Political Ad: Moses Sanchez for Phoenix Mayor Changing The Status Quo

Moses Sanchez

If you haven’t been paying attention to Phoenix politics, you should know there’s a conservative Republican running for the office of Mayor of the 5th largest US city.

Moses Sanchez launched his campaign for Mayor of Phoenix on January 16th with the theme of changing the status quo by challenging the two incumbent Democrats seeking the seat when Greg Stanton resigns to run for Congress.

An Ahwatukee resident, Sanchez migrated to the US with his family from the Republic of Panama when he was a child. He is an active reservist with the United States Navy having served for 21 years including a tour of Afghanistan.

Sanchez possesses both a B.S. in Business Management and an MBA. He is Director of Operations for Nonnah’s Marketing an Arizona-based digital marketing company that assists local businesses in their growth strategy through targeted digital media campaigns.

Previously, he was elected and served on the Tempe Union High School Governing Board. Over the last ten years, he has also taught economics in the Maricopa County Community College District at South Mountain Community College.

Moses and his wife, Maria Manriquez M.D., have three adult children and three grandchildren. All three children graduated from Desert Vista High School and continued their education at Arizona State University.

On January 29th, the Sanchez campaign released its first political ad entitled, “Changing The Status Quo.” The ad is available here.

Follow Moses Sanchez on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for campaign news and events.

 

POLL: AZ-08 GOP Special Election Now a Two-Person Race as Early Voting Begins

 

OH Predictive

Lesko and Montenegro tied, Stump falls to 4th

PHOENIX (February 1, 2018) – A new poll of the heavily GOP Congressional District 8 shows it is a two-candidate race between Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro.

The two leaders are tied with 21 percent apiece in the latest OH Predictive Insights poll conducted via IVR survey of 400 likely 2018 GOP Special Election voters comprised of Republicans, Independents and Party Non-Declared in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. Sample is based on voter history and qualified as a likely voter for the GOP Special Election in this survey with a +/-4.89% MOE.

Phil Lovas is now in third place with 12 percent. And Bob Stump, the former front runner, has dropped to fourth as he has taken hits from his opponents and the media about whether he is taking advantage of his name change to that of a former congressman in the West Valley.

“Former state senators Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro are the clear front runners in the GOP primary,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “Lesko has the highest favorables at 54 percent amidst her campaign’s decision to begin TV ads on Fox News. Montenegro has gained 20 points from early December after garnering endorsements from Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Senator Ted Cruz.”

Here is how everyone stacks up in the horse race question if the election were held today.

“There is a large field of candidates however it is now a two-person race between Lesko and Montenegro – may the best man or woman win,” said Noble.

Here is how the top candidates stack up and the changes since our last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017.

A key indicator of a winning a campaign is not just being known, but being known AND liked so OHPI ranked the list by the people with the highest net favorable name identification to lowest positive name ID.

Bob Stump’s unfavorable numbers jumped 17 points since the last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017 due to the recent controversy over his name.
Here is the State of the Race in AZ-08 summarized in 40 Seconds

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on February 1st, 2018, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

The previous poll was an automated survey which was completed by OH Predictive Insights on December 11th, 2017, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

AZRA Faction Power Grab Fails Spectacularly

By Calamity June

Gabriela Saucedo Mercer

Gabriela Saucedo Mercer

Saturday morning at the Arizona GOP, the usual divisive suspects made a last-gasp effort to remove from office a popular and successful AZ GOP Chairman. This is but one of a long line of failures that a diminishing faction has attempted.

This is the same group that spearheaded the failed recall effort of chairman Lines last summer, which was the same group that unsuccessfully supported Jim O’Connor a year ago when he ran against Lines for GOP Chairman. The same group that pushes its false narratives on the pages of Frosty’s Fake News and the fever swamp blogs that she promotes.

Haters gonna hate. Losers gonna lose.

Prior to this failed attempt, State Committee members were treated to yet another temper tantrum from GOP Secretary and two-time losing candidate Gabby Mercer (starting to see a pattern here?) Mercer repeated her oft-told lie about access to records, threw invective at the Chairman and Executive Director. As has been demonstrated time and again, the responsibility to obtain the AZGOP permanent records lies with the Secretary. Mercer has failed to do her job, and every time she opens her mouth, she affirms that fact.

Jonathan Lines

Jonathan Lines

Following Mercer’s rant, Chairman Lines once again set the record straight, and then delivered his Chairman’s Report. He spoke about the work that the party is doing to get boots on the ground, register new Republicans at a staggering 55-1 advantage over the Democrats, and build a training program that has provided tools and resources to hundreds of Republican PCs.

And yet, for some reason, following that report of a successful year at the helm, obstructionist Joe Neglia, who had previously attempted to change the rules of the meeting (we’ll let you guess how that went) called for the removal of the chair.

The action was swift and decisive. There was an objection to consideration, prompting an immediate vote by division. A small, pathetic contingent centered in LD 23 rose in defense of the motion, leaving approximately 80% of the Committee standing, quite literally, in opposition.

And once again, the obstructionists, from Gabby Mercer to Joe Neglia to Tim Horn, had exposed themselves for what they really are.

POLL: Arpaio Shakes Up AZ Senate Race

McSally leapfrogs Ward for the lead, Arpaio close second

Steve Bannon’s endorsement is the kiss of death for Kelli Ward

PHOENIX (January 10, 2018) – What happens when America’s former Toughest Sheriff joins the fray for a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona? The race for the GOP nomination gets thrown into disarray.

A new poll conducted of 504 registered voters was conducted Tuesday by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) shows U.S. Rep Martha McSally of Tucson is the new leader with 31 percent support. Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who announced this week his intention to seek the nomination, follows closely at 29 percent. Former State Sen. Kelli Ward now trails with 25 percent.

Arizona’s OH Predictive Insights and ABC15-Phoenix (OHPI/ABC-PHOENIX) teamed up to find out how the entrance of Arpaio changes the dynamics of the Senate election contest.

OHPI conducted an IVR survey of 504 likely 2018 GOP Primary Election voters comprised of Republicans, Independents and Party Non-Declared statewide here in Arizona. The sample is based on voter history and qualified as a likely voter for the 2018 GOP Primary Election in this survey with a +/-4.36% margin of error.

“Sheriff Joe makes a splash wherever he goes and his surprise entrance into the U.S. Senate race shines a new light on this important race to succeed Sen. Jeff Flake,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company.. “Everyone knows Joe. He has near-unanimous name recognition. But it doesn’t mean he is universally loved. It will be a challenge convincing voters he’s a new Joe.”

We first looked at where the candidates stack up in regards to their name ID, fav/unfav and net positive numbers.

U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, of Tucson, leads the pack, however, all three are within the margin of error. She also is the least damaged of the group given she only has a 17% total unfavorable number, although, a third of voters don’t know who she is. Arpaio clocked in at an astounding 97% name ID and by almost a 2-1 margin he holds a positive view from likely GOP primary voters. A key indicator of a winning a campaign is not just being known, but being known AND liked so we ranked the list by the people with the highest net favorable name identification to lowest positive name ID.

 

Now, let’s see how everyone stacks up in the horse race question if the election were held today.

Back in November, OH Predictive Insights polled the horse race with just McSally and Ward.  Ward was in first place with 42% and McSally trailed by 8 points at 34% with 24% undecided. With Arpaio entering the race McSally goes from second to first and Ward goes from first to last place with only 15% of voters remaining undecided.

Where did the votes go? McSally only dropped 3 points from the previous poll, which is within the margin of error. Arpaio’s entrance did not affect her. Ward on the other hand lost 17 points, which migrated over to Arpaio. Arpaio also pulled 9points of the undecideds off the board, which now leaves just 15% of voter’s undecided in this contest.

Now, we will take a look at how a Trump, Bannon or McConnell endorsement would impact GOP voters for this race.

A Trump endorsement makes a huge difference, with 73% of voters saying his endorsement is a significant influencer in their decision. And by more than 2-1, Trump moved voters in a positive direction. McConnell only moves 57% although in the wrong direction by 8 points.  Steve Bannon’s endorsement on the other hand moves 70% of voters and that direction is straight into the ground.

 

Finally, we wanted to try the horse race question again, but this time inject the primary backers of each candidate. Ward has been endorsed by Bannon.  Trump pardoned Arpaio and he was his first major endorsement in the GOP presidential primary. McSally is one of Mitch McConnell’s top recruits for Senate.

“Joe Arpaio’s decision to enter the senate race spells doom for the wobbly Ward campaign,” Noble said. “Ward’s support seemed to be a half mile wide and just a half inch deep. One day of Joe Arpaio in the race ruins more than a year of work Ward has done to capture the GOP nomination. Martha McSally and Joe Arpaio are headed for a Tombstone-style showdown in August with the winner having to take on a rested and loaded for bear Kyrsten Sinema.”

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on January 9th, 2018, from a likely 2018 GOP Primary Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, geographic location, and gender, however, age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to the survey medium. The margin of error is of ± 4.36%.  Note: Average age of those who voted a Republican ballot in the 2014 election in Arizona was 65.

Conservative Attorney Marcus Kelley Announces for LD-20 State House

(PHOENIX) – Tuesday, conservative Republican Marcus Kelley announced his candidacy for the State House in legislative district 20. Kelley, an attorney and long-time conservative activist, filed paperwork with the Secretary of State’s office to represent the district that spans the north of the Phoenix metropolitan area, including parts of Glendale, in one of the district’s two house seats. Both seats will likely become open as Representatives Anthony Kern and Paul Boyer vie for the Senate seat in the Republican Primary.

Kelley who currently works as an attorney with the law firm of Goldman and Zwillinger, has also worked in state and federal government including for former State Senate President Andy Biggs and Attorney General Mark Brnovich. Marcus has worked for the American Conservative Union and later for the Republican Study Committee when then-Congressman Mike Pence was the Chairman. He graduated from the University of Arizona and the Cardozo School of Law. Kelley also serves on the governing board of a local charter school.

“I am seeking a seat in the Arizona House to continue bringing a conservative voice to public policy matters,” Kelley stated. “My years of experience coupled with my track record of consistent conservatism on the issues will represent the constituents of LD-20 well,” he asserted.

On the issues, Kelley is a strong social and fiscal conservative. He is pledged to reducing taxes and spending in a balanced and prioritized budget. He is solidly pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, and is an outspoken supporter of the Second Amendment.

Kelley and his wife, Nickie, have been married for more than 13 years and have two children who attend a local charter school.

Frosty’s Fake News Amplifies More Lies

By Calamity June

This morning, Frosty Taylor, the author of the FakeNews “Republican Briefs,” defended the campaign of lies that she has been amplifying on behalf of La Paz County Chairman Russell Sias. For weeks, Sias has been denigrating the hard work being done at the Arizona GOP, attacking the year-long Bylaws process, and hurling personal insults at anyone who does not subscribe to his hateful tactics.

Russell Sias

To dispense with the latest Sias-fueled fever dream: the bylaws revision process has been transparent and fair, with every corner of the state represented. Any suggestion to the contrary is without merit; all bylaw changes will be given an up or down vote at next month’s Mandatory Meeting.

But beyond that, Frosty resurrected the absurd narrative, also being pushed by Sias and others, that there has been a “cleansing” of “conservative worker-bee” PCs over the last 5 or 6 years.

Last we checked, there were plenty of hard working conservative PCs who continue to form the backbone of the Arizona GOP.

Workers like Kim Owens and Lisa James, who run the Dodie Londen Excellence in Public Service program…hundreds of women from across Arizona have learned the nuts and bolts of campaigning and governing, and several have gone on to elective office, including Senator Kelli Ward, AZ GOP Secretary Gabby Mercer, and Lisa Askey, the Chairwoman of the Chandler GOP Women. And the list goes on and on.

Another victim of Frosty’s smears is Lisa Gray, a dedicated conservative and hard working PC who VOLUNTEERS her time as the Executive Director of the Maricopa County Republicans. And yet, Frosty has focused her bile at Gray, resorting to name calling and personal bile at every opportunity.

And let’s not forget Jonathan Lines, a true product of the grassroots movement and a champion of conservative causes dating back to Ronald Reagan’s election. Frosty, Sias, and their ilk have waged a near-constant effort to destroy Lines, all in the name of power and control. And yet Lines, while running multiple businesses and raising a family of 11 kids, has sacrificed countless hours to promote the Republican Party and President Trump.

The Arizona GOP is governed by strong, conservative and active precinct committeemen. And just this week, saw the fruits of their labor when Congress, finally, voted for real tax reform! This came about in no small part because Chairman Lines and the AZ GOP rallied their PCs to insist that Congress keep its promise to Arizona taxpayers. Every single Republican in the Arizona delegation supported the President’s tax reform bill. Sounds like real conservative results to us!

Frosty Taylor, Russell Sias and the rest of the “dead end caucus” do not stand for conservative results. They don’t believe in party unity. They thrive on chaos, disunity, and lies. The truth is, there is no conspiracy to “cleanse” the party of conservatives…there is no “secret” process to reform the bylaws. There are only conservative, hard-working PCs, doing their best, every day, to grow the party, elect Republicans, and Make America Great Again.

Frosty Taylor represents none of this. She’s the mouthpiece of dysfunction and lies. And more and more true Republicans are finally taking notice.

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As always, the aforementioned parties are welcome to submit a counterpoint response to Sonoran Alliance.

Poll: Who would you prefer to succeed Trent Franks?

Bob Stump Tweets Candidacy for Congress in CD-8

Former Arizona Corporation Commissioner and State Senator Bob Stump tweeted Thursday evening that he will be a candidate for Congress in Arizona’s 8th congressional district.

“Given his impending resignation from Congress, I have decided that I will be a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Congressional District 8. More to come!”

Congressman Trent Franks announced his resignation last night (see statement below) leaving the seat vacant at the end of January, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey will need to call for a special election that will certainly spur several Republican candidates in what is expected to be a competitive Primary contest. The district is heavily Republican.

You can follow Bob Stump on Twitter here.

Statement from Chairman Herring on the Resignation of Congressman Franks

Maricopa County Republicans

Phoenix, AZ – Maricopa County GOP Chairman Chris Herring released the following statement regarding the resignation of Congressman Trent Franks.

“We thank Congressman Trent Franks for his service to Arizona and Congressional District 8,” said County Chairman Chris Herring. “Congressman Franks was my representative since I moved to Arizona and I respect his decision.”

“We expect a healthy field of Republicans to contend for the seat. We look forward to the voters of District 8 deciding on their new representation.”

Poll: 2:1 Arizona Voters Support a Soda Tax Benefiting Education

Marijuana legalization has poor support if held in a mid-term election

PHOENIX (November 20, 2017) – Last week we released poll results regarding President Donald Trump’s approval rating and the state of the current U.S. Senate race here in Arizona. We also asked several other issue questions. Please note, none of these issues tested are on the ballot for 2018, although our results could lead to an interesting debate.

We conducted a survey of six hundred likely 2018 General Election Democratic, Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters across Arizona, based on likely 2018 turnout participated in this survey with a +/-4% MOE.

We begin by looking at the top-line results of the first issue question regarding a soda tax:

Respondents by an almost 2:1 margin support a tax on soda where the proceeds would go directly to education with less than 10% having no opinion. Half of Republicans would be in support, and a plurality of 2/3rd’s of Democrats and Independents support the hypothetical measure.

Females were overwhelmingly supportive and far less opposed compared to males.

·       Male support/oppose       51% / 41%

·       Female support/oppose   67% / 23%

Historically, rural Arizona is more Conservative than Pima and Maricopa counties. Much to our surprise, when looking at the geographic breakdowns, rural Arizona respondents were the most supportive of such a measure, which goes against the grain given conservatives are the most ardent opponents to tax increases.  67% of rural respondents support the measure while only 24% oppose. This may say more about the perceived condition of rural education as it does political ideology.

“According to respondent’s soda is the new ‘sin’. Just like cigarettes and alcohol, people don’t mind adding taxes there for the greater good,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “Cubs win the world series, Trump gets elected president and a Bloomberg policy has 59% support in Arizona – this is the year of the possible.”

The second question dealt with legalization of marijuana:

Legalization of marijuana for personal use was on the ballot last year in Arizona. However, it failed to pass by less than 3-points even though a large amount of money was spent in support of the measure. If this measure was on the ballot for 2018 it would underperform compared to the 2016 election results.

“Legalizing marijuana in Arizona is much less viable in a mid-term election however there is a strong chance we will see them take another run at it in 2020,” said Noble.

Finally, the remaining issue questions asked:

By more than a 2:1 margin respondents opposed non-U.S. citizen students receiving the benefit of in-state tuition at an Arizona University. 85% of Republicans and half of the Independents were in opposition, although half of Democrats were in favor. Interestingly, 25% of respondents who have some college education or are a college graduate held a negative 37-point opinion.

 

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on November 9th, 2017, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, geographic location and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondents due to it being automated. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4%.