Analysis beats MSM propaganda

An In Depth Look at Who Votes & Decides the GOP Primaries: A Commentary by Douglas Schoen cuts to the chase in the Republican Presidential race.  Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Rasmussen Reports polling has recently shown Fred Thompson leading the race.  Rasmussen screens for Likely Primary Voters while others do not. Understanding this difference leads one to conclude that the conventional wisdom is currently overestimating Giuliani’s strength.

For example, the latest Gallup Poll of adults shows Rudy Giuliani leading Thompson by eight percentage points, 30% to 22%. That poll also shows John McCain in third place with 18% of the vote, well ahead of Mitt Romney at 7%.

But, of course, we know that all adults don’t show and vote… especially in a party primary. When Gallup combines their last four surveys and takes a look at the more informed voters. Gallup says “Indeed, among Republicans who have an opinion of the four leading candidates — less than half the party base — the ballot looks very different, with Thompson at 33% support, Giuliani at 26%, Romney at 15%, and McCain at 10%.”

Not only does Gallup’s sample of informed voters show Thompson ahead of Giuliani, they also match Rasmussen by showing Romney ahead of McCain.  And those more informed voters are precisely the kind of people who show up and vote in a primary.


  1. Kralmajales says

    I think you are right about this. Conservatives dominate primaries and caucuses in the GOP. They are more likely to turn out and more likely to vote for someone other than Giuliani. More important, the traditional moderate Republican that DID vote is likely to be an independent in the next election.

    What is interesting is how the air has run out of Romney’s balloon as Thompson entered the race…and how the one true conservative in the race…JOHN MCCAIN…has picked up some steam.

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