2011 Predictions


Happy New Years to all our readers!

We now get to make those annual predictions of what we expect to take place on the political scene here in Arizona over the next year. I’ll lead off the post with a handful of my own.

Please feel free to comment on mine and throw a few of your own out for discussion in the comments.

The State Budget will remain in turmoil. Despite supermajorities in both houses by the GOP, Republicans will be divided on where to make appropriate budget cuts. The Arizona Education Association will threaten, bully and manipulate Republicans in swing districts to avoid touching that portion of the budget that funds education (a lot). The Governor will attempt to assuage both sides of the party and the teachers union and other state-funded lobbies leading to more chaos. This will be a classic triangulation maneuver. A schism will likely form between House and Senate leadership over this issue. Senate leadership will have to deal with a handful of education-backed senators who will force a compromise. The legislative session will run long while the agenda will be tumultuous. Watch for the typical fear, loathing and hyperbole from the left and unions.

Immigration will remain a prominent issue but will be forced to take a lower priority on the legislative agenda. Supporters of Birthright Citizenship will be frustrated by the pace of action and will threaten to run a statewide initiative in 2012.

Kyrsten Sinema will rise as the most prominent, vocal, outspoken and appealing leader in the Democratic party. Because she serves in a “safe” district, she will have the luxury to say what’s on her mind and not care what anyone thinks. This will be real drama for the media and political pundits as they run to Kyrsten any time they need a quote. She will be one very busy Democrat.

Mitt Romney will be the first to form a presidential team in the State of Arizona. Based with east valley leadership, Romney will make several trips to Arizona setting up the most formidable and well organized campaigns in the State of Arizona. Other presidential campaign teams will struggle to gain a foothold in the State. Palin will decide against a run.

The new 9th Congressional District will be formed in the east side of the state. It will take in the east valley as it’s primary population base and will cut all the way across to the eastern border with New Mexico. CD-1 will have it’s lower eastern section lopped off and Pinal County will form a major part of the district. CD-7 will lose a section of the west valley. CD-6 will consolidate further north and may edge into CD-5. CD-4 will become more concentrated to the Central Phoenix area.

The race for CD-9 will see several east valley names jump in. Among those: Jeff Smith, Chuck Gray, Paul Babeu, and Bryan Martyn. Kirk Adams will entertain the possibility but will be a hold out based on where the lines are drawn and the outcome of the State Budget crisis.

The GOP Congressional delegation will hold strong to the principles they were elected. However, frustration will mount over the slow-pace and resistance found in the Senate. The challenge to the House-controlled GOP will be to stay focused on passing legislation and not attacking President Obama.

Rob Haney will win another term as Maricopa County Chairman. Bruce Ash will be the next Arizona Republican Party Chairman. Democrats will continue to flounder over who is really running their party.

The Arizona TEA Party movement will finally realize it needs to fully inject itself into the GOP party process if it wants to impact election outcomes.

One more. The Arizona Legislature will explore avenues to tax medicinal marijuana thus creating an inherent interest in keeping it around forever.

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Now it’s your turn…


Comments

  1. Bobby Baby says:

    Most of what you are “predicting” is a no-brainer, i.e., Kyrsten Sinema being the darling of the media… How about going out on the limb for a change???

  2. Veritas Vincit says:

    There are only 2 solutions to the budget crisis: cut spending or increase taxation on an economy in recession. Oh, I forgot… sock-it to those evil rich people; they’ll pay for their success.

    Hmmm… Lemme see, the family (state revenues) income drops by 30% and the teenagers (state agencies) want to increase their allowances by 6% as if nothing has changed. So we strong-arm that rich uncle in Florida to bail us out. That is until he says no and moves off-shore.

    Maybe Kyrsten Sinema has a solution? Haven’t heard one from her lately… lots of comments but no solutions.

  3. Here’s a little more difficult prediction. It’s not as much related to 2011 as to 2012, but I think that Jeff Flake (if he runs again) will lose the Republican Primary in 2012.

    His support for openly gay members in the Armed Forces will not be accepted by the very socially conservative voters that he represents. This will be a big issue & it might be the Family Research Coucil & other groups that spend the money to get the message out that Flake is no longer reliable when it comes to social issues for conservatives.

    You add upset social conservatives to area voters who already believe Flake is dead wrong about illegal immigration, & Flake’s support goes down dramatically. Plus, he’s been there way longer than he said he would be & people don’t like politicians who lie.

  4. I also think that Russell Pearce is exactly the right person who can lead the State Legislature in making the tough decisions on cuts to the State budget. We’ve been overspending for far too long & our budget needs to come back in line. We need to get back to basic priorities & then we can look at which other programs should remain funded.

  5. Veritas Vincit says:

    Klute said; “Democrats need to offer one? ”

    That’s the cowards way out. Since your hero Nappy ran away from the mess she created (with the help of a handful of RINOs), there has been a silence among Democrats as to solutions.

    Plenty of criticism, but little in the way of workable constructive solutions other than to expand the tax system in the name of “closing the loopholes”.

    The budget is simple: in 2005/06 revenues matched expenses, so in 2011/12 revenues are projected to be very close to those of 2005/06 therefore spending must match that of 2005/06 when Jake Flake was Speaker and proposed a balanced budget.

    Of course it was a handful of RINOs who jumped the fence to Nappy’s side and began the era of overspending.

  6. Tom Walker says:

    I would not count Marty Hermanson out.
    I was for Mr. Bruce Ash but changed my mind
    last week. Why, we need a change. I was
    happy Mr. Randy Pullen did not make the
    State Committeeman cut,due to his lack of
    leadership and Political crap. Bruce Ash
    is smart but his Political crap is the same
    as Mr. Pullens. He will Nominate Mr. Pullen
    for his position if he wins. This is the
    deal. They do not care about the people or
    party, it’s about the power only and we all
    need to stick together. Rob Haney is part
    of this deal. The 3 amigos need to go.
    Mr. Hermanson, is not about Political crap.
    He sincerley cares about the party and
    people. I have been watching him. He is
    who we need. He supports the Tea Party,
    does not endorse, he is nuetral, he is
    likeable, and he raises money. This
    Gentleman does not have any baggage or
    agenda. Enough of Randy, Bruce, and
    Rob. Enough of Brett Mecum who would also
    be back if Bruce is elected. Enough.

  7. My prediction is that things were largely remain the same as this past year.

    One area of surprise for consrvatives will be the state budget. The legislature will attempt to rely on more gimmicks except this year they will try things that are patently illegal, all to avoid admitting that there is very little left to cut that will not come back to bite them.

  8. Anna Ables says:

    The Arizona GOP will need to realize that they need to inject themselves into the Non-Partisan Tea Party movement – not the other way around. It will be the Independents who will decide the 2012 elections. The Tea Party must stay independent/non-partisan to draw those voters into the mindset of Fiscal Responsibility, Limited Government and a Free Market. You can’t do that if people believe that the GOP has taken control. It would do nothing more than to show that Astroturf Pelosi and the leftist’s were correct when they said that the Tea Party was an arm of the GOP. We can only grow by staying non-partisan and therefore keeping the integrity of our movement.

  9. Lisa Montgomery says:

    I predict Independents will Thrive,
    Tea Party will diminish, Brett Mecum will
    be our next RNC Replacing Bruce – nominated
    by Bruce Ash, Mitt Romney will run for
    President, Sara Palin will not, Rob Haney
    will win Chair, Tight race between Bruce
    and Marty, Russell Pearce will save
    Arizona, and our State Budget will become
    worse.

  10. The more people start predicting palin doesn’t run the more I think she will run. She loves doing things just to upset the apple cart and try and prove others wrong.

    As the chorus of people who say she won’t run grows, I think the more likely she decides to do it

    Also my prediction the budget gets way worse under the GOP, because of way to much in fighting on what to do.

    Also romney will be the front runner heading into the 2012 primaries.

  11. Goodyear GOP says:

    Tom Walker “changed his mind last week” about Bruce Ash and this week is parroting the same ol’ Team Marty attack lines? Very disappointing coming from the candidate who claims he is running to unite us. And Tom’s reason? The same absurd lie that Bruce Ash will nominate Randy Pullen as National Committeeman. Ash doesn’t get to nominate his replacement and everyone knows that you have to be a State Committeeman to be a National Committeeman. Randy Pullen is not a State Committeeman, so anyone who tries to spin that attack line is just lying to you. Knock it off Tom. Your attacks on Pullen, Haney, Ash and the rest makes it obvious where you are coming from politically and it certainly has nothing to do with the Tea Party.

    Do you honestly imagine you can steer the Tea Party members by posing as one of them? Are you unaware that the Tea Party just crushed Marty Hermanson when he ran for County Chairman again last month? Why does someone run for County Chair and State Chair at the same time? He needed a backup plan? Loves having a title? In any case, he got shellacked by the Tea Party.

    On another topic, does anyone know if Vernon Parker is still running? I heard he was dropping out but haven’t seen anything to confirm that.

  12. Sure about that? says:

    Goodyear GOP – I’m not campaigning for Marty but I think you may have your facts wrong. Doesn’t seem like Marty ran for the County chair:

    http://www.pinalcountygop.org/

  13. Lisa Wilcox says:

    To Goodyear Gop:

    Marty Hermanson did not run for re-election
    as County Chair. He stepped down because
    he is running for State Chair. He did not
    think it was right to run for both. Bruce
    Ash has not stepped down from his position
    as he is running for both. Marty is not
    about titles. If you knew him very well,
    you would know that. He is a sincere
    Gentleman that truly cares about his party.
    I guess Bruce is the one that is not
    confident enough to step down from his
    position. I’m not on either side but I do
    know Marty and he always does the right thing.

  14. Jim Cox, Jr. says:

    Goodyear GOP

    I was at the Pinal County Election
    meeting and Marty was not running for
    re-election. If he did, he had the votes.

    The “backroom deals” with Randy, Bruce,
    Rob, and Brett Mecum are true though.
    There trying very hard to hide it and not be
    seen together anymore but believe me, it is
    true.

  15. I predict Michael Crow will write an op-ed proposing the state give an instant diploma to any high school junior who pledges to attend a state university or community college for at least two years. This will drop $7k per year, per student, off the general fund since there’s no “senior year.” And it will guarantee the student pays about $8k per year for tuition, or a net of $23k per student. With something like 100k high school juniors statewide, if everyone did it, it adds up to $2.3 billion PER YEAR in savings.

    A smart Republican will point out that even without the ASU part, it would still save $800 million each year. Brewer will remember the SB1070 lesson, do polling for three days, and then sign the bill.

  16. Goodyear GOP says:

    Good to know about the Pinal election, thanks for the update. Still noticing that lots of pro-Marty posts contain attacks on Bruce Ash, so I guess we know who the frontrunner is. But it still doesn’t strike me as very pro-unity.

    I sure hope Marty’s folks don’t splinter conservatives and let that Carmichael guy get through.

  17. Carmen Garcia says:

    Goodyear GOP

    Happy New Year. I don’t think there attacks on Bruce but letting people know what is going on.
    Bruce just endorsed Rob Haney which is no surprise there since it is a team, Rob Haney, Randy
    Pullen and Bruce Ash. They all want back in power and this is the deal, there all going to help
    each other get back in. It’s about power. I don’t know Marty Hermanson very well but I do think
    we need somebody new. What turned me off about Bruce is in his position, he should not be
    endorsing. He is not nuetral and is playing favorites. He is dividing the party already!! He
    lost my vote on this.

  18. Hey! We finally got a chance to send the homosexual activists’ pal Jeff Flake packing!

    NO MORE FLAKE!

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