Anti-McCain Republicans Still Not Anti-McCain Enough to Defeat McCain

 
A quick review of the Primary Election numbers on the Republican US Senate Race shows that Senator John McCain had no real threat of losing the nomination, again.

John McCain

John McCain

I went back and reviewed the official canvass from 2010 and compared those numbers with yesterday’s unofficial election results.

Here’s the comparison:

August 24, 2010 Republican Primary Election
John McCain – 333,744 / 56.25%
JD Hayworth – 190,299 / 32.07%
Jim Deakin – 69,328 / 11.68%

August 30, 2016 Republican Primary Election
John McCain – 251,068 / 51.65%
Kelli Ward – 190,618 / 39.21%
Alex Melusky – 26,805 / 5.51%
Clair Van Steenwyk – 17,649 / 3.63%
Assuming votes for any of the 2010 and 2016 challengers were “anti-McCain” votes, those votes were still not enough to overcome a re-nomination of McCain. However, those numbers rose in 2016.

2010 Primary
John McCain – 333,744 / 56.25%
Anti-McCain – 259,627 / 43.75%

Kelli Ward

Kelli Ward

2016 Primary
John McCain – 251,068 / 51.65%
Anti-McCain – 235,072 / 48.35%

Of course, this assumes that voter registration and turnout models are the same (which they are not). As you can see, John McCain collected 82, 676 fewer votes than he did in 2010. He also lost 4.6% of his edge among Republican voters.

What does this mean moving forward?

John McCain will likely face his most difficult General Election ever.

Ann Kirkpatrick

Ann Kirkpatrick

In her last campaign finance reporting, Ann Kirkpatrick disclosed she has $2.3 Million in the bank. John McCain’s last report showed just over $5 Million cash on hand. Assuming he’s depleted a portion of that amount fending off Primary challengers, and, the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee has allocated funds to Arizona, this will be McCain’s toughest campaign.

If we also consider the “Trump Factor” and the division in the Arizona Republican Party, Arizona Republicans run a higher risk of losing this US Senate seat to Ann Kirkpatrick.

Not surprising, those voting for Donald Trump may not vote for John McCain and those voting for John McCain may not be voting for Donald Trump.

I still see a divided Republican Party in Arizona between those who learned from the 2012 Presidential race and those who didn’t.

Republicans in Arizona are not united, and it’s still to be seen if they will be on November 8th.

Arizona Political Consultants Comment on GOP National Convention

Several Arizona longtime political consultants weigh in on the finale of the Republican National Convention.

Thursday night, the Arizona PBS affiliate, KAET, featured local political consultants Constantin Querard, Chuck Coughlin and Stan Barnes discussed the GOP convention with Ted Simons on Horizon.

I applaud my colleague Constantin on giving a great assessment of the convention and taking a few tough questions. Hats off to Chuck and Stan for their great assessments as well.

Here is the video of their joint appearance:

Finally, I have to beg Stan Barnes to get on Twitter. We’re waiting for you Stan!

New Poll Shows Christine Jones Leading in Arizona’s CD-5

OH Predictive Insights
Outsider Message Resonating in AZ05 Congressional Race

PHOENIX (July 21, 2016) — Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, which holds the reputation of one of the securest Republican seats in the country, is set to elect a new congressman this November. Within the past seven weeks the race has changed, as outsider Christine Jones has surged into the lead with only two weeks until early voting begins for the primary election.

In a survey conducted on July 19 of 408 likely Republican primary voters, undecided voters have dropped 26 percentage points since the last poll conducted on June 2. Despite the competition seen in the June 2 poll, the race has tightened up and Christine Jones now sits atop of the respective Republican field, ahead her nearest competitor by 7 percentage points.

AZ05PollSheet1

“Within the last seven weeks Christine Jones came from almost last place to now leading one of the most sought-after congressional seats in the country,” Mike Noble, Pollster & Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights, said. “This is an election cycle unlike any other and Christine Jones is a perfect example of why this cycle may be forever referred to as, ‘The Year of the Outsider.’”

AZ05PollSheet2

*May not equal 100% due to rounding

“When it comes to the battle of the faith vote Andy Biggs and Don Stapley garned just over half of the LDS demographic.  Christine Jones made significant improvement in the other non-LDS religious communities,” Noble added.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on July 19, 2016, from a sample of likely Republican Primary voters across Arizona who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the upcoming Arizona Republican Primary for Congress. The sample size was 408 completed surveys, with a Margin of Error of +/-4.84%

Read the press release online.

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About OH Predictive Insights
With Owens Harkey Advertising’s marketing and creative service resources coupled with OH Strategic Communication’s unparalleled messaging and strategic planning expertise, OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing. Leading Arizona pollster Michael Noble from MBQF Consulting brings proprietary social statistics software and services to OH Predictive Insights providing clients with tools to solve their most challenging problems. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159.

Trump vs Cruz: Doing the math at the AZGOP State Convention

By Lisa Gray (reposted from Facebook.)

I’ve been reading/hearing things that are being said about the AZGOP State Convention on Saturday, that are just not accurate and this is extremely disappointing.

First, Trump camp is repeating the line that “more people clicked the Trump slate button than any other slate and therefore should have won more delegates.” Well, let’s look at that. Attached is a picture (and link) to the vote totals. Please note that when you add the number of “clicks” on Cruz (409) + “Select Own Delegates (180 people chose not to use a slate) + Kasich (57) + Unity Slate (29) = 675. So… 675 people apparently didn’t click on the Trump slate but 430 did. You tell me what number is larger? So it’s not true that more people clicked on the Trump link so therefore he should have gotten more delegate votes.

Cruz vs Trump Math

Second, if you clicked on the Trump button (or any of the selection buttons) ALL the candidates appeared. The only difference is depending on which slate selection you chose, names on that particular slate were already checked for you. HOWEVER, names could be unchecked and people could for example vote for 80% of the slate if they wanted to and then vote for another 20% who weren’t on that particular slate. So it was never a given, nor should it have been expected, that people would just blindly click one button and boom, they were done voting and they all voted the EXACT same way. Remember…some people weren’t on slates, so perhaps they wanted to vote for themselves, a few of their close campaign buddies who also weren’t on the slate, and then the rest from the slate…they were able to do that.

Third, comments from the Trump campaign that the voting was a mess, the system didn’t work and they should be allowed to vote again, on paper is also bothersome. For those who don’t know, about 700 people submitted their name to be National Delegates and all the names could NOT fit on one ballot. So, ALL THREE CAMPAIGNS met together, evaluated and approved the online voting method. YES… ALL THREE AGREED on this prior to Saturday.

Fourth, people were left off of slates. Now I really have no idea if this is true or not. What I can tell you is that the campaigns were responsible for their slates. And I’m disappointed to hear it said that someone was “cheated” and an election was “stolen” from them. However, what I do know is that Jan Brewer was elected as an alternate delegate in CD8. She and Phil Lovas tied for the first alternate position. A coin toss was done to break the tie and Brewer called heads, tails won and therefore Lovas won the first alternate delegate position. So she did win an alternate delegate position but then declined it and withdrew her name from that position so she could run for an at-large delegate position. Again, I have no idea what happened to her not being on the “Trump slate” however, she did win an alternate delegate position in her Congressional District and chose not to accept it. Also, she may not have been on the at-large “Trump slate” for whatever reason but she was on the “Unity” slate and her name was on the ballot listing all the candidates that were running for at-large delegates positions and she received 93 votes.

I want to thank the staff of the AZGOP for a well run meeting. If anyone attended the convention 4 years ago, you know how much better this meeting was! Lets remember that this meeting took months to plan, some didn’t sleep for days, and they worked their tails off to make it the best meeting they could…for all of us. Of course there were hiccups and there usually are when you are planning a meeting for more than 1,000 people that also needed to include multiple voting locations, multiple ballots to accommodate 700ish names, security, credentials, volunteers, feeding everyone, etc. We have a great team not only at the AZGOP, but also across our great state. And I pray that even though we may not agree on candidates, and sometimes issues, that we would take a deep breath, look for the truth and have respect for one another.

Here’s the link to the results: https://neverhillary.simplyvoting.com/index.php?mode=results&election=43455

Lisa Gray is a longtime volunteer Republican precinct committeewoman and former chairman of a west valley legislative district.

Mormon Voters Really Don’t Like Donald Trump. Here’s Why.

An interesting read by BuzzFeed’s McKay Coppins on the relationship between Utah’s LDS population and the Trump campaign. Given Arizona’s active LDS population does that same sentiment translate here?

It’s not just Mitt Romney.

By McKay Coppins

Speaking before one of his smallest crowds this campaign season, Donald Trump declared Friday night at a rally in Salt Lake City that he loves the Mormons.

The feeling does not appear to be mutual.

So far in 2016, members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints have proven to be one of the most stubbornly anti-Trump constituencies in the Republican Party — a dynamic that will likely manifest itself in Utah’s presidential caucuses next week.

National polling data focused on Mormons voters is hard to come by, but the election results speak for themselves. Even as Trump has steamrolled his way through the GOP primaries, he has repeatedly been trounced in places with large LDS populations.

(Continue reading at BuzzFeed)

Sean Noble: Trump, the greatest hoax played on the American people

Here is a great assessment by my political consultant peer Sean Noble regarding the current state of the Republican Party and what is driving the Trump faction in the GOP.

Sean recently appeared on Carey Peña Reports which is available on iTunes podcasts.

Although the interview was recorded on this last Tuesday with the prediction that Marco Rubio would mount a comeback in Florida, the rest of the assessment is spot on when it comes to what is driving the frenzy around Trump and how it will redefine or even destroy the Republican party.

I agree with Sean on this assessment and its one of the reasons why I cannot sit back and allow the GOP to be hijacked out of emotion and without a good dose of critical thinking.

Another point I agree with Sean on is that it is only about 20-25% of the population that is driving the Trump movement – a very loud and angry vocal minority.

Here’s the interview and be sure to subscribe to Carey Peña Reports via Inspired Media 360 available on iTunes.

 

Does Your State Want to Replace Electoral College With Popular Vote for President?

Natalie JohnsonBy Natalie Johnson
(Reposted from The Daily Signal)

An 11th state looks ready to join a national movement to sideline the Electoral College and decide presidential elections by popular vote.

A bipartisan bill moving through the Arizona legislature aims to reallocate the state’s 11 electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the majority of votes on a national scale rather than the candidate who wins the state.

The legislation is part of a nationwide push called the National Popular Vote plan, an effort to create an agreement among states that vow to automatically elect the president of the United States using the national popular vote instead of the final vote count in each respective state.

Robert Hathorne, a Republican activist residing in Arizona, warns that the initiative would “fundamentally change America” by shifting the national political system from a representative democracy to a pure democracy.

“Majority rules was the greatest fear of our Founding Fathers; this is why ‘democracy’ is not written one time in the 4,543 words of the Constitution,” Hathorne told The Daily Signal.

The framers of the Constitution established the Electoral College to give smaller states a voice against larger states when selecting the nation’s leader. Electoral votes are delegated based on a state’s population. Rhode Island, for example, has four electoral votes, while California has 55.

A presidential candidate currently needs a majority of 270 of the Electoral College’s 538 votes to win the White House.

Hans von Spakovsky, a senior legal fellow at The Heritage Foundation, said the National Popular Vote initiative seeks to breach the Constitution and likely would end up in the U.S. Supreme Court.

“This entirely changes how the president is elected, and therefore, it affects the basic structure of the Electoral College and the Constitution,” von Spakovsky told The Daily Signal.

Advocates are working to secure support from enough states to reach 270 guaranteed electoral votes, which effectively would throw the outcome of presidential races into the hands of the popular vote.

So far, 10 heavily Democratic states—California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington—have joined the District of Columbia in signing such legislation into law.

Those states make up 165 electoral votes, meaning the initiative has reached roughly 60 percent of the 270 votes needed to reach its goal of sidelining the Electoral College. Arizona would make it 176. The pact won’t go into effect until enough states sign on to hit 270 votes.

Instead of amending the Constitution to eliminate the Electoral College, popular vote advocates are working around the challenging ratification process by going through the states.

Doing away with the Electoral College completely requires a constitutional amendment, meaning two-thirds of both the House and Senate would have to vote for repeal, and then another three-fourths of the states would have to ratify the new amendment.

The National Popular Vote initiative instead works on the state level through an interstate compact requiring far fewer states to support the new process and reach 270 electoral votes. In fact, that number could have been as low as 11 states.

Article I, Section 10 of the Constitution reads: “No state shall, without the consent of Congress … enter into any agreement or compact with another state or with a foreign power.”

Heritage’s von Spakovsky notes that the Supreme Court clarified this provision in the case Virginia v. Tennessee, ruling that only those interstate agreements that increase state power while diminishing federal power must be submitted for congressional approval.

If the National Popular Vote effort reaches its goal of 270 electoral votes, von Spakovsky predicts, the states that decided not to join the pact immediately will file a lawsuit and ultimately land the case in the Supreme Court.

Opponents of national elections by popular vote, including von Spakovsky and Hathorne, argue that the change would create incentives to commit voter fraud in single-party states and jurisdictions.

In deep-blue New York, for example, the incentive for voter fraud isn’t high, because residents know the state is going to elect a Democrat regardless. But if you move from a state-by-state voting system to a national one, von Spakovsky warns, the incentive to “stuff” voting boxes rises: Not only would a Democrat win New York, but he or she could win the national election.

“Why should as few as 12 to 15 states that make up 270 electoral votes rule over 35 other states?” Hathorne asked.

Proponents such as those working for FairVote, for example, argue that the Electoral College creates a “winner takes all” system that drives disparity between “swing” states, where candidates actively campaign, and “solid” states, which the organization says are largely ignored.

Advocates of a popular vote say the change would make every state significant during the election process.

Today, it’s possible for candidates to secure the White House without winning the popular vote across the nation.

In 2000,  George W. Bush won the presidency after the Supreme Court determined he had won Florida even though Al Gore, his Democratic opponent, won the majority of votes nationally. Bush edged Gore by five electoral votes.

The National Popular Vote movement sprung up in the mid-2000s following Gore’s contentious defeat. Through it, a candidate could win a plurality of the national vote and clinch the big seat.

The change “would make recounts an absolute nightmare,” von Spakovsky said, adding:

If electing a president is based entirely on who wins the national popular vote, if that were the 2000 situation, it would have forced a recount in the entire country because every single vote could’ve made a major difference.
In Arizona, the legislation enjoys broad support from both parties in both the House and Senate. But von Spakovsky says voters actually will lose influence if the state switches to the popular vote idea.

He said paid lobbyists, backed by enormous amounts of money, are feeding state legislators “false information” to advance the movement.

“The legislators who have signed on this are being fooled and are being foolish in voting for it,” von Spakovsky said.

Natalie Johnson is a news reporter for The Daily Signal and graduate of The Heritage Foundation’s Young Leaders Program. You can follow her on Twitter at @NatalieJohnsonn

Tyler Bowyer and AJ LaFaro: The Democrats Secret Weapon

A shout out to our friends at PoliticsArizona.com for this post!

Tyler Bowyer ran for MCRC Chairman promising unity and a stop to the disease of divisiveness that plagued the party under AJ LaFaro. Bowyer promised to turn the page.

Bowyer lied. And in doing so, stabbed his former friend Robert Graham squarely between the shoulder blades. Here’s hoping Chairman Graham won’t forget.

On Saturday, Bowyer flat out went after Graham, the popular Arizona GOP Chairman, conspiring with LaFaro to bring a doomed “censure” of the Chairman to the floor.

While publicly he pretends to support unifying the party…

Bowyer Tweet

…Bowyer is clearly working as a pawn in LaFaro’s plot to divide the party. In a video exclusively obtained by Politics Arizona, Bowyer is seen huddling with LaFaro as their efforts to “censure” Chairman Graham go down in flames.

The next time Tyler Bowyer pats you on the back, be sure to get checked out for stab wounds.

Our take on what’s happening with the Arizona Republican Party in 2016?

Delegate stacking!

There is an effort to put delegates committed to Donald Trump into state delegate positions before the Republican State Convention on April 30th. Those elections of delegates will take place from March 26 – April 9th.

State law states that delegates of the parties shall “make their best effort” to support the winner of the presidential preference election. That Presidential Preference Election will take place on March 22, 2016. Arizona is called a “Winner Take All” state.

If Donald Trump wins the Presidential Preference Election on March 22nd AND, the delegates elected to the Arizona State Convention on April 30th are committed to Trump, there will not be a conflict.

But, if Ted Cruz wins the PPE, AND delegates elected to the Arizona State Convention have pledged to Donald Trump, there will be a massive party fight.

Thus, the theory is  that individuals like AJ LaFaro and Rob Haney ferociously recruited Trump-committed precinct committeemen in 2015 so that Tyler Bowyer would appoint these individuals to elect the delegates to the national convention.

KJZZ: Constantin Querard and Shane Wikfors discuss the schism in the Maricopa GOP

Steve Goldstein with the Phoenix NPR affiliate, KJZZ, interviewed Republican consultants Constantin Querard and Shane Wikfors today on his show Here and Now.

ConstantinQuerardQuerard and Wikfors who are both conservative Republicans, discussed the ongoing intra-party battle taking place at the Maricopa County GOP level for several years.

Shane WikforsAt the center of the battle is Arizona senior Senator John McCain and a handful of Republican precinct committeemen.

Listen as Querard details how this fight began, how it has affected the rank-and-file Republican activists and how it continues to play out in GOP in-fighting.
Wikfors, who is resigning his position as a Republican precinct committeeman, describes how the in-fighting is affecting the GOP brand and party’s ability to grow and raise money.

Arizona Conservative Leadership Grassroots Training Sessions!

The Leadership Institute, Arizona Rock Products Association, and The Aarons Company LLC invite you to attend their Grassroots Campaign Academy.  This program is an intensive four-month program designed to give candidates and those who support them the skills necessary to fight and win in today’s competitive public policy arena.

At this academy, the nation’s top campaign trainers and leading political experts will empower you with the tools to make a difference in your community.

Participants attend four, full-day seminars over four months focused on:  strategy, communications, fundraising, and voter contact.

What: 4 Saturdays learning the skills necessary to become a leader
Where: 916 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
How much: $200 for 4 Seminars
(includes meals and course materials)
Click HERE to Register Now

Dates:  January 23, February 20, March 19, April 16
Register Today
If you are interested in attending individual sessions they will be available at $79 per session.

Complete the online registration form and you will be enrolled for all four sessions.  Thanks to the leadership of the Arizona Rock Products Association and The Aarons Company LLC, this incredible program is now being offered for only $200.00 if you register and pay by January 1, 2016.

This is one campaign training you won’t want to miss. Sign up here and join conservative activists across the country who are ready to learn to win.

Best,

Robert Arnakis
Senior Director of Domestic and International Programs

P.S.  Register today for the Phoenix Campaign Academy and learn to win.