I Was Wrong About The Election Of Donald Trump

Trump Victory

First, I must say I am very relieved that Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton. There certainly is a delicious pleasure in that victory.

Now, let me get the mea culpa out of the way.

Like many of my colleagues in the professional political consulting class, I was wrong about the election of Donald Trump.

Nearly every polls showed him losing – the pollsters were wrong.

Every time Donald Trump spoke, he polarized and divided groups of individuals. The public relations professionals were wrong.

Nearly every longtime Republican and conservative leader said he couldn’t win using his strategy. They were wrong.

I repeatedly said he needed to learn from the lessons of 2012 when it comes to millennials, women and minority groups and affirm their libertarian and conservative values. The leader of the Grand Old Party needs to pursue a mathematical strategy of addition and multiplication rather than subtraction and division if they want to grow the party. Apparently, there was some “new math” at work in this election.

During the last days of the election, I believed it came down which demographic groups would turn out for Donald Trump. Would women, Latinos and millennials overcome the intensity of angry, aging, white, blue-collar Americans? Donald Trump obviously heard the voices of the latter and hit a nerve.

Donald Trump managed to pull off one of the biggest political shocks in American electoral history and we, the political consulting class were wrong.

But while we may remain wrong on why Donald Trump got elected as our 45th President, we may very well be right about our earlier concerns.

Donald Trump has “caught the bus” and must now grasp the sobering reality of governance.

He must now surround himself with individuals who will help him with the gargantuan task of running the country. Those individuals will most likely come from the establishment. Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Jeff Sessions, Chris Christie – all longtime Washington insiders and dare I note, members of the very “Establishment” class Donald Trump publicly excoriated. Will Trump’s die-hard supporters give him a pass over these selections? (Queue up “You Can’t Always Get What You Want.)

There are also the thousands of executive staff Trump will need to replace. Will he pull from the thousands of individuals with Washington experience who work as lobbyists, hill staffers and interest groups to fill those positions? Or will he bring in new blood from the heartland? I believe the former. Do you see where I’m going with this?

If President Trump truly wants to be successful, he needs experienced talent and there’s really only one pool to pull talented individuals – the establishment.

Candidate Donald Trump promised an agenda to make America great again during the campaign. Can President Donald Trump deliver on those promises? I believe he’s going to find it harder than he expected.

Do we really believe President Trump will be able to build an impenetrable wall along the southern border and make Mexico pay for it? Will President Trump sign an executive order banning all Muslims from entering the country? Can we expect President Trump to tear up NAFTA in one swift move?

His establishment cabinet and advisers are about to tell him just how hard governing really is.

The reality is President Trump has nothing to fear from the political left. He’s survived that battle and won. The real threat to a Trump administration is from those who wanted to burn Washington down. We’re about to find out how assimilated Donald Trump will become to the swamp he wants to drain.

Ted Cruz may prove right about Donald Trump’s northeastern values and mid-westerners may not be happy.

There is much to be hopeful and excited about however.

Republicans now control Washington, DC. Let me say that again. Republicans now control the Executive and Legislative branches of government. This is huge!

President Trump and the Republican Congress have a critical time frame to accomplish as much as possible and that starts with securing as much of the Judicial branch of government as possible.

The first 100 days of a Trump Administration means cleaning up the mess from the last eight and even 16 years. The Republican congress finally has a President who will not veto a repeal of the Affordable Care Act. They need to drop that bill on Day 1.

President Trump has other monumental tasks that he can single-handily accomplish: rescinding the hundreds of executive orders of Barack Obama; tearing up the Iran Deal; changing leadership and overhauling the VA; reigning in the powers of the many regulatory agencies, and restoring morale among the men and women of our military branches. It’s a lot to do and he should not meet any resistance from a Republican Congress. In this area, he not only needs to be assertive. President Trump needs to be aggressive.

Getting the “relatively easy” tasks done quickly will allow President Trump to focus on his more long-term and ongoing agenda such as restoring the courts; protecting religious freedom; repealing Dodd-Frank; reorienting energy policy; rebuilding the military; reforming immigration; improving national infrastructure and improving international trade relations.

Finally, President Trump needs to avoid picking fights with Congress over politics. There is no time to waste on grudges or personality conflicts. The American people want major action and no drama. These types of antics will only send the GOP down a box canyon where they will be massacred in the 2018 mid-term elections.

While I was wrong about the election of Donald Trump, I hope I’m not wrong about President Trump. Like many movement conservatives, I will remain steadfast on principles and policy and speak up when I believe his administration is wrong.

Donald Trump deserves our congratulations, prayers and well-wishes. He has been chosen to carry out the single-most powerful job in the world and we must support him as the leader of the free world.

Congratulations President-Elect Donald Trump.

 

Today is Election Day – Now Go Vote!

Today is the General Election and the the future of public policy hangs in the balance.

Electing Hillary Clinton will continue the agenda of Barack Obama – more of the same and even worse.

Electing Donald Trump will change the face of the Republican Party.

The ideological composition of the United States Supreme Court hangs in the balance.

Face it, we have the worst candidates to choose from but we must still make a choice.

Please take the time to vote today.

If you’re looking for info on state and local candidates, you can go to the Center for Arizona Policy’s Arizona Voter Guide.

If you’re looking for information on Arizona judges, find it here.

Now go vote!

Republicans Waging War In LD-28 – Against Fellow Republicans

Plenty of drama continues to unfold in Arizona’s 28th legislative district.

This time, Republican candidate Matt Morales delivers a robodial urging voters to only vote for Republican Mary Hamway.

There are two Republican candidates running against one Democrat in LD-28. Two seats, three candidates, two Republicans, one Democrat.

This should be easy.

But not in LD-28 where warring Republicans are urging a single-shot strategy because they assume a Democrat will win. It’s a complete rollover.

Now Matt Morales is a friend of ours but we cannot understand why he’s wrapped up in this every-woman-for-herself election strategy, especially if he plans to run for

Republicans should be holding tight and voting THE REPUBLICAN TEAM in LD-28 and not assuming the Democrat is going to win. These are real votes when it comes to passing a Republican agenda in the House. Every Republican vote helps.

Our reality is that we’re not big fans of Mary Hamway but when House leadership needs an “R,” they’re not gonna find it in a Kelli Butler.”

Republicans can elect center-right Republican Maria Syms and moderate Republican Mary Hamway in LD-28; Or, they can elect a Republican and a leftist Democrat to those two House seats. The result will be an easier legislative path or a harder legislative path. That’s the end game.

Our recommendation: More Republicans, less drama please.

 

Donald Trump Must Step Aside

Donald Trump

I can no longer hold my tongue.

As a lifelong Republican who believes in a party that is far more principled on economic, international and social issues than the Democrat party, I can no longer diplomatically maneuver through the cesspool that our nominee has created.

Donald Trump must step aside.

Yes, Bill Clinton did some horrible things as President of the United States throughout the 1990’s. Many Americans gave him a second term despite all his liberal social policy positions and personal behavior. (I’m still angry at those who only cared about their wallets and gave Bill a pass when he was leading the charge in the collapse of our moral climate.)

But Bill Clinton is not running for President in 2016.

Don’t get me wrong. I will never vote to return Bill and Hillary Clinton to the White House.

It has now come to the point of full repulsion when trying to defend Donald Trump as the nominee. From all the conversations I’ve had with other lifelong conservative Republicans, I’m not alone.

We’re now 30 days from the General Election and time is running out.

The latest horrifying and disgusting revelations about Donald Trump have doomed the Republican nominee to lose this election, badly.

Trump supporters wanted to “burn the house the down” and now their fire is out of control. Some are even throwing more gasoline on the fire.

Down ballot Republicans are doomed – unless they denounce and distance themselves from the top of the ticket. Even Governor Mike Pence must be in self-preservation mode as he considers his life on Wednesday, November 9th.

I still have a lot of pent-up anger toward Republicans who gave Trump the nomination. Many of my fellow conservatives and I did everything we could to warn voters that nominating Trump would be disastrous to the GOP. We got tired of warning, begging and shouting and shoved that anger deep down inside when he became the nominee.

It’s time for a justified outburst – before it’s too late.

Donald Trump must step aside.

Vote for Moses Sanchez for Maricopa County Community College District Board

I like to refer to my friend Moses Sanchez as the “Happy Warrior.” Moses is running for the Maricopa County Community College District Board this November and is someone who will bring positive conservative values and leadership to the board.

Moses Sanchez is the type of conservative we need in the Republican Party – a party we need to grow and expand if we want to affect positive change and bring new people into the party.

Moses Sanchez migrated to the United States from Panama with his parents and sister. He has served on active duty in the US Navy including a deployment to Afghanistan. He is currently serves in the reserves. He has a B.S. and MBA in Business Management and has taught economics at South Mountain Community College. He also serves on Tempe Union High School District Governing Board. He owns his own small business which helps other small businesses with social media.

Moses and his wife, Maria Manriquez, MD, have three children and three grandchildren. He is a man of faith and family and demonstrates a strong ethic in everything he does. And if you’ve seen his Snapchat videos, you know the man can seriously cook! (Read Moses’ full bio here.)

Moses is running in MCCCD (district) 1 which covers all of Ahwatukee, Chandler, Tempe, Gilbert, Queen Creek and parts of Scottsdale, Mesa, and Phoenix. He is competing against two other candidates in the race.

Early ballots are scheduled to go out later this week. When you get your ballot, immediately go to the bottom of the ballot and mark your vote for Moses Sanchez.

Moses will bring strong, optimistic and conservative governance to the MCCCD and it’s why I ask you to vote for Moses Sanchez this election.

Visit Moses Sanchez’ website at www.MosesSanchez.com. And, follow Moses Sanchez on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Instagram.

Anti-McCain Republicans Still Not Anti-McCain Enough to Defeat McCain

 
A quick review of the Primary Election numbers on the Republican US Senate Race shows that Senator John McCain had no real threat of losing the nomination, again.

John McCain

John McCain

I went back and reviewed the official canvass from 2010 and compared those numbers with yesterday’s unofficial election results.

Here’s the comparison:

August 24, 2010 Republican Primary Election
John McCain – 333,744 / 56.25%
JD Hayworth – 190,299 / 32.07%
Jim Deakin – 69,328 / 11.68%

August 30, 2016 Republican Primary Election
John McCain – 251,068 / 51.65%
Kelli Ward – 190,618 / 39.21%
Alex Melusky – 26,805 / 5.51%
Clair Van Steenwyk – 17,649 / 3.63%
Assuming votes for any of the 2010 and 2016 challengers were “anti-McCain” votes, those votes were still not enough to overcome a re-nomination of McCain. However, those numbers rose in 2016.

2010 Primary
John McCain – 333,744 / 56.25%
Anti-McCain – 259,627 / 43.75%

Kelli Ward

Kelli Ward

2016 Primary
John McCain – 251,068 / 51.65%
Anti-McCain – 235,072 / 48.35%

Of course, this assumes that voter registration and turnout models are the same (which they are not). As you can see, John McCain collected 82, 676 fewer votes than he did in 2010. He also lost 4.6% of his edge among Republican voters.

What does this mean moving forward?

John McCain will likely face his most difficult General Election ever.

Ann Kirkpatrick

Ann Kirkpatrick

In her last campaign finance reporting, Ann Kirkpatrick disclosed she has $2.3 Million in the bank. John McCain’s last report showed just over $5 Million cash on hand. Assuming he’s depleted a portion of that amount fending off Primary challengers, and, the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee has allocated funds to Arizona, this will be McCain’s toughest campaign.

If we also consider the “Trump Factor” and the division in the Arizona Republican Party, Arizona Republicans run a higher risk of losing this US Senate seat to Ann Kirkpatrick.

Not surprising, those voting for Donald Trump may not vote for John McCain and those voting for John McCain may not be voting for Donald Trump.

I still see a divided Republican Party in Arizona between those who learned from the 2012 Presidential race and those who didn’t.

Republicans in Arizona are not united, and it’s still to be seen if they will be on November 8th.

Washington Insiders Engage in False Advertising Against Christine Jones

You may have seen or heard political ads attacking Christine Jones over comments she made regarding Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. A Washington insider group cherry-picked comments from her social media, intentionally took them out of context and twisted them into a hit and run political commercial.

This group is now spending hundreds of thousands of dark dollars in false advertising to attack Jones under the mantra of guilt by association. This political insider group wants the average viewer to believe that Christine Jones is a Democrat-sympathizer whose loyalty to the Republican Party is in doubt.

Nothing could be further from the truth. These political ads are false.

Voters in Congressional District 5 should know that Christine Jones is a lifelong Republican who oftentimes tells voters that she went out of her way to visit the DMV on her 18th birthday to register as a Republican. She’s been loyal and dedicated to the GOP for nearly three decades.

For those who do their homework on Christine Jones, they’ll note that she committed to support the nominee of the Republican Party months ago. They’ll also note that as recent as two weeks ago, she blasted Hillary Clinton on multiple charges including, the email scandal, the Clinton Foundation, the Clinton Speeches and Hillary’s failure and cover-up of the Benghazi murders.

If you really want to check Christine Jones’ commitment to defeating Barack Obama, all you need to do is check the Federal Election Commission records. You’ll see that she donated $55,000 of her personal money to the 2012 Mitt Romney Victory Fund. That’s what’s referred to as “putting your money where your mouth is.”

How much did Christine Jones’ opponents donate to the Mitt Romney Victory Fund in 2012? According to FEC reports, zero dollars. That’s Z-E-R-O.

The truth is that Washington insiders are seeking to hand-pick a career politician to succeed outgoing Congressman Matt Salmon. They’re spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to smear a lifelong, loyal conservative Republican who has a proven record of fiscal accountability and effectiveness.

This election, don’t fall for the dark money false advertising by the Washington elite. If all they’ve got is a few tweets taken out of context, they’ve got nothing.

A 30-year commitment to conservative principles means something and shouldn’t have to compete against a 30-second distortion. Christine Jones is a true conservative Republican who won’t be bullied by political insiders and will fight for you in Congress.

Christine Jones, Pro-Life Candidate For Congress

Recently, it came to my attention that two Gilbert pro-life activists supporting Andy Biggs are circulating an email attacking the sanctity of life position of my friend, Christine Jones. I understand that. It’s election time and being a little over zealous comes with the territory.

For those who vote for a candidate based on a single-issue, each of the Republican congressional candidates running in CD-5 have identified as pro-life.

As the former Executive Director of Arizona Right to Life and someone who has been a part of the Arizona landscape of the pro-life movement for over two decades, I am supporting Christine Jones and have joined her team for Congress. I only support and work for pro-life candidates and that’s a deal-breaker for me.

I also believe strongly that if the pro-life movement is going to win – especially in the public relations matrix – we need to elect more pro-life women to office. I’m not alone. Organizations such as Susan B. Anthony List focus on electing pro-life women to office around the country.

Other pro-life activists, culture warriors and faith leaders also support Christine Jones. In fact, Monday, she announced the endorsement of three well-known pastors who shepherd huge churches in the East Valley. These leaders in the faith know Christine well and know she can be trusted with issues as fundamental as the sanctity of life.

As you cast your vote for Congress, remember no other right is as sacred as the first and foremost right to life. Christine Jones will defend and protect that right for the unborn and their mothers because she is pro-life.

Fear and Fundraising in AZ01

Elected law enforcement officials are in the precarious position of approaching their job from either a half-empty or a half-full position. As we’ve seen from many a sheriff, fear is a tremendous motivator when it comes to driving an agenda. Some sheriffs might cast their office as the object to be feared. Other sheriffs cast the outside world as the source of all danger.

The latter is what we witnessed in the public arena from Sheriff Paul Babeu on Tuesday.

Babeu Press Conference

In a press conference (which turned into a political speech), Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu claimed he has “additional intelligence” that Mexican hit men or “sicarios” were heading into Arizona to assassinate rival drug cartel members. Those attacks would likely take place over Memorial Day weekend. He cited several incidents south of Pinal County and advised campers and hikers to be fully armed and prepared to protect themselves. The press conference turned political when Babeu blamed the Obama Administration for not protecting our southern border (a point we agree on).

Sicario

Members of the media immediately picked up on the sheriff’s advisory and ran with stories of impending threats and attacks to American citizens in the Arizona desert. Several media outlets didn’t quite take the bait (KTAR, KPNX)

What was barely mentioned was that hours after the warning, congressional candidate Paul Babeu sent out a fundraising letter mentioning his press conference and advisory. The timing couldn’t be more obvious: Fear is a tremendous motivator for fundraising.

Babeu even appeared on Your World with Neil Cavuto talking up the threat and danger of Mexican assassins running rampant through the Arizona desert.

Babeu Cavuto

Photo courtesy of Paul Babeu’s Twitter feed.

[pullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]The timing couldn’t be more obvious: Fear is a tremendous motivator for fundraising.[/pullquote]

Some of us aren’t buying Sheriff Babeu’s ploy. Here’s why:

First, any threat of this nature would be announced from the Department of Homeland Security, FBI, Border Patrol and Arizona Department of Public Safety. When a threat is this serious and credible, it is vetted at all levels of government and is passed through multiple chains of command and communications. Governor Doug Ducey would be one of the first to know and to issue warnings through Arizona DPS. The Sheriff claims he was informed about the threat but failed to share it with other law enforcement agencies?

Second, Paul Babeu is a candidate for congress running on a single-issue – immigration and border security. Even though Pinal county does not border Mexico, illegal border crossers still make their way through his jurisdiction – just like they do in every other county in Arizona. We certainly won’t disagree that immigration and border security has become a national security issue we should take seriously, but some politicians have used the issue as a fear-for-votes political strategy. For Paul Babeu, it’s the only issue he knows and he’s using it at every opportunity for pure political gain. Multiple media appearances and fundraising letters from Babeu are evidence of this.

Finally, in law enforcement matters, every serious credible threat demands a serious credible response or action plan. According to reports, during his press conference, Sheriff Babeu made no request for assistance from the Governor’s office, Arizona DPS, Homeland Security, the National Guard, the FBI, etc. Instead, he told private citizens to arm themselves. A review of several Arizona law enforcement agency websites including the Governor’s office, shows no mention of public safety threats by sicarios in the Arizona desert.

We’re not buying it.

The truth is, we have a county sheriff running for Congress who is sensationalizing on the only issue he knows in order to grab media attention and raise money for his political campaign.

In the meantime, private citizens have been told to pack heat in the badlands of Arizona by a sheriff who apparently is finding it difficult to protect his own constituents.

This Memorial Day weekend, we recommend being vigilant of all threats – whether they’re credible or presented for pure political profit.

But most importantly, we ask that you remember and honor those, who against all fear and personal gain, paid the ultimate price through their selfless sacrifice to protect and preserve our freedoms.

Tom Chabin’s Dark Money Past

In the race for Arizona Corporation Commission, there are several candidates who aren’t who they say they are.

One candidate in particular, has made a major part of his campaign platform about running against “dark money.” You see it on his website, social media and in the media.

Tom Chabin Dark Money

Tom Chabin rails about dark money being spent by big power companies. We assume he’s referring to APS and their First Amendment participation in the election process.

What Tom Chabin doesn’t want you to know is that he was the direct beneficiary of  “dark money” during his failed state senate campaign in 2012.

According to the Arizona Secretary of State’s website, Chapin was the direct beneficiary of $204,531 from four independent expenditure groups.

Tom Chabin IE Money

America Votes is listed as a labor union organization based out of Washington, DC. On their website, they tout “building progressive power” and partnering with every radical leftist organization in America. During the 2012 election cycle, they spent $127,077 in Arizona to elect Democrat candidates. Chabin was one of those Democrats they attempted to elect. Fortunately, they failed.

Another organization that spent $145,774 to keep Tom Chabin in his $24,000/year legislative seat was the Arizona Accountability Project. On their campaign finance reports, they reported $475,000 funneled from an outside dark money group called Revive Arizona Now. They ended up spending $561,047 on Democrat candidates in 2012.

Chabin also was aided and abetted by two other independent expenditure committees. Citizens for Public Education spent $315 but Revitalize Arizona kicked in $44,318 in an effort to save his re-election. According to the Secretary of State’s website, Revitalize Arizona took in $744,328.47 from another group called Residents for Accountability which Tucson media reported, “that group’s finances are a bit of a Russian nesting doll.” Revitalize Arizona spent $44,318 to re-elect Tom Chabin in 2012.

[pullquote align=”left” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Revitalize Arizona – “that group’s finances are a bit of a Russian nesting doll”[/pullquote]

Tom Chabin lost his bid for the Arizona State Senate in 2012.

Now Chabin is running for a seat on the Arizona Corporation Commission as part of a Democrat team with Bill Mundell.

Chabin and Mundell are running as “Clean Elections” candidates so they won’t be asking for private donations in their race. PAC’s and individuals will still donate and participate in the election under Arizona campaign finance limits. Independent expenditure committees will still attempt to affect the outcome of the race through express advocacy. And we expect non-profit organizations to air issue-ads to “educate” citizens about the issues.

Both Democrats have made it their mission to attack their opponents by alleging Republicans are part of a vast right-wing conspiracy with APS. (They’re not.)

Both Chabin and Mundell are pushing for Big Solar’s agenda. These solar companies, backed by big environmental leftists, want to retain and expand on their taxpayer subsidies. If elected, Chabin and Mundell will work to keep the taxpayer dollars flowing to these solar corporations.

Given the dismal history of bankruptcies and bailouts of big solar corporations like Solyndra, SunEdison and Abengoa, handing authority to Democrats like Tom Chabin and Bill Mundell would be a financial disaster to ratepayers and the energy market.

Tom Chabin

Expect Big Solar to strong-arm this race and spend big money to put their corporate cronies in place. Just don’t expect leftist-friendly media to shine any light on their dark spending or on Chabin’s dark money past.