A Bad Year for Some but not All.

     The crew at Arizona 8th has a great summary of the Republican LD 26 meeting that took place today. The Sonoran Alliance correspondent was at the meeting but had to leave early to attend a picnic. We defer to the detailed coverage of Framer.

     We agree with Framer that there is some “revisionism” going on out there. On the other hand we disagree that Kyl’s win was as much luck as good campaigning. Jon Kyl is a highly skilled politician and a major part of his victory was due to the appeal of the candidate himself. Kyl is simply a good senator and an excellent strategist.

     One other point, Kyl was not the lone highlight. The standout candidate was Dean Martin. He won with a margin of 13.4 points as a strong supported of Prop 300 in a bad year for Republicans. Simple awesome.

     Other standouts are Shadegg and Franks. The significance is not that they won but by how large a margin both won (almost 60/40,) again supposedly in a bad year for Republicans.

     Thank you to Framer for saying what needed to be said.

Saturday 12-9-06. 4:30 pm


Comments

  1. Dean Martin? Please. Martin won convincingly simply because of who his opponent was. As good as his name is, his opponent’s name was the opposite. And since Clean Elections prohibits down the line statewide candidates from getting out any message at all, the State Treasurer’s race came down to name and party id. Martin had both of these in his favor before the race even began. So let’s not crown Deano just yet.

  2. Mike Triggs says

    My thoughts exactly. Now who was it ….Rambo Singh….had the Dems ran a Bob Smith or Diane Johnson it would have been a heck of a lot closer..

  3. Oro Valley Dad says

    Please… Give me break. What about the name Charlene Pesquiera? She won in a strong Republican district.

    How about Jason Williams or Ellen Simon? Nice simple names and both clearly lost. Ellen even lost in a district with a Democratic edge.

    Or going back to LD 26 where Lena Saradnik beat David Jorgenson? Get real. Martin won for reasons beyond the name.

    The Republicans only have a 6 point edge in registration statewide with a huge chunk of independents. This year the independents broke from the Republicans like rats fleeing a sinking ship and you are saying they came back to vote for Martin just because of the name while in other races voting for name much stranger than Rano Singh. I’m not buying it. Dean does have a great name but there is something more to the 13.4 point edge than just that.

  4. The only reason Dean Martin has ever won any race he has been in is because of the name ‘Dean Martin’. The newspapers and media gave him a pass on negative stories because EVERYBODY on both sides of the aisle in the Legislature wanted him OUT.

  5. Oro Valley Dad says

    Tony,

    Please expand on that. Why would the conservatives in the AZ Senate want Dean out?

    It doesn’t really matter what they wanted anyway. In his last election Dean won almost 2-1 over the Democrat (LD 6, Nov 2, ’04.) Apparently the voters thought he was just fine.

  6. Why no mention of Sec. of State Jan Brewer? She won by 18 points… the top Republican vote getter in the state. (other than State Mine inspector, which the Dems didn’t even run anyone for). I might also point out that she had an opponent with a “bad” name – Israel Torres.

  7. Oro Valley Dad says

    Crawdad,

    Great point. We at Sonoran Alliance do love Jan but given that she was an incumbent her numbers seem a little less amazing than Martin’s. Jan also learned a great lesson from when Janet splashed her face all over the state tourism billboards. Brewer made good use of the “Bring ID” campaign to make sure her name ID was very high. As a state senator from the Phoenix area Dean did not have such an advantage so we were impressed with his win.

  8. Oro valley dad, your points are not well-taken. You should know that name id in a local race is less relevant. Therefore, your comments on the Tuscon races and the candidates with the “funny” names winning is an apples to oranges comparison. It just doesn’t work.
    Further, Jan Brewers re-election was more impressive than Martin’s, even with her advantages as an incumbent. I’m not sure you have reviwed the numbers, but she got a slighty higher percentage of the total votes cast in her 3-way race that Martin did in his straight up contest. The approximately 3.5 percent (50,000+) votes that the Libertarian received in that race still did not given Jan a lower percentage of the total overall vote that Martin had, and Deano had no Libertarian running to siphon off votes fo him. So you are wrong on that analysis as well.
    Look, I have no problem with Martin winning. He certainly was the better candidate. I just think its laughable to crown him as some savior for the Republican party. Maybe once you get a closer look at him after he has been Treasurer a while, you will understand why. I’ll give you a pass for now because you are south of the Gila, and haven’t gotten familiar with him yet.
    Anyway, we’ll see if you or I am right in a few years when both Jan and Deano make like they want the Governor’s job. My bet is on Jan; I think Martin would have no chance against her, and he won’t run against her (if she gets in).

  9. Oro Valley Dad says

    PDP,

    What about the fact that Jan was an incumbent and was running the bring ID ads paid for by the state with her name all over them?

    Why is name ID in a local race less relevant? I did not mean to crown Martin as savior of the party, although he has some good ideas for anyone running for office.

    You seem to be raising a red flag about Dean. We sure hope he does not go around to LD meetings and give talks about “character.” That did not work out very well last time.

  10. LOL!!! I heard that talk about “Character” when Petersen was a state senator in 1999. He was speaking to the state legislature education committee pushing that program.

    I wonder if he will ever realize the irony, the hypocrisy of what he was doing all these years?

    Having said that, I think Dean Martin is brilliant, but Jan gets my vote for governor (not just because she’s a woman; because she’s a strong, conservative voice for AZ)

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