White 65% Apache County 10%
Hispanic 21% Phoenix Media Market 71%
Native American 5% Pima County 19%
Other 3% STATE LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT %
OBAMA JOB RATING % Kwasman (LD 11) 32%
Approve 41% Rest of District 68%
Disapprove 57%

*Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology: This survey of 300 likely 2014 general election voters in Arizona’s first congressional district was conducted on December 9th and 10th, 2013. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a general election. This poll of 300 likely 2014 general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 5.7% at a 95% confidence interval.
For more information about Adam Kwasman’s campaign for Congress, please visit www.AdamKwasman.com.

New Poll Shows Competitive Republican Primary Race, Approvals

Susquehanna Polling & Research Poll Finds Bennett in the Lead

Phoenix, AZ, DEC. 10, 2013—Current Secretary of State and former Senate president Ken Bennett is the early favorite in the upcoming Republican primary for governor, according to the latest poll from Susquehanna Polling & Research. He leads with 20% of the vote in a potential 6-way primary against State Treasurer Doug Ducey (8%) and Mesa Mayor Scott Smith (6%), who is still an undeclared candidate. Both Christine Jones, former GoDaddy attorney and Andrew Thomas, former Maricopa County attorney, have 4% of the vote each. Al Melvin, a current state senator from Tucson is last at 2%, while 53% remain undecided.

The following points include key findings from the poll, which was conducted from November 27th to December 4, 2013:

  • “Given the high undecided, it’s still way too early to predict a victory for anyone,” Jim Lee, President of Susquehanna Polling & Research said. However, because Bennett is the favorite with the Latter Day Saint (LDS) community and the tea party, his support will be harder to crack than other business and establishment type candidates. On the other hand, both Ducey and Jones are expected to raise millions of dollars to increase their statewide name ID (not including IE’s), while Bennett is relying on public funds. To their advantage, both Ducey and Bennett have experience running a statewide race. However, there is also a chance they will split the conservative vote, opening the door for Jones. “In a six-way race with at least four of the six considered formidable, whichever candidate gets 25% to 35% of the vote could be the winner in a low turnout type election typical of primaries,” Lee said.
  • Regardless of who wins the primary, two potential matchups of GOP candidates against presumptive Democratic nominee Fred DuVal shows both Bennett and Ducey with small leads over their Democrat opponent. Bennett leads DuVal 38-33, while Ducey leads DuVal 36-33. Both Bennett and Ducey do equally well against DuVal with Republicans, at 64-10 and 60-9, respectively. One of DuVal’s advantages could be the absence of a contested primary and the ability to harness resources, while a competitive and hotly contested GOP field could produce a damaged GOP nominee. “Nonetheless, the closeness of both races show that the governor’s race next November could be very competitive regardless of whom the nominees are,” Leslie Kelly, Regional Director of Business Development said.
  • Another question that may give insights into the race is the poll’s right direction/wrong track question. Currently, 49% say Arizona is headed in the wrong direction, while 39% say the state is on the right track. This negative result could suggest a sentiment for change, or some discontent with the status quo which potentially benefits DuVal and/or the Democrats if they campaign as agents of change with a new direction for the state. Republicans say the state is going in the right direction by a 51-36 margin, while Democrats lean “wrong” track by a 66:20 or better than a 3:1 margin. Independents are nearly divided (42-49 in favor of wrong track).

Methodology

This poll was conducted by Voter Survey Service, a division of Susquehanna Polling and Research in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Completed interviews were conducted November 27-December 4, 2013 with 600 registered voters, all of whom have vote history in past general elections (i.e., G2012, G2010 and/or G2008). Calls are made from a voter registration list purchased from our telephone list vendor, Labels & Lists, specializing in updated voter registration records for the state of Arizona. The sample frame was a landline telephone sample, with mixed modality including interviews conducted via live telephone agents using our professionally-trained survey research staff from our telephone call center in Harrisburg, as well as interviews conducted with automated polling software. Interviews are conducted randomly using probability-based sampling designs and closely monitored to ensure a representative sample of Arizona’s electorate is achieved based on geography, gender, age, party affiliation and other demographics; results are sometimes statistically weighted to account for either non-response or coverage bias. This poll was not paid for by any political party, candidate for public office or other group and was conducted mainly for public
dissemination and internal analysis.

The margin of error for a sample size of 600 interviews is +/-4.00% at the 95% confidence level.

© Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc. is a nationally known survey research and polling firm for both candidates for public office (GOP only) as well as various corporations, association clients and media outlets. Voter Survey Service (VSS) is a division of SP&R and conducts surveys in more than a dozen states including Pennsylvania, Arizona, Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, West Virginia and others. SP&R recently served as the pollster for Mayor-elect Don Guardian in his historic upset victory in the 11/5 mayoral election in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
More information about our firm can be found at www.susquehannapolling.com.

SPR121013

State Senator Al Melvin Handily Wins Online Tea Party Straw Poll for AZ Governor

Melvin Letterhead Art

“We all know the difference between scientific polls and straw polls, but we are very encouraged at the success we enjoyed in the Greater Phoenix Tea Party Patriots poll.” – Al Melvin

The third-term Senator was the clear winner in the online poll that allowed participants to vote for any of the declared candidates for Governor.  With nearly 1,000 responses compiled, Melvin had 44% of the vote.

AZGOV Tea Party Poll Results Screen Shot 2013-10-09 at 9.10.38 AM

“There are candidates who talk about what they will do if elected and then there is Al Melvin, who can also talk about what he has actually done since being elected.” said Joe Boogaart, himself an organizer for Melvin’s campaign.

Boogaart added, “Al Melvin offers bold reforms and real proposals to create growth on a massive scale.  He offers an impassioned defense of Arizona’s rights in the face of an ever-encroaching federal government, and he proposes education reform that finally and firmly shifts the power away from bureaucracies and into the hands of parents where it belongs.  And he gets to back up these promises with a real record of standing tall for conservatives.”

Melvin serves as Chairman of the Commerce, Energy and Military Committee and founded the highly successful Mining Caucus and Tourism Caucus. He has had a long business career in international trade and transportation, is a graduate of the US Merchant Marine Academy, Kings Point, NY and received his MBA degree from Thunderbird-School of Global Management in Glendale, AZ.  Prior to his election to the Senate, he taught college level courses as an adjunct, in economics, international business and management.

Melvin is a military veteran and graduate of the US Naval War College. He was awarded the Legion of Merit for his service as Squadron Commander of COMPSRONTWO, then the largest ship squadron in the US Navy (14 ships) based at the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. In 1999, after 30 years in the US Naval Reserve, he retired as a Navy Captain, the equivalent of a full colonel.

He is a member of the VFW, American Legion, Military Officers of America and other military related organizations.  Sen. Melvin is a life Member of the NRA (National Rifle Association).  He is a member of the Elks, Rotary and Knights of Columbus, and he remains a proud Eagle Scout (class of ’61).

Al and his wife Kou reside in SaddleBrooke in Pinal County, just north of Tucson and attend Santa Catalina Catholic Church in Catalina.

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