Nearly 44% of Arizona Republicans (and some Independents) voted against John McCain in the August 24th Primary Election. After John McCain’s “scorched earth” campaign against JD Hayworth and Arizona conservatives and TEA Party members, many voters are left with the dilemma of casting a November ballot for McCain, voting for someone else or not voting at all. John McCain should be concerned that he has now lost his conservative base. The question posed to our readers is what will you do?

The crazed effort of Team Hayworth, currently being driven by desperation and fueled by a lethal combination of ignorance and arrogance, is imploding as the failed endeavor of the scandal plagued former Congressman commits to his own personal destruction.  When the Rasmussen poll, which the campaign had touted as the “realistic poll”, delivered the news that “Huckster Hayworth” is down by at least 20 points in the primary and trailing the Democrat in the general, the highly charged rhetoric ramped up.  The results have been particularly pathetic and will follow him long after his defeat has been recorded; if the huge vote margin in his loss is not enough to end his future, once again his judgment has been.

Last week Team Hayworth released an ad that took a 3-word excerpt out of context from one of Sen. McCain’s books from 2002 and used it to call him a liar…while in the ad of course, they lied about things attributed to Sen. McCain.  The non-profit group Factcheck.org calls it misleading and untrue.  Of course that can’t be allowed…so JD attacks Factcheck.org.  No surprise there!   JD never does anything wrong!  Remember, “buyer beware“. 

Judicial Watch lists JD on their Political Corruption page, noting he was among those who refused to return the money they took from Jack Abramoff or thru his efforts.  JD denies it was Abramoff who gave him the loot….even though he used his skyboxes for fundraisers illegally 5 times.   Deny.  Blame others.  Deny.  Blame others.

Others are also refusing to part with some big Abramoff-connected bucks. For instance, Democrat Senator Patty Murray of Washington will keep $41,000, Democrat Representative Patrick Kennedy of Rhode Island will keep $42,500, Democrat Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington will keep $10,000 and Republican Representative J.D. Hayworth of Arizona will not part with $150,000.

That story reminds me of the old Sesame Street jingle…”one of these things is not like the other…”  All Dems BUT good ol’ J-D Hay-worth.

In a hamfisted effort to make some of the best news to hit Arizona in awhile a bad thing, and counter the positive media Sen. McCain received, Rachel Alexander (the campaign social media director) calls McCain out for his work to protect LAFB and gain the preferential location for the F-35.  Pork.  She called it pork.  Keeping Luke open, gaining a program that will serve our nation well…pork? 

Next time some soldier on the ground needs air support…let’s see if they think of that highly skilled fighter pilot as a pork barrel commodity.  Or what makes it possible for them to come home…alive.

JD will attack anyone who stands in his way with vile and venom.  The truth is what he needs it to be.  His personal brand of right makes might mentality is all he needs to motivate his actions. 

Last week, in the sure sign that JD has lost it…he makes an unprovoked attack on the Bush family!  The candidate running in Arizona was on a Baltimore radio station when he unloaded on the former POTUS.

I know he is a big spender, but now he attacks Bush?  Is he channeling Obama?  Attacking President Bush wasn’t enough, he had to go after the whole family!  Sounds like someone didn’t get an endorsement they wanted…

The sad fact about the Bush family is this stubborn notion of noblesse oblige, combined with verbal dyslexia.” JD Hayworth

This after he attacked Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, calling him a racist, drawing the ire of police organizations around the state.  What should we expect? After all, Sheriff Babeu endorsed Sen. McCain.

The commonly held understanding that JD is unelectable has been met with disbelief among the true believers as they cling to some hope that maybe, just maybe, they could pull this thing out.  McCain Derangement Syndrome has invaded the inner most actions of JD and his followers.  The attacks, distorted reality, and the search for an enemy behind every word have made the demise pitiful but certainly not endearing.     

It is like watching the sailing and the ultimate sinking of The Titanic.  Lots of build up, big promises, all based on the denial of the obvious with no vision for the true course ahead, followed by a crash that leaves few survivors and an ending that leaves the ship at the bottom of the ocean never to sail again.

The Conservatives for Congress Committee is a group of business and community leaders who are committed to A) Exposing liberal politicians who masquerade as moderates and B) electing genuine conservatives in their place. The Committee is based in Southern Arizona and will likely focus its 2010 inaugural efforts on races in the Grand Canyon State.

As part of this effort, CCC has conducted polling in Arizona Eighth Congressional District. These are the results:

On July 26-27, a survey was taken by National Research Inc. of 300 likely GOP primary voters in CD-8.  National Research Inc. has polled for major political clients including the NRCC, NRSC, NJ Gov Chris Christie and others.  The margin of error = +/- 5.66%.

Here are some of the results:

If the Republican primary for Congress were being held today and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you vote?

36% Jesse Kelly (plus 5% lean toward him)
17% Jonathan Paton (plus 1% lean toward him)
5% Brian Miller (plus 1% lean toward him)
32% undecided

Additional results can be view on CCC’s website here.

Paid for by Conservatives for Congress Committee and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

This cannot be a good day for Team Hayworth.  It is now absolutely apparent that not only can JD Hayworth not win the GOP nomination, but if pigs fly between now and August 24th…the Democrat wins in November.

Once again, in almost 3:1 ratio, voters polled dislike Hayworth with a 15 % favorable and 40% unfavorable rating.   This latest Rasmussen poll was taken on July 29th, following both debates.

McCain, as the incumbent, is polling well above the range that would have him in danger of losing and solidifies Arizona as a solid Republican seat.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters in AZ
July 29, 2010

The ability of any American to run for office, and even get elected, can be attested to by looking at the South Carolina Democratic Senatorial Primary.  Alvin Greene, a no name, no money, no experience, no web site, no yard signs, nobody won the primary and will be the Democratic candidate for Senator in November.  Nothing to know, nothing to dislike is one theory of his victory.  Of course, he will face Jim DeMint…so his chances are less than slim but he did win the primary.  

Those kinds of stories are rare and even less likely when the candidate is a previously defeated, scandal plagued, infomercial huckster. Plenty to know, plenty to…well, I think you get my drift.  But, this is America!  Any citizen, meeting the age and other requirements who is not a felon can run for office.   Getting elected…now, that is another story.

Children believe in stories of magic and amazing outcomes, they are called fairy tales.  Throw some magic beans out the window and  POOF!  A goose that lays golden eggs is in your future!  Desire to go to the ball and VOILA!  A fairy godmother appears and little mice sew you a beautiful gown and a pumpkin becomes a carriage!  Make the story full of villains and evil, cast a bad guy and a hero, throw in a sweet damsel to the mix.  Oh, how sweet.  How wonderful.  How not true…or even close.

In the real world, facts cannot be dismissed with soaring rhetoric and highly charged words.  Eventually, the truth will be seen and reality must set in.  Data is what it is, cold and hard but true.  Wishing on a star will not make your poll numbers increase.  And, I’m sorry Virginia but…

Speaking of poll numbers….the results are in and according to the Hayworth campaign, the big poll that really matters…Rasmussen, says JD is toast.  Really dry, burnt toast.

Arizona Senate – Republican Primary

For Immediate Release
Contact: J.P. Twist
602-689-7647 or jp@GosarforCongress.com

Dr. Paul Gosar Holds Commanding Lead in CD1 Republican Primary

New poll shows Dr. Paul Gosar at 30% in crowded field

(Prescott, AZ) Today, the Gosar for Congress campaign released a poll showing Dr. Paul Gosar holding a commanding lead in the Congressional District One Republican Primary.  In the poll, Dr. Paul Gosar receives 30% of the vote from those likely to vote in the upcoming Primary Election.

“Washington, D.C. and Ann Kirkpatrick are out of touch with the American people,” said Dr. Paul Gosar. “Our message of securing our border, opposing amnesty for illegal immigrants and stopping the out-of-control spending by the federal government is resonating with the voters of District One.”

In a head to head match-up between Dr. Paul Gosar and his seven primary opponents, Dr. Paul Gosar holds a significant lead days before early voting begins in Arizona.

Dr. Paul Gosar recently received the endorsement of Governor Sarah Palin.  Governor Palin joins a growing list of supporters that includes:  Sheriffs Joe Arpaio, Paul Babeu, and Joe Richards as well as former NRA President Bob Corbin, Arizona Right To Life, conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt, Arizona Sportsmen for Wildlife and over a thousand voters from Congressional District One.

The poll was conducted by Moore Information – www.moore-info.com. To receive a complete copy of the poll or to request an interview with Dr. Paul Gosar, please contact J.P. Twist at 602-689-7647 or JP@GosarforCongress.com.

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Please take a moment to vote in the Republican Primary Poll for Congressional District 5. This poll will close at midnight on July 31st.

Republican candidates John McCain, JD Hayworth and Jim Deakin squared off for a final debate on Saturday night. Sonoran Alliance would like to know who you think won the final round.

As Primary Election rapidly approaches, Republican voters (as well as independents) will have an opportunity to decide on the Republican nominee for US Senate.

Sonoran Alliance has decided to post our first poll on the three candidates running for US Senate. The question revolves around the strategy behind the scenes.

June 7th, 2010 an article was on posted Sonoran Alliance that included a link to a local poll labeled “Should Deakin drop out of the AZ Senate race?”. Naturally this poll received some attention from the Deakin campaign, and for good reason as the poll indicated that a majority of participants felt that Deakin should withdraw or drop out of the Senate Race. The poll was established shortly after two separate Sonoran Alliance opinion pieces called for Deakin to bow out of the Senate race. What Jim Deakin choose to do with that information however is no mystery. Instead of trying to work at his campaign to put himself into a better position, he choose to tell the organizer of the poll to “Butt out of Arizona Politics”. It’s important to note that Mr. Deakin knows exactly who the pollster was, and that the organizer of the poll is a local Arizona resident, voter, and member of the Tea Party movement in Arizona. The point being made here is that Jim Deakin is establishing an unpleasant reputation among many tea party groups and individuals that are not in support of him. This is a confusing position for him to have since he is a candidate that claims to promote tea party principles, free speech and the Constitution.

On both the Arizona Tea Party Network website and the Greater Phoenix Tea Party website are forum areas for Tea Party members to discuss candidate related content; Deakin and his campaign staff frequent the forums and post updates regularly under pseudonyms like “JPD”. June 8th, in response to the Sonoran Article listed above, Jim Deakin’s camp posted the following message in at least 9 separate areas of Greater Phoenix Tea Party website and 1 area on the Arizona Tea Party Network website:

“Speaking of interfering in elections of a Federal Candidate on an email with this paid for notice “Paid for by Maricopa County Republican Committee”. is a link to a poll made by the Congressman’s campaigner Keith Sippmann “should deakin drop out of the us senate race! Call Rob Haney Maricopa County Chair and tell him… I said HELL NO! (602) 996-1004″;

A rational person would have to question why someone would go through the trouble of posting the same update in ten different places. What is the purpose? The logical answer is that Mr. Deakin was basically implying that the MCRC was somehow approving of the polls position by including a link to the poll in a regular email communication that includes many other links to articles and related local political content. Of course this is an intentional misrepresentation of the truth by the Deakin camp, and a blatant attempt at labeling a citizen activist that opposes his candidacy for Senate as a “Congressman’s Campaigner”, again misrepresenting the truth that the activist somehow officially works for the JD Hayworth campaign. The MCRC was contacted by a concerned Tea Party member and was informed that “ the e-mail that was sent out by the MCRC was NOT an endorsement, simply an FYI, just like any other news link or other piece of information regarding any Republican Race in the State or County.”

Whenever a discussion appears online suggesting that Jim Deakin withdraw from the Senate race, his supporters always use the phrase “only a moron votes for the lesser of two evils as opposed to the RIGHT candidate.” These Deakin’ites don’t care that Deakin still isn’t breaking double-digits no matter what poll is quoted, or that he could possibly hand the seat to McCain. Instead his campaign posts a link to a CBS News article revealing that “Among Republicans, 71 percent would rather vote for a candidate with no experience.”, as if this somehow translates into more Arizona voters supporting him over Hayworth or McCain. At some point the die hard Deakin supporters and Jim Deakin himself, will have to realize that their individualist, political “outcast” attitude is just a matter of pride. To them, popular political movements that don’t favor “their guy” or “their way” of doing something must be wrong. They feel that a majority of people cannot be very smart if they aren’t supporting their candidates or initiatives, which is an attitude of intellectual elitism ironically found on the other end of the spectrum with the far leftists. It would seem that

The latest, and most comprehensive of all published polls in this race, make clear that Senator John McCain has taken a commanding lead over the closest other candidate, JD Hayworth.  If the election were held today, John McCain would be the determined winner over JD with a 52% to 29% voter breakdown, 14%  for Another Candidate and 5% undecided.  The calls for Jim Deakin to drop out are clearly a last ditch strategy but, according to this poll, even that would not give Hayworth a winning margin.  

US Senate Primary Ballot Test

McCain 52%, Hayworth 29%, Another Candidate 14%, Undecided 5%

The poll likely does not show the full impact of the revealing JD “huckster” ad, as it was conducted on the day the story became news on cable stations and was then picked up by many media outlets.

Conducted by the Republican data group, Magellan Strategies, it reached out to 1139 likely voters across the state.  Very indicative of the outcome of the election are the negative numbers for both candidates.

It is quite revealing that the number of folks who have an unfavorable rating of Senator McCain is 1% less than the number of folks with a postive image of Hayworth.

Senate Candidate Image Ratings:

Magellan gives McCain good marks for his statewide voter image as an incumbent in this era of anti-incumbency while labeling Hayworth as “upside down” in his favorability ratings; having a far larger number of folks with a unfavorable image than a positive image of any candidate is not a good thing in the final leg of a primary race.

Senator McCain is most strong among women who give him a 36 point advantage.  Hayworth does not lead in any group polled in any category.

The latest Rasmussen poll has been released and in the race for US Senator, John McCain holds a flat-lined lead. Rasmussen’s website reports the following:

“Any incumbent who earns less 50% support is considered potentially vulnerable, and McCain has been hovering around that mark all year. Since January, McCain’s support has fallen in a narrow 47% to 53% range.”

“The 2008 Republican presidential nominee cannot be comforted by the fact that his level of support in early primary polling is similar to the numbers for another veteran senator, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. Specter, ultimately defeated in the state’s Democratic Primary by Joe Sestak, led in just about all early polling but could never get much above the 50% level of support.”

Since the race began, John McCain has been able to rise above the necessary threshold to close the deal with Arizona voters. Other polls Rasmussen has conducted here in Arizona and across the country have also underestimated the intense effect of the Tea Party Movement. It is not until a primary election has taken place that the true mood of the voters has been revealed. Like Roberts in Utah and Specter in Pennsylvania, John McCain is likely to suffer the same demise. However, given the current trajectory, the protest candidate will likely affect the outcome of this election. The Tea Party Movement can have a real impact here in Arizona but it needs to move quickly in derailing the protest candidate and pronouncing its support for JD Hayworth.