New Poll Shows Christine Jones Leading in Arizona’s CD-5

OH Predictive Insights
Outsider Message Resonating in AZ05 Congressional Race

PHOENIX (July 21, 2016) — Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, which holds the reputation of one of the securest Republican seats in the country, is set to elect a new congressman this November. Within the past seven weeks the race has changed, as outsider Christine Jones has surged into the lead with only two weeks until early voting begins for the primary election.

In a survey conducted on July 19 of 408 likely Republican primary voters, undecided voters have dropped 26 percentage points since the last poll conducted on June 2. Despite the competition seen in the June 2 poll, the race has tightened up and Christine Jones now sits atop of the respective Republican field, ahead her nearest competitor by 7 percentage points.

AZ05PollSheet1

“Within the last seven weeks Christine Jones came from almost last place to now leading one of the most sought-after congressional seats in the country,” Mike Noble, Pollster & Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights, said. “This is an election cycle unlike any other and Christine Jones is a perfect example of why this cycle may be forever referred to as, ‘The Year of the Outsider.’”

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*May not equal 100% due to rounding

“When it comes to the battle of the faith vote Andy Biggs and Don Stapley garned just over half of the LDS demographic.  Christine Jones made significant improvement in the other non-LDS religious communities,” Noble added.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on July 19, 2016, from a sample of likely Republican Primary voters across Arizona who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the upcoming Arizona Republican Primary for Congress. The sample size was 408 completed surveys, with a Margin of Error of +/-4.84%

Read the press release online.

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About OH Predictive Insights
With Owens Harkey Advertising’s marketing and creative service resources coupled with OH Strategic Communication’s unparalleled messaging and strategic planning expertise, OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing. Leading Arizona pollster Michael Noble from MBQF Consulting brings proprietary social statistics software and services to OH Predictive Insights providing clients with tools to solve their most challenging problems. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159.

POLL: The Republican Race for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District

Poll: Prop 123 Shows Strong Numbers With Early Voting Underway

Predictive Insights

Bi-partisan support for prop 123

PHOENIX (April 27, 2016) — Arizona’s special election for two statewide initiatives including the education bill, Proposition 123, will be voted on May 17th, 2016.

In a survey of 665 likely special election voters, 59.7 percent said they would vote in favor of Prop 123.

Prop 123 – Education Funding
April 25, 2016 Results
Definitely Yes 38.5%
Probably Yes 21.2%
Probably No 9%
Definitely No 24.4%
Unsure/Undecided 6.9%

“Early indicators show strong support for Proposition 123 across all demographics,” Mike Noble, Pollster & Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights said, “It is surprising to see only 6.9% of likely voters are undecided which tells us voters are keenly aware of the measure.  If you hear someone talking about this next time you are in-line at the grocery store – don’t be surprised.”

Wes Gullett, Partner in OH Predictive Insights and political consultant was impressed that the Yes vote is strong across all demographics and was cautiously positive about the results. “Democrats, Republicans and Independents are all voting yes close to 60%.  However, with ballot measures typically the ‘No’ vote does a better than the polling on election day so the Yes side needs to have a strong turnout of supporters over the next three weeks,” Gullett said.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on April 25th, 2016, from a sample of likely special election voters from across Arizona who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2016 May 17th special election in Arizona. The sample size was 665 completed surveys, with a Margin of Error of ± 3.8%

Arizona Republic: Poll shows Arizona marijuana-legalization campaign could fail if voted on today

Arizona Republic: Poll shows Arizona marijuana-legalization campaign could fail if voted on today

As seen on AZCentral.com

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez
April 20, 2016

If a vote were taken today, Arizonans could reject an initiative to legalize recreational use of marijuana by adults, according to a poll released by the campaign opposing the plan.

The survey shows 43 percent of likely voters support legalizing marijuana for recreational use while 49 percent would vote against it. About 8 percent of likely voters were undecided. The telephone survey has a margin of error of about 4 percent.

Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy released the poll on the eve of 4/20, a day on which the drug culture celebrates and consumes cannabis.

The Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol is gathering signatures to put an initiative on the November ballot that would allow people age 21 and older to carry up to 1 ounce of marijuana and grow up to 12 plants in a home occupied by at least two people, without obtaining licenses. It would also create a distribution system similar to Colorado’s, where licensed businesses produce and sell marijuana, which would be taxed.

Barrett Marson, spokesman for the legalization campaign, said of the poll results: “We look forward to a vigorous campaign informing voters of the benefits of ending the failed policy of prohibition. By regulating and taxing marijuana, we benefit our schools and keep it out of the hands of teens.”

The poll, released to The Arizona Republic on Tuesday, shows voters could narrowly oppose the measure. According to the survey of 500 likely voters conducted April 11 through April 14:

  • When asked if they would be more or less likely to support the ballot measure if they knew recreational marijuana would be taxed at 15 percent and the funds would go to public health and education, 50 percent said they would be more likely to support the measure, while 29 percent said they would be less likely to support it. Eighteen percent said the tax would not really change their decision, while 4 percent were undecided and 1 percent wouldn’t answer the question.
  • About 19 percent said they would be more likely to support legalization in Arizona after being told teen use of the drug here is 70 percent higher than the national average. About 53 percent said they would be less likely to vote for the measure, 21 percent said they still held the same view, 6 percent were undecided and 1 percent wouldn’t answer the question.
  • Asked if they knew the measure would allow growth of up to 12 plants in their homes and allow them to smoke in their backyard, 31 percent said they would be more likely to vote for it, 52 percent would be less likely, 13 percent said their opinion remained about the same, 3 percent were undecided and 1 percent refused to answer.

Of those who responded, 39 percent were Republican, 33 percent were Democrat, 28 percent were independent, and 1 percent didn’t know their affiliation. About 36 percent were 65 or older, 21 percent were 55-64 years old, 17 percent were 45-54 years old, 13 percent were 35-44 years old and 13 percent were 18-34 years old.

Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy argues legalization could upend decades of policies surrounding substance-abuse prevention, law-enforcement and health. They argue legalization could lead to the abuse of marijuana and negatively impact the workplace.

The group’s leaders, Yavapai County Attorney Sheila Polk and radio host Seth Leibsohn, say legalization could lead to increased incidents of impaired driving and lead to accidental ingestion by youth who may find marijuana-laced cookies and candies enticing without knowing they contain the drug.

“Advocates for recreational marijuana argue that legalization is inevitable, but this poll shows it’s just not true,” Leibsohn said in a statement. “Arizonans are beginning to understand that today’s marijuana is not the marijuana of the past. It’s a great deal more potent — practically a different drug — and is made attractive to youth in seemingly innocuous candies like gummy bears.”

Campaign officials argue prohibition of the drug has been a failure, and it’s in the public’s best interest to try to regulate and tax it.

Taxation of the proposed program would pay the state’s cost of implementing and enforcing the initiative. Forty percent of the taxes on marijuana would be directed to the Department of Education for construction, maintenance and operation costs, including salaries of K-12 teachers. Another 40 percent would be set aside for full-day kindergarten programs. Twenty percent would go to the state Department of Health Services for unspecified uses.

A state Department of Marijuana Licenses and Control would regulate the “cultivation, manufacturing, testing, transportation and sale of marijuana” and would give local governments the authority to regulate and ban marijuana stores. Current medical-marijuana dispensary owners would get first dibs on licenses for the stores.

Poll: Maricopa Voters Satisfied with Diamondbacks Stadium

MBQF

Diamondbacks face a hard sell to Maricopa County Voters for Stadium Funds

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public opinion survey consulting firm, announced today the results of a recent public opinion survey conducted on March 24, 2016. Results from the automated survey show likely Maricopa County voters who responded “Yes” to having attended an Arizona Diamondbacks game within the last 2 years. MoE of ± 5.59 and 407 total respondents.

The Question was read as follows:

In your opinion, when you were there, what would you judge the condition of the stadium?

Very Good – 61.2%
Good – 31.9%
Poor – 2%
Very Poor – 1%
No Opinion – 3.9%

The Arizona Diamondbacks are requesting 200 million dollar upgrade for deferred maintenance and upgrades to the stadium. As a Maricopa County taxpayer, would you support spending tax dollars for this?

Yes – 18.9%
No – 62.7%
Not Sure/Undecided – 18.4%

MBQF Principal Mike Noble concluded, “The Arizona Diamondbacks desire for taxpayers to step up to the plate with nearly $200 million is a big swing and a miss,” Noble said. “Fans believe Chase Field is still a first-class facility and prefer to sing Take Me Out to the Ballgame at the corner of Jefferson and 4th Street.”

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POLL: Donald Trump on Track to win Arizona

MBQF

Trump and Cruz supporters bullish on the future of the party

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning the remaining four GOP candidates for president of the United States of America.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 751 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on March 8, 2016, the survey calculates a 3.57% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

PPPPoll

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement, “With early voting already underway in Arizona, Donald Trump leads with both those voters that have already cast ballots as well as among those that are still planning on voting.”

Noble added, “In addition to the ballot test, we also asked both groups whether they believed if the Republican party’s best days were ahead of them or behind them. The survey found that the majority of those supporting Donald Trump and Ted Cruz felt the party’s best days were ahead of them while those supporting Marco Rubio and John Kasich felt the opposite. This finding was consistent between both groups. ”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.57%.

POLL: The Republican Nominee for AZ01

Scott Smith Leads In Latest CD-5 Poll

DataOrbital

(Phoenix, AZ) – There has been much speculation over who will run to fill the seat of retiring Congressman Matt Salmon in Congressional District Five. Senate President Andy Biggs is currently the only candidate in the race and announced his campaign with the endorsement of Congressman Salmon.

Even though a number of prominent east valley figures have already taken a pass at the seat, a recently conducted poll shows President Biggs does not have a lock on the seat and that this race is still wide open.

Data Orbital, a Phoenix based consulting firm, today announced the results of a survey conducted of likely Republican primary voters in CD Five. The live poll showed former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith with a 7% lead over President Biggs among likely Republican primary voters. Former Mayor Scott Smith has yet to announce whether or not he will seek the seat.

The question was worded as follows:

Q: If the Republican primary election for Congress in District Five were held today, who would you be most likely to vote for?

Scott Smith – 33%
Andy Biggs – 26%
Undecided – 41%

George Khalaf, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement: “It is clear that President Biggs came out with strong momentum following the endorsement of Congressman Salmon but results show that this race is far from over. Mayor Smith has a solid base of support among east valley Republicans and would be a formidable candidate should he choose to run.”

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This live poll of 500 likely Republican voters in CD Five has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.33 percent, with a 95 percent confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures and responses came evenly from cell phones and landlines. For any questions please contact George Khalaf.

POLL: Marco Rubio Surges Past Ted Cruz in AZ

MBQF

Trump has General Election Problem with GOP Base

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning top tier GOP candidates for president of the United States of America.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 736 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on February 22, 2016, the survey calculates a 3.61% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The exact question was phrased, “Arizona’s Presidential Preference election will be held March 22nd. Which candidate, listed in alphabetical order are you planning on supporting?”

AZ GOP Presidential Primary 2016 – Feb 22nd, 2016 Results

Donald Trump – 34.8%

Marco Rubio – 22.7%

Ted Cruz – 14.1%

John Kasich – 7.1%

Unsure/Undecided – 21.3%

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement, “The early primaries and caucuses have winnowed a 17-person field down to just 4 credible choices. Donald Trump maintains his consistent advantage from likely GOP voters. However, the poll shows what many have long discussed – Trump has a ceiling and cannot attract the wide swath of GOP voters.”

Noble added, “Donald Trump is on pace to win Arizona big in March, but would be an underdog to repeat that feat in November.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.61%.

POLL: Maricopa County Voters Say Raise Age to 21 to Buy Tobacco, Keep Coyotes in Glendale

MBQF
MarsonMedia

Poll also shows voters want Arizona Coyotes to stay in Glendale

(Phoenix, AZ) — Only adults 21 and over should be able to buy tobacco products, according to a new poll of Maricopa County voters.

Of the 584 respondents to a poll conducted Dec. 29 by MBQF Consulting and Marson Media, 72 percent said they support increasing the age to buy tobacco from 18 to 21. Just 28 percent oppose the move.

The poll also found Maricopa County voters prefer the Arizona Coyotes remain in Glendale, 55-45. And finally, Maricopa County approve of Indian tribes opening Las Vegas-style casinos off traditional reservation land by a margin of 45-39.

“It is clear among all political stripes that voters want to increase the legal age to buy tobacco to 21,” said Barrett Marson, CEO of Marson Media. “As cities in Maricopa County consider these proposals, they can move forward knowing voters support the move.”

Mike Noble Added, “What was interesting was that support to increase the legal age was basically the same between Republicans, Democrats and Independent voters.”

Despite spotty attendance performance throughout its years in Glendale, voters don’t support moving the Arizona Coyotes to a downtown Phoenix or East Valley location, the poll found. The team has said it will explore a move to a new arena downtown or could build an arena on the Salt River Pima Indian Community near Scottsdale.

“The Coyotes are locked in a battle with Glendale but voters actually prefer the team stays in the Gila River Arena,” said Mike Noble, CEO of MBQF Consulting.

As for Indian gaming, county voters appear OK with tribes opening casinos off of traditional reservation land. The Tohono O’odham recently opened a casino near Glendale though it lacks table games like blackjack that are at other casinos.

“Voters don’t mind Indian casinos in the metropolitan area even if they are operated by tribes far away,” Marson said.

In the automated telephonic non-partisan survey of 584 high efficacy voters, conducted on December 29, the survey calculates a 4.06% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points.

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact Mike Noble or Barrett Marson.