Recalls Have Unintended Consequences!

In the latest video by Scottsdale Studios and We the People AZ Alliance, activists in the group announced more Republicans are now their recall targets. (I predicted this. Where does it stop?)

Maricopa County Supervisor Steve Chucri and State Senator Paul Boyer are the latest elected officials who they have filed recall applications against.

In addition, the Trump-obsessed group announced they were pulling recall applications against Republican Governor Doug Ducey, Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and Democrat Superintendent of Public Instruction, Kathy Hoffmann.

(It’s only a matter of time before they file recalls against Attorney General Mark Brnovich, State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, The Corporation Commission and State Mine Inspector Joe Hart! And anyone else that doesn’t pass their purity test!)

In the video, Verl Farnsworth, who once ran for US President and other local offices, whips up the crowd promising even more recalls sometime in the next week. Farnsworth indicates they will recall one more member of the House of Representatives, another State Senator, one mayor of a city in Maricopa County and several members of city councils.

What does this mean?

First, recall efforts are extremely difficult campaigns to pull off. The last successful effort occurred in 2011 when former State Senator Russell Pearce was targeted and removed from office. Recall signature campaigns are extremely difficult because they require the collection of tens of thousands of valid signatures within a 120-day period. There’s a reason why they were set up to be difficult!

Second, even if a signature collection effort is successful in obtaining the minimum number of signatures, they must be validated AND are always challenged in court. On top of that, there is an appeals process that takes time and costs money.

Third, Democrats always take advantage of Republican on Republican violence. Vote splitting will occur.

Recall campaigns run a challenger Republican candidate against the elected Republican who doesn’t pass their “purity test.” Democrats plot and wait for this to happen and take advantage of a vote split even in the most Republican of districts. The challenger won’t win. The elected official won’t survive the recall. The Democrat will win. Democrat elected!

Recalls are a bad idea. Normal election cycles work. Primary Elections work. They allow the parties to purify their candidates.

These recalls are based on ignorance and revenge.

If these recalls succeed, the unintended consequence will be that Democrats will take control of almost all authority in Arizona and the recallers will have put themselves and all Republicans into a state of tyranny.

Don’t sign the petitions and pray the recall effort fails.

Recall Virus!

Arizona Republican elected officials appear to be suffering an outbreak of Recall Virus-20 with Maricopa County now declared a hotspot.

The source of the virus seems to have originated in a West Valley Glendale lab run by We the People AZ Alliance with potential links to Republican members in the Arizona State Senate.

Recall Virus-20

Most recently, infections of Recall Virus-20 were confirmed among county government elected Supervisors Jack Sellars, Bill Gates, Clint Hickman and Steve Gallardo.

Currently all Supervisors are showing little or no harm.

Although one Democrat Supervisors has been infected, it seems Republicans are the most susceptible victims.

It is also unconfirmed that one State Senator from LD20 may have also been exposed to this vicious political virus.

Recall Virus-20 appears to spread quickly through highly emotional superspreaders that demonstrate disoriented, irrational and even rabid symptoms.

Republican elected officials are most at risk with voter signatures identified as the main agent attacking the elected official.

Sonoran Alliance has calculated risk levels and political survival rates for Republicans who may be attacked by the virus. Here are those numbers:

Karen Fann – 36,444 signatures
Sonny Borrelli – 22,077 signatures
Wendy Rogers – 30,803 signatures
TJ Shope – 21,651 signatures
Vince Leach – 33,346 signatures
Warren Petersen – 39,001 signatures
Sine Kerr – 23,397 signatures
David Gowan – 26,515 signatures
Nancy Barto – 23,148 signatures
Kelly Townsend – 24,510 signatures
JD Mesnard – 32,313 signatures
Paul Boyer – 25,199 signatures
Rick Gray – 18,966 signatures
David Livingston – 38,260 signatures
Michelle Ugenti-Rita – 37,952 signatures
Tyler Pace – 28,623 signatures

Arizona Senate Republicans should exercise extreme caution and avoid all contact with recall superspreaders in order to avoid being infected by the virus or becoming superspreaders themselves.

Democrat elected officials appear to be at very low risk to the Recall Virus-20.

Trump Lost. Get Over It!

Time to toss a grenade in the room.

This video is complete bullshit! This is nothing more than playing on people’s fears and anxiety by misleading them down a dead end of misinformation.

Scottsdale Studios put this together and I will find out who paid them. And if taxpayer dollars were used, a complaint will be filed.

I also challenge this amateur video crew to conduct the same interviews in downtown Tempe, downtown Phoenix or even downtown Gilbert.

The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors have done NOTHING wrong, unethical or illegal. They did their job.

If you really believe the election was stolen in Maricopa County, do you not think that the former Democrat County Recorder would have won along with two new progressive Democrat Supervisors so they could cover up the steal? If you recall, the first few days after the election, two Republican supervisors were losing. Even the new Republican County Recorder knows the election was not stolen!

The truth is that starting in 2018, Democrat activists outworked Republicans building a machine ready for 2020. They identified and registered thousands of new people and motivated them to vote against Trump.

Why was there no outcry after the 2018 General Election? Why was there no outcry after the 2020 Primary Election? Why now? Where were you people when we lost the US Senate seat in 2018 and 2020? Where were you people when we lost the Superintendent of Public Instruction, Secretary of State and Corporation Commission seats???

Where you lose all credibility – besides not being able to make a logical argument or provide evidence – is when you leave our other Republican candidates behind.

Your fatal flaw is you put all your faith in Donald Trump to be your savior while failing to fight for the other Republican candidates.

Trump lost in Maricopa County because there were more people who didn’t vote for him than did vote for him.

Your problem is not with the Board of Supervisors. It’s not with the new Republican Recorder. Your problem is with the people who got tired of Trump’s bullying, antics, drama, incompetence, tantrums, authoritarianism and performance. Your problem is with the 51,465 freedom-loving, anti-big government people who voted for the Libertarian candidate.

The election is over and sure, there will be an audit but that won’t be enough to break your cognitive dissonance that Trump actually did lose.

If Republicans don’t get focused and back on mission instead of living in the past, this state is going to turn deeper purple and then dark blue in 2022.

2020 AZ Primary Early Vote Wrap-Up

What happened and what it means for November

With the primary election tomorrow, we’re giving you our takeaways from the early vote data. There are still tens of thousands of ballots to be cast on Election Day, but the ballots mailed back thus far paint an interesting picture.

Here are the high-level highlights you need to know going into Tuesday:

  • 1,063,828 Ballots Cast
  • 2,316,329 Ballots Requested
  • 45.6% Return Rate
  • 26.7% Turnout
  • 0.9% Democrat Ballot Advantage (representing 9,900 ballots) 

Interesting takeaways: 

  1. Turnout is high: We have seen more overall ballots returned than ever before in a primary election – 1,063,828. As a comparison, we saw about 835,000 ballots returned in 2018 and 682,000 in 2016. While we don’t know yet if these are people who would usually drop their ballots off, we are on pace to hit at least 30% overall turnout.
  2. Democratic turnout is exceeding Republican turnout: While we don’t know how Election Day turnout will fare, we are on pace to see something that we haven’t seen in Arizona in at least the last two decades – more Democratic ballots cast than Republican ballots. There is some hope for Republicans, though, Democrats have 1.4% more of their ballots returned. That 1.4% represents about 15,000 Republican ballots.   
  3. More Independents have cast Democratic ballots than Republican: In Arizona, Independents can choose to vote in either party primary or cast a non-partisan ballot. This year, they have cast a total of 117,845 ballots and about 8,800 more in Democratic primaries than Republican. As a comparison, in the previous two cycles Independents have cast between 10,000 and 12,000 more ballots in Republican primaries than in the Democratic primaries.

While primary turnout does not specifically correlate to general election performance, Republicans need a big Election Day performance to mitigate some of these troubling numbers. Democrats have not traditionally had a lot of primary elections – which has driven down their turnout in the last two cycles – but high turnout this year is occurring in places with and without contested primaries on the Democratic side. 
We will have at least one additional update from Maricopa and Pima counties today that can be seen here. Stay tuned for a full debrief post-election to see if these trends from mailed early ballots held or if the trends simply represented Democratic voters mailing in versus dropping off on Election Day because of COVID concerns.

*Data is current as of 8/02/20 at 6:00pm*
Looking ahead to the General Election
 As mentioned before, we decided to share our entire primary ballot tracker with the public but will be providing general election early vote tracking via paid subscription only. We apologize for any confusion we may have caused in our previous email regarding the general election subscription model. We will continue to release basic, high level numbers publicly for the general election (total ballots and party breakdown, statewide only) but for those looking for greater detail and analysis, we will be offering two subscription levels.

Level One will provide full current year breakdowns similar to what is currently shown on our primary election tracker.

Level Two will have comparison data for the previous two cycles and will add in additional filtration features.

If you have any questions or would like to subscribe for the general election tracker, you can contact Data Orbital here

ABOUT DATA ORBITAL: 

Data Orbital is a full-service data solutions and survey research firm with local, state, and national experience.  We offer precise data solutions, informed by political and policy intelligence, so our clients can chart the right course through the corporate or political landscape ahead. 

How America Gets Its First Black Woman President

The real question is will she be a Republican or Democrat?

Time for a crazy political scenario. This spins off insider speculation that Trump will pull out of his re-election bid before he loses. It may sound far-fetched but we do live in crazy political times.

Trump is going to lose the 2020 election. He knows this and I believe the Republican Establishment knows it too. It’s inevitable and as many of us have been warning since 2015, the man has brought it on himself.

Trump is a quitter, especially when the going gets tough. And the tough is really going tough and tougher. Some Phoenicians remember when he pulled out of the development of a high rise in the Biltmore area. He knew when to cut his losses and move on. That’s what savvy business leaders do. He’s been that way his entire life. Bankruptcy after bankruptcy, change of plan after change of plan. He’s won some and he’s walked away. Running the country has become too much of a hassle for someone who has always sought leisure and pleasure and maybe it’s just not worth it to him anymore.

That’s just Trumps modus operandi and its how some deal-cutting New Yorker’s operate.

Right now the political heat has reached temperatures I think he’s no longer willing to tolerate.

At the same time, the GOP Establishment is worried, very worried. Arizona is likely to lose its other US Senate seat – the first time in decades Arizona may have two Democrats in the US Senate. Other Republican Senators across the country are panicking.

The “Trump Effect” we warned about flipped the House in 2018 and is about to flip many seats in the Senate. Arizona is on the verge of turning blue. We warned you.

So how do we get an African-American woman as our next President? Indulge me.

Knowing the election is going down, Trump and the Republican Establishment gather and conclude there’s only one way to possibly save the presidency – elevate Mike Pence through the resignation of Donald J. Trump. It’s all done quickly before most states issue early ballots – mid- September – leading to a real “October Surprise.”

Prior to the Trump exit, Biden picks his VP. He’s already announced it will be a woman of color and one of the names floated has been former Obama advisor and Ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice. It works for Biden because he already knows her well, she brings foreign policy experience to the ticket, can protect her former boss from Republican investigations and frankly, delivers on a promise.

Republicans in a free fall with Mike Pence at the top of the ticket, counter with a strategic move. They call up former Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, Condoleezza Rice. It’s one final push to hold the election and make a statement about the Republican party’s diversity.

Biden has Susan Rice, Pence has Condoleezza Rice. Coincidence?

On to Election Day and the answer of whether the first African-American woman President will be a Republican or Democrat. I don’t know.

In the first scenario, Mike Pence holds the presidency, barely. Americans were tired of all the Trump drama but were also willing to forgive Pence for his guilt by association.

Unfortunately, the US Congress doesn’t hold the same sentiment.

The Senate, now flipped, has the numbers to convict a sitting Republican President. The US House, even more democratic, impeaches Pence on the impeachable offense du jour. The vote heads to the Senate and this time, Democrats are successful in convicting the nicest man to ever become President. Vice President Condoleezza Rice becomes the first Republican African-American woman President.

The second scenario unfolds with the election of Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States. There’s only one problem and everyone knows it. Joe Biden’s mental capacity is waning. Republican leadership in the House and Senate calls for the removal or resignation of the President. Welcome to the 2020’s where impeachment is now weaponized. The hesitation by the American people in electing Biden in the first place becomes a reality and the calls for resignation grow louder. Democrats quietly push for his exit to save the party embarrassment but mainly to elevate the first woman of color into the White House. Susan Rice becomes the first Democrat African-American woman President

The beautiful irony in all this is that the two old white guys – who many were asking, “is this the best we have?” – have now been displaced and replaced by individuals who reflect the times and turmoils of where the country appears to be headed.

Too far fetched or is political truth stranger than fiction these days?

Senator Martha McSally explains Mark Kelly’s intimate relationship with China

Republican Martha McSally appeared on the Hugh Hewitt show earlier this week to discuss her race for the US Senate.

In the interview she discusses fundraising, national security and her opponents intimate entanglements with the Chinese government.

Here’s the video of the interview:

In the Primary race for Republican, Sonoran Alliance endorses Martha McSally.

My Final Rebuttal – Guest Opinion

By L. Burke Files

To Sylvia Allen, Gary Morris, Peter Aleshire, and the AZ Republican Party;

In my opinion, the three of you and the party are a great disappointment.   No, you will listen, you immediately decry this “attack” as a Rogers person, and you would be correct. I am a 20-year friend of Wendy and Hal. I get it. I, however, am sharing my view and background in advance. It is a technique in argumentation called authenticity, something you have forgotten.

Senator Sylvia Allen, you were once the fresh face of the rural independent spirit.  Your gaffs about ethnicity and sexual orientation are hurtful, but expected.  You have not traveled, and you have not seen how the citizens of the world view American. America is Eldorado. We are the famed city of gold on the hill. They want to be here; they want to become Americans. My grandfather was an immigrant, and he well remembered his reception in Chicago when he went looking for work. Little signs in the window said NINA. It meant No Irish Need Apply. He was at first angry, but soon realized the country was so rich the NINA businesses did not need his money.  Your time has passed, you have forgotten the golden rule  “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.”  Republicans are the party of Lincoln, not Wilson. To me you now more or less resemble Norma Desmond looking for your last close-up. You could have gone out on top. Now you will just go.

Gary Morris, Gila County Republican Precinct Chair, you are the epitome of what the party has become. The AZ Republican Party has become a sclerotic assemblage of the status quo.  In this tyranny, there is enormous inertia, so much so only a crisis real or imagined will produce real change.  If you can open your eyes, you will see the crises, it will be in November, and you and others like you are the authors of the tragedy. Your role was to advocate for who the party members chose, Gary – it’s not your choice. It is the choice of the voters. Your tireless advocacy for Allen has removed you from the party Chair to become the foppish incumbent cheerleader. 

Peter Aleshire, you disgust me.  I am a huge proponent of the First Amendment and especially investigative journalism. The third estate is what keeps democracy between the lines. My advocacy for the First Amendment is not virtue signaling, I have, as a financial investigator, supported the work of the ICIJ and OCCRP in their worldwide efforts to combat fraud and corruption.  Don’t buy it? Try searching my name. I have little hope you’ll get that right, as you certainly were unable to Google or check the facts in the campaign. Your posting of manufactured articles only to take them down and allow them to be used by Sylvia Allen and Gary Morris is a fraud upon journalism.  You could have sponsored a debate between the two candidates, but no. You have betrayed the truth, you have betrayed the hope of finding the truth, and your actions are the ultimate betrayal of those whom you serve, your readers. 

As for the Arizona Republican Party, you are tone-deaf, economic, and legislative morons. When I see a debate and the talking lines are who are more loyal to the party, it echoes a bad movie scene where the prisoner clerks in a gulag are debating who is more loyal so they can get an extra ration of gruel.

After this election cycle, this Republican of 40 years will drop his registration to become an independent.

This is my opinion, so be it.

L. Burke Files
Financial Examinations & Evaluations, Inc.

Jeremy Whittaker Liberal Democrat or Opportunist?

Jeremy Whittaker’s Voting Record:

In 2006 he voted in the Democrat Primary Election!

In 2008 he voted in the Democrat Primary Election!

IN 2016 he voted in the Democrat Primary Election!

As a registered Democrat in 2016, he voted in the Democrat Presidential election. Yes, the election where he chose either Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton!

Then, he decided to run for Mesa City Council in a predominantly Republican district.  So in April 2016 he re-registered as an independent.  Was that real or for show?  Well, let’s see: in 2018 while on City Council he requested a Democrat primary ballot and voted in the Democratic Primary Election.  He’s also a fixture in the LD25 Democrat District meeting scene. A lot of people in Mesa are genuinely confused about who to vote for in the City Council race coming up in Mesa. Jeremy Whittaker is an incumbent running for re-election, and some conservatives are supporting him because of his stated efforts to lower utility fees and his failed opposition to the City’s deal with ASU in downtown Mesa. Many conservatives are supporting Republican small business owner and mom, Julie Spilsbury. Conservatives should beware of Whittaker. Facts don’t lie and the public record has shown that Whittaker has contemplated instituting a primary property tax; he has never voted in a single Republican primary, and has voted in nearly every Democrat primary; and was a registered Democrat until recently. Even as a registered Independent, he STILL REQUESTS AND VOTES A DEMOCRAT BALLOT.

First, Whittaker’s opposition of utility fees to fund public safety was offset by his idea of instituting a property tax for Mesa voters.  He never tells voters that side of the story. In one city council meeting you can see the exchange between GIles and Whittaker as a frustrated Giles lets Whittaker know that his property tax idea is a failed one. Mesa Voters rejected a primary property tax two decades ago, and polling continues to show that Mesa voters don’t want primary property taxes, aka renting your property back from the government under threat of confiscation.  Voters in Mesa also don’t want to “defund the police” by literally cutting their funding, which is what Whittaker’s utility scheme amounts to.

Second, Whittaker has made opposition to ASU a central plank in his efforts to convince conservatives he is one of them, referring to a failed ballot initiative in 2016 for the deal. What Whittaker hasn’t told the voters is that he has supported the wrong kind of taxpayer subsidized development in downtown. Whittaker is a supporter of subsidized low income housing in downtown Mesa, risking the creation of conditions of dense poverty that crushes local schools, churches, and neighborhoods. He has voted for numerous projects along the lightrail and downtown to pack downtown with government supported housing, sometimes voting to give away city owned property at a fraction of its value to support the projects. Even the liberal Atlantic has said what a failed experiment dense public housing for the poor is.  While Phoenix and Tempe have renewed their city cores, Whittaker has been all about creating concentrated poverty in downtown Mesa.

While we know Whittaker is liberal and claims to care about the poor, but the data says that helping the poor come out of poverty requires them to be in balanced communities. Packing poor people together in older areas and public funded apartments increases stress on neighborhoods, keeps poor people in the cycle of poverty, and creates eventual social problems. Mayor Giles and the Council know the importance of having educational and economic opportunities in downtown to add needed balance to the economic mix of downtown. They found another way to finance the ASU project without raising taxes by using opportunity funds, some of which are paid for by developments being built near ASU spurred because ASU is there. Whittaker’s advocacy for government housing and opposition to true economic balance should be noted by conservative voters. 

Lastly, how one votes is secret in America. If someone votes, their party registration, and the ballots they requested is a matter of public record. Here is what the record shows about Jeremy Whittaker. 

Gila County GOP Chairman Gary Morris Should Be Fired

Guest Opinion by RC Montana

It was such sloppy “journalism” if you can even call it journalism. The Payson Roundup briefly posted a story on July 22, 2020 titled “Republicans Launch a Rare Attack on a Candidate [Wendy Rogers] in their Own Primary“. The thing is though, the Payson Roundup took the article down after 12 hours because they likely suffered blowback, much as they did in June 2020 when they had to take down another flimsy article about Rogers due to several of the people, who the paper had claimed supposedly endorsed Rogers, said they had not.

The Roundup didn’t print that June story, because Rogers’ campaign never claimed those endorsements in 2020. Imagine that.

But this time, their second try at baseless flimsy “journalism” was predicated on Gila County GOP Chairman Gary Morris’s unsubstantiated claims about Rogers, which were mass-emailed – completely un-fact-checked – to all Gila county precinct committeemen. How’s that for staying publicly neutral in a primary? 

Then the Payson Roundup reporter breathlessly gobbled up Gary Morris’s rant even though uncorroborated. Chairman Morris’s mass email was a smear job packed with unsupported statements very much like the Steele Dossier on Trump.

The Payson Roundup’s Peter Aleshire was given a chance not to publish it, but he did. How did Peter Aleshire even justify it, since he’d had to take his previous, similarly inaccurate article down a month earlier? 

PETER ALESHIRE’S ARTICLE HAS NONETHELESS BEEN ARCHIVED AND IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST!   

So now you’re caught up to date. Here is my take on the lackey, Gila County GOP Chairman Gary Morris, who violated every rule of civility and decorum as a county chairman. He caved to the establishment GOP. He is a reprobate for peddling lies he should’ve fact-checked first. He was warned, yet mass-emailed out misinformation anyway, violating sacred tenets of basic leadership. The Gila County Republican Committee should fire him. 

Mr. Morris wonders who Wendy Rogers will be “beholden to?” Is he kidding? Wendy Rogers has not taken one penny from a PAC or a lobbyist. On the other hand, Rogers’s opponent Sylvia Allen is almost entirely funded by special interests.

Gary Morris continues to perpetuate the lie about Rogers’ residency even though the AZ Secretary of State wrote unequivocally that Rogers is from Flagstaff. To whom are you beholden Chairman Morris? 

How can this chairman, in his right mind, suggest that Rogers would be “weak” going into the general election campaign? She has fundraised more than any other state candidate in Arizona.

Gary Morris and the GOP establishment are scared to death of Rogers because they can’t control her. They know she won’t permit a Red-Flag bill or that idiotic National Popular Vote to get past her.

Here’s what they really can’t stand: Wendy has outworked and out-campaigned a rusty fixture in the state legislature – Sylvia Allen – who has been there far too long, and thus has completely sold out and caved to special interests.

Gary Morris’s time could be better spent by learning how NOT to get lost in the woods. Fire him!

Rep Bob Thorpe Deserves Better

The Republican Primary in Arizona’s LD-6 Senate race has taken some unconventional twists and turns. Turns, because State Senator Sylvia Allen, drawn to spend more time with her children and family in Snowflake, decided not to seek re-election earlier this year but then suddenly changed her mind, some say not by choice and under a lot of pressure by operatives. Twists, because GOP “leaders” and self-appointed kingmakers in the district are rumored to have issued primary support and endorsements to keep Allen in the race.

In the House, Representative Bob Thorpe is term-limited and planning to seek the Senate nomination and seat in 2020. The primary was already set between Thorpe and Lt. Col. Wendy Rogers until Allen did an about-face.

State Representative Bob Thorpe

According to reliable sources, Republican donors and activists met in Payson on June 15th behind closed doors where they decided to intervene in the primary against all Republican standards and practices. During the meeting led by Sedona Republicans Dwight and Andrea Kadar, Thorpe was asked to leave the room while Allen remained. Under tremendous pressure, Allen was told to get back in the race as she fought back tears.

What emerged was an endorsement of Sylvia Allen; a dictate not to support Thorpe through money and manpower; and likely, State Senate and House leadership support to help Allen win the primary (probably through a rare employed primary PAC committee). Thorpe’s political consultant even bailed on him and is probably expected to run (and benefit) from the leadership PAC against Thorpe.

Apparently, party leaders are trying to clear the field for Sylvia Allen in order to make it easier for her to keep the seat.

State Senator Sylvia Allen (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

What is ironic in all this is Sylvia Allen (who this blog is actually a fan of) and her promoters should remember how party leadership treated her back in 2010 when a handful of Eastern Arizona “kingmakers” tried to run her out of the Republican Primary in LD-5. At the time, Allen who had replaced the late Jake Flake and won the seat in 2008, was challenged by Bill Konopnicki. Party leadership wanted Allen out and Konopnicki in but the voters saw things differently. After her two-year term, Allen returned to local government as a county supervisor while rancher Chester Crandell ran and won the seat in 2012.

In August, 2014, State Senator Chester Crandell died suddenly in a horseback riding incident. Allen was chosen to replace Crandell on the ballot where she was once again elected to the Arizona State Senate.

But this post is not about Sylvia. It’s about Bob Thorpe and how he has every right to run for the seat without party leadership’s heavy-handedness. And while this blog has been critical of Thorpe’s legislation, the self-appointed LD-6 political kingmakers should back off, stop pressuring Sylvia to stick around and to let the race play out. Bob Thorpe deserves better and a shot at the nomination. We hope he stays in the race.