It’s been a long time since I’ve actually posted so I’m jumping back on the horse with an easy post about presidential politics.
It’s still very early in the season and not all candidates have announced but here are a few of my own thoughts from where we stand right now:
1. Governor’s Jeb Bush and John Kasich make the establishment pick. Bush from Florida and Kasch from Ohio could possibly ensure two key pickup states. Not at the top of my list but like Romney, the GOP would probably settle for this team.
2. Dr. Ben Carson is running to be the next Surgeon General – where he really belongs at one of the most important bully pulpits.
3. Governor Scott Walker: A great reform governor but does he have the gravitas to push to the head of the pack? My biggest worry for Walker is that he becomes the 2016 Tim Pawlenty. He’s also one of my favorites.
4. Senator Marco Rubio: My top choice at the moment. Young, Latino, great communicator, he could be the right person given the changing demographics. Besides, who said young junior senators couldn’t become President?
5. Hillary Clinton: Doomed. TOO MUCH BAGGAGE. BUT, I want her to win the nomination. She has to win the nomination because the extreme left has no choice and feel obligated to give her the nomination.
6. Martin O’Malley: Someone who could snatch victory from the jaws of Hillary. Still an extremely left Democrat but the candidate running his mouth on “equality” issues. Republicans should be concerned.
7. James Webb: The one Democrat Republicans should fear the most. If the Democrats wanted to put a statesman-like candidate up, they’d nominate the former senator from Virginia. His military and political career stand above any of the Republicans currently in the field. He also comes off as moderate to many in the middle. Republicans better hope he doesn’t win the Democrat nomination.
Explaining why he is chairing the “No” committee, United States Army Veteran Matthew Kenney said, “When I returned from the battlefields in the Middle East, my hometown of Phoenix led the country in kidnapping and poverty.” Kenney said he was staggered to learn, “At a time when my commute times are below the national average, Phoenix’s murder, robbery, assault and overall crime rates were on the rise (latest 2012 statistics). Phoenix leaders have lost their focus – it’s about badges not buses — they are getting it wrong.”
Once touted as one of the “best-run” cities in the country, Phoenix, Arizona has seen a troubling decline since the new Mayor was sworn in, in 2011. In discussing Phoenix’s rapid decline, Taken for a Ride Consultant, Mike Noble said, “Phoenix was most recently a city in the black and now finds itself trying to tax itself out of the red. No society in the history of the world has taxed itself into prosperity regardless of the types of jobs you intend to create.”
In what many are calling a generational tax, Proposition 104’s language is very unclear according to election observers and legal scholars who are considering challenges. Mike Noble said, “Hiding $31 Billion from taxpayers reminds me of underhanded politics– Politician’s generally rue the day that they try to slip one by the taxpayers.”
Matthew Kenny added, “Phoenicians and small business owners will have to shoulder a 31.5 billion dollar tax burden and the mayor cut a deal with big business excluding purchases above $10,000 from the proposed new tax, where is my deal Mr. Mayor?”
Chairman, Matthew Kenney concluded, “31 billion dollars will buy every man, woman and child living in Phoenix Arizona today, a smart car…. Out of the goodness of Phoenix taxpayer’s hearts, we could also purchase a smart car for every man woman and child who lives in Tucson Arizona. This is just bad policy, we should vote no on Prop 104.”
Matthew Kenney served 6 years as an infantry officer in the United States Army and fought in Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation New Dawn. Matthew resides in Phoenix, is married to his lovely wife, Brittany, father to his daughter Eden and they expecting one more addition to the family in several months.
The following outlines the key findings from an automated survey commissioned by Coleman Dahm and Associates. Coleman Dahm does not have any financial interest on this issue. Interviews were conducted April 27, 2015 with likely statewide voters. The margin of error for the entire sample (n=845) is +/- 3.42% at the 95% confidence level. Initial support for the proposed casino collapses once voters become aware of the fraudulent activities of the Tohono O’odham Nation:
Initial Ballot Informed Ballot Differential
Initial Ballot Informed Ballot Differential
SUPPORT 54% 39% -15%
OPPOSE 37% 55% +18%
UNDECIDED 9% 6% -3%
There is overwhelming support for Senator McCain and Senator Flake’s legislation to prohibit any new casinos from being built in the Phoenix area:
There is also broad support for the actions of the Governor, Attorney General, and the Arizona Department of Gaming to not certify gaming activity at the proposed Glendale casino.
Based on the survey results there is overwhelming support from voters to oppose new gaming in the Phoenix metropolitan area. Once voters become aware of the various issues surrounding the conduct of those involved with this proposed casino, opposition grows by 18% to a clear majority in opposition. This survey shows that most of Arizona’s elected officials are acting with large support for their activities in trying to stop this casino.
By Christopher Herring
During a contentious debate, the Arizona Republican Party’s executive committee rejected a proposal to close future primaries to independents.
Although there are good faith arguments in favor of limiting participation to Republicans only, the perception, and most importantly, the financial cost, outweighed any potential benefits.
In 1998, voters approved a measure that allowed independents to vote in the primary of any recognized party. Now part of the Arizona Constitution, the law initially conceived by a Republican controlled legislature, would likely be defended by the Arizona’s Attorney General’s office, greatly increasing the financial cost and risk to an already budget strapped political cycle where every dollar counts.
A significant obstacle to the party is the notion that Republicans support the rule of law and the Arizona Constitution. Suing the state to not administer its constitution isn’t the best headline for the party. Another significant challenge would be that the state party would have to show a severe burden is caused by independents voting in Republican primaries. Specifically that independents voting changed the ideological outcomes of elections in a manner significant enough to overturn the will of the voters to keep the primary open. In the most recent elections, independents have not voted in high numbers in party primaries and the case can be made that Arizona Republicans are more conservative than they have ever been on fiscal and social issues. Proving a severe burden would be a large task for the party’s attorneys.
In fact, every scenario discussed to close the primaries were fraught with risk. Whether it was a lawsuit, assuming the financial obligation of administering the entire primary, or funding a lawsuit to close the primary, the cost would be shouldered by all Republicans with no guarantee of success and a likelihood of failure.
The singular criticism surrounding the partially open primary is the moderating effect it creates on Republican elections. Although independents are growing in America and in Arizona, Republicans continue to enjoy a significant voter registration advantage over the Democratic Party and continue to hold onto every major statewide elected office. Judging by the lack of moderate or liberal Republicans holding statewide offices, it is difficult to prove that the small number of independents are gaming the Republican primary.
If there is a real fear in closing the primary outside of costs, it is alienating Arizona’s right leaning independents. In fact, as independents continue to grow, the Republicans cannot simply ignore their growing influence but must be continually active in persuading them that their principles are aligned with traditional party beliefs. Many independents describe themselves as conservatives but simply don’t want the label of Republican.
The state executive committee made the right call to not divert resources away from the continued march of winning elections and enacting conservative policies by embarking on long and expensive lawsuits with no guarantee of success. Arizona’s Republican Party consists of a diverse group of voters, fighting for conservative principles that make our lives better every day. The Party, under the leadership of Robert Graham, should continue to focus on what it is doing well, winning short term victories and building long term relationships to enhance the Republican brand in Arizona.
Christopher Herring is the President of the Maricopa County Young Republican Professionals and member of the Arizona Republican Party Executive Committee.
By Daniel Stefanski
A hearty thanks to AZGOP Chairman Robert Graham for working through another executive board meeting! Today, it sounds like the board voted against funding a lawsuit for closing Republican primaries. As it should have been, Robert allowed the motion to be voted on, and the representatives of the precinct and state committeemen did what they felt was in the best interest of the Arizona Republican Party and election victories in 2015 and 2016.
And for all the heartache by a select few over the closed meeting today, it was not closed to those who were duly elected in previous elections. Want to sit in and participate in future state party executive meetings that may be closed to observers? Run for election for one of those positions next time around. The process isn’t being obstructed. It’s being followed to the letter of the law.
Robert Graham voluntarily signed up for a non-paid job with round-the-clock hours, but he did not sign up for a job that featured lies, distortion and people from his own party working against future Republican victories to serve their own self interests. Before this meeting, Robert did not fight against the resolution to close our primary. Rather, he expressed his opinions and waited for the process to carry itself out. While false allegations that Robert was carrying out other interested party’s wishes swirled around prior to today’s meeting, it is now a fact that the AZGOP executive committee voted within their rights and responsibilities to table the closed primary funding proposal.
Though one will never come, I think Robert Graham is owed an apology for the way he has been treated and maligned by people who claim to be in the same party as him.
And to make up for an apology that will never come, I think Robert deserves thanks and encouragement by all those who appreciate the 2014 victories he was very instrumental in helping to achieve. We who were involved in the 2014 campaigns know how hard the State Party worked throughout the entire cycle.
Robert and the Arizona Republican Party have pledged to stay neutral in primaries, and they have remained faithful to that promise. The AZGOP has also always upheld the party platform during Robert’s tenure as chair. Those who claim that Robert is attempting to pave a path for any individual primary contender are doing so without any factual basis. Robert is not going to pull any favors for any candidate in a contested primary election, and he’s not going to lead the AZGOP towards an ideological potion that does not adhere to the entirety of our platform. Activists may “want” him to do their work for them in a contested primary election, but he’s just not going to do play favorites. So to save everyone’s time, let’s support our primary candidates and await the time when the AZGOP will be waiting for the Democrats with guns a-blazin’ after the winning Republicans make it past their primaries.
Thanks as well to everyone who sacrifices their time to serve at the AZGOP and on the executive committee!
Let’s work for some more GOP victories in 2015 and 2016! Who’s with me?!
A recent poll conducted by ASU’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy focused on several issues including the most important issue facing Arizona and our economy, illegal immigration. The stunning results were intentionally muted by the local media in order to hide the fact that a large swath of Arizona Democrats agree with conservatives on the issue of deporting those in the country illegally.
Possibly more stunning than the fact that 35% of Democrats agree with conservatives on enforcing current immigration law is that Arizona Latinos agree with conservatives at a greater rate than Arizona Democrats — 47%.
What portion of the poll did the news editors choose to cover? Pot legalization.
Here are the main points from the poll:
- 30% of AZ Dems & 51% of AZ Latinos disagree with the following statement – “Undocumented immigrants bolster Arizona’s workforce and we should do whatever’s necessary to make it easier for them to come to Arizona.”
- 35% of AZ Dems, 47% of Latinos, & 53% of Independents agree with the following statement – “Arizona should aggressively pursue the deportation of undocumented immigrants”
We at ArizonaInformer are waiting with baited breath for Phoenix New Slimes “Fat Bastard” Stephen Lemons, Laurie Roberts, and Brahm Resnik to label Arizona Democrats and Latinos as racist, nativists, who seek to ‘ethnically cleanse’ Arizona.
Yesterday, Senate Republicans, led by decorated war veteran Sen. Tom Cotton, penned an open letter to the Iranian government informing them that any agreement they reach with President Obama can be undone by future Presidents and Congresses. The letter has Jeff Flake upset and joining the Obama administration and Hillary Clinton lashing out Senate Republicans.
In an interview with AZ Republic’s Dan Nowicki Flake stated, “I just didn’t think it was appropriate… I’m not very bullish on the chance of these negotiations resulting in a good agreement, or an agreement at all, but we ought to explore it…We ought to give it every opportunity to succeed.”
Per the norm, this attack on Senate Republicans has earned the praise from Cafeteria Catholic AZ Republic columnist Ed Montini who labeled Flake ‘more mature’ than liberal Senator John McCain who was among the 47 Senators that signed Sen Cotton’s letter. Jeff Flake has officially crossed over to the ‘dark side’ and the fact that he’s now the media’s favorite Republican Senator is just confirmation of that.
2018 cannot come soon enough.