DATA ORBITAL NEW SURVEY: Immigration a Key Issue for Arizona GOP Primary Voters

Phoenix, AZ (June 28, 2018) – Data Orbital has announced additional results from the latest statewide survey of Arizona’s likely GOP primary election voters. The survey focused on what the key issues are for likely voters in statewide races. Data Orbital commissioned this poll beginning Tuesday, June 19th and ending on Thursday, June 21st.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018

These results are broken down by gender and age groupings below with immigration being more important to GOP women.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018
Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018

Below, we see a comparison of likely voters’ top issue by their favorability towards President Trump.

It is worth noting that this survey started a day prior and concluded a day after President Trump’s most recent executive order concerning family separation at the border.

Data Orbital AZ Statewide Survey Poll GOP Primary June 2018

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement on these results: “Immigration has long held the position of top issue for GOP primary voters and with all the recent news regarding the border, this cycle is no different. It is interesting to note that women are the driving factor behind these top results with them being 6% more likely to select immigration as number one. It also comes as no surprise that k-12 education is number one with GOP voters that are 18-34, highlighting the disparity between them and their older 55 and over counterparts who overwhelmingly chose immigration.

This poll of 550 likely GOP primary voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 70% of the results from land lines and 30% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.17%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical general election turnout in Arizona. The poll was conducted over three days from June 19th-21st. Toplines and demographic data can be found here and cross tabs here.

ABOUT DATA ORBITAL:

Data Orbital is a full-service data analytics and survey research firm with local, state and national experience.  Through combine data expertise with political intelligence Data Orbital advances causes, ideas and candidates.

Senator Bob Worsley: Why I’m Leaving Political Office

Monday, June 18, Arizona State Senator Bob Worsley, Republican from LD-25, announced he will not seek re-election exiting political office at the end of his term. Senator Worsley released the following guest opinion:

Bob Worsley

Sen. Bob Worsley

After six years in the Arizona Senate, I will not seek re-election.

Public office was never a position I sought. But when I was recruited by concerned constituents in 2012, I set aside personal endeavors to answer the call.

Since that time, an increasingly caustic political climate has devolved both in Arizona and in Washington. Regrettably, I now feel I can better impact society through resuming my private endeavors than by continuing in elected office while the GOP takes a nap.

We’ve lost the art of compromise

As legislators, we are elected under the banner of a party flag. Yet the districts we represent are comprised of diverse people with an array of needs and opinions.

Irrespective of those differences, voters and legislators alike are asked to cut, squeeze, twist and trim their worldviews into one of two buckets: Republican or Democrat.

Alarmingly, blind ideological allegiance to only one of the two buckets has created a political atmosphere where the most poisonous word an elected official can mutter is “compromise.”

The byproduct of a climate where compromise is viewed with such disdain is the loss of truly lasting solutions to difficult problems.

Oversimplification only hurts us

Issues are almost never black and white. There is nuance and complexity in nearly every challenge facing society. We do ourselves a disservice when we oversimplify complex issues to fit a strict adherence to political ideology.

I am generally conservative but prefer to be thought of as a governing Republican rather than as a conservative ideologue. While in office I used my life’s experiences and best judgment to vote with Republicans when I believed the party represented my constituents and Arizona’s best interests.

When there were common sense solutions that did not fit into party platforms but did fit into the best interest of the voters, I sided with the voters.

We’ve also forgotten civility

Sometimes, difficult political decisions require immunity to fevered backlash from those prone to oversimplification and demagoguery.

Whether promoting a kinder, more empathetic approach to immigration than Senate Bill 1070, or providing a responsible safety net to those in need through Medicaid expansion, I am no stranger to such backlash. But in these instances, and others, I weighed all options with deliberate consideration and voted for human dignity over ideology.

Differences and disagreements are a given anytime there is more than one person involved. What should not be a given, however, is debasing and vitriolic rhetoric toward those with whom there is disagreement.

Civility has become a rare commodity in political debate, a fact that worries me greatly.

Aim higher than where we are now

Lack of civility in politics is not a confined phenomenon. It has bled into our neighborhoods. Increasingly, we associate only with those who share our opinions while viewing those who do not as bad actors.

This is not only detrimental to the political process, it is harmful to our communities. On this issue, I agree with Sen. John McCain who recently said, “we are more alike than different.”

I ran my campaigns on one word: Elevate. It is the singular value that has guided my life. If a problem cannot be solved on the plane on which you stand, step higher.

I still have great hope in a bright future for our state and our country. It has been my honor to serve for a season and now allow for others to have their season.

I hope I have left a legacy of genuine concern for all people and the notion that good solutions should never be bad politics.

Arizona Sen. Bob Worsley, R-Mesa, represents Legislative District 25. Follow him on Twitter: @bob_worsley.

Frosty Taylor: Republicans Who Vote By Proxy Need Not Apply

By Calamity June

Early Monday morning, readers of Frosty Taylor’s Fake News were treated to a yet another truth-deprived rant. Fresh off of her attacks on hard-working PCs and foreign-born Republicans, Frosty has created yet another fake enemy at which to direct her ire: PCs who vote by proxy at Republican statutory meetings.

That’s right…at a time when leftwing billionaire Tom Steyer is pouring tens of millions of dollars into our state, when we are less than two months from a crucial special election in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, and when Washington liberals are already plotting to impeach our President, Frosty continues to insist on finding insignificant issues that are only meant to divide Republicans. In the case of proxy voting, the legislation being championed by Frosty is a solution without a problem.

It would be difficult to make a point-by-point refutation of the Fake News contained in Frosty’s rant; on the whole, the entire piece is flawed by half-truths, personal attacks, and outright lies. But there are a few areas that must be addressed:

  • Frosty claims that some PCs carry “40 or 50 proxies” to state and LD meetings. This is not just a lie, it is demonstrably false according to Frosty’s own analysis. Last year, Frosty provided a table of how many proxies were carried in each legislative district, so she of all peoples should know how many proxies could have been carried by one individual PC.  Given the rules governing proxies, it is literally impossible for any one PC to carry 40 proxies, let alone 50. Frosty surely knows this, yet perpetuates this lie, anyway. The definition of Fake News.
  • Next, Frosty may find proxies objectionable, but she certainly isn’t immune to using them herself, nor are her allies. While she was not elected to the State Committee, she did attend a special meeting to replace Steve Montenegro in LD 13.  She carried 7 proxies. Archie Dickinson, the author of the anti-proxy resolution, carried 7 at the Mandatory Meeting. Timothy Schwartz, who testified in favor of the legislation and “begged” the legislature to intervene, carried 5. Marianne Ferrari, the author of the failed “Recall Lines” movement, did not attend the Mandatory Meeting, but sent in a proxy to represent her. So much hypocrisy, but again not surprising.
  • Frosty compares voting by proxy to ballot harvesting, the practice of collecting unlimited ballots from voters. This is a completely false analogy and even a woman as woefully uninformed as Frosty should know this. Ballot harvesting was objectionable because of the potential for abuse and election fraud. Not to mention the fact that Arizona voters have 4 full weeks in which they may cast their ballots. County and State meetings, by contrast, are on Saturdays; practicing Jewish Republicans, families with children, as well as others, may find it impossible to attend a Saturday meeting. Given her past attacks of Mormon and foreign-born Republicans, perhaps it is no surprise that Frosty would object to Jews having a voice within our Party.
  • And finally, Frosty goes on to attack the current AZGOP party leadership, an ongoing pattern of hers after her multiple failed attempts to defeat popular chairman Jonathan Lines. Frosty strongly backed Lines’ opponent, Jim O’Connor, in 2017. She was a fierce proponent of the ill-fated recall effort last summer. And earlier this year, she gave voice to a quixotic and unsuccessful attempt to remove Chairman Lines at the AZGOP Mandatory Meeting. Her lies include accusations of “secrecy…financial questions…controlled elections.” All of these attacks are, of course, baseless and amount to nothing more than so many sour grapes. Frosty lost, and now she’s throwing a fit that she can’t change the outcome of the election. Get over it.

As Frosty’s readership continues to dwindle, Republicans are rallying behind our strong GOP candidates and our successful State Party. True conservatives are standing strong for lower taxes, and fighting back against the far left who are trying to buy our state. As we enter the election season, we once again must tune out the lies of the Fake News media…and that continues to include Fake News Frosty Taylor.

Frosty’s Fake News Amplifies More Lies

By Calamity June

This morning, Frosty Taylor, the author of the FakeNews “Republican Briefs,” defended the campaign of lies that she has been amplifying on behalf of La Paz County Chairman Russell Sias. For weeks, Sias has been denigrating the hard work being done at the Arizona GOP, attacking the year-long Bylaws process, and hurling personal insults at anyone who does not subscribe to his hateful tactics.

Russell Sias

To dispense with the latest Sias-fueled fever dream: the bylaws revision process has been transparent and fair, with every corner of the state represented. Any suggestion to the contrary is without merit; all bylaw changes will be given an up or down vote at next month’s Mandatory Meeting.

But beyond that, Frosty resurrected the absurd narrative, also being pushed by Sias and others, that there has been a “cleansing” of “conservative worker-bee” PCs over the last 5 or 6 years.

Last we checked, there were plenty of hard working conservative PCs who continue to form the backbone of the Arizona GOP.

Workers like Kim Owens and Lisa James, who run the Dodie Londen Excellence in Public Service program…hundreds of women from across Arizona have learned the nuts and bolts of campaigning and governing, and several have gone on to elective office, including Senator Kelli Ward, AZ GOP Secretary Gabby Mercer, and Lisa Askey, the Chairwoman of the Chandler GOP Women. And the list goes on and on.

Another victim of Frosty’s smears is Lisa Gray, a dedicated conservative and hard working PC who VOLUNTEERS her time as the Executive Director of the Maricopa County Republicans. And yet, Frosty has focused her bile at Gray, resorting to name calling and personal bile at every opportunity.

And let’s not forget Jonathan Lines, a true product of the grassroots movement and a champion of conservative causes dating back to Ronald Reagan’s election. Frosty, Sias, and their ilk have waged a near-constant effort to destroy Lines, all in the name of power and control. And yet Lines, while running multiple businesses and raising a family of 11 kids, has sacrificed countless hours to promote the Republican Party and President Trump.

The Arizona GOP is governed by strong, conservative and active precinct committeemen. And just this week, saw the fruits of their labor when Congress, finally, voted for real tax reform! This came about in no small part because Chairman Lines and the AZ GOP rallied their PCs to insist that Congress keep its promise to Arizona taxpayers. Every single Republican in the Arizona delegation supported the President’s tax reform bill. Sounds like real conservative results to us!

Frosty Taylor, Russell Sias and the rest of the “dead end caucus” do not stand for conservative results. They don’t believe in party unity. They thrive on chaos, disunity, and lies. The truth is, there is no conspiracy to “cleanse” the party of conservatives…there is no “secret” process to reform the bylaws. There are only conservative, hard-working PCs, doing their best, every day, to grow the party, elect Republicans, and Make America Great Again.

Frosty Taylor represents none of this. She’s the mouthpiece of dysfunction and lies. And more and more true Republicans are finally taking notice.

===

As always, the aforementioned parties are welcome to submit a counterpoint response to Sonoran Alliance.

Poll: Majority of Americans Oppose Reducing Incentives for Renewable Energy

OH Predictive

56.8% oppose GOP plan to cut and eliminate incentives for wind and solar

Nationwide Generic Congressional Ballot Test: Democrats lead by 9.7 percent

PHOENIX (December 18, 2017) – Voters across the country oppose the GOP’s plan to gut incentives for wind and solar energy production, according to a new nationwide poll.

The national, online poll of 1,004 people commissioned by ConservAmerica and conducted by OH Predictive Insights from December 13 -16 found 60 percent of voters oppose cutting incentives for renewable energy. The poll also found 57 percent of voters said incentives for renewable energy should be increased. The poll has a margin of error of +/-3.09%.

“The GOP approaches to wind and solar power are overwhelmingly opposed by voters across the U.S.,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company.

While the GOP plan rolls back production tax incentives for wind and solar; and reduces the viability of the financing tool for future projects, the voting public overwhelmingly disagrees, with 60.3% opposing and 22.7% supporting the cuts.

“Voters overwhelmingly agree: Instead of reducing incentives for clean energy, Congress should be looking at ways to make investing in renewable energy cheaper,” Noble said. “If we can afford tax cuts for those who own private jets, surely we can keep incentives for clean energy.”

And our generic ballot question, asking voters:

“If the elections for the U.S. Congress were being held today, are you more likely to vote for the Republican party’s candidate or the Democratic party’s candidate?”

Our poll found that 37.8% would support the Republican candidate, while 47.5% would support the Democratic candidate which gives the Democrats a +9.7% advantage for the Generic Congressional Ballot Test heading into 2018. Those results are within the margin of error of the current Real Clear Politics average for that question. In the battle for the votes of younger voters, 18-29, the GOP is being hammered by 18.5 points, with only 32.9% of younger voters opting for the GOP versus 51.4% favoring the Democratic candidate.

“As of today, having an ‘R’ next to your name heading to the 2018 ballot box puts you at a 10-point disadvantage,” Noble said. “Democrats are winning the battle for likely voters under the age of 30 by almost a 20-point margin.”

The GOP tax plan to cut incentives for wind and solar does seem to fit the voters’ perception of the parties. We asked:

“When it comes to advancing the use of renewable energy, would you say Republicans or Democrats are more pro-active on the issue?”

Respondents to our poll said that Democrats are more pro-active on the issue by a staggering 34.4-point margin.

Another interesting takeaway were their views on what causes climate change: 58.8% said the world’s climate is changing mostly because of human activity, 25.6% said the world’s climate is changing mostly because of natural causes, and 6.5% said the world’s climate is not changing. Independents and Democrats overwhelmingly believe climate change is caused by human activity, however, Republicans were split on the issue with 41.5% believe human activity is responsible and 38.9% is due to natural causes.

“Stunts like throwing snowballs on the Senate floor does not match current voter sentiment in the least bit,” said Noble. “Voters want a government to respond to climate change not engage in political theater.”

Methodology: This nationwide online survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on December 13 – 16th, 2017, from a likely 2018 voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, age, and weighted for ethnicity. The margin of error is ± 3.09%.

Click here to see poll report and sample summary

About OH Predictive Insights

Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, research, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and corporate clients. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, research and public affairs areas, OH Predictive Insights helps clients unlock the insights that improve their clients and key stakeholders marketing and positioning efforts. For more information, please visit our website at www.OHpredictive.com

Activists and Former Campaign Staff Apologize for Propping Up Kelli Ward

This from two staffers with the Kelli Ward for Senate campaign.

As Ward “kicks off” her campaign in Scottsdale, her campaign’s former Chief Strategist Dustin Stockton and Press Secretary Jennifer Lawrence speak out.

Two prominent grassroots activists issued an apology to America First activists and the people of Arizona for helping legitimize the candidacy of Kelli Ward. The two former Breitbart reporters ran Dr. Ward’s campaign from May until September in 2017 serving as Chief Strategist and Press Secretary.

“Dustin and I began helping Kelli when she ran against John McCain in 2016. Over the years we advocated for her with grassroots groups, activists, and media from around the country. After running her campaign, we’ve realized that our successful efforts to legitimize her campaign was a mistake. We are sorry to the #MAGA activists and the people of Arizona because they deserve better candidates”

Kelli Ward is hosting a “campaign kickoff” in Scottsdale Arizona tonight featuring Laura Ingraham and J.D. Hayworth, despite the fact that she formally launched her campaign against Senator Flake before the 2016 general election had even concluded. Before Stockton and Lawrence took over her campaign, Ward was regularly described as a fringe candidate in the media and with conservative political groups and donors. Ward was generally seen as a weaker candidate than both AZ State Treasurer Jeff DeWitt and former AZ Republican Party Chairman Robert Graham.

“We hadn’t anticipated taking over Kelli’s campaign when we visited Arizona around Easter,” Stockton said. “Her campaign was such a disaster that we saw an opportunity to prove how much we can help struggling campaigns and we did just that. Unfortunately, she showed that she isn’t up to the task of standing up to the pressure that causes so many candidates to betray voters when they get to Washington.”

“Even Jeff Flake was a solid conservative as a member of the House before he betrayed his base in pursuit of his ambition in the Senate,” Lawrence finished. “We have a responsibility to our fellow America First activists to prevent another heartbreak at the hands of a politician’s blind ambition. We’re going to make sure that Arizona gets Senators that will make America First activists proud. Stay tuned.”

Jon Gabriel on the Trump Pardon of Arpaio

Fellow Conservatarian friend and blogger extraordinaire, Jon Gabriel, gets a shout out for his great work on Ricochet, Sunday Square Off and his recent op-ed in USA Today. Be sure to sign up for a subscription to his blog for ongoing great content.

Here’s his recent media appearance on Sunday Square Off.

Also, check out Jon’s recent op-ed in USA Today:

Sheriff Joe Arpaio is no conservative and no hero, no matter what President Trump says

President Trump asked the crowd last week at his Phoenix rally, “Was Sheriff Joe convicted for doing his job?” Had the hall been filled with an accurate cross section of Arpaio’s former constituents, the answer would have been a resounding “no.”

Jon Gabriel

Jon Gabriel

Nevertheless, Trump pardoned the ex-sheriff on Friday, though he had not been sentenced and had shown zero remorse for his crime. America’s self-proclaimed “toughest sheriff” was convicted of criminal contempt of court last month after refusing to obey court orders. This most recent legal battle involved numerous federal attempts to get Arpaio to stop racially profiling residents of Maricopa County.

Not only did Arpaio refuse, he bragged about it: “Nobody is higher than me. I am the elected sheriff by the people. I don’t serve any governor or the president.”

Many conservatives outside of Arizona celebrated his headline-grabbing antics, but they don’t know the real story. I’m a conservative Maricopa County resident who has lived under Arpaio throughout his decades-long reign. Arpaio was never a conservative; he just played one on TV.

I saw his love of racial profiling firsthand, especially on my daily commutes through the tiny Hispanic community of Guadalupe, Ariz. When conducting these “sweeps,” helicopters buzzed houses, an 18-wheeler marked “Mobile Command Center” was planted in the center of town, and countless sheriff’s deputies stood on the roadsides, peering into the cars rolling by. Being Caucasian, I was always waved through. The drivers ahead and behind me weren’t so lucky.

Washington’s laxity in border enforcement led many right-of-center Americans to appreciate more robust enforcement, even when it regularly included authoritarian scenes such as the one in Guadalupe. But even if you turn a blind eye to the human cost of such race-based enforcement, Arpaio’s other misdeeds are legion.

During one three-year period, his Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office didn’t properly investigate more than 400 alleged sex crimes, many of them involving child molestation.

In all, the department improperly cleared as many as 75% of cases without arrest or investigation, a fact outlined in a scathing report by the conservative Goldwater Institute.

When local journalists delved into Arpaio’s dealings, he had them arrested, a move that ultimately cost taxpayers $3.75 million. We paid $3.5 million more after the sheriff wrongfully arrested a county supervisor who had been critical of him.

About the same time, Arpaio sought charges against another supervisor, a county board member, the school superintendent, four Superior Court Judges and several county employees. All of these were cleared by the courts and also resulted in hefty taxpayer-funded settlements for his targets.

As a U.S. District Court judge presided over a civil contempt hearing, Arpaio’s attorney hired a private detective to investigate the judge’s wife.

On the pretext of going after an alleged cache of illegal weapons, a Maricopa SWAT team burned down an upscale suburban Phoenix home and killed the occupants’ 10-month-old dog. There were no illegal arms, so they arrested the resident on traffic citations.

Arpaio’s staff concocted an imaginary assassination attempt on the sheriff, presumably for news coverage. Taxpayers had to pay the framed defendant $1.1 million after he was found not guilty.

The sheriff’s department misspent $100 million on the sheriff’s pet projects, and wasted up to $200 million in taxpayer money on lawsuits. Yet he still found money to send a deputy to Hawaii to look for President Obama’s birth certificate.

All these antics, and many more, finally persuaded Maricopa County voters to oust the sheriff by a whopping 10-point margin. They selected his Democratic opponent, despite choosing Trump by 3 points in the same election.

Convicting Arpaio of contempt of court is similar to busting Al Capone on tax evasion. It was merely the tip of the iceberg considering his numerous violations of the public trust.

The sheriff bragged in a TV interview that he would “never give in to control by the federal government.” Unsurprisingly, Arpaio ran to the federal government for help when he found himself in legal trouble. And he got it, from a president who is just as committed to truth, justice, the rule of law, conservative principles and his oath of office. That is, not very committed at all.

Jon Gabriel is editor in chief of Ricochet.com and a contributor to The Arizona Republic. Follow him on Twitter at @exjon.

 

 

 

Poll: Jeff Flake in Double Jeopardy

High Ground

US Senator Jeff Flake in Double Electoral Jeopardy Twelve Months Away from Primary Election

Republican Party Divided – Provides Opening for Democrats

PHOENIX (August 22, 2017) — A statewide Arizona survey of 400 likely Arizona 2018 General Election voters shows Republican incumbent Senator Jeff Flake twelve points behind his primary Republican opponent Kelli Ward and eight points behind prospective Democratic opponent U.S. Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (D, AZ-9).

Q.        If the primary election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kelli Ward?

28.2%  Jeff Flake
42.5%  Kelli Ward
5.1%    Some other candidate
24.2%  Don’t know, Refused

Q.        If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kyrsten Sinema?

32.5%  Jeff Flake
40.5%  Kyrsten Sinema
27.0%  Don’t know, Refused

The Republican Primary Election sample was of 273 high efficacy Republican and PND/Independent voters and has a margin of error of ±5.93%.  The General Election sample of 400 high efficacy general election voters has a margin of error of ±4.88%.

Jeff Flake

Senator Jeff Flake

“While Election Day may still be more than a year away, Senator Jeff Flake’s campaign has a lot of work to do to persuade Republican primary voters that his form of principled Republican conservatism can trump the nativist populism that is fueling Republican voters’ antipathy towards Washington insiders.  These same Republicans still give the President a 74% approval rating in Arizona,” said Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Public Affairs, which conducted the poll.

“The good news for Senator Flake’s campaign is that the election is still a year away and his campaign has the financial support to more clearly articulate his own views and define his opponent’s positions.  Additionally, efforts to pass tax reform, infrastructure investment and other major policy initiatives could substantially change the electoral environment in Arizona,” said Coughlin.

The survey showed that Congresswoman Sinema is not known by 45% of the electorate in Arizona while Ward was beaten by nearly 100,000 votes in her primary election against Senator John McCain in 2016.

Coughlin continued, “Kelli Ward may not be well-known in light of her campaign against Senator McCain in 2016.  But even tacit support from the President, with subsequent staffing and financial resources, would be a huge boost for her chances.”

Additionally, General Election turnout in off-Presidential Cycle races in Arizona shows that Republicans historically have a twelve-point turnout advantage, which steepens the climb for any Democratic contender.

“The data clearly shows that a contentious primary fight would certainly strengthen the chances of the Democrats to pick up the seat in November of next year.  There is an opportunity for Congresswoman Sinema to take advantage of the uncertainty on the Republican side by jumping into the Senate race,” Coughlin remarked. “The question for the General Election comes down to if Congresswoman Sinema will be able to define herself first to an electorate that is largely unfamiliar with her, or if Republican third-party groups can define her in ways unacceptable to Arizona’s General Electorate.”

The survey showed that Sinema enjoys a 51% approval rating among voters in her Congressional district which is largely within the cities of Phoenix and Tempe, which are more progressive, urban areas of the State.

Although a 14-point margin is a sizeable gap for Senator Flake, Arizona is known for its volatility when it comes to statewide races. Politicos such as Governors Fife Symington and Jan Brewer have been able to successfully rally from greater margins in shorter periods of time.

Coughlin stated, “It may look dire now, but we must remember a poll is a snapshot in time.”

“Even today, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) began to remind voters that Kelli Ward is not a serious thinker when it comes to the issues confronting our country.  I would expect third-party groups like the SLF and dark money groups like Americans for Prosperity and Club for Growth to come to the Senator’s aid and tout his conservative credentials,” concluded Coughlin. “The Senator is in for the fight of his life and things will only get more difficult if the President Trump continues to pick intraparty fights.”

The audience tested in the statewide live caller survey was set to reflect the 2018 General Election in Arizona.

About the Survey

The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2018 general election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.  The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users.  Anticipated turnout for the Arizona 2018 General Election has a partisan gap of Republican +12%.

Next, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job the following persons or groups are doing:

Q.        If the primary election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kelli Ward?
[N = 273]

28.2%  Jeff Flake
42.5%  Kelli Ward
5.1%    Some other candidate
24.2%  Don’t know, Refused

Q.        If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kyrsten Sinema?

32.5%  Jeff Flake
40.5%  Kyrsten Sinema
27.0%  Don’t know, Refused

Q.        If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Kelli Ward or Kyrsten Sinema?

30.5%  Kelli Ward
31.8%  Kyrsten Sinema
37.8%  Don’t know, Refused

The survey was conducted on August 18-19th and the margin of error of the survey is ±4.88% with 95% confidence.  The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. Last year, HighGround “nailed” the Prop 123 election results within 0.2% of the outcome prior to the May 2016 Special election. Clients and surveys conducted by HighGround include League of Arizona Cities and Towns, Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona, Restoring Arizona, Arizona Hospital and Health Care Association, Education Health and Safety Coalition, local school districts, and various candidate campaigns.  Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.

Survey Demographics

Age Group:

10.8%    20 to 29
15.3%    30 to 39
19.7%    40 to 49
29.5%    50 to 64
24.7%    65 Plus

Sex:

48.0%    Male
52.0%    Female

Party:

44.2%    Republican
31.8%    Democrat
15.0%    PND
9.0%      Independent/Other

Congressional District:

11.0%    CD1
14.3%    CD2
7.0%      CD3
11.0%    CD4
12.3%    CD5
13.7%    CD6
6.0%      CD7
13.0%    CD8
11.7%    CD9

Secretary of State Completes Preliminary Review of Referendum Petitions

Michele Reagan

On August 8, 2017, Save Our Schools Arizona filed an estimated 9,078 petition sheets containing 111,540 signatures in support of R-02-2018.

The Secretary of State’s Office has completed its preliminary review of referendum petitions in accordance with Arizona law, and has determined that the committee filed 9,291 petition sheets.  Of these, 8,950 petition sheets containing 108,224 signatures remained eligible for random sampling and County Recorder review.

A 5% random sample of these signatures has been sent to the County Recorders for signature verification under Arizona law.  In order for the measure to qualify for the 2018 General Election ballot, the County Recorders must collectively validate at least 3,767 signatures (or 69.6%) from the random sample.

The deadline for County Recorder review is September 11, 2017.

Read more about Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan here.

Frosty’s Snowflakes

By Calamity June

We’ve noticed that over the last few days, Frosty’s Fake News has led with a “warning” to the rejects and sore losers who are pushing a recall against AZ GOP Chairman Jonathan Lines. A typical post reads as follows:

“Any State Committeemen Being Harassed for signing a Remove AZGOP Jonathan Lines “call” petition should notified (SIC) petition spokesman Marianne Ferrari…Harassment is a Class I misdemeanor…”

Even for the typical spittle-flecked drivel of Frosty’s Fake News, this is incredibly rich. Having engaged in a near non-stop campaign of lies, smears and bullying against Chairman Lines and his team, Frosty’s Snowflakes apparently can’t handle even a modicum of scrutiny that comes with their ill-fated effort to remove AZ GOP leadership in the middle of a crucial election cycle.

SnowflakeThese snowflakes have sent the better part of the year crying about bylaws violations that don’t exist, licking their wounds over a free and fair election that they lost, and fabricating wrongdoing for the sole purpose of grabbing power. Like the liberal snowflakes who still haven’t come to grips with President Trump’s victory, Frosty’s Snowflakes similarly are unable to grasp the fact that they were rejected by the state committee in January.

So instead of working to Make America Great Again and fight for President Trump’s agenda, they throw tantrum after tantrum while attacking grassroots Republicans and attempting to shut down discussion from anyone who disagrees with them, in the best traditions of left-wing college students in need of a “safe space.”

These are snowflakes like Bruce Piepho, who compares the AZ GOP to the rise of Adolf Hitler in Nazi Germany; like sore loser Jim O’Connor, who claims on one side of his mouth that he is uninvolved with a recall effort, then travels up to Show Low to advocate for it; like Lori Hack, who as a Never Trump Republican was removed from the RNC convention floor after refusing to support our Republican nominee. (You can find a full list of the Recall Roster here, snowflakes all.)

While real Republicans in Arizona continue to work to register voters, turn out Republicans for municipal races and lay the groundwork for a successful 2018, Frosty and her snowflakes continue in their effort to tear down the party…and then cry crocodile tears when anyone dares to criticize their destructive behavior and calls out their lies.

They represent the height of hypocrisy and the definition of Alinksy-style tactics. And once again, they will be rejected by Republicans who want to win in 2018.

Guest opinions are not necessarily the opinion or position of Sonoran Alliance or its editors.