POLL: Maricopa County Voters Say Raise Age to 21 to Buy Tobacco, Keep Coyotes in Glendale

MBQF
MarsonMedia

Poll also shows voters want Arizona Coyotes to stay in Glendale

(Phoenix, AZ) — Only adults 21 and over should be able to buy tobacco products, according to a new poll of Maricopa County voters.

Of the 584 respondents to a poll conducted Dec. 29 by MBQF Consulting and Marson Media, 72 percent said they support increasing the age to buy tobacco from 18 to 21. Just 28 percent oppose the move.

The poll also found Maricopa County voters prefer the Arizona Coyotes remain in Glendale, 55-45. And finally, Maricopa County approve of Indian tribes opening Las Vegas-style casinos off traditional reservation land by a margin of 45-39.

“It is clear among all political stripes that voters want to increase the legal age to buy tobacco to 21,” said Barrett Marson, CEO of Marson Media. “As cities in Maricopa County consider these proposals, they can move forward knowing voters support the move.”

Mike Noble Added, “What was interesting was that support to increase the legal age was basically the same between Republicans, Democrats and Independent voters.”

Despite spotty attendance performance throughout its years in Glendale, voters don’t support moving the Arizona Coyotes to a downtown Phoenix or East Valley location, the poll found. The team has said it will explore a move to a new arena downtown or could build an arena on the Salt River Pima Indian Community near Scottsdale.

“The Coyotes are locked in a battle with Glendale but voters actually prefer the team stays in the Gila River Arena,” said Mike Noble, CEO of MBQF Consulting.

As for Indian gaming, county voters appear OK with tribes opening casinos off of traditional reservation land. The Tohono O’odham recently opened a casino near Glendale though it lacks table games like blackjack that are at other casinos.

“Voters don’t mind Indian casinos in the metropolitan area even if they are operated by tribes far away,” Marson said.

In the automated telephonic non-partisan survey of 584 high efficacy voters, conducted on December 29, the survey calculates a 4.06% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points.

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact Mike Noble or Barrett Marson.

POLL: Presidential Pick

Poll: Trump Impact On Republican Chances In 2016

MBQF

Trump nomination cuts GOP motivation, and turns many GOP voters against other Republican candidates

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey commissioned by Insight Consulting, an Arizona firm, concerning GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump and the effect his nomination by the Republican Party would have on voters in Arizona.

The results from the survey shows the results a Trump nomination would have on high efficacy Republican and Independent/PND primary voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 818 high efficacy voters, conducted on November 25, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.43% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

Michael Noble, who conducted the poll explained that “this poll isn’t about whether Trump wins if he is the nominee; it’s about what effect a Trump nomination by the Republican party would have on other Republican candidates.  We wanted to look into the ‘down ballot’ effect Trump as the Republican nominee would have on the 2016 elections.”

Paul Walker, who commissioned the poll issued the following statement: “The 2016 election, like all elections, is about turning out voters – making them motivated to go to the polls or cast early ballots.  Today, Republicans are 91.4 percent “very motivated” to vote next year; Democrats are 83.8 percent “very motivated”; but a Trump nomination changes the numbers.  30.5 percent of high efficacy Republicans become less motivated to vote next year with a Trump nomination, and 20.5 percent become unlikely to support other Republican candidates.  We lose if our voters stay home, and we lose badly if 20.5 percent of high efficacy Republican voters vote against other Republican candidates for other offices.”

Michael Noble explained that Trump’s effect on Independent and PND voters would make Republican campaign strategy much more complex: “A Trump nomination costs Republicans their own support – but it increases the chances of picking up Independent voters.  A Trump nomination makes 50.9 percent of Independent/PND voters more likely to vote next year; while 28.45 percent become less motivated – so you have a net 20.5 percent increase in Independent motivation to vote.  But again, 30.5 percent of Republican voters become less motivated.  So it’s a net loss for Republicans.  Furthermore, Independents are not a homogenous block, obviously.  Many issues effect their votes – so Republican candidates will have less of the GOP base, and would have to chase Independent votes harder: That means campaign messaging and tone have to appeal to more Independents to make up for the loss of GOP support.”

Noble explained that Independents become slightly more likely to support Republicans if Trump is the Republican nominee: “When we asked whether they become more or less likely to support other Republican candidates for other races, 39 percent of Independent/PND voters said more likely and 29 percent said less likely. So there’s an opportunity there, but Republican campaigns will have to have a very different approach to the 2016 election with Trump carrying the Republican banner.  And with 30.5 percent of Republicans becoming less motivated, and 20.5 percent voting against their own party’s candidates in other races, well… The outlook isn’t good.”

Walker added: “While the Trump effect on Independent voters is complicated, the effect on high efficacy Republicans is not; it’s hard to win when nearly a third of your base is less motivated, and it’s nearly impossible to win when 20.5 percent of your base says they are less likely to support other Republicans for other offices.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.43%.

Poll: Hope and Change? The Future of America…

As we move into the next election cycle, what are your thoughts and feelings about the “health” of the Republic?

MBQF Poll: Trump De-Throned In Arizona

Dr. Ben Carson Takes the Lead in Arizona

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning top tier GOP candidates for president of the United States of America.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 1,057 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on October 29, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.01% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The exact question was phrased, “If the election were held today for the Republican primary for President of the United States, which of the following top 10 candidates, listed in alphabetical order by last name, would you be most likely to vote for?”

AZ GOP Presidential Primary 2016
October 29, 2015 Results
Ben Carson
25.5%
Donald Trump
24.8%
Ted Cruz
15.2%
Marco Rubio
14.8%
Jeb Bush
6.8%
Carly Fiorina
3.5%
John Kasich
3.1%
Chris Christie
2.6%
Mike Huckabee
1.4%
Rand Paul
0.8%
Unsure/Undecided
1.4%

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement, “Roughly 80% of the electorate is starting to settle on four candidates.  Carson is now slightly ahead of Trump in the overall horse race.  Senator Cruz saw the biggest jump in support, which is likely based on his recent debate performance.  The anti-establishment streak in this years Republican electorate is still running strong.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.01%.

INSTANT POLL: Who Won the GOP Debate?

Who won the GOP debate?

MBQF Poll: Joe Arpaio Has 50/50 Chance Of Re-Election

Also, Tested was School Bonds, Pot Convention and Education Tax

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs and consulting firm, announced results of a recent survey dealing with the nationally known, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who could be facing his toughest re-election battle yet.  We also looked at several other current issues in Arizona, primarily within Maricopa County.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 559 high efficacy voters in Maricopa County, conducted on October 19, 2015, the survey calculates a 4.14% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The survey asked several questions of voters.  The first was a basic re-elect question regarding Sheriff Joe Arpaio, “Looking ahead to next year’s election for Maricopa County Sheriff, do you think that Joe Arpaio should be re-elected, or do you think that it is time to give someone else a chance?”

Arpaio Re-Elect Question
Results
Should be re-elected
50.45%
Give someone else a chance
49.55%

Party Breakdown

Republicans
Democrats
Independents/PND
Should be re-elected
53%
48%
49%
Give someone else a chance
47%
52%
51%

The second question was phrased, “Recently, the Republican Party of Maricopa County has decided to oppose ALL 28 school district overrides and bond ballot initiatives come this November.  Arizona is one of the lowest ranked states in the United States when it comes to education.  Would you consider the Republican Party of Maricopa Counties stance on these bonds as obstructionist or as fiscal prudence?”

County GOP-No on all Education
Results
Obstructionist
41.50%
Fiscal prudence
39.36%
No opinion
19.14%

The third question was phrased, “Given what you know about Arizona’s education system, would you be willing to pay slightly more generally in taxes to invest in Arizona’s Education System?”

Invest in Education System
Results
Yes
46.33%
No
39.18%
Unsure
14.49%

The fourth question was phrased, “The Phoenix Convention center will be hosting the “Southwest Cannabis Conference & Expo” at the end of this month.  Do you think that is a good idea or bad idea to host this event?”

Pot Expo – Good/Bad?
Results
Good idea to host event
36.31%
Bad idea to host event
29.52%
No opinion
34.17%

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement:

“With Maricopa County voters split on whether America’s Toughest Sheriff deserves another four years, the data shows Sheriff Joe will have his toughest campaign ever.  Republicans, Democrats, and Independents are near evenly split.  In addition, a small plurality of county voters say they are open to paying more for education.  With most eyes focused on the Presidential election next November, Arizona voters have some big choices.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.14%.

POLL: Arizona’s 9th Congressional District

Arizona’s 9th Congressional District is currently held by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. The congresswoman won re-election in 2014.

The district consists of parts of Phoenix, Ahwatukee, Tempe, Chandler and Scottsdale.

Can Republicans win this seat back or is it a lost cause?

Or, does it take a unique Republican to win in this district?

Let us know what you think.

And vote in our Monday poll!

Poll: The Republican Race for US Senate

Poll: Who Should Be The Next Speaker Of The House?