Facing the potential loss of Randy Pullen as Arizona Republican State Party Chairman, conservative and tea party leaders have begun discussion over who should succeed the man who gave them a seat at the table over the last four years. So far, only three names have come up as potential replacements and each is a devoted McCain follower – Marty Hermanson, Vernon Parker, and Phil Townsend. Oddly, in spite of their common allegiance to Team McCain, each is being urged forward by a different faction within that group, but none of them have any ties to any part of the conservative/tea party alliance that kept Pullen in office. Parker has strong ties to Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a popular voice within both movements, but he is tightly tied to Nathan Sproul who remains anathema to the same groups. As such, none of the three has any real support within the conservative grassroots and a conservative consensus candidate is being looked for. Two names that have come up early and often are Don Goldwater and Senate President Russell Pearce. Each has a statewide network of support, has conservative bona fides, and could garner the endorsement of most of the big names from the right-wing of the party. What is clear from the early conversations is that a candidate will be agreed upon and rallied around early, so that the conservative vote is not split, and the Republican Party in Arizona will remain under conservative leadership.
The New Left: Trained, Radical and Ready
Most voters have not heard of Progressive Majority, but they are training the far-left of politics and their candidates are plentiful here in Arizona. With “liberal” no longer a positive label in politics, they now call themselves “progressives”, but the ideology remains the same – higher taxes, more spending, a larger government at every level, greater control over people’s lives, and liberal social policies. Their stated goal is to not “let conservatives dominate the 2010 elections” and they have six candidates running in Arizona’s statewide and legislative contests. These far-left candidates include Andrei Cherny (State Treasurer), Angela Cotera (LD12 House), Rae Waters (LD20 House), Pat Fleming (LD25 House), Cheryl Cage (LD30 Senate) and Andrea Dallesandro (LD30 House). Each is committed to Progressive Majority’s liberal agenda, each supports the most radical elements of the Obama agenda like ObamaCare, Cap & Trade, Card Check, etc. and each has received training from the organization on policy and campaigning. These candidates all refrain from mentioning Progressive Majority or its role in their campaigns, either on their websites or in their public appearances, likely because they recognize that being recruited and trained by hard-left out-of-state organizations won’t be well received by Arizona voters that they are trying to sell their “independence” to, but every Arizona voter needs to be aware that these groups and their candidates are alive and well right here in Arizona, and while they are not campaigning as hardcore liberals, that is exactly what they are.
Fallout Begins For Republicans Co-Hosting Fundraiser With Democrats
Today’s Yellow Sheet carries a press release about the upcoming “12 in ’10″ fundraiser event that is trying to land big-dollar contributions for 12 candidates, including some high-profile Democrats. The event will take place at the Biltmore Resort and attendees are expected to contribute a minimum of $2,500 per person, divided amongst the candidates. So just who are the like-minded candidates that these donors are coming to see and help? Some of the Republican names include State Representatives Adam Driggs, Rich Crandall, Michelle Reagan, and Bill Konopnicki. There are some Republican challengers on the list as well, including Doug Sposito, Karen Fann, and Kate McGee.
Joining them for the event are a couple of big-name Democrats, including one of the GOP’s top targets for the 2010 cycle, State Representative Eric Meyer, and Justin Johnson, son of former Mayor Paul Johnson, who is challenging GOP Senator Linda Gray.
Several things about this fundraiser has tongues wagging. First, the price of admission. Ordinary folks can’t afford $2,500, so the target audience for this event is clearly a select group of well-funded individuals, PACs, and interest groups. Second, no one can remember the last time Republicans teamed up with Democrats to raise money for each other, especially during an election season, and especially during a primary season when many of the Republican candidates are engaged in primaries themselves.
Reagan has no real challengers this cycle, so she can team with the Democrats without and consequences. But it is a risky gamble for people like Konopnicki or Crandall. Certainly their GOP opponents will be making some noise about their lack of loyalty. Challengers like Sposito and Fann can also be taken to task by local opposition. The most interesting district to watch will be LD11, where Adam Driggs and Kate McGee are actively raising money for the Democrat in their own district. The same Democrat that the rest of the Republicans in the district are trying to beat so that they can recapture the longtime GOP seat. We hardly imagine that the GOP activists in LD11 will take kindly to this news.
GOP Leadership Races Loom Large In 2010 Primaries
While GOP legislative leadership positions will not be elected until November, several primaries are already over as candidates are running unopposed in many districts, so campaigning has already begun for leadership positions in the 50th Legislature. Here is a quick look at ongoing and potential matchups.
ARIZONA STATE SENATE:
The main theme here is turnover. Due to resignations and term limits, 10 of the original 18 Republican Senators are not returning to the body.
PRESIDENT – Sen. Russell Pearce will be running, as will Sen. Steve Pierce. Also sounding out legislators about support is current Rep. Steve Yarbrough who is running for the Senate. It is unlikely that Yarbrough will win, after all he will be a freshman in the Senate and moving directly into the office of the President would be most unusual. Former House Speaker Jim Weiers attempted that move and failed, and he failed while he was the powerful Speaker of the House. Additionally, would the entire Senate want to be stuck behind a President with eight years of service left? It would tell the entire body that they will never be President. That means its Pearce versus Pierce, and while the initial advantage goes to Pearce, several right versus left primaries will need to be resolved before either can claim victory.
MAJORITY LEADER/MAJORITY WHIP – These two fields have yet to solidify, but Capitol observers expect to see Senators Frank Antenori, Al Melvin, and possibly Sylvia Allen to run for one position or the other. Allen has a tough primary in front of her with Rep. Bill Konopnicki, but could be in a very strong position if she prevails. Antenori would be an energetic leader while Melvin is able to work well with caucus members across the ideological spectrum, an important characteristic that pretty much rules out Senator Ron Gould (we’re kidding here, mostly, as Gould as not actually been mentioned for any leadership race.)
ARIZONA STATE HOUSE:
14 of the original 35 Republican House members will not be returning, yet at least one of the races will feature familiar faces.
SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE – A rematch of the 2008 race between former Speaker Jim Weiers and current Speaker Kirk Adams is on tap. The 2008 race was close, and the outcome of this race will likely be determined on August 24th when the primaries are settled.
MAJORITY LEADER – Right now, its Rep. Andy Tobin’s job to lose, although Rep. Laurin Hendrix could be a real challenge if he is re-elected out of a crowded primary field that also includes former State Rep. Eddie Farnsworth.
MAJORITY WHIP – Representatives Russ Jones, Debbie Lesko, and Steve Montenegro are the three names being bandied about most at this time. Each would bring an element of diversity to the leadership team, and none can really claim a lead at this time. Each has a general election contest (Lesko also faces a primary) that they would be small favorites to win, so if you have to bet, put your money on Montenegro. He has benefited from a large amount of national media exposure resulting from his transparency bill, the ban on race-based preferences (co-authored with Sen. Pearce) that will be on November’s ballot, and SB1070. So he is a proven commodity in terms of dealing with the media and he can do so in English and Spanish, no small thing in a state like Arizona.
Leggo My Logo
Former NFL player and failed 2008 LD6 State House candidate Tony Bouie has officially kicked off his new 2010 State Senate campaign in LD4. Certainly no stranger to controversy, Bouie’s latest effort features a logo that seems very familiar to Capitol observers. Maybe its the fact that the Super Bowl is just around the corner? In any case, we’ll be curious to see if the NFL cares about its copyright being used in a political campaign?
Get Ready For A Rowdy State GOP Meeting This Saturday!
Democrats are in disarray, Republicans are making gains nationwide, poll numbers are improving, and generic ballot polls show Republicans poised to make big gains in 2010. With pickup opportunities in CD1, CD5, and CD8 here in Arizona, Saturday’s AZGOP Annual Meeting should be a great time for all.
Or not.
It seems someone isn’t happy with the state of things and is looking to hijack the meeting and maybe the entire Party this weekend. Gila Courier has coverage of a letter that started landing in PC mailboxes and the interesting tale behind it. Others have been warning about the possibility that McCain supporters may make a move to remove State Party Chairman Randy Pullen so that they can take over the party apparatus in advance of the GOP primary against JD Hayworth.
It should be a VERY interesting time for all in attendance.
Davis Picks Up Arpaio Endorsement In LD11 Race
Rich Davis
GOP Senate candidate Rich Davis has picked up the endorsement of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio in the race to fill the seat being vacated by the term-limited Barbara Leff. The endorsement is considered a major coup for Republican candidates given the Sheriff’s high approval numbers among the GOP faithful. Davis has also reportedly continued to raise money at a healthy pace after banking more than $50,000 in the campaign’s first three months. With a possible GOP primary and then a spirited general election after that, Davis will need all the money and support he can get, but the Arpaio endorsement has to be considered an important step towards winning this fall.
If You Can Raise Money At Christmas…?
Most fundraisers aren’t even returning calls, and candidates and incumbent legislators with events scheduled for January have stopped making calls, as raising money during Christmas week is all but impossible for most. Not all, just most apparently, since LD11 Senate candidate Rich Davis is a couple of days from the end of his $10,000 in 10 days campaign. You can follow his progress here, but we’re going to admit to being pretty impressed by a non-incumbent being able to raise those sorts of dollars this close to the holidays. After all, most donors are trying to save their money to buy their kids the G.I. Joe dolls with the kung-fu grip. If you don’t believe us, just ask Billy Ray.
Davis has been preparing for a primary that will exceed $100,000 and possibly an expensive general election after that. So he’ll need to show strength in his January financial reports if he wants to attract more attention and support. Anything less than $30,000 will send a bad message and encourage a primary challenge. State Rep. Adam Driggs is still seriously considering a run for the Senate seat and had a reported fundraising haul of more than $30,000 from his Buzz Aldrin event, so Davis will have to keep it close, or Driggs may well give up his committee chairmanship and jump into the primary.
Tony Bouie Files For LD4 Senate Race
Capitol observers had thought the LD4 Senate race was going to get a lot quieter after State Representative Tom Boone announced that he would not be running in the GOP primary against former State Senator Scott Bundgaard. Well it might be time for them to get their ear protection ready, because 2008 LD6 State House candidate Tony Bouie, who moved to LD4 and had filed to run for the State House in LD4, changed his committee paperwork yesterday and is now running for the State Senate.
Bouie’s assumption would appear to be that a House race against both State Rep Judy Burges and current State Sen Jack Harper is too tough, and that the Senate race represents a better chance to win. Of course, he had originally filed to run for the House, so we can’t be sure what has changed. It is likely that the move was triggered solely by Boone’s decision. Regardless of the reason(s) for the move, it guarantees voters will be treated to another entertaining and volatile race, as voters from LD6 can attest to.
A third candidate, Shawn Kohner, is also filed for the race.
Was Sen. Gould Willing To Support Gov. Brewer’s Sales Tax Increase?
According to media reports, Senator Ron Gould says that he would have supported the ballot referral of a three-year increase in the sales tax in exchange for a three-year phase out of the state income tax. We have to admit, we honestly had no idea. So much has been made of the Senator’s absolute refusal to support any increase in taxes and so much coverage in the media and on the blogs was focused on the single-minded purity of his votes against it, that we never even considered the possibility that he would vote to refer Brewer’s tax hike to the ballot.
If what the Senator is saying is true then much of his absolute language regarding the referral must be taken with a rather large grain of salt. If his offer was genuine, then he was in fact willing to vote to refer the sales tax increase to the ballot, so all of his vocal and rather scathing critiques of his fellow legislators ring somewhat hollow. On the other hand, if he was merely tweaking the Senate President by asking for something so out of reach that he knew in advance he could not get it, then his protestations at this point that he was somehow reasonable and amenable to a deal are likely disingenuous at best.
Naturally, any insistence on eliminating the state income tax over three years would have make the entire deal unworkable because it would have dramatically increased the state’s deficit, leaving the Legislature farther from the solution instead of closer to it. But one assumes that Gould’s rational for supporting such a package would have been that a) the tax referral could always be voted down, and b) the size of the tax cuts would have been greater than the sales tax increase, and they would have lasted long after the sales tax increase had ended. Ironically, the same arguments were made for the conservative package that Gould voted against. It had hundreds of millions of dollars in tax cuts for individuals and businesses, as well as property tax cuts, all to boost the economy. And it cut more in taxes than the sales tax increase would have raised, assuming it would even pass.
What is clear is that Senator Gould has nothing good to say about any Republicans who would have exchanged larger, lasting tax cuts, for a referral of a shorter, smaller tax increase. He has even been quoted as saying “If Republicans do a tax increase, our party’s dead. The voters will throw us out if we do a tax increase.” The fact that he proposed to make the very same kind of deal is more than just curious, even to seasoned Capitol observers that have grown accustomed to the public posturing of politicians.
Gould Stripped of Committee Chairmanship
Okay, so there isn’t much to talk about at the Capitol these days, so forgive us if we’re all abuzz at the news that Senate President Bob Burns has taken away Senator Ron Gould’s committee chairmanship. According to a “tweet” from Gould, “President Burns just took away my comittee chairmanship over my NO vote on the TAX HIKE. Sad day for rank & file republicans.”
The move was not entirely unexpected, as Gould is routinely a reliable vote against the Republican budgets and was, along with Senator Pamela Gorman, the holdouts that prevented the budget bill from passing. The bill, which contained spending cuts and tax cuts as well, also permitted a public vote on a proposed three-year 1-cent increase in the sales tax. That was a deal breaker for Gould and Gorman who refused to support the bill, in spite of the laundry list of conservative groups and individuals lined up in support of it. In fairness, longtime liberal lioness Senator Carolyn Allen also refused to support the bill, but that was because it had too many spending cuts and tax cuts in it and she felt it was far too conservative to support. Gorman ended up resigning her position as Whip before she could be replaced and now Gould finds himself without a committee.
People we have spoken to do not expect the move to accomplish very much. ”Gould just shows up, votes no, picks up his paycheck and goes home. That isn’t going to change now” said one Capitol politico. Another pointed out that President Burns had no reason to believe that Gould was ever going to get on the same page as the Republican majority, so while he might not have anything to gain, he also had nothing to lose by making this move.
It will be interesting to see how this move impacts Gould in his own district. While his votes often earn him applause at GOP gatherings, he has been an ineffective Senator in terms of getting his own bills passed, and he now finds his own power further diminished with the loss of the Chairmanship.
The last time this happened was when Representatives O’Halleran and Hershberger were stripped of their chairmanships for blocking a Republican budget. Each survived one more term before being beaten in a primary. Gould has one term remaining in the Senate, is running for office, and has no declared opposition at this time.
Is Konopnicki polling in CD1 or LD5?
Several readers have alerted us to a telephone poll that asks people their opinions on a hypothetical matchup between State Rep. Bill Konopnicki and Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick. It then goes on for a while about the state’s budget before asking who the callers would favor in a hypothetical matchup between Konopnicki and State Senator Sylvia Allen. If true, it sounds like Konopnicki is still trying to decide which race to run.
Capitol observers think that his left-of-center fiscal voting record is a better fit for a general election in CD1 than a primary election in LD5, noting that former Congressman Rick Renzi had a conservative voting record on social issues while bringing home the pork to the district. By comparison, Allen has already beaten Konopnicki among party insiders when she got appointed to fill the late Senator Jake Flake’s seat, and she out-polled Konopnicki in the 2008 primaries, getting 10,205 votes to his 9,375 votes, in spite of his significantly longer service.
Democrat Bloggers Trying To Encourage GOP Primary?
It what is best described as a case of wishful thinking, both Tedski over at Rum, Romanism and Rebellion, and David Safier at My Gay Arizona (CAUTION: Lots of gay cruise ads on this page) are playing up the notion that State Representative Vic Williams is gearing up for a primary challenge to State Senator Al Melvin down in LD26. Gila Courier has already contacted Williams and he has dismissed the rumor as pure nonsense, but should the GOP be encouraged that the hard left in Arizona is trying to encourage such an event? We think so.
Melvin ran in 2006 and won the primary, besting Sen. Toni Hellon, but then he lost by several hundred votes in the general election. In 2008 he ran again, and had to first beat Rep. Pete Hershberger in another rough primary, before winning and recapturing the seat for the GOP in the general election. Unable to find another candidate, the Democrats are again running Cheryl “Tax the Golf Carts” Cage against Melvin, but given that she lost to him in a good year for Democrats after Melvin endured back-to-back bruising primaries, do the Democrats really expect to win the race in 2010′s political environment, especially with Melvin enjoying a more unified GOP supporting his effort? Not likely.
Thus the rumor mongering and wishful thinking from Tedski and Safier. From what we hear, LD26 Democrats need to be far more worried about protecting Rep. Nancy Young Wright than wasting their time and money on Cage. Republicans already have a strong challenger in that race, who is getting good reviews from everyone in the local GOP.
Senator Al Melvin Has Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
Al Melvin, the first-term senator from LD26, has announced he has Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. He made the announcement because the treatments he is receiving are expected to cause considerable hair loss and he wanted to be sure that people knew the reason for it.
“I don’t have a great deal of hair”, said Melvin, adding “so those that I do have are like members of my family. I’ve known them for so long and I’ll be sad to see them go, particularly with winter approaching.”
On a more serious note, Melvin said that he had been lucky that the detection was fairly early, allowing the doctors to treat the disease in ample time, dramatically increasing his odds of a full recovery.
“There are two types of Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma one that is slow developing but which is nearly impossible to eliminate, and the other that is faster growing but that can be cured. Fortunately, I have the second, so we can cure it and I can go on with my life.”
“According to the National Cancer Institute, three of the risk factors for developing NHL are being “older, male or white”, so I guess my goose was cooked from the get-go!”
Melvin said that the disease had not interfered with his work and he did not anticipate any problems. “I haven’t been sick or had any ill effects from it, and the doctors have said that I should be fine during and after the treatments. ”
On a related point, Fred Thompson, in his 2008 bid for the White House, announced that he had NH Lymphoma. His doctor, like Melvin’s, encouraged him to continue his public service and he continued with his presidential campaign.
Currently, Melvin is the vice-chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee and also serves on the Public Safety and Human Services Committee and the Veterans and Military Affairs Committee. He has also been serving as the Senate co-chairman of the Legislative Ad Hoc Committee on Energy and Water Development, which has been meeting regularly while the Legislature is out of session.
Melvin also plans on speaking with Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu to seek out advice on maintaining and polishing his new head.
(h/t Gila Courier)
Revolving Door in LD5 as Candidates Get Set for 2010
With State Representative Bill Konopnicki term-limited out of the State House of Representatives and State Representative Jack Brown appearing to be ready for retirement, its a three-ring circus for the 2 House seats in LD5. Republican State Senator Sylvia Allen is firmly established on the Senate side, and the GOP has additional reasons to be happy, because LD5 is one of two districts where the voter registration numbers continue to move dramatically towards the GOP. Republicans had traditionally had success getting elected in the district (Jake Flake was the Senator before Allen) with support from conservative rural Democrats, but many of them have been re-registering as Republicans, converting a deficit of more than 5,000 voters into a new GOP majority.
Brenda Barton
One solid Republican candidate is Brenda Barton who resides in Graham County. She and her husband have been involved in the Arizona Republican Party for years and Barton has deep roots in the district. According to her bio, she is a 5th generation Arizonan, which can pay big dividends in districts where everyone seems to know everyone else. Barton has also been endorsed by Sen. Sylvia Allen, which is a major boost given that Allen makes her home in Navajo County, which is the most-populated of the LD5 counties. Two Democrats have filed: Bill Shumway and David Rodriguez, but Rodriguez has filed just a $500 threshold committee and may not stay in the race. There is also a great deal of speculation that the Democrats in the district will be trying to get Jack Brown’s son to run, hoping that a familiar last name will give them a chance to hang on to a seat there.
Becky Nutt
Where is gets strange is on the Republican side where Bruce Olsen filed to run, then later dropped out in order to change his registration to Libertarian and run for Governor. The third GOP candidate was Becky Nutt, who recently announced at the Goldwater Institute dinner that she was dropping out of the race because she was 23 days short of the residency requirement. Nutt’s cell phone number had a Colorado area code while her most recent address appeared to be San Marcos, Texas. Her husband Richard ran for County Supervisor in Greenlee County as a Democrat in 1998, finishing 4th in the field of four, before apparently moving to Colorado.
GOP county leaders are looking for a solid running-mate for Allen and Barton that will help the Republican Party realize its longstanding ambition of securing all three LD5 legislative seats. Provided they are successful over the next few months, there is every reason to believe that the GOP will pickup a State House seat in this newest of Republican majority districts.
Rally at State Capitol for Pearce’s Proposals Draws Major Crowd, VIPs
(Left to Right) Rep. Vic Williams, Sen. Russell Pearce, Rep. Sam Crump, LD11 Senate Candidate Rich Davis, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, Rep. Jerry Weiers, JD Hayworth, Sen. Thayer Verschoor, County Attorney Andrew Thomas, Sen. John Huppenthal
Yesterday’s press conference at the State Capitol drew 200+ people in support of State Senator Russell Pearce’s efforts to strengthen immigration enforcement. Several organizations were represented, including the Phoenix Law Enforcement Association, and many of the more than 40 legislators supporting the effort were also in attendance. Also participating in the press conference were former Congressman and KFYI host JD Hayworth, County Attorney Andrew Thomas, and Sheriff Joe Arpaio.
Pearce unveiled legislation at the press conference that would crack down on illegal immigration in various ways. The three components of the bill are:
1. Outlawing sanctuary city policies by prohibiting cities and towns in Arizona from limiting or restricting the enforcement of federal immigration laws.
2. Making it a Class 1 misdemeanor for an illegal alien to enter into or be on any public or private land in Arizona if they are in violation of federal immigration law. The charge is elevated to a Class 4 felony if someone is convicted, deported and then returns to Arizona. The charge would rise to a Class 2 felony if this person violates this section of the law while committing other crimes involving illegal drugs, weapons or terrorism.
3. Beefing up the state’s employer sanctions law by giving civil subpoena power to prosecuting agencies, enabling them to question witnesses and obtained needed documentation. It is the same type of authority used by the Arizona Insurance Department and the Department of Liquor License and Control, and it will give prosecutors the ability to more efficiently and more quickly investigate claims.
Pearce is hoping for a referral from the Legislature that would put these items on the ballot. Failing that, he will be pursuing them as voter-initiatives.
Arizona’s Next-Gen Maverick Strikes Again
Rep. Jeff Flake was one of seven Republicans who voted to formally rebuke Rep. Joe Wilson for his “You Lie!” ourburst during President Obama’s address to Congress. Wilson had already apologized to both the President and the Vice-President and they had accepted his apologies, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went along with the most liberal elements of the Democrat caucus and allowed the House to move against Wilson anyway.
Republican leader Rep. John Boehner had it right when he described it as “a witch hunt” and a “partisan stunt that the American people are not going to respect.” The rest of Arizona’s GOP delegation voted with Wilson and were even joined by Democrat Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. Flake’s YES vote was echoed by the rest of the Arizona Democrat delegation. To put it even further into perspective, even Rep. Barney Frank didn’t vote YES.