DID CENSUS BUREAU DELIBERATELY DISTORT ARIZONA’S CENSUS DATA?


          There was much fanfare this week as the Census Bureau unveiled the official Census figures before the end of the year, as required by law. Everyone here in Arizona was paying particularly close attention.  There was certainty that Arizona would pick up one legislative seat to nine, and who knows perhaps a 10th?

          Of course, as has been well detailed, there was a slowdown in settlement here in Arizona by illegal aliens after the 2004 proposition requiring employer sanctions for hiring illegal aliens and requiring proof of citizenship for voter registration. This law perhaps single handedly derailed any opportunity, in fact most certainly prevented Arizona from picking up two additional seats instead of just one.

          What can’t be explained however, is the incredible drop in population from the July 2009 estimates from the US Census Bureau when contrasted with the Official Census as of April 1, 2010; the figures that were just released this week.  Here are the gory details:

          According to Quick Facts, Arizona’s estimated July 2009 population was 6,595,778. The population change was 28.6%, a very healthy increase.  HOWEVER, the “Official” Census figures showed Arizona’s population on April 1st this year to be only 6,392,017!  This is a precipitous drop of over 203,000 people in Arizona, and only a 24.6% change from 2000!  Now when you compare the difference for any other state in our region, or across the country, no other state had any population drop! Oops! The exception is Michigan, which did show a loss of 83 thousand people in the same time. That’s not surprising, since the auto industry has been demolished by the Obama and the Unions. Now just NW of Arizona in Nevada, the fastest growing state in the nation; in spite of the Nation’s highest unemployment rate at 14.3% STILL gained 57 thousand people in this same time that Arizona lost.  The facts don’t lie, so WHY would there be such a change? Don’t take my word for it look at the websites and compare the figures for yourself.

http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/index.php     http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html

          Well, obviously the answer is wrapped around the most significant legislation in 2010, SB1070, which required the state police departments and County sheriff’s offices, to verify identity and citizenship of anyone who is stopped for some other violation.  Certainly this legislation pushed the Illegal Immigration battle to the forefront of the National debate.  However, the Legislature did NOT EVEN PASS the law until April 19th and the governor signed it on April 23rd! So IF the Census bureau figures are based on April 1st population and they show such a huge drop in population BEFORE April first, ISN’T it the cruelest of April Fool’s jokes?

          Now, WHO would EVER question the integrity of the Census Bureau? Well let me remind you of one crucial fact: The Obama administration took the control of the Census away from the Commerce Department, moving it to the White House.  So I ask, WHO would EVER question the integrity of the White House!!??

          Yes, there were recent news reports that we’d lose population due to SB1070, perhaps as much as 100K  (Many in Arizona might say, ’Good Riddance!’).  But 200K? And BEFORE the bill even passed? Give me a Break!  Why should we trust a bureaucracy and the Political Party that encourages IRS to investigate Non-Profits who oppose abortion, and prosecutes actors while ignoring the Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner? This is the administration that is ready to hire over 16,000 new IRS agents to enforce the Health Care bill, threatens to shut down the Internet and demands that Fox News and Glenn Beck to be silenced. Why WOULD we trust anything they tell us?

          SO, while we were indeed in the hunt for that elusive tenth Congressional seat, perhaps even passing Washington, and having indeed passed Massachusetts and Indiana in population; this White House controlled Census now shows us losing 203K in nine short months. All BEFORE SB1070 became law. Who woulda thunk it!?


Comments

  1. Ummm…yeah. It was all a massive conspiracy against Arizona.

    It couldn’t have had with the Republican jihad against anyone with skin darker than a golfer’s tan.

    It couldn’t have had anything to do with the cratering of Arizona’s economy.

    It couldn’t have had anything to do with the tea party/black helicopters crowd telling everyone that the Census was a liberal conspiracy to sap their vital bodily fluids (or something like that) and urging people to forego responding to the mailed census forms and to ignore census workers.

    Really.

    Seriously, walk around your neighborhood. In most parts of the state, significant numbers of houses that were once homes are empty shells.

    Arizona’s population *has* decreased from its housing bubble peak.

    Crying about a made up “conspiracy” doesn’t change that fact.

  2. First of all, weren’t we losing illegals starting from the time the employer sanction bill passed a couple of years ago? The exodus didn’t just start with SB1070.

    Second, the quickfacts link says the estimate is based in part on “housing units”. Considering all the new housing built and now unoccupied, it’s no wonder the estimate was faulty.

  3. something tells me Samuel Adams on this site is also called wanumba

  4. Radical American Patriot says:

    Well Craig, Couldn’t have been better said by any liberal. To hell with the facts, I’ll make up my own theory! You sound just like Bawny Fwank when he said that there was nothing wrong with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac!

    I looked at the numbers and Samuel Adams is right. The difference is huge. Of course to a ‘Kool-aid” drinker like you and your fellow Obamatrons, everything Van Jones and Bill Ayers says is ‘gospel’!

    Let me ask you, was Arizona the ONLY state that had a housing bubble? Give me a break!

  5. Samuel Adams says:

    Well, it’s great to see the liberals DO read this site!

    First, @JJ and Craig: The housing crisis affected ALL of the country, NOT just Arizona! Again look at the numbers re: Nevada.

    Secondly JJ as you so aptly stated the estimate is based in PART on housing units. Other factors are vital statistics, like live births vs. deaths. Also voter registrations indicate otherwise.

    Also, the estimates were VERY close in EVERY other state in the Union! Yes, as I mentioned Prop 200 was passed in 2004 and did slow population growth somewhat. HOWEVER, from 2005 through 2007 growth was still phenomenal in Arizona; regardless of that Citizen’s Initiative. Please review all the facts, not the ones convenient to your theories.

    Lastly, @johnny: No, I’m not wanumba, Thanks tho! He’s an American Patriot!

  6. Apparently ‘Samuel Adams’ and RAP haven’t bothered to look very deeply into how these estimates are done. For instance, the census states there is a lag time of up to two years because of the data sources they are using. Also, they have no way of tracking illegal immigration so these are not figured into the estimates other than the base number derived from the previous census.

  7. Radical American Patriot says:

    @theklute: LOLOLOL! Do you remember the guy with the long trenchcoat, chasing VanDamme in “Time Cop”? You remind me of him, without the braun. But that was all he had!

    @todd: There are. of course, lag times. One key to statistical analysis is the variances. The change in Arizona’s figures from 2009 to April 2010 is a HUGE outlier. (‘m sure you and klutz or whomever, are experts and you’ve done your analysis. Explain WHY there’s such a huge variance between the change in AZ’s figures versus EVERY OTHER STATE!!

  8. RAP and Sam Adams: Yes, the housing bubble and ensuing crash affected the entire country. But there were few states affected as harshly as Arizona (Nevada may have been hit harder, but I think that’s it).

    RAP: When the primary rhetorical supports for your points are epithets, straw-men, and overuse of CAPS, you’ve already lost all credibility. On the other hand, though, at least you didn’t use ALL CAPS.

    Sam Adams: I and many liberals have always read this site. Most of the posts used to be well-written and thoughtful. We’d disagree with them, but we’d also learn from them.

    Now, it’s mostly just name-calling and vitriol.

  9. …………………
    johnny Says:
    December 23rd, 2010 at 7:44 pm
    something tells me Samuel Adams on this site is also called wanumba
    ……………….

    Really? What something is that? I already have a dreaded anonymous nic, I don’t need to post under another, unlike a few who have already done on this site. I’m disappointed that you’re not sharp enough to detect this is not my type of work.

    Besides, I don’t agree with the commentary.
    Plenty of people started packing their bags before SB1070 became law. Proof: The Arizona Republic had a two-tissue-box sob story of a entire caravan of illegals quitting Arizona in the dead of night before SB1070 … headed not for Mexico, but across 2,000 miles of risky American interstates for sanctuary cities like Philadelphia.

    How about that? It’s so racist in the USA for illegals, they’d rather risk their families on a cross-country five day road trip, exposed by gas stops and fast food meals than bolt to the safety of the homeland, just two hours or less away.

    Unless of course the Arizona Republic story was just political fiction, of course… the bit about the wailing children having to leave the Chihauhua puppies behind seemed to be pushing the sterotype envelope a bit.

    And how did the Arizona Republic reporter justify riding along with what he KNEW was a convoy of illegals, driving past state troopers and sheriff’s deputies and not saying anything? Like, isn’t that “accessory?” Or maybe he just found it easier to sit at the computer and write up a “fake but accurate” story that played to Liberal’s noxious and lazy stereotypes about mean ol’ “Conservatives”? It’s SO EASY to do that, “facts” just mess up the narrative.

  10. ……………….
    Samuel Adams Says:
    December 23rd, 2010 at 8:30 pm
    No, I’m not wanumba, Thanks tho! He’s an American Patriot!
    ……………..

    A nice cold beer for you!

  11. Wanumba,

    It seemed like your work… It was a story of how arizona was getting screwed by things happening behind the scenes at the white house. Is it really a stretch for me to think that’s you.

    I’m glad you used some common sense on this, maybe you are better than I thought :)

  12. You’ll appreciate me more as time goes by and you discover I was right. I NEVER feed you ridiculous stories about illegal Mexican families fleeing Arizona for Pennsylvania via UTAH (what’s wrong with I-40? It’s shorter to PA.) and having to leave their kids’ wee Chihuahua puppies behind because of SB1070, like the AZ Republic does.

    Oh, maybe they had to take a northern interstate like I-70 because I-40 cuts thru Oklahoma and THERE the cops have been checking for illegals for YEARS. Guess illegals know EXACTLY what they’re doing after all.

  13. By turning the comments off on the Haney post above this, it looks like someone is afraid of something. I wonder what it could be.

  14. Im very disappointed to find out that wanumba reads the liberal flagship AZ Republic. But he is right, there were stories about the illegal migration, but there were also several economists that reported to govt agencies that the estimates were going to be wrong because of all the investor homes and the housing bubble. Those things (using inflated housing figures as estimates of pop growth) were specific to AZ. I dont know if other states made the same mistake.
    The BIG story here is how Obamas local operatives used the Tea Party to spread lots of fear of Census counters so real conservatives would not be counted. The tea party was infiltrated and manipulated and many did not get counted because Obama was going to use the info against them. That will reduce the pop count in conservative areas. Why did we let this happen wanumba?

  15. ………………
    Fred Says:
    December 24th, 2010 at 9:41 am
    Im very disappointed to find out that wanumba reads the liberal flagship AZ Republic. But he is right
    ………………

    Pretty awesome, eh, proof that one can safely read the AZ Republic in small doses and still be right.

  16. Fred Says:
    December 24th, 2010 at 9:41 am
    ……………….

    “That will reduce the pop count in conservative areas. Why did we let this happen wanumba?”
    ………………………..

    First thing to actually establish is: Did it actually happen that way or is this a conjecture?

    You suggesting there are like, “Conservative enclaves” or something?

  17. So, why do Obama and the Democrats unconstitutionally boycott Arizona when Oklahoma enforces the very same, and has been for a long time?

  18. …………………..
    Joe Says:
    December 24th, 2010 at 8:35 am
    By turning the comments off on the Haney post above this, it looks like someone is afraid of something. I wonder what it could be.
    ……………….

    Perhaps gratuitous drivel?

  19. Veritas Vincit says:

    Shane, fire this idiot.

    The 2009 “projections” use a 2000 Census baseline from which to forecast statistical increased using a computer model. The further you move from your baseline, the more distorted the figures become. No self-respecting marketing or demographic firm bothers to use any Census “projection” beyond 7 years from the baseline.

    No government conspiracy, just old fashioned reconciling of computer projections with an actual hand count.

    That’s why we do a hand count every 10 years.

    Shane, fire this dolt. He should be writing for Alex Jones.

  20. Veritas Vincit says:

    Since the economic crash in Arizona, the job loss rate has approached 300,000. Translate that into population loss.

  21. Samuel Adams says:

    Veritas,

    I used to think that your posts were both rational and well thought out. Now, you call people names and you order Shane to ‘fire’ someone!?

    As a person with some statistical experience and demographic understanding, I did do some due diligence. Also the figures that the Census Bureau uses is NOT just based on the previous decennial count. IT takes into account the vital statistics in each county, both births and deaths. They also take into account employment, real estate and other databases to do estimates. These estimates are so accurate, that Counties use them for a variety of different functions BETWEEN the Census every ten years.

    I surveyed the figures from ALL over the country, Veritas. I compared the figures from the Census’ own database contrasting these figures from the July 2009 estimates with the actual figures reported for over 20% of the states. The variation from states like Nevada, Michigan, Washington and others were incredibly significant.

    Are you claiming that Arizona is the ONLY state with job loss? What about Nevada or Michigan, among many that have far worse unemployment numbers. Are we the ONLY state with a collapse in the mortgage market? Get real! Did you realize that IF Arizona had shown a normalized gain like the other states, that we might have even passed Washington, or at least had enough population increase to warrant a 10th Congressional District?

    VV, perhaps you shouldn’t be so hasty to make judgments without a complete analysis of the facts. Maybe you would find a warm welcome with the Jim Deakin campaign with such scurrilous and short-sited words!

  22. …………………..
    Samuel Adams Says:
    December 28th, 2010 at 9:17 pm
    “Did you realize that IF Arizona had shown a normalized gain like the other states, that we might have even passed Washington, or at least had enough population increase to warrant a 10th Congressional District?”
    ……………

    There is so much political fortune riding on such a thing that it’s fair enough and prudent to take a very close look at the numbers.
    It was Obama (DEMOCAT) who unConstitutionally started the harrass Arizona campaign, through blatently unConstitutional boycotts and judicial bullying designed to jack legal fees and freeze the law enforcement process, so the trust factor has evaporated.

  23. Veritas Vincit says:

    @Samuel Adams … Firms like Claritas and their PRIZM program don’t bother with census information out past the 7th year – and they deeply discount it. Most commercial demographers consider that data too far out of skew to be of true value.

    But you hit the nail on the head when you said “Counties”. Counties and other government agencies usually can’t afford Claritas and the more pricey demographic outlets.

    I suppose my knee jerk reaction was to the suggestion that there was something sinister about the differential between the actual and projected. The US Census Bureau isn’t that sophisticated.

    I apologize. I was in my “Red Queen” mode (Alice reference). Besides, for Shane to fire you he’d have to hire you… and, like the rest of us, we do this for grins.

    Oh and you know how to hurt someone… aligning me with that dolt Deakin – ouch

Speak Your Mind

*