Wendy Rogers: Send Walt Blackman to the State House

Rarely do I get the opportunity to recommend a fellow retired career military veteran to the Arizona state legislature. Retired Army First Sergeant Walter Blackman served our nation on active duty for 23 years with distinction. I am honored to support this America-loving solid conservative to help him serve his nation again.

My husband and I have come to know Walt closely. His combat experience and leadership of tank troops places him in a class of his own. One thing about tankers, when they get the mission, they finish it with lightning speed.  Walt Blackman led troops of more than 150 soldiers in life and death situations.

I know Walt and his family personally and can testify they are the real deal. Walt listens to the concerns of voters and provides conservative solutions, not government solutions. I’m confident that Walt Blackman will stand up for every person in Arizona, because he knows what it looks like when governments go too far. He saw it in his seven deployments to Iraq, Kosovo, and Afghanistan. Walt truly believes what makes the United States exceptional is our reverence for the Constitution and its importance as the foundational pillar of this great republic. And along with that, he profoundly respects the rights of individual freedom and personal responsibility. He’s not afraid to be held accountable, which is a rare quality these days.

Walt will ardently defend Pro-Life policies at every level and unceasingly strive to protect those who are least able to protect themselves, the unborn. And if you care about your 2nd Amendment rights, you will see Walt Blackman take point and lead to protect our gun rights.

Please vote for retired First Sergeant Walt Blackman. And instead of casting two possible votes for State House, please cast just one vote for Blackman. That way, he gets more votes to win it.

Wendy Rogers, Lt Col, USAF (ret)
Republican candidate
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District

Meet Commissioner Justin Olson

Last October, Governor Doug Ducey appointed Justin Olson to the Arizona Corporation Commission in confidence that he would serve with ethics and integrity.

Since his appointment, Olson has enacted rate reductions that have lowered our electric bills. He has a long history in Arizona and really cares about serving ratepayers. He’s passionate about tax policy and is already bringing the kind of tax savings home to us.

Justin Olson is able to do this because he brings experience and expertise that the commission has never had before. He earned an MBA from ASU and understands business and finance. Olson also served in the Arizona Legislature where he worked to balance the budget without increasing debt, using gimmicks or raising our taxes.

Justin Olson is a true conservative who is looking out for Arizonans. After viewing this video you will see why he is the real deal and is acting in our best interests. Olson represents us and is sincerely looking out for Arizona ratepayers.

If you’d like to learn more about Commissioner Olson, check out his website at votejustinolson.com

POLL: Arpaio Shakes Up AZ Senate Race

McSally leapfrogs Ward for the lead, Arpaio close second

Steve Bannon’s endorsement is the kiss of death for Kelli Ward

PHOENIX (January 10, 2018) – What happens when America’s former Toughest Sheriff joins the fray for a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona? The race for the GOP nomination gets thrown into disarray.

A new poll conducted of 504 registered voters was conducted Tuesday by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) shows U.S. Rep Martha McSally of Tucson is the new leader with 31 percent support. Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who announced this week his intention to seek the nomination, follows closely at 29 percent. Former State Sen. Kelli Ward now trails with 25 percent.

Arizona’s OH Predictive Insights and ABC15-Phoenix (OHPI/ABC-PHOENIX) teamed up to find out how the entrance of Arpaio changes the dynamics of the Senate election contest.

OHPI conducted an IVR survey of 504 likely 2018 GOP Primary Election voters comprised of Republicans, Independents and Party Non-Declared statewide here in Arizona. The sample is based on voter history and qualified as a likely voter for the 2018 GOP Primary Election in this survey with a +/-4.36% margin of error.

“Sheriff Joe makes a splash wherever he goes and his surprise entrance into the U.S. Senate race shines a new light on this important race to succeed Sen. Jeff Flake,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company.. “Everyone knows Joe. He has near-unanimous name recognition. But it doesn’t mean he is universally loved. It will be a challenge convincing voters he’s a new Joe.”

We first looked at where the candidates stack up in regards to their name ID, fav/unfav and net positive numbers.

U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, of Tucson, leads the pack, however, all three are within the margin of error. She also is the least damaged of the group given she only has a 17% total unfavorable number, although, a third of voters don’t know who she is. Arpaio clocked in at an astounding 97% name ID and by almost a 2-1 margin he holds a positive view from likely GOP primary voters. A key indicator of a winning a campaign is not just being known, but being known AND liked so we ranked the list by the people with the highest net favorable name identification to lowest positive name ID.

 

Now, let’s see how everyone stacks up in the horse race question if the election were held today.

Back in November, OH Predictive Insights polled the horse race with just McSally and Ward.  Ward was in first place with 42% and McSally trailed by 8 points at 34% with 24% undecided. With Arpaio entering the race McSally goes from second to first and Ward goes from first to last place with only 15% of voters remaining undecided.

Where did the votes go? McSally only dropped 3 points from the previous poll, which is within the margin of error. Arpaio’s entrance did not affect her. Ward on the other hand lost 17 points, which migrated over to Arpaio. Arpaio also pulled 9points of the undecideds off the board, which now leaves just 15% of voter’s undecided in this contest.

Now, we will take a look at how a Trump, Bannon or McConnell endorsement would impact GOP voters for this race.

A Trump endorsement makes a huge difference, with 73% of voters saying his endorsement is a significant influencer in their decision. And by more than 2-1, Trump moved voters in a positive direction. McConnell only moves 57% although in the wrong direction by 8 points.  Steve Bannon’s endorsement on the other hand moves 70% of voters and that direction is straight into the ground.

 

Finally, we wanted to try the horse race question again, but this time inject the primary backers of each candidate. Ward has been endorsed by Bannon.  Trump pardoned Arpaio and he was his first major endorsement in the GOP presidential primary. McSally is one of Mitch McConnell’s top recruits for Senate.

“Joe Arpaio’s decision to enter the senate race spells doom for the wobbly Ward campaign,” Noble said. “Ward’s support seemed to be a half mile wide and just a half inch deep. One day of Joe Arpaio in the race ruins more than a year of work Ward has done to capture the GOP nomination. Martha McSally and Joe Arpaio are headed for a Tombstone-style showdown in August with the winner having to take on a rested and loaded for bear Kyrsten Sinema.”

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on January 9th, 2018, from a likely 2018 GOP Primary Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, geographic location, and gender, however, age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to the survey medium. The margin of error is of ± 4.36%.  Note: Average age of those who voted a Republican ballot in the 2014 election in Arizona was 65.

Maricopa County GOP Chair Congratulates New AZGOP Executive Team

Chris HerringI join in with Govenor Ducey and Republican’s around the state in congratulating the new AZGOP executive team of Matthew Kenney and Torunn Sinclair.  We have the important task of ensuring Arizona remains a bastion of conservatism in 2018 and that we do all we can to help get Republicans elected. I know the new team shares this singular focus.

When seeking the office of Chairman of the Maricopa County Republican Party I made a commitment to end factional fighting between the county and state party, as far as it was in my power to do so. I believe this new team understands the importance of working hand in hand as one Republican Party.

I look forward to working with the new team to build a stronger party, and to ensure that all of our candidates in Maricopa County are given the tools they need to run successful campaigns, that all of our precinct committeemen are fully equipped to work for candidates of their choice, and that we ensure a path to victory for all Republicans in the general election.

Chairman Herring
Maricopa County Republicans

 

House Ed Chair Paul Boyer, Rep. Drew John Endorse Tracy Livingston for Superintendent

Phoenix, AZ – Two more members of the Arizona House of Representatives, House Education Committee Chairman Paul Boyer (R-LD20) and Representative Drew John (R-LD14) today announced their support for Tracy Livingston as the  next Superintendent of Public Instruction.

“As Chairman of the House Education Committee, I am responsible for advancing policies that will strengthen every classroom in Arizona,” said Rep. Boyer. “As a teacher, I am responsible for the best interests of my classroom full of kids. Because I have to approach education from both perspectives, I am very encouraged by what I’ve seen and heard from Tracy Livingston. I’m supporting Tracy for Superintendent of Public Instruction because we need someone who understands the impact education policies have on kids, on teachers, and our classrooms. Tracy will fight to end Common Core and will champion giving parent’s choices and control over their kids’ education.”

Echoing the sentiments of his colleague, Rep. John had this to say: “Improving Arizona’s schools will require more than just good policies. We are going to need dedicated teachers who love their kids and what they do. And what better place to put just such a teacher than into the office of State Superintendent. That’s why I’m endorsing Tracy Livingston and why I hope you will support her.”

While 13 states currently elect their Superintendent, none of those elected in recent years appear to have spent the majority – or even a significant portion – of their careers in the classroom. Unlike them, Tracy Livingston has spent her entire career teaching kids and understands the needs of students, parents and teachers alike.

“The non-traditional student of 20 years ago is now the norm,” Mrs. Livingston noted, “and teachers are having to adapt, but school policy and administration isn’t keeping up. Teachers are facing a greater burden today than ever before, yet the enormous run-up in educational spending over these last few decades hasn’t reached the classroom. As a classroom teacher, I know we can do better – and I know what we need to do to make it happen. It’s time for a teacher to lead.”

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Mrs. Livingston is a graduate of Arizona State University with a Bachelors in Broadcasting from the Walter Cronkite School, and a Masters of Education. First elected in 2014, Tracy is a member and former President of the Maricopa Community College Governing Board. Before that, she served two years on the Peoria Unified School Board. Tracy has also served as an elected Republican Precinct Committeeman in Legislative District 22 since 2011.

Tracy and her husband, David, have one son, Kyle, who is an EMT in Prescott, Arizona. David Livingston is a member of the Arizona House of Representatives. The family currently lives in Peoria with their two rescue Siberian Huskies, Katie and Spencer.

Representative-elect David Stringer endorses Chris Herring for MCRC Chairman

Chris Herring

SURPRISE, ARIZ (December 29) – Today, Representative-elect David Stringer (LD 1) endorsed Chris Herring for Maricopa County Republican Committee Chairman. LD 1 covers parts of northern Maricopa County.

“Chris Herring fights to expand liberty and to reduce government – not just in Maricopa County, but across the state,” Stringer said. “He believes in local control, less government, and the importance of adherence to the Constitution as it was written. Bold, young conservatives are the future of our party, and Chris has my support to be the next chairman of Maricopa County.”

“Representative-elect Stringer has already proven to be a strong friend to grassroots Republicans in his district,” Herring said. “I look forward to supporting his work in the Arizona House of Representatives and to working with him to elect and empower conservative Republicans in Maricopa County.”

Representative-elect David Stringer joins U.S. Congressman Trent Franks, Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Diane Douglas, Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery, Senator Debbie Lesko, Senator Judy Burges, Senator-elect Steve Montenegro, Representative Jill Norgaard, Representative Anthony Kern, Representative David Livingston, Representative Phil Lovas, Representative Justin Olson, and Phoenix City Councilman Jim Waring in endorsing Chris Herring for MCRC Chairman.

Jim O’Connor’s Leadership Raises AZGOP Questions

Interesting information regarding the role of Republican LD-23 in the 2016 Primary Election. Under the direct leadership of Chairman Jim O’Connor, LD-23 endorsed Republican Primary candidates like Alex Meluskey – not illegal but certainly out of character and spirit with Republican primary election principles.

In this message, retrieved from an August memo to precinct committeemen, Chairman Jim O’Connor acknowledges the endorsement of Alex Meluskey in the Republican US Senate Primary. (The memo attempts to address how LD-23 PC’s should respond to Meluskey’s dropping out of the race.)

LD23 Memo to PC'sThis has particularly impact for the Arizona Republican Chairman’s race as it demonstrates Chairman O’Connor’s potential influence and leadership should he be elected to the post. Would a Chairman O’Connor lead an effort to endorse another Senate run by Alex Meluskey or perhaps Dr. Kelli Ward over sitting US Senator Jeff Flake? Would Chairman O’Connor push for the election of a primary challenger against Governor Doug Ducey? His prior record of intervention and leadership raises serious questions and concerns over how he would lead the Arizona GOP over the next two years.

The 2018 mid-term election will be critical for statewide and congressional races. The party must have the most objective even-handed Chairman at its helm.

Representative Justin Olson endorses Chris Herring for MCRC Chairman

Chris Herring

SURPRISE, AZ – (December 20) – Today, Representative Justin Olson (LD 25) endorsed Chris Herring for Maricopa County Republican Committee Chairman.

“Chris is a strong conservative, and a capable leader for Maricopa County,”Olson said. “As a champion of smaller government and reducing taxes, I know I have an ally in Chris. He understands the Republican principles of small government and states’ rights, and he will fight for the Republican Party platform.”Justin Olson
“I am thankful for Representative Olson’s endorsement,” Herring said. “My candidacy for MCRC Chairman is attracting the support of elected officials and conservative leaders from all around the county, and I look forward to serving them and our hard-working grassroots members should I be elected chairman.”

Representative Justin Olson joins U.S. Congressman Trent Franks, Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery, Senator Debbie Lesko, Senator Judy Burges, Senator-elect Steve Montenegro, Representative Jill Norgaard, Representative Anthony Kern, Representative David Livingston, Representative Phil Lovas, and Phoenix City Councilman Jim Waring in endorsing Chris Herring for MCRC Chairman.

Arizona LD-22 Legislators Endorse Chris Herring for Maricopa County GOP Chairman

Chris Herring

SURPRISE, ARIZ (December 15) – Today, three legislators from Legislative District 22 – Senator Judy Burges, Representative David Livingston, and Representative Phil Lovas – endorsed Chris Herring for MCRC Chairman. The LD 22 legislative team hails from the heart of CD 8, and have done great work to advance conservative values and principles across Arizona while holding their elected offices.

“Chris Herring is a remarkable young man who possesses deeply-rooted, pro-family values, sees the Constitution as the foundation on which our country has remained free, and desires to join President Donald Trump in ‘Making America Great Again,'” Burges said. “Our Republican values need to breathe new life into our state and nation. Won’t you join me in supporting Chris Herring for MCRC Chairman?”

“I’m supporting Chris Herring for MCRC Chair, and I’m asking that you would, too,” Livingston said.”Chris Herring was an exceptional chair of LD 21, which borders my district; and he was always a friend and ally of conservative legislators. Chris Herring knows what it takes to win elections, and I am confident that he will help to unify our party and help us to adhere to our platform as well.”

“I am very supportive of Chris Herring for MCRC Chairman and Aaron Flannery for 1st Vice Chairman,”Lovas said. “Chris worked very hard to turn out votes in his district and throughout the county for the entire Republican ticket in 2016 and Aaron ran a strong campaign for recorder.  To win elections, we need a chairman committed to working with grassroots Republicans and raising money to help the entire ticket.  Please join me in supporting Chris and Aaron.”

“I have been very fortunate to have built such strong relationships with many conservative members of our Arizona legislators – our LD 22 team being no exception,” Herring said. These three elected officials don’t just talk the talk, but they walk the walk each and every day. LD 22 is in a great position with Senator Burges, Representative Livingston, and Representative Lovas leading the way, and I look forward to working with them to help elect Maricopa County Republicans should I be elected as the MCRC chairman.”

Senator Judy Burges, Representative David Livingston, and Representative Phil Lovas join U.S. Congressman Trent Franks, Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery, Senator Debbie Lesko, Senator-elect Steve Montenegro, Representative Jill Norgaard, Representative Anthony Kern, and Phoenix City Councilman Jim Waring in endorsing Chris Herring for MCRC Chairman.

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Chris Herring is a lifelong Republican, who first registered to vote as a teenager in Los Angeles County. As a Valley resident for the past eight years, Chris loves living in a state where conservative principles are fought for on a daily basis. Chris earned a bachelors degree in history and a graduate degree in business management, two disciplines he believes will contribute to his ability to make the county party a more effective organization. Chris looks forward to working with our conservative grassroots committeemen across Maricopa County. He lives in Surprise with his wife and son.

I Was Wrong About The Election Of Donald Trump

Trump Victory

First, I must say I am very relieved that Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton. There certainly is a delicious pleasure in that victory.

Now, let me get the mea culpa out of the way.

Like many of my colleagues in the professional political consulting class, I was wrong about the election of Donald Trump.

Nearly every polls showed him losing – the pollsters were wrong.

Every time Donald Trump spoke, he polarized and divided groups of individuals. The public relations professionals were wrong.

Nearly every longtime Republican and conservative leader said he couldn’t win using his strategy. They were wrong.

I repeatedly said he needed to learn from the lessons of 2012 when it comes to millennials, women and minority groups and affirm their libertarian and conservative values. The leader of the Grand Old Party needs to pursue a mathematical strategy of addition and multiplication rather than subtraction and division if they want to grow the party. Apparently, there was some “new math” at work in this election.

During the last days of the election, I believed it came down which demographic groups would turn out for Donald Trump. Would women, Latinos and millennials overcome the intensity of angry, aging, white, blue-collar Americans? Donald Trump obviously heard the voices of the latter and hit a nerve.

Donald Trump managed to pull off one of the biggest political shocks in American electoral history and we, the political consulting class were wrong.

But while we may remain wrong on why Donald Trump got elected as our 45th President, we may very well be right about our earlier concerns.

Donald Trump has “caught the bus” and must now grasp the sobering reality of governance.

He must now surround himself with individuals who will help him with the gargantuan task of running the country. Those individuals will most likely come from the establishment. Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Jeff Sessions, Chris Christie – all longtime Washington insiders and dare I note, members of the very “Establishment” class Donald Trump publicly excoriated. Will Trump’s die-hard supporters give him a pass over these selections? (Queue up “You Can’t Always Get What You Want.)

There are also the thousands of executive staff Trump will need to replace. Will he pull from the thousands of individuals with Washington experience who work as lobbyists, hill staffers and interest groups to fill those positions? Or will he bring in new blood from the heartland? I believe the former. Do you see where I’m going with this?

If President Trump truly wants to be successful, he needs experienced talent and there’s really only one pool to pull talented individuals – the establishment.

Candidate Donald Trump promised an agenda to make America great again during the campaign. Can President Donald Trump deliver on those promises? I believe he’s going to find it harder than he expected.

Do we really believe President Trump will be able to build an impenetrable wall along the southern border and make Mexico pay for it? Will President Trump sign an executive order banning all Muslims from entering the country? Can we expect President Trump to tear up NAFTA in one swift move?

His establishment cabinet and advisers are about to tell him just how hard governing really is.

The reality is President Trump has nothing to fear from the political left. He’s survived that battle and won. The real threat to a Trump administration is from those who wanted to burn Washington down. We’re about to find out how assimilated Donald Trump will become to the swamp he wants to drain.

Ted Cruz may prove right about Donald Trump’s northeastern values and mid-westerners may not be happy.

There is much to be hopeful and excited about however.

Republicans now control Washington, DC. Let me say that again. Republicans now control the Executive and Legislative branches of government. This is huge!

President Trump and the Republican Congress have a critical time frame to accomplish as much as possible and that starts with securing as much of the Judicial branch of government as possible.

The first 100 days of a Trump Administration means cleaning up the mess from the last eight and even 16 years. The Republican congress finally has a President who will not veto a repeal of the Affordable Care Act. They need to drop that bill on Day 1.

President Trump has other monumental tasks that he can single-handily accomplish: rescinding the hundreds of executive orders of Barack Obama; tearing up the Iran Deal; changing leadership and overhauling the VA; reigning in the powers of the many regulatory agencies, and restoring morale among the men and women of our military branches. It’s a lot to do and he should not meet any resistance from a Republican Congress. In this area, he not only needs to be assertive. President Trump needs to be aggressive.

Getting the “relatively easy” tasks done quickly will allow President Trump to focus on his more long-term and ongoing agenda such as restoring the courts; protecting religious freedom; repealing Dodd-Frank; reorienting energy policy; rebuilding the military; reforming immigration; improving national infrastructure and improving international trade relations.

Finally, President Trump needs to avoid picking fights with Congress over politics. There is no time to waste on grudges or personality conflicts. The American people want major action and no drama. These types of antics will only send the GOP down a box canyon where they will be massacred in the 2018 mid-term elections.

While I was wrong about the election of Donald Trump, I hope I’m not wrong about President Trump. Like many movement conservatives, I will remain steadfast on principles and policy and speak up when I believe his administration is wrong.

Donald Trump deserves our congratulations, prayers and well-wishes. He has been chosen to carry out the single-most powerful job in the world and we must support him as the leader of the free world.

Congratulations President-Elect Donald Trump.