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Political Parties

Christine Jones & Tony Cani on KJZZ’s The Show

Former gubernatorial and congressional candidate, Christine Jones, along with Democrat strategist Tony Cani, joined The Show to discuss post-primary election results and what the winners and losers do now heading into the General Election.

Chuck Coughlin Discusses Arizona Primary Election Results

Arizona HighGround President & CEO, Chuck Coughlin, was a recent guest on KJZZ’s The Show discussing Primary Election results and Republican victory prospects heading into the November General Election.

Sitting down with KJZZ reporters, Steve Goldstein and Lauren Gilger, Coughlin provided a great assessment of the “Nightmare” or “Doomsday Slate” and the possible outcome for Trump-slate Republicans.

Coughlin did not express much confidence that candidates like Kari Lake and Mark Finchem can pivot back to the center to appeal to a broader General Election electorate. And, while the Arizona Republican Party is in a major civil war with itself, Democrats have an opportunity to pick up statewide seats in November.

Who Is ‘Securing Arizona’ PAC?

Securing Arizona PAC is a political action committee filed with the Arizona Secretary of State dedicated to maligning and attacking a longtime conservative and statesman, Rusty Bowers.

This PAC is registered with the Elections Division of the Arizona Secretary of State and has as its Chairman and Treasurer, Youssef Khalaf.

According to the most recent campaign finance reports, Securing Arizona PAC has spent $48,500 with Phoenix-based The Resolute Group and $17,355 with Delaware-based political consultants, In Field Strategies.

The most recent campaign finance trigger report (6/6/22) also shows that the PAC has not reported any contributions although the PAC has a negative cash balance of $113,210 on hand.

This same PAC is also attacking State Senator Tyler Pace, another proven East-Valley conservative while it attempts to push through other Republicans named Robert Scantlebury and David Farnsworth. Farnsworth served in the State Senate almost two years ago and retired from politics but became radicalized and joined the MAGA mob after the 2020 Election.

Pace is facing a challenge in the new legislative district 9 from Scantlebury while Bowers faces his challenge from Farnsworth in the new legislative district 10.

On paper, each candidate is in issue alignment on over 95% of conservative principles.

Disappointingly, Securing Arizona PAC is putting out blatant propaganda and lies about Bowers and Pace. If I were to speculate, it’s because both Bowers and Pace won’t bow in submission to the Big Lie, conspiracy-theorists, Trump suckups running the Arizona Republican Party. Bowers refused to go along with the hyper-MAGA subterfuge efforts down at the Arizona Legislature and even received a national award for his courage under fire.

When the next campaign finance reports are filed, we will reveal who is giving money to the Securing Arizona PAC in order to show who is orchestrating these attacks on good conservative leaders.

As I like to say, “for every political action, there is an opposite and greater than political reaction.”

Finally it should be noted that Sonoran Alliance does endorse Tyler Pace for State Senate in LD9 and Rusty Bowers for State Senate in LD10. We are certain that these two conservative Republican leaders deserve to serve in the Arizona State Senate.

Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers On Republicanism

Poll: Democrats Support Ousting Sinema in 2024 Primary

Kelly Faces Alarming Favorables One Year Out from Election

Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here

PHOENIX (November 22nd, 2021)- When Sen. Mark Kelly was elected in 2020, his victory marked the first time Arizona was represented by two Democrats in the United States Senate since the early-1950s. Since taking office, Kelly has established himself as more of a party-line Democrat, while his colleague, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, has ruffled feathers by opposing some of her party’s key priorities. A new Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) suggests that both Democrats could be in danger of losing their runs at re-election.

This AZPOP survey was conducted November 1st – November 8th, 2021 and surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of +/-3.7%.

Sinema Favorables

Since President Joe Biden’s inauguration, many of his ambitious legislative priorities – such as voting rights reform, his budget framework, and climate change legislation – have been stalled in the evenly divided Senate. Many blame the stalled legislation on Sinema, and OHPI’s polling suggests that Arizona Democrats are starting to have the same feeling.

kyrsten sinema favorability

Kyrsten Sinema’s favorability ratings are roughly split among Arizona voters, with 42% viewing her favorably and 45% viewing her unfavorably. What is especially interesting is the Democratic Senator’s ratings across the aisle – Sinema’s numbers with Republicans are above water while her numbers with Democrats are underwater. Forty-eight percent of Republicans view Sinema favorably and 45% view her unfavorably. Meanwhile, just 42% of Sen. Sinema’s own party view her in a favorable light and 47% hold an unfavorable view of her.

Sinema’s Primary Woes
“Sen. Sinema’s growing unpopularity with voters from within her own party could prove fatal in 2024 when she will have to ask for Democrats’ support for re-nomination,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “While there is still time between now and then, Sinema has ground to make up with her constituents in the next three years.”

When asked who they would prefer as a U.S. Senator given the options of Sinema, a Republican, and a Democrat other than Sinema, only 26% of Arizona Democrats said that they would prefer Sinema, while another 72% chose a Democrat other than Kyrsten Sinema.

preferred US Senator

Senator Sinema also currently trails in hypothetical primary matchups. Against Phoenix Rep. Ruben Gallego, 47% said that they would support Gallego while 24% said that they would support Sinema. Rep. Greg Stanton, Sinema’s successor in Congress, leads his predecessor by an identical margin in a hypothetical primary match-up. Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman also bests Sinema by 20 points.

“Sinema’s holding out on the reconciliation bill caused a lot of political pressure from left wing of her party, and her numbers were beginning to sour because of it,” said Mike Noble. “she was walking a delicate tight rope, see in numbers now, rope was looking more like fishing wire.”

Filibuster
Sinema’s opposition to reforming the Senate filibuster has angered many progressives. Arizona’s electorate, however, is having a difficult time gauging the Senator’s exact position on the Senate rule. The survey found that 42% of Arizona voters believe Sinema supports the filibuster, while a statistically equivalent 39% are unsure where she stands.

With less than a year until he must face voters once again, results of this latest AZPOP survey could serve as a warning sign for Sen. Mark Kelly, as the freshman Democratic Senator’s favorable numbers are underwater by seven percentage points – he is viewed favorably by 41% of Arizona voters, and unfavorably by 48%.

Unlike Sinema, Kelly’s numbers with partisans fall in line with your typical swing state Democratic Senator: 75% of Democrats view him favorably, and 76% of Republicans view him unfavorably. His low numbers can also be attributed to Independents, with whom he is underwater by 10 points.

“As President Biden faces his lowest approval ratings since taking office, voters are turning their frustration to Democratic candidates,” said Noble. “That’s something Senator Kelly should keep in mind as he faces re-election in one of the country’s closest swing states.”

Favorability of Democratic Politicians

Biden’s Economic Agenda
Nationwide polling has found decent support for President Biden’s key legislative priorities among voters, even as the President himself faces low approvals. Arizona has been no exception to this trend.

In the Grand Canyon State, support for the Build Back Better Act – the President’s economic framework – is six points above water. Forty-seven percent of Arizona voters support the bill while 41% oppose it. Even Independents, who are currently key players in driving Biden’s unpopularity, narrowly support the bill (46% support the bill, 39% oppose it).

The Takeaway
“Both Sinema and Kelly have work to do if they want to hold onto their seats,” said Mike Noble. “For Sinema, she must rebuild some of the bridges she seems to have burned with voters in her own party. For Kelly, he will likely have to navigate a midterm environment with an unpopular Democratic President.”

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 1st to November 8th, 2021 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 713 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.7%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. 

Press Release: GOP Establishment Could be Trumped in 2024

58% of Arizona Republicans Want the Former President to Make a Comeback
Toplines and crosstabs can be found here
PHOENIX (November 18th, 2021)- Despite the nearly three years until the next presidential election, a new poll by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) finds that more than half of Arizona Republicans believe Donald Trump should follow in Grover Cleveland’s footsteps and become the first former president in more than a century to seek the office after losing re-election. The poll finds that, should he decide to run, Trump would be a prohibitive favorite in the race for the GOP nomination, running far ahead of any competitor in a crowded field. This survey was the newest edition of OH Predictive Insights’ Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). The AZPOP is a statewide survey that provides regular updates on the moods, opinions, and perceptions of Arizonans on hot topics facing the state. This AZPOP was conducted November 1st – November 8th, 2021 and surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. Although nearly six in ten Arizona GOP voters believe that former President Trump should launch another presidential campaign, the belief is not shared widely outside of the party. Only 27% of Independent voters and less than one in 10 Democrats believe that Trump should run again. On the other hand, nearly half (48%) of Independents and 80% of Democrats think that Donald Trump should “definitely not” make another run at the presidency.
2024 GOP primary chart trump run
“While former President Trump may be the ideal candidate for Republicans, nominating him could spell disaster for the party’s hopes to retake the White House,” said OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. “With only a quarter of Independents and even fewer Democrats wanting a ‘Trump comeback,’ he may not be a viable candidate in the Grand Canyon State.”Diving deeper into Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination in 2024, he holds a commanding lead at this point in the cycle. Crowded primary fields have become a trend in presidential politics recently – more than 15 Republicans participated in at least one debate in the 2016 GOP primary, and more than 20 Democrats did so in their party’s 2020 primary – and if the 2024 GOP primary shakes out in a similar way, with multiple Republicans running against Trump, the former president is in a solid position to face whomever the Democrats nominate heading into the 2024 general election. Given the option of nine prominent Republicans (Former President Donald Trump, Former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Utah Senator Mitt Romney, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney, and Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie), 48% of Arizona Republicans would support Trump, 16% would vote for DeSantis, and no other candidate receives more than 10% support.
2024 GOP Primary trump v others
“In a fractured primary field, it is easy to see how Donald Trump could walk away with the 2024 nomination,” said Joss. “Yet, despite Trump earning 48% of Republicans’ support, what pro-Trump Republicans should be most concerned about – and anti-Trump Republicans should be most hopeful for – is the remaining 52% of GOP voters uniting around one non-Trump candidate.”The survey also found that, in the eyes of Arizona Republicans, Donald Trump Jr. would not be a suitable replacement for his father should the former president decide against another White House run. When asked the same 2024 GOP primary question, but replacing Donald Trump for Donald Trump Jr., the younger Trump earned the support of 8% of Republicans overall, and just 14% of Republicans who would support his father in a primary election. Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence are the candidates who stand to benefit the most without the former president on the ballot, earning 29% and 21% of Republicans’ support, respectively. Ted Cruz (10%) is the only other candidate with double-digit support. The 2024 GOP Primary becomes murkier without the former president on the ballot, as the share of those unsure whom to support nearly doubles from 9% Unsure with Trump on the ballot to 16% Unsure without him.
2024 GOP Primary Trump Jr.
“As Don Jr.’s performance shows, there is something about former President Trump that Arizona Republicans like more than just the name Donald Trump,” said Joss.
###Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 1st to November 8th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 713 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.7%. The sample of registered voters also contained a subsample of 252 respondents who self-identified as being registered members of the Republican party. This subsample has a MoE +/- 6.2%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Recalls Have Unintended Consequences!

In the latest video by Scottsdale Studios and We the People AZ Alliance, activists in the group announced more Republicans are now their recall targets. (I predicted this. Where does it stop?)

Maricopa County Supervisor Steve Chucri and State Senator Paul Boyer are the latest elected officials who they have filed recall applications against.

In addition, the Trump-obsessed group announced they were pulling recall applications against Republican Governor Doug Ducey, Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and Democrat Superintendent of Public Instruction, Kathy Hoffmann.

(It’s only a matter of time before they file recalls against Attorney General Mark Brnovich, State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, The Corporation Commission and State Mine Inspector Joe Hart! And anyone else that doesn’t pass their purity test!)

In the video, Verl Farnsworth, who once ran for US President and other local offices, whips up the crowd promising even more recalls sometime in the next week. Farnsworth indicates they will recall one more member of the House of Representatives, another State Senator, one mayor of a city in Maricopa County and several members of city councils.

What does this mean?

First, recall efforts are extremely difficult campaigns to pull off. The last successful effort occurred in 2011 when former State Senator Russell Pearce was targeted and removed from office. Recall signature campaigns are extremely difficult because they require the collection of tens of thousands of valid signatures within a 120-day period. There’s a reason why they were set up to be difficult!

Second, even if a signature collection effort is successful in obtaining the minimum number of signatures, they must be validated AND are always challenged in court. On top of that, there is an appeals process that takes time and costs money.

Third, Democrats always take advantage of Republican on Republican violence. Vote splitting will occur.

Recall campaigns run a challenger Republican candidate against the elected Republican who doesn’t pass their “purity test.” Democrats plot and wait for this to happen and take advantage of a vote split even in the most Republican of districts. The challenger won’t win. The elected official won’t survive the recall. The Democrat will win. Democrat elected!

Recalls are a bad idea. Normal election cycles work. Primary Elections work. They allow the parties to purify their candidates.

These recalls are based on ignorance and revenge.

If these recalls succeed, the unintended consequence will be that Democrats will take control of almost all authority in Arizona and the recallers will have put themselves and all Republicans into a state of tyranny.

Don’t sign the petitions and pray the recall effort fails.

Recall Virus!

Arizona Republican elected officials appear to be suffering an outbreak of Recall Virus-20 with Maricopa County now declared a hotspot.

The source of the virus seems to have originated in a West Valley Glendale lab run by We the People AZ Alliance with potential links to Republican members in the Arizona State Senate.

Recall Virus-20

Most recently, infections of Recall Virus-20 were confirmed among county government elected Supervisors Jack Sellars, Bill Gates, Clint Hickman and Steve Gallardo.

Currently all Supervisors are showing little or no harm.

Although one Democrat Supervisors has been infected, it seems Republicans are the most susceptible victims.

It is also unconfirmed that one State Senator from LD20 may have also been exposed to this vicious political virus.

Recall Virus-20 appears to spread quickly through highly emotional superspreaders that demonstrate disoriented, irrational and even rabid symptoms.

Republican elected officials are most at risk with voter signatures identified as the main agent attacking the elected official.

Sonoran Alliance has calculated risk levels and political survival rates for Republicans who may be attacked by the virus. Here are those numbers:

Karen Fann – 36,444 signatures
Sonny Borrelli – 22,077 signatures
Wendy Rogers – 30,803 signatures
TJ Shope – 21,651 signatures
Vince Leach – 33,346 signatures
Warren Petersen – 39,001 signatures
Sine Kerr – 23,397 signatures
David Gowan – 26,515 signatures
Nancy Barto – 23,148 signatures
Kelly Townsend – 24,510 signatures
JD Mesnard – 32,313 signatures
Paul Boyer – 25,199 signatures
Rick Gray – 18,966 signatures
David Livingston – 38,260 signatures
Michelle Ugenti-Rita – 37,952 signatures
Tyler Pace – 28,623 signatures

Arizona Senate Republicans should exercise extreme caution and avoid all contact with recall superspreaders in order to avoid being infected by the virus or becoming superspreaders themselves.

Democrat elected officials appear to be at very low risk to the Recall Virus-20.

Trump Lost. Get Over It!

Time to toss a grenade in the room.

This video is complete bullshit! This is nothing more than playing on people’s fears and anxiety by misleading them down a dead end of misinformation.

Scottsdale Studios put this together and I will find out who paid them. And if taxpayer dollars were used, a complaint will be filed.

I also challenge this amateur video crew to conduct the same interviews in downtown Tempe, downtown Phoenix or even downtown Gilbert.

The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors have done NOTHING wrong, unethical or illegal. They did their job.

If you really believe the election was stolen in Maricopa County, do you not think that the former Democrat County Recorder would have won along with two new progressive Democrat Supervisors so they could cover up the steal? If you recall, the first few days after the election, two Republican supervisors were losing. Even the new Republican County Recorder knows the election was not stolen!

The truth is that starting in 2018, Democrat activists outworked Republicans building a machine ready for 2020. They identified and registered thousands of new people and motivated them to vote against Trump.

Why was there no outcry after the 2018 General Election? Why was there no outcry after the 2020 Primary Election? Why now? Where were you people when we lost the US Senate seat in 2018 and 2020? Where were you people when we lost the Superintendent of Public Instruction, Secretary of State and Corporation Commission seats???

Where you lose all credibility – besides not being able to make a logical argument or provide evidence – is when you leave our other Republican candidates behind.

Your fatal flaw is you put all your faith in Donald Trump to be your savior while failing to fight for the other Republican candidates.

Trump lost in Maricopa County because there were more people who didn’t vote for him than did vote for him.

Your problem is not with the Board of Supervisors. It’s not with the new Republican Recorder. Your problem is with the people who got tired of Trump’s bullying, antics, drama, incompetence, tantrums, authoritarianism and performance. Your problem is with the 51,465 freedom-loving, anti-big government people who voted for the Libertarian candidate.

The election is over and sure, there will be an audit but that won’t be enough to break your cognitive dissonance that Trump actually did lose.

If Republicans don’t get focused and back on mission instead of living in the past, this state is going to turn deeper purple and then dark blue in 2022.

2020 AZ Primary Early Vote Wrap-Up

What happened and what it means for November

With the primary election tomorrow, we’re giving you our takeaways from the early vote data. There are still tens of thousands of ballots to be cast on Election Day, but the ballots mailed back thus far paint an interesting picture.

Here are the high-level highlights you need to know going into Tuesday:

  • 1,063,828 Ballots Cast
  • 2,316,329 Ballots Requested
  • 45.6% Return Rate
  • 26.7% Turnout
  • 0.9% Democrat Ballot Advantage (representing 9,900 ballots) 

Interesting takeaways: 

  1. Turnout is high: We have seen more overall ballots returned than ever before in a primary election – 1,063,828. As a comparison, we saw about 835,000 ballots returned in 2018 and 682,000 in 2016. While we don’t know yet if these are people who would usually drop their ballots off, we are on pace to hit at least 30% overall turnout.
  2. Democratic turnout is exceeding Republican turnout: While we don’t know how Election Day turnout will fare, we are on pace to see something that we haven’t seen in Arizona in at least the last two decades – more Democratic ballots cast than Republican ballots. There is some hope for Republicans, though, Democrats have 1.4% more of their ballots returned. That 1.4% represents about 15,000 Republican ballots.   
  3. More Independents have cast Democratic ballots than Republican: In Arizona, Independents can choose to vote in either party primary or cast a non-partisan ballot. This year, they have cast a total of 117,845 ballots and about 8,800 more in Democratic primaries than Republican. As a comparison, in the previous two cycles Independents have cast between 10,000 and 12,000 more ballots in Republican primaries than in the Democratic primaries.

While primary turnout does not specifically correlate to general election performance, Republicans need a big Election Day performance to mitigate some of these troubling numbers. Democrats have not traditionally had a lot of primary elections – which has driven down their turnout in the last two cycles – but high turnout this year is occurring in places with and without contested primaries on the Democratic side. 
We will have at least one additional update from Maricopa and Pima counties today that can be seen here. Stay tuned for a full debrief post-election to see if these trends from mailed early ballots held or if the trends simply represented Democratic voters mailing in versus dropping off on Election Day because of COVID concerns.

*Data is current as of 8/02/20 at 6:00pm*
Looking ahead to the General Election
 As mentioned before, we decided to share our entire primary ballot tracker with the public but will be providing general election early vote tracking via paid subscription only. We apologize for any confusion we may have caused in our previous email regarding the general election subscription model. We will continue to release basic, high level numbers publicly for the general election (total ballots and party breakdown, statewide only) but for those looking for greater detail and analysis, we will be offering two subscription levels.

Level One will provide full current year breakdowns similar to what is currently shown on our primary election tracker.

Level Two will have comparison data for the previous two cycles and will add in additional filtration features.

If you have any questions or would like to subscribe for the general election tracker, you can contact Data Orbital here

ABOUT DATA ORBITAL: 

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience.  We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead. 

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