Arizona Media Members Make Their 2016 Predictions

Everyone likes political predictions and these longtime media political reporters are no exception.

Barely edging out the competition on 2015 predictions, Capitol Media Services’ Howie Fischer returns alongside Steve Goldstein of KJZZ and replacing the recently retired Doug MacEachern is Arizona Republic columnist Laurie Roberts.

In the first eight minutes of the segment, Ted Simons reviews the panel’s 2015 predictions tallying up a win for Howie Fischer with 9 points to MacEachern and Goldstein’s eight points.

The remaining 18 minutes, Roberts, Goldstein and Fischer deliver their 2016 predictions. Here’s a summary of what they expect to happen in Arizona and national politics over the course of 2016:

  1. Republican Presidential Nominee?
    Roberts: Marco Rubio
    Fischer: Ted Cruz
    Goldstein: Jeb Bush
  2. Democrat Presidential Nominee?
    Goldstein: Hillary Clinton
    Fischer: Hillary Clinton
    Roberts: Hillary Clinton
  3. Who wins the Presidency?
    Fischer: Whoever the Republican is unless it’s Trump
    Goldstein: Jeb Bush
    Roberts: The Republican nominee unless Trump runs as an Independent
  4. What will be the final number of electoral votes?
    Roberts: 287
    Fischer: 295
    Goldstein: 276
  5. Who wins the US Senate race in Arizona?
    Goldstein: John McCain
    Roberts: John McCain
    Fischer: John McCain
  6. What will be the congressional delegation party breakdown?
    Fischer: 5-4 Republican
    Goldstein: 5-4 Republican
    Roberts: 6-3 Republican
  7. Will Donald Trump win a state primary?
    Goldstein: Yes, Trump will win South Carolina
    Fischer: Yes, several state primaries
    Roberts: No
  8. Who will win in Arizona’s Congressional District 1?
    Goldstein: Paul Babeu wins GOP nomination; Tom O’Halleran wins Democrat nomination & General Election
    Fischer: Babeu wins GOP nod; O’Halleran wins Dem not and ultimately CD-1 seat
    Roberts: O’Halleran wins Dem nomination; Gary Kiehne wins the seat for Republicans
  9. Will Democrats take over the US House?
    Fischer: No way
    Roberts: No way
    Goldstein: No way
  10. Will Republicans keep the US Senate?
    Goldstein: Yes
    Fischer: Yes
    Roberts: Yes
  11. How many initiatives on the 2016 Ballot?
    Fischer: Three
    Goldstein: Four
    Roberts: Five
  12. Will Marijuana make it on the ballot and pass?
    Roberts: Yes, but it will not pass
    Goldstein: Yes, but it will not pass
    Fischer: Yes, but it will not pass
  13. Will the May Special Election Education Funding Referral pass?
    Fischer: Yes
    Goldstein: Yes
    Roberts: Yes
  14. What will the winning percentage be for the education funding referral?
    Roberts: 72%
    Fischer: 66.666%
    Goldstein: 64%
  15. When will the Arizona Legislature adjourn sine die?
    Fischer: May 26
    Goldstein: May 4
    Roberts: April 22
  16. What will be the Republican – Democrat breakdown in Arizona Legislature?
    Goldstein: 36-24 House; 18-12 Senate
    Fischer: Returns to status quo before Begay switched parties
    Roberts: 34-26 House; 17-13 Senate
  17. Does Sheriff Joe Arpaio win re-election?
    Goldstein: Arpaio wins re-election
    Fischer: Arpaio wins again
    Roberts: If David Gonzalez runs in the General Election, he will beat Arpaio
  18. Will the Arizona Diamondbacks make the playoffs?
    Goldstein: Yes
    Roberts: Yes
    Fischer: No
  19. Will the Phoenix Suns make the playoffs?
    Fischer: Only to the first round
    Goldstein: No
    Roberts: No
  20. Long Shot / Sure Thing Predictions:
    Goldstein Sure Thing: At least one former Arizona Corporation Commissioner will run for the seat with an announcement in January.
    Goldstein Long Shots: Doug Ducey as a finalist for VP on GOP ticket (out of final 3) and, Diamondbacks will make playoffs because they will fire Chip Hale and replace him from above with Tony La Russa.
    Fischer Sure Thing: Supreme Court will reject challenge to Arizona redistricting letting it stand.
    Fischer Long Shots: Kelli Ward gets 35% of the vote in GOP US Senate Primary and, Jeff Flake is appointed as US Ambassador to Cuba.
    Roberts Sure Thing: Public schools will remain underfunded while the Legislature gives another tax cut.
    Roberts Long Shot: No member of the ACC on the 2016 will be re-elected. Doug Ducey will seek to reform “dark money.”

Watch the entire episode to get the full details and reasons for their predictions.


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