AZ01 Poll: Andy Tobin Leads Ann Kirkpatrick by 8 Points

In the race for Arizona’s First Congressional District, challenger Andy Tobin holds a substantial 8 point lead over incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick, 51 percent to 43 percent, demonstrating a clear path to victory for Tobin.

The poll, taken September 2-4, was conducted by Dave Sackett of The Tarrance Group, one of the most respected pollsters in the country who has experience accurately polling in Arizona (see attached memo for full analysis).

Tobin holds a strong 7 point advantage among Independents, and is attracting significant cross-over appeal, earning 18 percent of the vote among registered Democrats. President Obama is very unpopular in the district, with a 57 percent disapproval rating, as is the Affordable Care Act (58 percent disapprove).

“The data speaks for itself: Ann Kirkpatrick’s record has caught up to her, and voters in Arizona’s First Congressional District are looking for a new voice to represent them in Congress,” said Tobin campaign manager Bill Cortese. “Arizonans clearly see Kirkpatrick as part of the problem in Washington and are looking to Andy Tobin for a fresh start.”

Some of the key findings:

Congressional Ballot
Tobin: 51%
Kirkpatrick: 43%
Undecided: 6%

Obama Job Approval
Disapprove: 57%
Approve: 38%

Generic Ballot
Republican: 50%
Democrat: 42%

Kirkpatrick Reelect
Ready For Someone New: 53%
Kirkpatrick Deserves Reelection: 35%

Affordable Care Act
Disapprove: 58%
Approve: 39%

Governor’s Race in AZ-01
Ducey: 47%
DuVal: 34%


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