Adam Kwasman, Ann Kirkpatrick Tied in Congressional Race

Incumbent dangerously below 50% 

Oro Valley – State Representative and congressional candidate Adam Kwasman commissioned McLaughlin and Associates to survey likely general election voters in Arizona’s First Congressional District.  A summary of the results can be seen below.  

TO:           Interested Parties

FROM:     John McLaughlin and Rob Schmidt

RE:          Arizona CD 1 Survey – Key Findings

Date:        December 12, 2013_____________________________________________________________________

Key Findings

1.     State Representative Adam Kwasman is statistically tied with the incumbent, Ann Kirkpatrick, who is dangerously far from the margin needed for re-election. 

Among those most likely to vote, 42% preferred Kwasman and 41% selected Kirkpatrick. Overall, 42.7% of all likely voters chose Kirkpatrick to 40% who preferred Kwasman, a statistical tie, with eleven months remaining in the election.  42.7% is a dangerously low level of support for any incumbent.

2.     Kwasman has nearly unlimited room to grow; Kirkpatrick, with 92.7% name identification, is unlikely to increase her numbers.

Kirkpatrick is nearly universally known after her three races for Congress.  Notably, she has fallen far from the 48% share of the vote she won in 2012.  Kwasman is known by only 23.7% of the voters.

3.     Kirkpatrick’s core support is anemic

After three elections for Congress, only 23.7% of the voters will definitely support Kirkpatrick.

4.     Voters overwhelmingly prefer a Republican check on the president to a Democrat who will hand the president a blank check. 

By a margin of 53.3% to 37.7%, voters selected a Republican member of Congress who would serve as “a check and balance to President Obama” versus a “Democrat who will help President Obama pass his agenda.”  This is unsurprising, in light of the President’s 40.7% – 56.7% job approval/disapproval rating.  Kirkpatrick, who famously said that she would not second guess this President, has positioned herself sharply at odds with her constituents.

The Bottom Line 

Ann Kirkpatrick is in greater jeopardy of losing her seat than previously thought.  Though nearly universally known, her support is far from what is necessary to secure another term.  All of this is predicated on the same turnout model that elected Kirkpatrick in 2012. If Republican turnout increases as a share of the electorate, as it has in previous midterm elections, then the above numbers grow considerably worse for Kirkpatrick.

 

Demographic Breakdown:

PARTY % AGE TOTAL
Republican 36% Under 40 23%
Democrat 39% 41 – 55 21%
Independent/Other 23% 56 – 65 29%
IDEOLOGY % Over 65 26%
Liberal 23% GENDER %
Moderate 27% Male 47%
Conservative 45% Female 53%
RACE % AREA %
White 65% Apache County 10%
Hispanic 21% Phoenix Media Market 71%
Native American 5% Pima County 19%
Other 3% STATE LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT %
OBAMA JOB RATING % Kwasman (LD 11) 32%
Approve 41% Rest of District 68%
Disapprove 57%

*Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology: This survey of 300 likely 2014 general election voters in Arizona’s first congressional district was conducted on December 9th and 10th, 2013. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a general election. This poll of 300 likely 2014 general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 5.7% at a 95% confidence interval.
For more information about Adam Kwasman’s campaign for Congress, please visit www.AdamKwasman.com.


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