Not Exactly.

Jim Ogsbury, a DC lobbyist with Arizona connections is planning to run in the Republican Primary for AZ-05. According to Ogsbury’s own bio on the Triadvocates website, Ogsbury has spent “fifteen years inside the Capital Beltway.”

For those of you who don’t know much about Ogsbury – and why would you, he has spent the last 15 years in Washington DC. Ogsbury is a DC lobbyist whose self-acknowledged specialty is getting pork for his clients.

Now let’s rewind to the 2006 election. JD Hayworth, a good man, and a good conservative, came under withering attacks by Harry Mitchell and the DCCC for among other things, being too close to lobbyists, being too much of a DC insider who had forgotten his roots, and being part of the Republican culture of pork barrel spending in Congress.

Well at least the Democrats won’t have to reinvent the wheel if Ogsbury is the nominee.

I am somewhat amused by Greg Patterson’s constant pimping over at Espresso Pundit of Corporation Commissioner Bill Mundell as a good candidate for Attorney General. I don’t know about you, but I wonder what exactly does Patterson see in Mundell that makes him think that Mundell is such a strong candidate in a Republican Primary for AG?

Consider the facts.

First, Mundell is pro-choice. Notwithstanding the beliefs of some liberal Republicans, this is not exactly a position of strength in GOP primaries. Second, Mundell’s record on the Corporation Commission ain’t exactly stellar from a conservative perspective, with the most egregious example being the fact that Mundell helped push through horribly anti-free market mandates on renewable energy. Finally, in what perhaps is the best indicator that Patterson is probably spending a little too much time down at the Corporation Commission, is Patterson’s insistence that being elected twice statewide as Corporation Commissioner translates in any real meaningful way to strength in a Republican Primary. Put simply, this assertion is laughable. If you don’t believe me, go ask a couple of your neighbors to name just one Corporation Commissioner.

I am sure Mundell is a good guy. But let’s face facts. When was the last time any member of the Corporation Commission moved up to any other statewide office of significance? The reality is that for most politicians, election to the Corporation Commission usually represents the end of the road in electoral politics, not a jumping off point.

From the Politico

Money Figures Trouble For McCain, GOP

From the Arizona Republic

Sen. McCain loses ground vs. rivals in fundraising

From the Arizona Daily Star

McCain trails GOP rivals in fundraising

From Time Magazine

Can McCain Solve His Money Problem?

We could go on forever, but you get the point. McCain’s failure to meet expectations on fundraising has quickly changed the perception about the McCain campaign from one of “leading contender” to one of “a campaign with problems.”

Even more problematic for McCain will be when the cash on hand numbers come in. It looks like a good chunk of McCain’s money came from small donations. This is a good thing for a campaign long term, but it tends to hurt your cash on hand numbers because raising small donations cost more money. I know in the PoliticalHack household, Mrs. PoliticalHack received upwards of ten phone calls from McCain solicitors in the last two weeks trying to get a donation. This costs a lot of money.

Of course this doesn’t take into account the perceived high burn rate that the McCain campaign is reported to have.

April 15th (the day FEC reports become public) should be interesting for McCain.

Update: In 1999 when McCain first ran for President, his burn rate during the same period was 85% of money raised that quarter.  If McCain has the same burn rate this time around then he will likely report having less than $2 million cash on hand.  Ouch!

McCain’s campaign just released a statement saying that his campaign will report raising over $12.5 million this quarter which will put him in third place behind Romney at $23 million raised and Giuliani at around $15 million raised.

What does this all mean? First off this isn’t a good sign for the McCain campaign. Here is a guy who was considered the frontrunner with all of the fundraising connections and insitutional support and yet he is going to finish in third place this quarter. Not good.

At this point in a race for President, perception means everything. It is vital to pick up key supporters across the country, important to shape media coverage, and important to convince donors across the country to give to your campaign.

Having McCain finish third behind Romney and Giuliani is all but guaranteed to generate a series of stories questioning the strength of his campaign and his chances of winning. McCain’s numbers will also give rise again to the murmurs in political circles that McCain chances of winning the GOP nomination are decreasing by the day.

One has to wonder what’s going on in McCain’s camp. By all accounts he has a fairly strong and experienced team who knew that putting up a good number in the first quarter was vital to the campaign. Now they will try to spin it by saying it’s not that important, but you know that within the McCain brain trust, people are worried.

The reality for McCain is that his fundraising numbers are a symptom of what’s wrong with McCain ’08. There just isn’t a whole lot of enthusiasm among Republicans for McCain. He has alienated conservatives with stands on any number of issues, and his attempts to placate conservatives have had the effect of turning off McCain’s real base in the party – liberal and moderate Republicans.

So, in effect, McCain really has no substantive base within the party to run on. It looks like traditional Republican donors (read: big donors) have picked up on this and we are seeing the effect of that in McCain’s numbers.

In the latest installment of John McCain’s quixotic and shameless attempt to make nice with conservatives, McCain was asked by a reporter from Pat Robertson’s CBN about the Club for Growth. His response?

“So I’m not sure what the Club for Growth and I have really in common”

Apparently the Club for Growth agrees.

Word from the Romney camp today and Fox News is that Sheriff Joe Arpaio has signed on as chairman of the Romney campaign in Arizona. Clearly the Arpaio endorsement a nice get for Romney, but let’s be honest here. As much as McCain is disdained by conservatives in Arizona, he still wins the state – easily.

As for Romney, he seems to have his own problems with conservatives as they begin to realize that Romney’s words don’t really match his record on either social or fiscal issues. Romney’s flip-flopping on important issues apparently has even his own consultants concerned.

And rightfully so. We have all heard about him flip-flopping on gay and abortion issues, but Romney has also changed his position on 2nd Amendment issues and tax cuts. The question conservatives will have to ask is “who is the real Mitt Romney?”

Is it the politician running for President who says he is pro-life, pro-traditional values, pro-tax cut, and pro-gun? Is it the candidate for Senate who was pro-choice, pro-gay rights, and said he “didn’t line up with the views of the NRA?” Or is it the governor of Massachusetts who pushed through universal health care, and opposed President Bush’s tax cuts?

I guess for Mitt Romney it depends on what office he is running for.