Archives for October 2018

Data Orbital: Arizona Early Voting Reveals Four Major Trends

Phoenix, AZ (October 31, 2018) With only 6 days remaining until Election Day, over 1.2 million ballots have already been cast in Arizona. Shattering past midterm election turnout figures for the state, these early ballot returns reveal major trends that will continue to play out through Election Day.

The major takeaways for current ballot returns are:

  1. Republican ballot advantage far ahead of 2016: On this same day in 2016 – a Presidential election year – 1,228,936 ballots had been returned, with the Republican Ballot Advantage being +6.4% percentage points, with a margin of 79,180 ballots. With a larger ballot advantage of +9.4% this cycle and a margin of 114,512 ballots, the statewide ballot advantage is likely to see only minor shifts, barring any unprecedented Democratic return numbers in the final week.
  2. Democratic voters holding their ballots longer than 2016: Democratic voters are holding onto their ballots longer than in 2016, averaging 12.44 days compared to 11.36 days in 2016, but shorter than their 13.26 day average in 2014. Meanwhile, Republican voters aren’t holding onto their ballots as long, sitting at an average of 11.76 days compared with 11.97 days in 2016 and 13.48 in 2014.
  3. Older voters far outnumber young and middle-aged voters: Voter ages 55+ outnumber those under 55 by a 2:1 margin.
  4. New voters spilt among parties: Republicans hold a 34.04% share of the 88,700 new voters who have cast a ballot, compared to 34.31% Democrats and 29.75% Independents.

Massive Turnout

According to analysis of AZ-08 special election results, new Arizona voter registration figures, and various pundits, 2018 was projected to be a “blue wave” year.  However, as Arizona has historically cast almost two-thirds of its ballots early, a blue wave scenario is looking increasingly unlikely.  Gaming out the remainder of early ballot returns, any potential downward shift in the Republican ballot advantage will be offset by their 100,000+ ballot advantage.

Looking at the number of ballots requested, Democrats have seen a higher request rate from their registered voters at 78.9% compared to 77.4% of registered Republicans. This two-point spread is up 1.1 percentage points from the 2016 cycle. However, as we saw in 2016, this disparity is minimized by Arizona having more registered Republicans than Democrats. Turning to returned ballots, Republicans currently hold a statewide turnout percentage of 36.7% compared to 32.0% of registered Democratic voters.

New and Frequent Voters

With every election cycle, there is a push to get new voters* to mail in ballots and show up on Election Day.  So far, new voters are only making up 7.15% of total returned ballots. With just fewer than 20% of these 88,700 voters being under the age of 24, a wave of freshly registered young voters does not appear to be returning ballots. Across Arizona’s Congressional Districts, the top concentration of these new voters is in AZ-08 and AZ-05, at 14.93% and 14.54% of the 88,700 voters. At the other end of the spectrum, voters who have voted in all of the past four general elections are a staggering 584,100 of returned ballots and are mostly Republican, with the GOP having a 48.57% share.

*New voters are voters who have not voted in any of the last four general elections.

Election Day Voters

With today being the last day for voters to turn in early ballots and the last major early ballot reports coming out by the end of the week, the focus is turning to Election Day voters. Registered voters who have not requested an early ballot total about 1.2 million. Republicans still hold the advantage here with 27.27% of these voters being registered Republicans. If we look specifically at voters who are likely to turn out based on their general election voting history, the Republican advantage grows to +23.5 percentage points as they have a 50.88% share of these 122,637 voters who have voted in all of the previous four elections. The highest concentration of these voters is in Arizona’s Congressional Districts 02 and 04, with just over 11,000 of these highly likely voters being registered Republicans.

The possibility of early ballots being returned at polling places on November 6th also presents yet another large group of potential voters, totaling just above 1.4 million. These remaining ballots have a slight Democratic advantage, with Democrats holding a 32.95% share compared to a Republican 32.04% share. Looking just at highly likely voters who have voted in three or four of the past four general elections, this advantage flips with the Republican advantage growing to 11.85 points at a 43.96% share of 436,670 ballots.

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement: “We started this year anticipating a blue wave scenario with pundits predicting Republicans would have a 4-5% ballot advantage.  But now, as we look at early voting, it’s very clear that this blue wave scenario just isn’t happening.  Total turnout numbers are only slightly below 2016, which is even more instructive than the current Republican ballot advantage.  The record turnout is causing the total raw Republican ballot advantage to be much higher than both 2016 and 2014, giving Republicans a strong advantage going into election day.  Since they make up a little more than 50% of likely Election Day voters, it is going to be very difficult for Democrats to turn that advantage around.”

Overall, we are looking at a record-turnout election where both Republicans and Democrats are energized to vote.  Over the next six days, we will continue to track returns and trends to better predict election day results.  Follow the daily updates at dataorbital.com.

Latest Arizona Political Videos

Wendy Rogers recently released this political ad:

ABC 15 reviews Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction candidates, Kathy Hoffman (D) and Frank Riggs (R).

Martha McSally welcomes Iowa Senator Joni Ernst to Arizona GOP campaign event to talk global security.

Martha McSally welcomes South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham at Arizona GOP event.

Poll: Jan Brewer and Grant Woods

POLL: Former Governor Jan Brewer leads former Attorney General Grant Woods in latest 2020 US Senate Poll


“These two are both ones to watch as jockeying starts for the Arizona Senate race. Whether or not these two run, one thing is for certain – we will not be lacking people lining up on either side of the aisle.” – Chief Pollster and Managing Partner, OHPI

Jan Brewer favored by 9 points.
Of likely Arizona voters, 47% favor Brewer, while 38% find her unfavorable. Arizona’s former governor also has 85% name identification.

Grant Woods not well-known by Arizonans.

Woods is still not well-known, with almost half of people saying they have no opinion of him, at 48%. Of those who have an opinion, he is above water almost two to one.

Brewer is favored most among Republican women.
Among Republican women, Brewer is favored by +62 points. This is much higher than Republican men, at +49 points, providing a possible edge in a Republican primary.

28-point​ split among Democrats on Woods’ name recognition.
Among Democrats’ likely base, voters 54 years old or younger have a 27% favorable rating of Woods. Older Democrats have a 55% positive opinion, which is a 28-point gap. Woods also performs well with older Independents, at 43%.

Methodology: This 42% cell phone and 58% landline poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on October 22, 2018 and October 23, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding. Poll report for the General Election poll can be viewed here.

Breaking: Senate Dead Heat and Dominant Ducey

 

High Ground

McSally ahead by 1-point while Ducey cruising by 19 points in HighGround’s latest statewide survey

PHOENIX (October 29, 2018) – With only a few days left until the recommended deadline to mail in ballots, the top two candidates in the race for the United States Senate are locked in a dead heat with only one point separating them.  The latest survey from HighGround Public Affairs shows Congresswoman Martha McSally with a slight lead over Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema.

Q. If the election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Martha McSally, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, Green Candidate Angela Green?

46.5% Martha McSally
45.3% Kyrsten Sinema
3.5% Angela Green
4.8% Don’t know, Refused

The N=400 survey was conducted among likely voters 10/26 through 10/28.  It was a statewide live caller survey calling both landlines and cell phones.  The margin of error is ±4.9%.  The partisan advantage was set at +10% GOP based on the current trend in ballot returns.  As of today, GOP advantage in Early Ballot returns is 10.6% with 986k ballots returned according to Garrett Archer from the Arizona Secretary of State’s office.

McSally held a strong lead among Republican respondents with 88.4% of the vote.  She also held strong leads among very conservatives (94.0%), somewhat conservative (65.6%) and voters 65+ (57.0%) who are overperforming in the current ballot returns.  For the moment, immigration has surpassed education as the top issue facing the state which has likely bolstered McSally’s performance based on her strongly articulated positions on border security.

On the other hand, Sinema held strong leads among Democrats with 88.6% of the vote and very liberal (94.7%) and somewhat liberal (85.3%).  She also has a strong lead with younger voters 29 and under (55.0%) – though their turnout so far has been lower than expected.

The race now appears hinged on who can make a final successful push among Females and Independent and unaffiliated voters.  The two candidates have split support among the two audiences.  Sinema has a 6-point lead among all female voters right now.  McSally and Sinema are virtually split among Independent and unaffiliated males (43.6% to 40.0% respectively).  However, McSally trails Sinema significantly among independent and unaffiliated females (12.2% to 61.0% respectively).

“Ultimately, the Senate race is well within the margin and likely won’t be decided on Tuesday night.  This election will come down to voter turnout and every ballot cast or dropped off on Election Day,” said Paul Bentz, Sr. Vice President of Research and Strategy at HighGround, Inc., “We have said all along that this race will be decided by female voters and Independent and unaffiliated voters.  Depending on who decides to show up, it will likely make the difference in this race.”

On the other hand, bolstered by an upward trend in the direction of the state and a faltering campaign by his opponent, Governor Ducey appears to be cruising to victory with a 19-point lead over Democratic Challenger David Garcia.

Q. If the election for Arizona Governor were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Doug Ducey, Democrat David Garcia, or Green Candidate Angel Torres?

54.8% Doug Ducey
35.3% David Garcia
3.5% Angel Torres
6.5% Don’t know, Refused

Ducey holds commanding leads among Republican voters 89.5% as well as garnering an 11.5% lead among Independent and unaffiliated voters.  His backing of Proposition 123 and his 20% teacher raise appeared to help him maintain credibility and deflect his opponent’s attacks on education.  Ducey holds leads among male voters (57.3% to 31.3%) as well as female voters (52.4% to 38.9%)  Garcia holds significant leads in Democrats with 75.0%, but still nearly 14 points lower than Sinema.  He also has garnered support from the Very Liberal (89.5%) and the Somewhat Liberal (73.5%) but has failed to gain as much the crossover appeal he experienced in his previous race for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Bentz concluded, “The Garcia and Sinema races are posed to go down as the textbook ‘good idea/bad idea’ examples for how a Democrat should run a statewide election in the State of Arizona.  It was impossible for Garcia to survive his swing to the far left to try to motivate a higher progressive turnout.  Meanwhile, Sinema has masterfully crafted a shift in her persona (without having to articulate very many positions) that heretofore has put her in a position to win.  She has come under attack the past few weeks for that very lack of substance, but she still has a shot – depending on turnout.  The Garcia campaign, on the other hand, has very little hope with just a week left before Election Day.”

About the Survey

The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2018 General Election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.  The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users.  The partisan advantage was set at +10% GOP based on the current trend in ballot returns.  The margin of error is ±4.9%.

Q. In general, would you say that the State of Arizona is heading in the right direction, or the wrong direction? [Right/Wrong]

21.0% Definitely right direction
29.8% Probably right direction
13.0% Probably wrong direction
14.3% Definitely wrong direction
22.0% Don’t Know, Refused

Q. What do you consider to be the top issue facing the State of Arizona today?  [Randomize]

38.3% Immigration and Border Issues
34.8% Education
9.0% Healthcare
6.5% Jobs and the Economy
3.0% State Budget
2.8% Other
2.5% Don’t Know, Refused
1.8% Taxes
1.5% Transportation

Q. If the election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Martha McSally, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, Green Candidate Angela Green?

46.5% Martha McSally
45.3% Kyrsten Sinema
3.5% Angela Green
4.8% Don’t know, Refused

Q. If the election for Arizona Governor were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Doug Ducey, Democrat David Garcia, or Green Candidate Angel Torres?

54.8% Doug Ducey
35.3% David Garcia
3.5% Angel Torres
6.5% Don’t know, Refused

The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. HighGround “nailed” the Prop 123 election results within 0.2% of the outcome prior to the May 2016 Special election.  Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.

View this article on HighGround.

How to Vote on Judges in Arizona for the 2018 General Election

Updated at 5:45 on Wednesday, October 24, 2018

We get a lot of requests about how to vote for the judges up for retention here in Arizona. We try to collect that information but it does take time and research.

In the past, we have posted lists and sometimes the names on those lists carry over to the current election.

The 2018 General Election is extremely important when voting for judges. Some of these judges have histories and some of them have futures. We try to get that information to you.

As of Sunday, October 21st, here is what we currently know.

As we gather more information, we will update this list.

You may also visit Center for Arizona’s voting guide at AZVoterGuide.com to find information on judges and other candidates.

ARIZONA SUPREME COURT

Vote to RETAIN both Clint Bolick and John Pelander.

The radical left has targeted both these men as an act of revenge for a decision on the Invest in Ed ballot measure that was removed from the ballot. WHILE A DECISION WAS ISSUED ON THE RULING, HOW EACH JUSTICE VOTED WAS NOT RELEASED; THEREFORE, NO ONE KNOWS HOW EITHER JUSTICE BOLICK OR JUSTICE PELANDER VOTED.

VOTE TO RETAIN CLINT BOLICK AND JOHN PELANDER to the Arizona Supreme Court.

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ARIZONA COURT OF APPEALS

Vote YES to retain the following judges:

Philip Espinosa
Christopher Staring

Vote NO to retain the following judges:

Peter Swann
Peter Eckerstrom

======

MARICOPA COUNTY SUPERIOR COURT

Vote YES to retain the following judges:

Brad H. Astrowsky
Alison Bachus
Cynthia J Bailey
Roger E. Brodman
Gregory Como
Janice K. Crawford
Jennifer Green
Michael J. Herrod
Erin Otis
Susanna C. Pineda
Laura Reckart
Joan M. Sinclair
Howard Sukenic
Pamela Hearn Svoboda
Danielle J. Viola

Vote NO to retain the following judges:

Arthur T. Anderson
Janet E. Barton
Dawn Bergin
Mark H. Brain
Katherine “Kay” Cooper
David O. Cunanan
Sally Schneider Duncan
Dean M. Fink
George H. Foster
Warren J. Granville
Joseph C. Kreamer
Rosa Mroz
Sam J. Myers
Karen L. O’Connor
Jay M. Polk
John Christian Rea
Randall H. Warner
Joseph C. Welty

Wendy Rogers Discusses Campaign for AZ01 on Breitbart

In a recent Breitbart News Saturday interview, Republican Wendy Rogers shows herself highly focused in reclaiming Arizona’s first congressional district.

Wendy Rogers

Wendy Rogers meets with a crowd of supporters at Sammy’s Mexican Grill in Catalina, AZ

Rogers, who is a retired US Air Force lieutenant colonel, spoke with Matt Boyle from Breitbart for almost 20 minutes detailing her background, the success of the campaign, the failures of Democrat Tom O’Halleran and what’s at stake in this critical US House race.

The retired Colonel Rogers emphasized that Democrats are scrambling to hold the seat currently held by O’Halleran with over $1.5 million in campaign attacks. She also noted that she has had to take protection everywhere she goes on the campaign trail even taking out an order of protection against a belligerent Democrat stalker.

“Our entire nation is hanging by the slender thread that runs through the House of Representatives,” Rogers said. She stressed that if given the chance, a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives could push for impeachment of President Trump. She went on to state, “…the feeling in my district is that we are at a pivot point, that the future of the country rests on whether or not our president is going to remain president. I tell people, we have the Supreme Court, we have the Senate, we have the presidency, but if we don’t hold the House, we are in for a just—a complete devolution and degradation of due process because of exactly what was on display this past week.”

The interview aired Saturday, October 6 on SiriusXM Patriot 125 but you can listen to the full interview here.

For more information on Wendy Rogers’ campaign, visit her website at WendyRogers.org

(Special shout out to Alana Mastrangelo for her article on Breitbart.)

Poll Shows Republican Wendy Rogers Ahead of Democrat Tom O’Halleran in CD-1

A recently IVR telephone survey released by the Wendy Rogers campaign shows the Republican nominee pulling ahead of Democrat Tom O’Halleran in the battle for Arizona’s first congressional district.

Out of 738 landline responses, Rogers polled 39.44% compared to O’Halleran’s 36.23% with 24.33% undecided. The margin of error is +/-4% with calls being made between September 27-28.

These numbers came as a surprise to political insiders but especially the Democrat political machine which is spending millions of dollars attempting to defend congressional seats.

Republican activists are beginning to call polling results like this and across the country, the “Kavanaugh Effect” as Americans opinions shift in support of President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh. This shift began to occur when the Senate Judiciary Committee heard conflicting testimony from Kavanaugh’s accuser, Christine Blasey Ford that was later refuted by experts.

While this effect may be impacting Arizona’s CD-1 race, voters are also showing their support for President Trump’s supporters like Wendy Rogers who endorsed Trump early in the 2016 Presidential Primary.

President Trump is expected to visit Arizona in October in rallies supporting Republican candidates.

Rogers, who is known as one of the most persistent and hardest working candidates has a tough ad running against O’Halleran warning voters that Democrats like O’Halleran will move to impeach President Trump if they take the majority in Congress.

In a statement issued by the campaign, Rogers said, “I can tell you that despite millions of dollars spent against Wendy by the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee, Super PACs, and Invisible Tom’s campaign, nothing they are doing is working.”

The General Election is November 6th with early ballots being mailed on October 10th.