As my analysis below will show, conservatives had some victories and suffered some losses. I think, in Arizona, the TEA Party was either too hyped or not as effective as it could have been. While some say that Arizona loves its incumbents (and that’s why some ratings groups like NFIB, RTL and NRA endorsed incumbents over challengers with higher scores), some newcomer candidates ran ineffective campaigns and that may be more to blame than a love of incumbency. While it may be a sign of becoming inured in “the system,” newcomers, if they want to win, simply have to learn how to campaign and do so effectively.

LD 1
The LD 1 Senate race was not contested, so Steve Pierce is our nominee. By all accounts, Mr. Pierce will be one of two major Senate President candidates. Russell Pearce being his opponent. On election night, I overheard Republican Party Executive Director Brett Mecum tell Republican Party Chairman Randy Pullen say that he believed that Russell Pearce had the votes to become Senate President. Since then, I believe I’ve seen one news article stating that Russell Pearce does not have the votes necessary. If Steve Pierce wins, we can expect the status quo to be maintained. He was one of the sponsors of the tax increase.

House Whip Andy Tobin won re-election. Karen Fann, a candidate Mr. Tobin recruited, beat Noel Campbell by about 3% or 1,400 votes. I understand that Mr. Campbell was the most conservative candidate in the race, but ran a lackluster campaign. Ms. Fann replaces Lucy Mason who was termed out. I can’t say I’m sad to see Ms. Mason go. She has been far less than an icon of conservatism. I can only hope that Ms. Fann votes to the right of Ms. Mason but I’m not too hopeful since Keith Sipmann labeled her as a Democrat in Disguise on his blog and she was one of the Republicans fundraising for Democrats at the Twelve in `10 fundraiser. As for the Whip, as I stated when I had him on Grassroots Interviews, I was disappointed that House leadership even allowed Prop. 100 on the floor. Mr. Tobin was gracious enough to concede that it was a fair criticism. When I went back to look at Mr. Tobin’s scores from Goldwater Institute, they were all lackluster. He scores about as well as Mason, Quelland, Reagan, Konopnicki, and Crandall and in the 2010 Goldwater scores, he’s almost always at the bottom among Republicans. I don’t think Mr. Tobin belongs in the conservative camp with scores like those and I have no understanding of how he got a PAChyderm endorsement.

Noel Campbell’s loss meant that conservatives didn’t get the optimal results.

LD 3
Doris Goodale and Nancy McLain won re-election to their House seats. Ray Cullsion was the only challenger. Ms. McLain’s 2009 Goldwater scores look like she does about as well as Driggs or Barto in the House. She scored well to the right of her seat-mate Goodale. While Ms. Goodale and Ms. McLain CLAIM they were anti-Prop. 100, they BOTH voted for it in the state legislature. Considering they don’t score well and they assured you’d suffer higher taxes, they should have been held accountable. I would have been willing to roll the dice on Cullison.

Looking at Goodale’s and McLain’s scores from Goldwater, I simply can’t call the House races a win for conservatives. McLain scores about as well as Nancy Barto and Goodale scores with Mason and Reagan. What LD 3 needs is clones of Ron Gould for the House seats.

LD 4
Scott Bundgaard won the Senate nomination rather handily, earning three times as many votes as either Tony Bouie or Shawn Kohner. Bouie had run for the House in LD 6 in 2008 and lost after being tagged as a moderate despite endorsements from Gorman, Shadegg, and Mike Pence. Kohner is a political newcomer and seems by all accounts a rather conservative guy. Scott has some detractors who will point out his flaws, but be that as it may, the voters chose him and this sets up an interesting situation in the legislature because Jack Harper and Judy Burges got 40% of the vote each and the others fought over the remaining 20%. Harper and Burges score extremely well by most conservative organizations, but with the difficulties between Bundgaard and Harper, one has to ask, are they going to kill each other’s bills or are they going to work together to advance the cause of conservatism no matter who might be the sponsor of a bill? Despite their flaws I actually like both Scott and Jack. I truly hope they both will not allow their personal differences get in the way of voting conservatively, even if one or the other is a sponsor or co-sponsor of a bill. I really want to call this a win for conservatives.

LD 5
Sylvia Allen beat the poster boy for RINO Republicans in the House Bill Konopnicki 55% to 44%. Konopnicki is disgusting and a prime example of everything that is wrong with moderates because he not only was the leader of the Sanctuary Six but he always scores about dead last among Republicans by conservative rating organizations. Let me ask, if conservatives are so horrid, why campaign as one? Konopnicki did his best to cast himself as the conservative in this race. I say if you’re a moderate, you should sing it loud and proud, not lie to the electorate. The truth is that the conventional wisdom demands that you run to the right in a Republican primary and Konopnicki wanted power so bad he’d lie, lie, lie just to get elected. I couldn’t be more thankful that LD 5 rejected the Burger Baron.

In the House races, Brenda Barton and Chester Crandell, who ran as a team with Sylvia Allen, defeated Konopnicki’s hand-picked candidate, Keith Alexander. LD 5 was an unmitigated win for conservatives since the most conservative candidates won. This is one of the few races where money didn’t matter as much. Konopnicki outspent Sylvia Allen by a ton.

LD 6
Lori Klein beat incumbent David Braswell by almost a 60-40 split. Braswell has drawn a ton of fire for being a moderate, yet his 2010 Goldwater scores were surprisingly high. He tied for 4th in the Senate on Education issues with Jack Harper. However, Braswell drew some fire for voting against a school choice bill, but Braswell defended the vote because the bill was too narrow and didn’t apply to all schools equally. On constitutional government issues, he tied for 5th with Thayer Verschoor. On economic regulation issues, he tied for 4th with Sylvia Allen. However, Mr. Braswell’s answer to me on meddling in the economy sounded an awful lot like he favored big government meddling in the economy with special breaks for business rather than an even low tax, low regulation, free market regime. On taxation and budgeting issues he tied for 4th with Jack Harper and Thayer Verschoor. Be that as it may, it is my understanding that the Maricopa Board of Supervisors demanded that their appointees support Prop. 100. His answers on Prop. 100 showed he wanted it both ways: he claimed he didn’t support it, but he supported the voters’ right to decide. Overall, Braswell scored as the 5th most conservative Senator and he beat out Thayer Verschoor. Now that Lori has defeated David, she’ll have to score very well with Goldwater to avoid an unfavorable comparison. I truly wish Lori the best of luck and I hope she makes Andy Biggs look like a communist by comparison.

Ms. Klein ran as a team with Carl Seel and David Fitzgerald. Unfortunately, Amanda Reeve, an incumbent moderate, took the greatest percentage of the vote. Reeve may have scored well with Goldwater on Education issues, but her votes quickly fall off on other issues. She was the lowest scoring member in LD 6 and she helped raise money for Democrats at the Twelve in `10 fundraiser. One might attribute her win to having the money to paper the district with mailers. By some accounts, she sent almost as many mail pieces as did Ben Quayle. Carl Seel had the second highest vote total in the House race, narrowly edging out his teammate David Fitzgerald. LD 6’s voters made a poor choice in Reeve. Amanda Reeve will continue to vote at cross purposes with Carl Seel.

LD 7
LD 7’s elections were almost a total disaster. “Sanctuary Six” Nancy Barto won with about 46% of the vote, almost half, and she was 13 points ahead of her closest rival, Ray Barnes. What’s really sad is that TEA Party candidate Brad Buch came in dead last…even behind the guy who was found to have forged his $5 qualifying contributions, Bob Green. In his defense, Mr. Buch was a newcomer and wasn’t knowledgeable about campaigning. I voted for Mr. Buch even though I never expected him to win. Why? Because he was the conservative and the other choices either weren’t palatable or I was skeptical of.

I believe name ID helped David Burnell Smith garner the most votes in the LD 7 House race. Despite Howard Levine’s write up of the LD 7 candidates, I don’t believe Mr. Smith was the most conservative candidate, probably in the top three, but not the most conservative. Other news articles showed Mr. Smith had some odd policy positions for a Republican, namely vilifying insurance companies and opposing tort reform. Be that as it may, with Nancy Barto’s win and Democrat in Disguise Heather Carter winning the other nomination, David Smith will be the lone conservative knight in LD 7. I was thoroughly disgusted that the two most conservative candidates (to my mind) came in 2nd and 3rd to last. Mike Farrar earned only 11% of the vote and Howard Sprague earned only 9% of the vote.

With Barto and Carter winning, the two most liberal candidates in their respective races, LD 7 has pretty much gone moderate…as if it already wasn’t. The one ray of hope was David Smith’s win. Let’s hope David can keep Nancy and Heather from malfing things up too bad.

LD 8
While LD 8’s voters had no choices in the Senate race, they were stuck with the liberal Michele Reagan who raises money for Democrats, they made some pretty conservative choices in the House races. Incumbent conservative John Kavanagh garnered about 40% while conservative Michelle Ugenti came in second with 21% of the vote. While I’m sure the soon-to-be Sen. Reagan will be voting at cross-purposes with Rep. Kavanagh and Ugenti, at least conservatives got one of the most conservative results it could have gotten in this district.

LD 9
Incumbent Rep. Debbie Lesko won re-election with 45% of the vote. Rick Gray came in second, and won nomination with 28% of the vote. If I’m not mistaken, Diane Douglas, who came in 3rd with 25% of the vote was heavily involved in PAChyderm Coalition and had their endorsement. I was leery of Rick Gray when he refused to come on Grassroots Interviews but he states in the 2010 Cap Times Primary Guide that he believes in the Austrian School of economics which should mark him as a free marketer. Considering Lesko not only endorsed McCain (before Hayworth got in the race) AND she voted FOR the tax increase, she should have been held accountable. Lesko failed to garner an Arpaio endorsement, but Douglas and Gray did. I can’t call this as a win for the conservatives since Diane lost.

LD 10
Jim Weiers was the biggest vote getter in the House with about 34% of the vote and Kimberly Yee got the second nomination with 32% of the vote. There’s no doubt that tremendous name ID helped Jim Weiers win. Weiers and Yee had PAChyderm Coalition endorsements. I can’t say I’m sad to see that “Sanctuary Six” Doug Quelland lost. Quelland has also had troubles with the Clean Elections Commission and he has been removed from office before. I can’t say that history helped him. Bill Adams supported Prop. 100 and wanted to sound like he’s pro-Life when he’s not. This was a win for conservatives because the best candidates won. Let’s just hope Yee and Weiers can undo any damage Linda Gray might do in the Senate. Linda Gray is now notoriously pro tax after SPONSORING Prop. 10 and opposing Prop. 13.

LD 11
LD 11 was just as big a disaster as LD 7. In the Senate race, liberal incumbent Rep. Adam Driggs successfully switched houses with about 49% of the vote. Name ID and money meant a lot in this race. Driggs was one of the liberals who helped fundraise for Democrats in the Twelve in `10 fundraiser put on by Greater Phoenix Leadership, a group that supports big government meddling in the economy and more government in education. PAChyderm endorsed Senate candidate Rich Davis came in second and therefore did not earn a nomination, with 40% of the vote.

Conservatives also didn’t get the optimal results in LD 11’s House races. Eric West and Dusti Morris were the PAChyderm Coalition endorsed candidates. However, Dusti dropped out of the race early. Shawnna Bolick would have also been a superlative candidate. While Eric West earned one of the two nominations with 22% of the vote, Kate Brophy McGee, a supporter of big government and tax increases earned 31% of the vote. Shawnna Bolick came in third with 19%, Bev Kraft, the wife of former legislator James Kraft who lied about being related to the Kraft Foods family came in fourth with 17%.

Again, these were not optimal results for conservatives. The dream results would have been Davis in the Senate and Eric West and Shawnna Bolick in the House. As in LD 7, conservatives got 1 out of 3.

LD 12
LD 12’s Senate race couldn’t have been a bigger disaster unless Democrat in Disguise Eve Nunez had won. Rather, the LD 12 voters chose absentee incumbent liberal John Nelson with 56% of the vote. Not only has Nelson consistently earned D’s and F’s from the Goldwater Institute for voting to regulate the economy, but some Democrats score as more free market than Nelson. He voted to increase your taxes and like the Sanctuary Six in the House, he wasn’t present to vote on HB 2280 in the Senate. He also helped raise money for liberal Republicans and Democrats at the Twelve in `10 fundraiser. If you want more information on what a liberal Nelson is, just take a look at the comparison piece on Clark Silver’s website in the lower right corner. There’s nothing Republican about Nelson. The ONLY conservative in the Senate race, Clark Silver, earned 25% of the vote. LD 12’s voters made a huge mistake.

LD 19
LD 19’s Senate race was a disaster for conservatives too. Conservatives had a decent candidate in James Molina, but he dropped out of the race towards the end. That meant the absentee liberal incumbent House member making a switch to the Senate got a free pass. Crandall is the ONLY Republican who missed more votes than John Nelson in 2009. He’s also another demonstrable liberal that campaigns as a conservative. Meanwhile, he was raising money for liberal Republicans and Democrats at the Twelve in `10 fundraiser.

Justin Olson was the only candidate endorsed by PAChyderm Coalition in the LD 19 House race. Luckily he got 36% of the vote. Speaker Adams got about 36% of the vote too. In going over the scores from Goldwater and other conservative rating organizations, I haven’t noticed Speaker Adams at the top of many lists. As Speaker, he also allowed the tax increase on the House floor. I think that was a huge failing. Be that as it may, the other “Republican” candidate in the race, Perkinson, earned 29% of the vote. He wasn’t strong enough on the tax increase and cited Crandall as one of his political influences. Thankfully, he didn’t win a nomination.

I’m not sure I can call this a win for conservatives since Molina dropped out of the Senate race. Granted, conservatives scored a single victory with Olson’s win and avoiding a Crandall clone in the House, but I’ve called other districts disasters when only one conservative won.

LD 20
Since Sen. Huppenthal ran for Superintendent of Public Instruction and Rep. McComish ran unopposed for Huppenthal’s Senate seat, that left two open House seats. The voters chose Jeff Dial with 48% of the vote and former legislator Bob Robson with 38% of the vote. It’s surprising that Dial beat a former legislator by 10%, especially when Dial, McComish and Robson ran as a team. One might expect their vote totals to be a little closer. I wasn’t blown away by Robson’s answers in the Cap Times 2010 Primary Guide on Prop. 100, his “other concerns” or his fiscal philosophy. Rather than giving a direct answer, he said the tax increase was a moot point. I couldn’t disagree more. Taxation has always been a key issue for Republicans and, as an office seeker, he OWES his potential constituents a direct answer. He also said he wanted to “maintain” education infrastructure. To me, it sounds like Mr. Robson wants to protect the education status quo. The status quo isn’t working and we need change, namely slapping down administrators’ wasteful spending, ignoring what the teachers’ union wants and focusing on spending on and the needs of the kids. Mr. Robson says he’s a fiscal conservative, but also a realist. To me, this is a red flag. It says, “I’m a fiscal conservative, except when I’m not.” Robson also got the endorsement of some police and fire groups and they don’t have a reputation for loving de minimis government. Looking at Robson’s past scores from Goldwater, they’re lackluster. This guy scored to the left of Sen. John Nelson some years. Perhaps there’s a reason why he got 10% fewer votes than Dial. Jeff Dial skipped ALL the issues questions in the Cap Times book, but submitted his 250 word piece to the CCEC. Not sure why that is. I’m guessing Jeff wanted voters to get information on him from his own website instead of the guides. The other candidate in the race, Christopher Tolino didn’t seem much different than Robson. Tolino, who got about 14% of the vote said he wanted to “provide incentives to make Arizona a business friendly environment.” Again, this sounds like headhunting, or picking winners and losers in the economy rather than letting the economy grow wild as the free market’s whims may grow it. At least Tolino gave a direct answer on Prop. 100.

A win for conservatives? I’d argue that that’s not the case with Robson as our nominee. In any case, LD 20 has a Democrat Rep in office, Rae Waters, and she’s seeking re-election. I’d rather see her gone than in office, but replacing her with a moderate like Robson makes me queasy.

LD 21
LD 21’s House nominations were good for conservatives. PAChyderm Coalition endorsees Tom Forese and J.D. Mesnard took 35% and 34% of the vote respectively while Democrat in Disguise (DID) Vanessa Whitener earned only 30%.

LD 22 House
LD 22 is an iconic conservative stronghold, so, the fact that DID Steve Urie earned a nomination with 20% of the vote is a severe disappointment. It’s also somewhat of a surprise that Urie was able to pick off incumbent Laurin Hendrx, but Hendrix has been criticized for skipping District meetings and failing to be available to his constituents. Hopefully, Mr. Hendrix’ lesson will be learned by ALL state legislators. Conservative leviathan Eddie Farnsworth earned the other nomination with 34% of the vote, the largest share. Another disappointment in the LD 22 House primaries is that conservatives Kelly Townsend and Bret Petillo earned so few votes. They earned 11% and 7% respectively. Mr. Howell, the other DID running for a nomination, earned only 8%. In such a conservative district, Howell and Urie should have come in last, not Petillo. Not living in the district, my only guess as to how Mr. Urie won a nomination is that he was very good at telling his people to one-shot him while conservatives spread their votes across the other candidates.

LD 23
LD 23’s Senate race was a total win for conservatives. Steve Smith won by almost a 3-1 margin over Matt Byers. Steve had Joe Arpaio’s endorsement and is a straightforward, no non-sense kind of guy. When Steve came on Grassroots Interviews, I was thoroughly impressed with him. I just hope that in this District that has about a 4% Democrat registration advantage that Steve Smith can pick off Rebecca Rios. HOWEVER, only 11K voters voted for Rios whereas almost 16K voted for the Republican candidates. I believe that if Steve campaigns to the Independents and PNDs that are trending Republican these days, he MIGHT be able to defeat her. She has tremendous name ID. I wish him the best of luck since we need people like Steve in the legislature.

LD 26
In LD 26, conservatives got just about the best results they could have hoped for. The voters re-nominated Vic Williams with 41% of the vote and gave conservative Terri Proud 32% of the vote while defeating Democrat in Disguise Wade McLean with only 27% of the vote. Williams is no conservative, but with McLean being described by some as a DID, I’m happy to take Williams over McLean. Now, LD 26 is split in the House with 1 Democrat holding a seat and she’s seeking re-election. I hope the Republicans, independents, PNDs and Libertarians turn out in force and elect Proud and Williams and send the Democrat Nancy Young Wright home.

LD 30
Sen. Frank Antenori’s defeat of the demonstrably liberal Marian McClure by a 2-1 margin is the best conservatives could have hoped for in LD 30’s Senate race considering the candidates in the race.

In the House races, LD 30’s voters nominated incumbents David Gowan and Ted Vogt with 34% and 28% of the vote respectively. Luckily, they were wise enough to send DID Doug Sposito to defeat with 12% of the vote and a third place finish. Gowan and Vogt got B’s overall from Goldwater, so there’s room for them to move to the right. There may have been more conservative candidates in this race. Kurt Knurr, who got 10% of the vote and came in 4th styled himself as a radical conservative. Parralee Schneider got 9% of the vote. She says she’s a grassroots conservative, but then says she favors “business friendly legislation.” If she means cutting taxes and regulation across the board to allow the free market direct economic growth, that’s fine, but if she means tailoring the economy, I’m glad she lost. Brian Abbot, who came in dead last with 7% of the vote was another tax and spend liberal who supported Prop. 100.

Hosts James Allen, Rachel Alexander and I discuss the primary election results with a conservative perspective.

Link to Monday, August 30 Roundtable Politics episode*

*this episode was NOT filmed with Horst Kraus’ camera nor was it filmed with the approval of the “Republican” Party or the self-aggrandizing McCainiac “Mafia” “leader” Jabba the Vath. No liberals, moderates, RINOs, or DIDs were harmed during the filming of this video…they were ritually sacrificed AFTER the program.

Conservatives made some good gains in the Congressional races. I think conservatives had wins in the Congressional races because they’re sexier than state races. This is perhaps where we shined the brightest since we lost wholesale in the state-wide races and, as you’ll see in my next article, the legislative races were a real mixed bag. I’d argue that since the federal government is a government of limited powers and the states are governments of general powers, we need to be focusing a lot more on state races than we currently do. Same with city, county, school board and other elections. Again, there’s LOTS of work for the TEA Partiers to do if they’ll just apply themselves.

CD 1
I’ve got to admit, CD 1 isn’t my strong suit and I don’t know a ton about Gosar. Paul Gosar won in CD 1 with about 38% of the vote. Looking at the FEC reports, he had the money. He also had a Palin endorsement. In Arizona, that shouldn’t mean much to conservatives since she endorsed McCain too, but apparently it meant something to the district. It looks like from his webpage he had the support of Sheriffs Arpaio and Babeu as well.

Sydney Hay came in second with about 23% of the vote. Not too shabby since she’s run in the district a couple of times before. She had name ID and money that rivaled Gosar’s. However, Sydney threw her hat in the ring late in the game. Sydney has been a movement conservative for a long time. To my mind, the fact that she was Alan Keyes’ campaign manager is all I need to know about her. Keyes is a consummate conservative, but in recent years, he’s acted on the crazy side.

The surprise in the race is that newcomer Bradley Beauchamp beat Rusty Bowers. Bradley was nice enough to come on Grassroots Interviews. He styles himself a constitutionalist and is passionate about his beliefs. As a constructive criticism, his passion often comes across as anger and that can be off-putting. I’d like to see Beauchamp run for office again.

Rusty Bowers of course is a lobbyist and former state legislator. The lobbyist Mike Williams once told me that being a lobbyist pretty much precludes you from winning office. He was right in Matt Salmon’s case and in Rusty’s case, but I remain skeptical about his adage.

The others might be good guys, but this was a crowded field and they failed to broach even 10% and to be frank aren’t worth mentioning.

Simply by looking at Gosar’s webpage, he seems like a relatively conservative guy. I hope that he truly is. It would be a ray of hope for conservatives and one of the too few wins in our column. The next test will be for Gosar to beat Ann Kirpatrick, but then comes the REAL test: will he have the spine to be a conservative icon like Mike Pence, Jeb Hensarling and to a lesser extent Paul Ryan or will he be subverted by the RINO McCainiacs like Flake and Shadegg. I pray he has backbone.

CD 2
No surprises that Trent Franks annihilated Black by an 80-20 margin. Since Shadegg and Flake abandoned conservatives, Trent Franks has been our lone conservative in Congress. He has made some missteps, like endorsing the RINO Sen. Nelson in LD 12and endorsing McCain before JD Hayworth got in the race, but again, right now, he’s the best we conservatives have in Congress and he’s a darned good Congressman. We’re lucky to have him.

CD 3
I’ll be the first to admit that I called this race incorrectly. With Niecegate, dirty.com, the hint of nepotism and inexperience and all the old Bush-Quayle establishment money flowing into Ben Quayle’s coffers from out of state, I thought he was going to be beat. I was wrong. I think the Quayle win was the most impressive of election night.

Many commenters have said money and name ID were the most key in this election cycle. The Quayle win would seem to prove that assertion correct. Apparently, he was able to paper the district with mailers. Again, since I haven’t been back in the state long enough to be considered a high-propensity voter, I wasn’t targeted by many campaigns, so I didn’t see all the campaigning many candidates in my area did. By many accounts, the Quayle effort could be compared to a deluge.

Luckily, Quayle can fundraise. Hulburd, the Democrat nominee has around three quarters of a million dollars. While the Democrats may THINK they’re going to have a field day smearing Quayle, this will NOT be a repeat of Harry Mitchell vs. J.D. Hayworth. This is a Republican year and CD 3 has a strong Republican registration advantage.

To my mind, Moak coming in second was also a surprise. His fundraising was second only to Quayle’s. Moak seemed to be a relatively conservative guy when he came on Grassroots Interviews. I’ll also assert, as many have, that immigration was also a key issue this cycle. I believe his opponents were successfully able to label him as a supporter of the DREAM Act, a measure that upset the anti-illegal immigration crowd. After my interview of Mr. Moak, his answers about the DREAM Act seemed to be less than a direct and emphatic, “No, I don’t support the DREAM Act.” If he had not been successfully characterized to the voter’s mind as a supporter of the DREAM Act, he might have edged out Quayle. There was only about a 3,000 vote difference between Moak and Quayle.

Waring coming in third was also a surprise. I had picked him to win this contest because I know he was knocking on doors every day. While I may have picked him to win, I did not want him to win. He was a McCain staffer and while some have said he’s shown some independence, I would never have trusted him not to carry McCain’s water in the House. If McCain subverted our Arizona delegation, he wouldn’t have even had to try with Waring. I am happy with Waring’s loss simply because I worry about his politics. To my mind, he’s not conservative enough. Mark my words, Jim will be back. I believe he’s ambitious. He’ll run for something else soon and trust me, he’ll win because he knows how to campaign and he campaigns hard.

I never understood the hype around Vernon Parker. Vernon was a Bush appointee. Bush was a liberal Republican so it might stand to reason that Vernon is a moderate or liberal too because he was tapped by Bush to serve in the Administration. One bit about Parker that even he did not publicize, to his detriment, that would have helped him shake off the mantle of moderate or liberal, is that he worked on the nomination of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court. I also felt like Vernon got Arpaio’s endorsement simply because both are Jason Rose clients. It didn’t seem like a sincere endorsement to me. I mean, really, when you think of stopping illegal immigration, is Vernon Parker’s name the first that pops into your head? Don’t get me wrong, I have come to like the Sheriff and I honestly do appreciate the fact that he endorsed so many candidates. I’ve thanked Arpaio in person for that. I think three other things killed Vernon’s chances. First, he seemed wishy-washy or inconsistent when he dropped out of the governor’s race and ran for Congress instead. I was thankful he dropped out of the governor’s race because I supported Dean and I thought Vernon was a distraction. Since CD 3 includes Paradise Valley, I sorta felt like his switch in races was cynical in that he decided to abandon the Governor’s race for a seat that had his constituency as a larger percentage of the electorate. Second, I’m skeptical of anyone who’s in city government. City government is not a bastion of conservatism, of belief in de minimis government. Unless someone in city government is really making waves slashing and burning unnecessary city services and being a total junkyard dog attacking wasteful city spending, they’re likely moderate or liberal. Third, the playing of the race card in was desperate and perfidious. Calling someone a “poster boy,” isn’t racist in the slightest. Calling a black man, “boy” is. The term was used to assert white dominance over blacks in the South. I’m a Southerner by birth and the grace of God. Vernon wasn’t called, “boy” by anyone…except maybe me. Before the “poster boy” flap, at the Sheriff’s birthday party in Cave Creek, I asked Vernon when he was coming on Grassroots Interviews. Without thinking, I addressed him as “boy.” I truly meant it in a jocular and familiar sense. I realized later that the term had racist overtones and I sought Vernon out to look him in the eye and sincerely apologize about any unintended connotations. Vernon said he hadn’t heard me call him that and said he wouldn’t have taken offense. That told me that Vernon’s “outrage” at the “poster boy” comments was manufactured. We’re in a time where the leftists have shrilly cried “racist” at every turn. We’re in a time where the term has been so overused, we’ve started to turn a deaf ear to it and dismiss the claims. We’re not letting the leftists shut down the debate anymore with that now meaningless and overused brand.

Gorman and Crump were two LD 6 conservatives that likely split the votes of their constituencies. Pam Gorman certainly campaigned harder than Sam Crump. Crump certainly had a hard time raising money. Not only did I vote for Sam Crump, but I had hoped he would have remained in the Attorney General’s race. Had he stayed in that race, with Thomas and Horne destroying each other, he might have been the victor…but more than likely, he would have split the conservative vote with Thomas and assured Horne’s victory. My trouble with Gorman is her support of moderate or liberal candidates. She supported Tony Bouie over Carl Seel and Sam Crump for the LD 6 House. Tony is a nice guy, I appreciated the fact that he came on Grassroots Interviews, I’m just hesitant to believe he’s a hard-core conservative and I hope he doesn’t hold my comments against me because I’d like to remain friends with him. Gorman also supported Peggy Neely. To my mind, conservatives should NEVER, EVER, EVER support moderate or liberal candidates. To me, it’s unforgiveable. Gorman did it not once, but twice. I think both Gorman and Crump are ambitious and we’ll see them run for office again. I can honestly say I wish them both the best of luck.

I’m SO happy that the Jan Brewer-loving and pro-death Paulina Morris finished near the bottom. She had an organized and ardent pro-death constituency. I can only hope she and Hull, the two pro-death candidates, split the pro-death vote. But more than the Life issue, Paulina Morris’ ads were atrocious. Find out who did her commercials and avoid them like the plague. The impression I was left with after her first TV ad was that she was an angry woman marching around behind a desk stabbing her finger at me. That’s not a way to PERSUADE me to vote for you. Her “frank” assessment of the other candidates was also a colossal disaster. There’s a certain decorum that’s expected of Congressmen. It’s why Joe Wilson got reprimanded for correctly stating that Obama is a liar during the State of the Union address. Saying she “damned well approved this message,” violated that decorum. So did Quayle’s ad stating that he’d “knock the Hell out of Washington.” However, sexist or not, I think we generally still expect ladies to act like ladies and Morris’ ad was not lady-like. I truly hope this is Morris’ political obituary, at least in terms of running for office. We Republicans don’t need her for much more than voting for our nominees. Otherwise, she needs to register as a Democrat.

Ed Winkler had an amazingly tin ear. He committed suicide in front of the Arizona Republican Assembly by stating that he thought Jeff Flake was on the mark on illegal immigration. He had neither the district-wide name ID or the money or the position on illegal immigration necessary to win. I knew he’d be an also-ran and he finished just about where I privately suspected he would.

Bob Branch came in second to last. Sad. He’s a good guy and my impression is that he’s genuinely conservative. The only black mark I know about on him is that he apparently dislikes Prop. 13. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, I hope Bob Branch stays involved in politics and I hope he runs for something else soon, like perhaps the state legislature. If he does, I’d be happy to support him. Ultimately, he didn’t have a lot of cash, he didn’t have a lot of name ID, and he didn’t have an Arpaio endorsement. Though negatives to overcome.

LeAnn Hull never had a chance. She came in dead last and had I publicly made predictions before the primaries, I would have stated that she would come in last. She’s a passionate woman, but comes across as crazy. Her ad done in the toilet where she says we’re flushing money in Washington just looks thoroughly insane. She’s pro-death and when I asked her about amnesty, she at first said that she didn’t believe in it, then explained in a round about way that she thought there should be a path to citizenship. She should have started her political career running for the state legislature, but I would not counsel her to run for anything at all ever again. Her positions on the Life issue and amnesty and her inability to raise money should be clear indicators that she’ll never go anywhere in politics. LeAnn said she didn’t want to raise money. That’s a cop out. While having the most money is not a guarantor of a win, have NO money guarantees defeat. Her position on fundraising is more proof of her lack of a grasp on reality.

Is the Quayle win a win for conservatives? I’m undecided. He has at least one conservatarian on his staff that truly believes Ben is conservative. I hope he’s right. If the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, we need to remember that Bush picked Dan Quayle as his VP running mate to appeal to the conservatives. I truly hope Ben Quayle makes his dad look like a sissy liberal. I’ll be voting for Ben in the general election over Hulburd and I’m confident that Ben WILL win a seat to Congress. Get used to saying, “Congressman Quayle.”

CD 4
Janet Contreras smoked admitted progressive candidate Jose Penalosa by almost 19 points. Yes, Janet is my client, but I can truly say CD 4 made a VERY wise choice by nominating Janet. I’m sure Janet will want me to be nice to Jose because that’s just the type of classy woman she is, but I’m going to take a moment to talk about Jose Penalosa’s campaign strategy. That I can tell, Jose’s strategy was to show up on just about every Spanish speaking media outlet and put campaign signs in downtown Phoenix which has a very transitory population of workers that come from a multitude of districts. He wasn’t targeting constituents at all by doing that. His signs should have been in the residential areas of CD 4. As for targeting the Spanish-speaking, I don’t see the logic in that either. Even Hispanics will admit that Hispanics aren’t high efficacy voters as they should be. Now, there’s been speculation that Penalosa might be a Pastor plant or even a McCain plant, but there’s also speculation that Penalosa ran for Congress just to advertise his law firm which defends illegals. His campaign strategy sure seemed to target those same illegals who listen to Spanish radio.

This is a win for conservatives. Now we need to really help Janet get the 9K or 10K more votes she needs to topple Ed Pastor. As Janet says, we need to stop spreading the lie that pastor is not vulnerable. In this Republican year and with a stellar candidate like Janet, he IS vulnerable.

CD 5
Conservative David Schwiekert beat moderate Jim Ward by slightly more than 12 points. Schweikert had name ID, money, and a strong stance on immigration. It was a recipe for a win.

Ward’s ads were pure perfidy. Attacking Schweikert as a career politician? It’s been a while since he’s held office. Attacking Schweikert for losing to Mitchell in a year when Republicans lost across the board? I guess in bad years for Republicans no one should challenge the Democrats? I think the voters saw through Ward’s thin logic.

Now, it’s time for some frank talk with Susan Bitter Smith. How many times have you run for office and lost? You’re now officially a perennial candidate and perennial loser. Arizonans have you figured out as a moderate or RINO and you’ve been outed as such on this blog innumerable times. Please, stop running for office. You can’t win. We want you in the party to vote for our nominees, but your ambition has been soundly rejected time and again. I’d suggest taking the hint.

Some TEA Partiers supported Chris Salvino. He came in fourth and garnered less than 10%. I have friends that worked for his campaign and were supporters, but I have to think that Dr. Salvino might have fared better if he had run for a legislative seat out of the gate.

The other also rans aren’t worth mentioning their results were so poor.

This is a total win for conservatives. Almost 59K people turned out to vote in the Republican primary. Only 24K, less than half of the Republican votes, turned out to vote for Mitchell. That’s a heartening statistic in a Republican year. I’m sure the Leftists will argue that Mitchell hasn’t bothered to run a campaign yet since he wasn’t facing a primary.

CD 6
That Jeff Flake beat Jeff Smith by a 2-1 margin is no surprise. I believe I predicted Flake’s win, not like that was too difficult to predict. Despite all the black marks against Jeff Flake, he is a leviathan in the district. He certainly had the name ID and money to command the field. Even Russell Pearce had the wisdom not to challenge Flake. Flake started out his Congressional career as a staunch conservative, but he has been subverted by McCain and the open borders crowd. He has voted for ENDA, he sponsored the STRIVE Act, he has proposed Cap & Trade legislation and he broke his term limit pledge. Flake has become a disaster.

I HAVE to chalk this up as a win for moderates and a loss for conservatives. CD 6 was presented with a conservative alternative to Flake and they rejected him. Flake will continue to move left. He’s lost his way. We’d love to have Flake back in the conservative fold, but I’m not holding out hope.

CD 7
Myers may have had some money, but that didn’t help him beat Ruth McClung. Ruth campaigned hard. I saw her everywhere. I saw Myers once. Granted, I don’t live in CD 7. Let me ask, if we should have voted for Myers because he’s a millionaire and he had the cash to beat Grijalva, then why didn’t he spend the cash to defeat Ruth? Myers ran a poor campaign. I’ve also got to ask if Myers is dedicated to defeating Grijalva, is he going to max out to McClung now?

The shocker here was that Robert Wilson, who made an attempt at campaigning, lost to perennial candidate and nut job Joe Sweeney.

This has to be counted as a conservative win. The real test is for Ruth to run hard against Mr. “Boycott Arizona” Grijalva. He’s utter leftist scum and hates America and his own state. Democrats should be ashamed for electing this guy and returning him to office.

CD 8
Jesse Kelly, a newcomer, beat a former state legislator with more money. This is proof that money isn’t everything, but it’s helpful. Jesse campaigned hard. For a while at the beginning, I thought he was the only guy in the race. Something else that may have hurt Paton was his late entry into the race. Paton has never been a conservative legislator in the mold of Harper or Gould or Seel or Burgess. I bet we see Paton run for something else in the future.

If Jesse makes it to Congress, and I hope he does, I hope he is unwaveringly conservative. I hope he resists McCain’s attempts to subvert him. We need him to stand strong.

I have to chalk this up to a win for conservatives due to Paton’s middle of the road record. Since Giffords is considered vulnerable, I expect Jesse to get a flood of cash from the RNC.

WRAP-UP
Conservatives and TEA Partiers, you did OK. I give you a B+…but that’s not an A+. There’s work to be done. You need to STAY involved and be involved in ALL races and elections. Don’t give up!

As I predicted, Arizona TEA Partiers and conservatives did not produce stellar results. While conservatives utterly failed to cut the head off the RINO snake in Arizona, they did undercut McCain by defeating some of his allies in some more local races and I’ll be writing post-mortems on the Congressional and legislative races soon. The net result for conservatives for the state as a whole may be a wash.

Conservatives and TEA Partiers should not give up hope. We need to now start looking forward to the 2011 local elections. We need to recruit and vette candidates. We need to work tirelessly to get the candidates we favor elected by knocking on doors, carrying petitions, distributing literature, making phone calls, and asking voters to donate money. Staying involved in the party to drag it to the right is the answer. Abandoning ship is not.

U.S. Senate

I’ve got to admit, I never thought that the utter RINO McCain would beat J.D. Hayworth by such a wide margin. Yet again, he was able to hoodwink Arizona’s voters by falsely claiming the mantle of conservatism. He was one of a multitude of liberal candidates this cycle that lied to voters about being conservative while their voting records clearly demonstrated otherwise. Let me ask, if conservatives are so horrible, why campaign as one every time you’re up for election? If being conservative is so great for winning elections, why did McCain give ObaMao a pass? Clearly, the conventional wisdom is flawed and being conservative in BOTH the primary AND general AND in deed as well as word is the recipe for winning elections and maintaining majority status.

Another correct prediction I made was that Deakin was not even a factor. He is demonstrably insane and he and his wife were alienating rather than persuasive, that is what rendered him a non-issue in all but the closest of races. Even adding Deakin’s votes to Hayworth’s, Hayworth would not have won due to McCain’s wide margin of victory. I truly do like all of Hayworth’s campaign staff, I am friends with and know many of them, but I’ve got to say that Hayworth’s commercials (at least the ones I saw), and therefore his messaging, were lackluster. McCain was able to land more telling blows, regardless of their veracity, like labeling Hayworth a “huckster.” Hayworth’s camp was convinced that once J.D. began his media buys, Deakin’s paltry support might actually make a difference in a tight race. I remained skeptical.

This race was a win in the moderate column. Moderates do not excite conservatives because moderates have no principles. Expect conservatives to concentrate their attentions and efforts to other races. They could sit out the 2010 Senate race as conservative voters did nationwide in 2006 & 2008 because Republicans had abandoned their core principles. Conservatives could even vote for Libertarians or other candidates in an effort to show their utter displeasure with the election of McCain.

Arizona Governor

As many have said, Jan Brewer owes her victory entirely to Russell Pearce. Without him delivering S.B. 1070 to her desk, the tax and spend Brewer would have been slaughtered by the likes of conservative Dean Martin as the earliest polls showed. 1070 was the game changer. I had hoped that Arizona voters would have been astute enough to see through her cynical support of 1070 since the woman has NO record on illegal immigration before 1070 and supports amnesty.

Another win in the moderate column. Again, the tax and spend Brewer and her special interest cronies will not ignite the conservative base. Expect conservatives to focus on other races and consider Libertarians as an alternative. The Dems will have a field day excoriating Brewer as unintelligent. Just dig up some of the videos about her on YouTube to see what I’m talking about. Luckily, Goddard’s campaign has proven that it has no clue what the voters are interested in. His commercials are on topics that no one cares about.

Attorney General

Dean Martin beat Tome Horne back in 2000 by successfully casting himself as a hard-line conservative and exposing Tom Horne for the RINO he is. While I have disliked Andy Thomas in the past, my support has grown for Andy over time and I voted for him. That Thomas might actually be losing to the RINO Horne, someone who has a reputation for being a lech at the Legislature, someone who lost his SEC license and had to admit wrong-doing, is unfathomable. Granted, Horne is one of those candidates that lied to the public and claimed a mantle of conservatism when he’s anything but a conservative.

This is a win for the RINOs. Horne couldn’t be a less inspiring candidate. On the stump, he looks and sounds like a doddering old man. We’ve had Democrat Attorney Generals for how long now? Just like the other RINO candidates who won statewide nomination, Horne will fail to ignite the passions of the conservatives and he may lose.

Treasurer

Last night, I told Doug Ducey that he thoroughly surprised me. He’s a likeable guy and I thank him for showing up on RoundtablePolitics.com with James Allen, Rachel Alexander and me, but I never would have predicted that he’d be our nominee. I expected him to come in third behind Verschoor and Leff because he was a newcomer.

I voted for Thayer. Verschoor had the most conservative record. Leff sponsored the tax increase, had a more moderate voting record and I’m glad she ended up being held accountable for it. As for Ted Carpenter, he used to be my Senator and is a nice guy. I had several conversations with him during the primary, but he really did seem to run a nigh non-existent campaign.

I had serious concerns about Ducey when many blog commenters began to indicate that Ducey has strong ties to McCain. He bundled campaign contributions for McCain back in 2008. He was also apparently involved with the pro-big government and command economy group Greater Phoenix Leadership (this group is in turn supported by former McCain Chief of Staff and former RINO legislator Deb Gullet). GPL supported RINO Republicans and Democrats in state legislative races via the Twelve in `10 fundraiser. GPL also supported Expect More Arizona, a group dedicated to protecting the failed status quo in education. One can only ascribe the same philosophies to Ducey. Why else would he be associated with the group?

If one might be concerned that Ducey supports McCain and favors government tailoring an economy and picking winners and losers via special breaks, then one should also be concerned that a McCain supporter would have a position fourth in line from being Governor. Will we be seeing a Governor Ducey down the road?

While I like Thayer and voted for him, I heard many express concern about his competency to do the Treasurer’s job (clearly I was not swayed). Dean Martin, our current state Treasurer, endorsed Ducey, ostensibly because he felt Ducey was the most competent to do the job. Leff’s camp loved to reiterate the fact that Ducey had to take Coldstone through bankruptcy and I’m sure the Democrats will fling this at Ducey in the general election.

In the end, we have to chalk this race up as a moderate win as well. If that’s the case, then moderates made a clean sweep of the statewide races. Even though I may have concerns about Ducey, I’ve already invited him to come on Grassroots Interviews and I hope to help him draw bright-line distinctions between himself and the Democrat nominee. I’d be pleased to have him on the show.

**edit**
Corporation Commission

Of course, the Corporation Commission race is the only ray of hope for conservatives in the elections results for statewide races. Gary Pierce and Bredna Burns were our two most conservative choices in the race. Pierce and Burns won. I don’t think anyone would disagree that Barry Wong killed his own chances. His voting record is demonstrably to the left of Burns’ and Pierce’s records. He tried, like many moderate candidates, to run as a conservative. I think everyone knows that in an effort to pander to the anti-illegal immigration crowd, he disingenuously stated that utilities should shut off electricity and water to illegals in Arizona. This statement turned many off to Barry. Why anyone would consider Verry Wrong in the first place is beyond me.

This might be conservatives one win, but it’s not very exciting. The corporation is a cesspool of government regulation of the economy. We can’t expect Pierce and Burns to reverse ages of command economy regulation and install a free market. The best we can hope for is for them to hold the line. However, these are elective positions, so, Pierce and Burns, to hold power, will have to pander to consumers. That being the case, I don’t expect them to hold the line without fail. Still, better these two than Mr. Wrong.
**edit**

Final Analysis of Statewide Races

This does not bode well for igniting the passions of the conservative base. Again, individual conservative voters will likely focus on the smaller races where some conservative candidates won while the Party pushes establishment moderate candidates in the general election. Some have said that money and message matter. That’s certainly true in the Senate and Treasurer’s race, but not the case in the Governor’s race. Money is definitely helpful, but it’s not everything. If it was, Buz Mills would be our nominee.

Seemingly, as the races go upticket and more voters actually pay attention to the races, the more purple or blue the voters get. That analysis would certainly hold true for our statewide races since it was a clean sweep for the moderates and RINOs.

It is of paramount importance that the TEA Partiers stay engaged. They need to continue to infiltrate the Republican Party and drag it to the right. The TEA Partiers need to become Republican PCs and dictate to the party who its leaders will be. Granted, all movements die, but there’s plenty of room for them to be relevant for years to come if they choose to remain relevant. One might question that desire considering the statewide results.

Last night on Roundtable Politics, Rachel Alexander and I discussed the statewide and legislative races. We made our picks and predicted the winners in every race.

Link to pre-primary Roundtable Politics