Incumbent dangerously below 50%
Oro Valley – State Representative and congressional candidate Adam Kwasman commissioned McLaughlin and Associates to survey likely general election voters in Arizona’s First Congressional District. A summary of the results can be seen below.
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: John McLaughlin and Rob Schmidt
RE: Arizona CD 1 Survey – Key Findings
Date: December 12, 2013__________________________
1. State Representative Adam Kwasman is statistically tied with the incumbent, Ann Kirkpatrick, who is dangerously far from the margin needed for re-election.
Among those most likely to vote, 42% preferred Kwasman and 41% selected Kirkpatrick. Overall, 42.7% of all likely voters chose Kirkpatrick to 40% who preferred Kwasman, a statistical tie, with eleven months remaining in the election. 42.7% is a dangerously low level of support for any incumbent.
2. Kwasman has nearly unlimited room to grow; Kirkpatrick, with 92.7% name identification, is unlikely to increase her numbers.
Kirkpatrick is nearly universally known after her three races for Congress. Notably, she has fallen far from the 48% share of the vote she won in 2012. Kwasman is known by only 23.7% of the voters.
3. Kirkpatrick’s core support is anemic
After three elections for Congress, only 23.7% of the voters will definitely support Kirkpatrick.
4. Voters overwhelmingly prefer a Republican check on the president to a Democrat who will hand the president a blank check.
By a margin of 53.3% to 37.7%, voters selected a Republican member of Congress who would serve as “a check and balance to President Obama” versus a “Democrat who will help President Obama pass his agenda.” This is unsurprising, in light of the President’s 40.7% – 56.7% job approval/disapproval rating. Kirkpatrick, who famously said that she would not second guess this President, has positioned herself sharply at odds with her constituents.
The Bottom Line
Ann Kirkpatrick is in greater jeopardy of losing her seat than previously thought. Though nearly universally known, her support is far from what is necessary to secure another term. All of this is predicated on the same turnout model that elected Kirkpatrick in 2012. If Republican turnout increases as a share of the electorate, as it has in previous midterm elections, then the above numbers grow considerably worse for Kirkpatrick.
|Democrat||39%||41 – 55||21%|
|Independent/Other||23%||56 – 65||29%|
|Hispanic||21%||Phoenix Media Market||71%|
|Native American||5%||Pima County||19%|
|Other||3%||STATE LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT||%|
|OBAMA JOB RATING||%||Kwasman (LD 11)||32%|
|Approve||41%||Rest of District||68%|
*Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Methodology: This survey of 300 likely 2014 general election voters in Arizona’s first congressional district was conducted on December 9th and 10th, 2013. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a general election. This poll of 300 likely 2014 general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 5.7% at a 95% confidence interval.
For more information about Adam Kwasman’s campaign for Congress, please visit www.AdamKwasman.com.