Polls


[Ran across this press released today and now the Arizona Guardian is reporting that Sen. Thayer Vershoor has formed the "Axe The Tax - No on 100" committee to fight Jan Brewer's signature policy priority... apparently the Arizona GOP Governor Primary has been advanced to Tuesday, May 18th.  MBW]

Seven in 10 entrepreneurs saying ‘No’ to 1¢ sales tax increase

PHOENIX, Ariz., Feb. 25, 2010 – Results from a special poll of Arizona small business owners released today by their leading representative association show 71 percent of them voting ‘No’ on Proposition 100, the May 18 ballot referendum seeking a three-year, 1¢ increase in the state sales tax.

“The response to this special survey of our members on Proposition 100 came back fast and emphatic,” said Farrell Quinlan, Arizona state director for the National Federation of Independent Business, Arizona’s and America’s leading small business association. “NFIB/Arizona is actively exploring how our organization and members can be most effective in the campaign to defeat Proposition 100. Small business owners’ opposition to increasing the sales tax is overwhelming and their voice will be heard during the statewide debate over raising our taxes.”

Unique among most associations, NFIB bases its legislative lobbying positions and political action solely on what its members tell it, through regular balloting, are the issues vital to their survival as small business owners. The special ballot on Proposition 100 was faxed and e-mailed February 17-19.

“In conversations I’ve had with many of our members, there seems to be an over-arching attitude that they spend their daily lives balancing revenues with expenditures so they expect state government to do the same,” said Quinlan. “Arizona is not an under-taxed state. We have the fifth-highest sales-tax burden in the nation. The average Arizonan annually pays $1,440.83 in sales taxes, which is 43 percent above the national average. Add to this income taxes and the new state property tax we all pay and Arizonans are indignant that the state must make do with what it has.”

Should Proposition 100, adding 1-cent to the state sales tax rate for 3 years, be passed into law?

Yes   24.8%
No  70.6%
Undecided  4.6%

NFIB is the nation’s leading small business association, with offices in Washington, D.C. and all 50 state capitals. Founded in 1943 as a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, NFIB gives small and independent business owners a voice in shaping the public policy issues that affect their business. NFIB’s powerful network of grassroots activists send their views directly to state and federal lawmakers through our unique member-only ballot, thus playing a critical role in supporting America’s free enterprise system. NFIB’s mission is to promote and protect the right of our members to own, operate and grow their businesses. More information is available online at www.NFIB.com/newsroom.

Jon AltmannBy Jon C. Altmann

Are you a Phoenix voter? Think you are you paying too many city taxes? Get ready to pay more.

Six of nine Phoenix Council members voted February 2nd to tax food and groceries for the first time in more than 25 years – for only an extra 2%! And no April Fools, it takes effect on April 1st.

This comes on the heals of a rate hike of 12% for city water and 7% for city sewers that take effect on March 3rd. By the way, in public testimony, the water services director admitted the rate hike would preserve about 120 open jobs that other city employees could transfer to “in case of layoffs.”

Let’s not even talk about that Mesa wants to increase the rental car tax across the Valley to build major league baseball another stadium or that we will have a vote on a statewide sales tax this spring. That is pending State Legislative authorization.

The Phoenix Council food sales tax vote came with only 24 hours notice, having been added to the agenda at the last minute by Mayor Phil Gordon. Phoenix Councilman Bill Gates questioned the tactic, saying it ran against the “Phoenix process” that had allowed voters a series of budget hearings before any budget or tax votes in the past.

Phoenix Libertarians have filed a referendum campaign with Phoenix and have until March 1 to get about 9,600 signatures to force the food tax to public vote.

Want to help? Several Republican activists and others do and have already joined to get signatures. Petition circulators must be Phoenix voters and can call 602-595-5451 or email: info@phoenixlibertarians.org.

Jim Ianuzzo, Maricopa County Libertarian Party Chair is one of the key people in the effort. Ianuzzo, famous for being part of the Goldwater Institute’s lawsuit against the Phoenix CityNorth zoning tax rebate deal, has found another cause to hold the City Council’s feet to the fire. Ianuzzo said they are aiming for 15,000 signatures to get the referendum on the ballot, despite the city charter requirement of less than 30 days to gather the signatures.

A succesful filing puts a red light on the tax and a failure at the polls kills off the city from using that tactic. How’s that for a political photo radar catch?

The day after the vote, Phoenix City Councilman Bill Gates did a robodial call telling his constituents he did not support the sales tax vote and encouraging everyone to show up at the city council budget hearings (see the hearing schedule: http://phoenix.gov/budget/hearings.html )

Gates, who paid for the robodial out of his own campaign funds, said in the 90 second spot “On Tuesday, a majority of my colleagues on the city council and the mayor voted to impose a food tax. I am disappointed this tax was passed before you got to weigh in on the food tax.”

This is probably the first time a Phoenix councilmember waging a robodial on a council vote in a non-city election period.

Never one to miss articulating a tax issue, State Treasurer Dean Martin told me at Tuesday nights LD11 Republican meeting “I think the citizens of Phoenix will find it hard to stomach a food sales tax.”

Bill GatesIanuzzo said he got a call from a reporter telling him that Summit Consulting was already doing a poll on the food sales tax and the count was running heavily against the tax. Summit did not return my call by press time to comment. If true, the tummy upset Treasurer Martin punted may now be major voter acid reflux.

Could the timing for another tax increase together with others may create a perfect storm that brings together Republicans, Independents, Libertarians and Tea Party supporters? If the Phoenix referendum is successful, it will go the ballot at the same time as the state sales tax public vote.

Sal DiccioGates represents the city’s northeast/north central area in council district 3 and was joined by Sal DiCiccio (Dist. 6 Awhatukee/Arcadia/East Phoenix) and Peggy Neely (Dist. 2 far northeast) in voting no. In about two years, Phil Gordon is termed out as Mayor and any or all of these council members may be contenders for the city’s top spot.

One Phoenix TV station reported that Councilman DiCiccio has again thrown down the gauntlet, saying he would take a 5% pay cut to his check if city employee unions would take the same cut and that he would continue to match the cuts out of his check. No word yet if other councilmembers will see DiCiccio’s bet, or raise him one (council members are paid $61,600 yearly).

DiCiccio had previously revealed that the average cost for a Phoenix City employee is $97,000 per employee, by far some of the most expensive help around. In rough calculations, that would mean the employee benefit package exceeds 33% of pay, far above private sector averages and possibly even exceeding the cost of benefits given to military personnel.

DiCiccio has posted his findings on his own city council webpage: http://phoenix.gov/district6/budgetinfo.html

Phoenix is not a happy family inside. City Hall insiders say other city unions are tired of taking all the cuts while police and firefighters have been held free of any cuts in pay, benefits or positions. The largest group of people showing up at the Feb. 2nd last minute council vote were union members and their families, including AFSCME, PLEA and IAFF-Phoenix Firefighters unions. An afternoon council meeting limits the Joe average voters from getting off work to come – apparently a lot of city workers must have had the afternoon off.

Adding to the mix, one long time city neighborhood activist, Paul Barnes, showed up to ask for a 4% food sales tax hike, trying to swap the tax for an indepth study that would lead to future budget reductions. The council did not bite on that one.

It has been rumored that one major department already figured that if employees in the city division could take about 5 furlough days and about another 90 could take demotions to the next step below, that department could avoid layoffs of about 200 employees.

“I think it was a dispictable to scare the public with cuts to police and fire to get a food sales tax,” Dean Martin added in his LD11 interview.

City officials have said they would have to lay off hundreds of police and fire fighters, but not put any furloughs on the table as an alternative to layoffs. Within a day after the food tax vote, City Cable 11 had a team of city budget experts doing a roundtable explaining where the food sales money would be spent. There may have not been much homework on alternative budget reductions, but city staff gets high marks for quickly knowing where to spend the dollars.

Gilbert Tuesday just announced it is looking at laying off 65 police officers and 29 firefighters. In contrast, Tulsa, OK, facing a budget crisis, may have to lay off 135 police and 130 firefighters. News reports state Tulsa police are facing either layoffs or taking a 7.5 percent pay cut plus benefit concessions, as suggested by their mayor. Firefighters were given an option to take 8.6 percent pay cuts and make some benefit concessions or see firefighters laid off.

Closer to home, Mesa recently slashed city salaries across the board and took away all overtime from police and fire. Last time anyone checked, Mesa is still there – didn’t burn down, no crime take-over and no-shut down of government.

Mesa may want another ballpark, but no police or firefighters went home in their cutbacks. Maybe there is a lesson for Phoenix there (good news – Phoenix already has a ballpark). Now, Team Phoenix Council is up to bat and the tax busters are pitching with clipboards, referendums and pens. Bets anyone? In the meantime, plenty of rental cars available for politicians and bureaucrats needing a fast lane exit, providing you pay the rental tax, of course.

John McCain

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: January 28, 2010

From The Arizona Guardian, written by Dennis Welch

U.S. Sen. John McCain’s job approval ratings have hit to their lowest point since he was accused of participating in a banking scandal more than 16 years ago, according to a survey released Thursday.

McCain’s approval ratings fell to 40 percent, according to a poll conducted by the Behavior Research Center. They haven’t been that low since 1994, when McCain was still rebuilding his image following the much-publicized “Keating Five” scandal in the early 1990s.

The former GOP presidential nominee still looks tough to beat despite the falling numbers, said Earl de Berge, who conducted the political survey.

McCain’s job approval ratings are still very strong among registered Republicans, the group he needs to successfully fend off a primary challenge by former U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

Fifty-two percent of registered Republicans like the job McCain is doing, while 14 percent of those questioned say Arizona’s senior senator is doing a poor job. With those numbers, de Berge said, McCain will be hard to knock off.

“A McCain-Hayworth primary, however, will undoubtably provide voters with much entertainment as the two argue about which one is more conservative and worthy of trust,” de Berge said.

In the early 1990s, McCain and four other senators, including Arizona Sen. Dennis DeConcini, were accused of trying to influence banking regulators on behalf of political ally Charles H. Keating, Jr. McCain was never found guilty of any wrongdoing but was criticized for using poor judgment.

McCain and former astronaut Sen. John Glenn, R-Ohio, were the the only lawmakers to go on to win re-election. The political scandal, part of the larger savings and loan crisis, ended the political careers of the other three.

McCain’s image took a bruising during that time as his approval ratings dropped to 38 percent in 1994, according to the survey.

De Berge interviewed 800 heads of households between Jan. 7-22. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

###

Over the weekend, the Arizona Daily Star called the Democratic Party’s attempts to downplay Jonathan Paton’s chances of winning in Congressional District 8 “whistling past the graveland.” Apparently, the Cook Political Report agrees.

A week after Paton entered the Congressional District 8 race against Gabrielle Giffords, Cook has downgraded Giffords’ chances of winning reelection, changing their nonpartisan listing of the race from “Likely Dem” to “Leans Dem.” This comes just two months after Giffords voted for Nancy Pelosi’s health care bill, prompting Cook to move the race from “Solid Dem” to “Likely Dem.”

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Giffords has already started using Paton’s entry into the race to motivate her supporters to donate more to her wealthy campaign operation. And the consensus that Giffords will have an easy ride to reelection is eroding in other ways, too, after Paton’s announcement. Phoenix’s Channel 3 discussed the race over the weekend, and called Giffords a “vulnerable Democrat.”

Paton was also mentioned by CQ Politics. In a story today titled “Can Democrats Reverse Free Fall,” the publication writes: “Right now, even with huge majorities in the House and Senate and control of the White House, Democrats appear to be in political free-fall.”

And on Friday, Inside Tucson Business said: “… more than any other Republican who has run against (Giffords) before, Paton will fight the fight.”

“Momentum is building for real change in Washington,” Paton said. “The support I’ve seen for new representation in this district just over the last week has been incredible. As I’ve said before, this won’t be easy. We’re challenging one of the richest political machines in the country. But I’m committed to holding Gabrielle Giffords accountable in this election for rubber-stamping one Nancy Pelosi policy after another.”

“Join me and we can end one party dominance in Washington and get this country back on track.”

Jim DeakinThe results of the GOP Straw Poll performed Saturday January 16, 2010 prove Jim Deakin is leading all registered candidates. Jim Deakin may have been unknown to GOP politics in 2009, but is in a great position to perform probably the biggest upset in Arizona politics.

Jim Deakin has exceeded the signature requirement listed on the azsos.gov website and will be included on the August 24, 2010 ballot.

Jim Deakin is a Veteran of the U.S. Navy where he served aboard the USS Reuben James FFG-57, worked as a manager for a Fortune 100 company for 5 years until he started his own businesses in 2000 and 2001.

Many Americans feel politicians have lost touch with the people. Jim Deakin’s real world experience has earned him the support of TEA Party groups, 912candidates.org and TheGoodEggClub.com and thetenthamendmentcenter.com.

To donate visit www.jimdeakin.com.

http://renewliberty.org/mcrc-news/maricopa-county-republican-committee-mandatory-meeting-held-on-january-16-2010/

John McCainMultiple sources are reporting that JD Hayworth overwhelming beat Senator John McCain among the Republican faithful at the Maricopa County Republican Committee elections today.

The straw poll showed that the former congressman and conservative, JD Hayworth, beat Arizona’s senior senator 68% to 10.5%. The poll reflects the growing dissatisfaction by grassroots and elected precinct committeemen even in John McCain’s home county.JD Hayworth

This poll also mirrors the results of an earlier poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen in which JD Hayworth was within striking distance of John McCain 45 to 43 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, November 20, 2009)

Will this lead to an upcoming announcement by the biggest name amongst Arizona conservatives? We can only wait and see.

Ruth McClung - Candidate for Congressional District 7Watching the Massachusetts Senate race take place in which Republican Scott Brown is likely to defeat Martha Coakley in next week’s special election, is giving many of us hope for many congressional races here in Arizona.

In particular, I am excited about Ruth McClung’s attempt to unseat ultra-liberal Raul Grijalva. Many candidates like Ruth have risen out of the insurgency of the Tea Party Movement.

In a state like Massachusetts where voter registration overwhelmingly favors Democrats, the same trending could be taking place right here in our own CD-7.

A Scott Brown victory in Massachusetts next week could further fuel the populist grassroots insurgency to restore normalcy in every district across the country but I get a sense that the good people in CD-7 will be further inspired to dig in their heels, join Ruth’s campaign and prepare to unseat the most liberal Democrat in Arizona’s congressional delegation.

To support Ruth McClung, visit her website at www.Ruth4AZ.com.

Well, maybe not so much for Barack Obama.

The following press release was issued by American Viewpoint

AZ 5th Congressional District Poll: Harry Mitchell Re-Elect at 41, Over 10-Point GOP Generic Advantage;
GOP Primary Wide Open – 70% Undecided

Alexandria, VA – Today American Viewpoint, a nationally recognized public opinion research firm, released the findings of a survey conducted in Arizona’s Fifth Congressional District with 300 likely general election voters that was commissioned by newly filed candidate Dr. Chris Salvino. Interviews were conducted August 31-September 1, 2009.

“This is the clearest evidence yet that Congressman Harry Mitchell is extremely vulnerable in his re-election effort and his numbers are likely even worse today than they were in the fall,” said Randall Gutermuth, Vice President with American Viewpoint. “Making matters worse for Mitchell is that voters nationally have become stridently anti-incumbent and considering Mitchell’s 40 year tenure as career politician his chances for re-election look even more bleak. Harry Mitchell has the unenviable task of pleasing his GOP-leaning district while also having to follow the Speaker Pelosi agenda.”

Some of the key findings:

When respondents were asked whom they would support, either the Republican candidate or Democrat candidate, Democrats were in trouble, marking the first time in 4 years the district has flipped:

Generic Ballot Test:
Total Republican: 45%
Total Democrat: 32%

Even worse news for Mitchell is that his re-election number was way under 50%, a key indicator of where an incumbent Member of Congress should be. When asked if Mitchell has done his job in Congress well enough to deserve re-election versus giving a new person a chance:
Mitchell Re-Elect:
Re-Elect Mitchell: 41%
New Person: 41%

In the GOP Primary, 70% of the respondents were undecided. While David Schweikert leads among announced candidates, surprisingly the former nominee and long time local politician severely underperforms his own electoral success from just two years ago, seemingly unable to galvanize GOP support:
GOP Primary
Undecided: 70%
David Schweikert: 26%
Jim Ward: 3%
Chris Salvino: 1%
Erik Wnuck: 0%

The good folks over at The Arizona Guardian can thank me later for driving some traffic to their website. I just received a tweet that The Guardian has posted a poll asking its readers to vote on whether they think Arizonans will vote for a One cent sales tax hike should it go to the ballot.

For months, many conservatives have been railing against a Republican agenda of raising taxes. It simply goes against our principles but even more realistically, it would do nothing to close our budget deficit. In fact, we strongly assert that it would actually prolong our recession, shun economic growth and dissuade businesses from starting or coming to Arizona.

Janet Napolitano set us up with the current crisis (sorry liberals, you can’t blame George W. Bush for the Arizona Budget Deficit and state spending!) while she ruled the roost here in Arizona. Unfortunately, Republicans have to clean up the mess and even more unfortunate, our current Governor has been on a tractor beam agenda to up the sales tax.

At this point take a moment to visit The Arizona Guardian website and vote in their poll. We will be watching the results despite their lack of scientific methodology.

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