As my analysis below will show, conservatives had some victories and suffered some losses. I think, in Arizona, the TEA Party was either too hyped or not as effective as it could have been. While some say that Arizona loves its incumbents (and that’s why some ratings groups like NFIB, RTL and NRA endorsed incumbents over challengers with higher scores), some newcomer candidates ran ineffective campaigns and that may be more to blame than a love of incumbency. While it may be a sign of becoming inured in “the system,” newcomers, if they want to win, simply have to learn how to campaign and do so effectively.

LD 1
The LD 1 Senate race was not contested, so Steve Pierce is our nominee. By all accounts, Mr. Pierce will be one of two major Senate President candidates. Russell Pearce being his opponent. On election night, I overheard Republican Party Executive Director Brett Mecum tell Republican Party Chairman Randy Pullen say that he believed that Russell Pearce had the votes to become Senate President. Since then, I believe I’ve seen one news article stating that Russell Pearce does not have the votes necessary. If Steve Pierce wins, we can expect the status quo to be maintained. He was one of the sponsors of the tax increase.

House Whip Andy Tobin won re-election. Karen Fann, a candidate Mr. Tobin recruited, beat Noel Campbell by about 3% or 1,400 votes. I understand that Mr. Campbell was the most conservative candidate in the race, but ran a lackluster campaign. Ms. Fann replaces Lucy Mason who was termed out. I can’t say I’m sad to see Ms. Mason go. She has been far less than an icon of conservatism. I can only hope that Ms. Fann votes to the right of Ms. Mason but I’m not too hopeful since Keith Sipmann labeled her as a Democrat in Disguise on his blog and she was one of the Republicans fundraising for Democrats at the Twelve in `10 fundraiser. As for the Whip, as I stated when I had him on Grassroots Interviews, I was disappointed that House leadership even allowed Prop. 100 on the floor. Mr. Tobin was gracious enough to concede that it was a fair criticism. When I went back to look at Mr. Tobin’s scores from Goldwater Institute, they were all lackluster. He scores about as well as Mason, Quelland, Reagan, Konopnicki, and Crandall and in the 2010 Goldwater scores, he’s almost always at the bottom among Republicans. I don’t think Mr. Tobin belongs in the conservative camp with scores like those and I have no understanding of how he got a PAChyderm endorsement.

Noel Campbell’s loss meant that conservatives didn’t get the optimal results.

LD 3
Doris Goodale and Nancy McLain won re-election to their House seats. Ray Cullsion was the only challenger. Ms. McLain’s 2009 Goldwater scores look like she does about as well as Driggs or Barto in the House. She scored well to the right of her seat-mate Goodale. While Ms. Goodale and Ms. McLain CLAIM they were anti-Prop. 100, they BOTH voted for it in the state legislature. Considering they don’t score well and they assured you’d suffer higher taxes, they should have been held accountable. I would have been willing to roll the dice on Cullison.

Looking at Goodale’s and McLain’s scores from Goldwater, I simply can’t call the House races a win for conservatives. McLain scores about as well as Nancy Barto and Goodale scores with Mason and Reagan. What LD 3 needs is clones of Ron Gould for the House seats.

LD 4
Scott Bundgaard won the Senate nomination rather handily, earning three times as many votes as either Tony Bouie or Shawn Kohner. Bouie had run for the House in LD 6 in 2008 and lost after being tagged as a moderate despite endorsements from Gorman, Shadegg, and Mike Pence. Kohner is a political newcomer and seems by all accounts a rather conservative guy. Scott has some detractors who will point out his flaws, but be that as it may, the voters chose him and this sets up an interesting situation in the legislature because Jack Harper and Judy Burges got 40% of the vote each and the others fought over the remaining 20%. Harper and Burges score extremely well by most conservative organizations, but with the difficulties between Bundgaard and Harper, one has to ask, are they going to kill each other’s bills or are they going to work together to advance the cause of conservatism no matter who might be the sponsor of a bill? Despite their flaws I actually like both Scott and Jack. I truly hope they both will not allow their personal differences get in the way of voting conservatively, even if one or the other is a sponsor or co-sponsor of a bill. I really want to call this a win for conservatives.

LD 5
Sylvia Allen beat the poster boy for RINO Republicans in the House Bill Konopnicki 55% to 44%. Konopnicki is disgusting and a prime example of everything that is wrong with moderates because he not only was the leader of the Sanctuary Six but he always scores about dead last among Republicans by conservative rating organizations. Let me ask, if conservatives are so horrid, why campaign as one? Konopnicki did his best to cast himself as the conservative in this race. I say if you’re a moderate, you should sing it loud and proud, not lie to the electorate. The truth is that the conventional wisdom demands that you run to the right in a Republican primary and Konopnicki wanted power so bad he’d lie, lie, lie just to get elected. I couldn’t be more thankful that LD 5 rejected the Burger Baron.

In the House races, Brenda Barton and Chester Crandell, who ran as a team with Sylvia Allen, defeated Konopnicki’s hand-picked candidate, Keith Alexander. LD 5 was an unmitigated win for conservatives since the most conservative candidates won. This is one of the few races where money didn’t matter as much. Konopnicki outspent Sylvia Allen by a ton.

LD 6
Lori Klein beat incumbent David Braswell by almost a 60-40 split. Braswell has drawn a ton of fire for being a moderate, yet his 2010 Goldwater scores were surprisingly high. He tied for 4th in the Senate on Education issues with Jack Harper. However, Braswell drew some fire for voting against a school choice bill, but Braswell defended the vote because the bill was too narrow and didn’t apply to all schools equally. On constitutional government issues, he tied for 5th with Thayer Verschoor. On economic regulation issues, he tied for 4th with Sylvia Allen. However, Mr. Braswell’s answer to me on meddling in the economy sounded an awful lot like he favored big government meddling in the economy with special breaks for business rather than an even low tax, low regulation, free market regime. On taxation and budgeting issues he tied for 4th with Jack Harper and Thayer Verschoor. Be that as it may, it is my understanding that the Maricopa Board of Supervisors demanded that their appointees support Prop. 100. His answers on Prop. 100 showed he wanted it both ways: he claimed he didn’t support it, but he supported the voters’ right to decide. Overall, Braswell scored as the 5th most conservative Senator and he beat out Thayer Verschoor. Now that Lori has defeated David, she’ll have to score very well with Goldwater to avoid an unfavorable comparison. I truly wish Lori the best of luck and I hope she makes Andy Biggs look like a communist by comparison.

Ms. Klein ran as a team with Carl Seel and David Fitzgerald. Unfortunately, Amanda Reeve, an incumbent moderate, took the greatest percentage of the vote. Reeve may have scored well with Goldwater on Education issues, but her votes quickly fall off on other issues. She was the lowest scoring member in LD 6 and she helped raise money for Democrats at the Twelve in `10 fundraiser. One might attribute her win to having the money to paper the district with mailers. By some accounts, she sent almost as many mail pieces as did Ben Quayle. Carl Seel had the second highest vote total in the House race, narrowly edging out his teammate David Fitzgerald. LD 6’s voters made a poor choice in Reeve. Amanda Reeve will continue to vote at cross purposes with Carl Seel.

LD 7
LD 7’s elections were almost a total disaster. “Sanctuary Six” Nancy Barto won with about 46% of the vote, almost half, and she was 13 points ahead of her closest rival, Ray Barnes. What’s really sad is that TEA Party candidate Brad Buch came in dead last…even behind the guy who was found to have forged his $5 qualifying contributions, Bob Green. In his defense, Mr. Buch was a newcomer and wasn’t knowledgeable about campaigning. I voted for Mr. Buch even though I never expected him to win. Why? Because he was the conservative and the other choices either weren’t palatable or I was skeptical of.

I believe name ID helped David Burnell Smith garner the most votes in the LD 7 House race. Despite Howard Levine’s write up of the LD 7 candidates, I don’t believe Mr. Smith was the most conservative candidate, probably in the top three, but not the most conservative. Other news articles showed Mr. Smith had some odd policy positions for a Republican, namely vilifying insurance companies and opposing tort reform. Be that as it may, with Nancy Barto’s win and Democrat in Disguise Heather Carter winning the other nomination, David Smith will be the lone conservative knight in LD 7. I was thoroughly disgusted that the two most conservative candidates (to my mind) came in 2nd and 3rd to last. Mike Farrar earned only 11% of the vote and Howard Sprague earned only 9% of the vote.

With Barto and Carter winning, the two most liberal candidates in their respective races, LD 7 has pretty much gone moderate…as if it already wasn’t. The one ray of hope was David Smith’s win. Let’s hope David can keep Nancy and Heather from malfing things up too bad.

LD 8
While LD 8’s voters had no choices in the Senate race, they were stuck with the liberal Michele Reagan who raises money for Democrats, they made some pretty conservative choices in the House races. Incumbent conservative John Kavanagh garnered about 40% while conservative Michelle Ugenti came in second with 21% of the vote. While I’m sure the soon-to-be Sen. Reagan will be voting at cross-purposes with Rep. Kavanagh and Ugenti, at least conservatives got one of the most conservative results it could have gotten in this district.

LD 9
Incumbent Rep. Debbie Lesko won re-election with 45% of the vote. Rick Gray came in second, and won nomination with 28% of the vote. If I’m not mistaken, Diane Douglas, who came in 3rd with 25% of the vote was heavily involved in PAChyderm Coalition and had their endorsement. I was leery of Rick Gray when he refused to come on Grassroots Interviews but he states in the 2010 Cap Times Primary Guide that he believes in the Austrian School of economics which should mark him as a free marketer. Considering Lesko not only endorsed McCain (before Hayworth got in the race) AND she voted FOR the tax increase, she should have been held accountable. Lesko failed to garner an Arpaio endorsement, but Douglas and Gray did. I can’t call this as a win for the conservatives since Diane lost.

LD 10
Jim Weiers was the biggest vote getter in the House with about 34% of the vote and Kimberly Yee got the second nomination with 32% of the vote. There’s no doubt that tremendous name ID helped Jim Weiers win. Weiers and Yee had PAChyderm Coalition endorsements. I can’t say I’m sad to see that “Sanctuary Six” Doug Quelland lost. Quelland has also had troubles with the Clean Elections Commission and he has been removed from office before. I can’t say that history helped him. Bill Adams supported Prop. 100 and wanted to sound like he’s pro-Life when he’s not. This was a win for conservatives because the best candidates won. Let’s just hope Yee and Weiers can undo any damage Linda Gray might do in the Senate. Linda Gray is now notoriously pro tax after SPONSORING Prop. 10 and opposing Prop. 13.

LD 11
LD 11 was just as big a disaster as LD 7. In the Senate race, liberal incumbent Rep. Adam Driggs successfully switched houses with about 49% of the vote. Name ID and money meant a lot in this race. Driggs was one of the liberals who helped fundraise for Democrats in the Twelve in `10 fundraiser put on by Greater Phoenix Leadership, a group that supports big government meddling in the economy and more government in education. PAChyderm endorsed Senate candidate Rich Davis came in second and therefore did not earn a nomination, with 40% of the vote.

Conservatives also didn’t get the optimal results in LD 11’s House races. Eric West and Dusti Morris were the PAChyderm Coalition endorsed candidates. However, Dusti dropped out of the race early. Shawnna Bolick would have also been a superlative candidate. While Eric West earned one of the two nominations with 22% of the vote, Kate Brophy McGee, a supporter of big government and tax increases earned 31% of the vote. Shawnna Bolick came in third with 19%, Bev Kraft, the wife of former legislator James Kraft who lied about being related to the Kraft Foods family came in fourth with 17%.

Again, these were not optimal results for conservatives. The dream results would have been Davis in the Senate and Eric West and Shawnna Bolick in the House. As in LD 7, conservatives got 1 out of 3.

LD 12
LD 12’s Senate race couldn’t have been a bigger disaster unless Democrat in Disguise Eve Nunez had won. Rather, the LD 12 voters chose absentee incumbent liberal John Nelson with 56% of the vote. Not only has Nelson consistently earned D’s and F’s from the Goldwater Institute for voting to regulate the economy, but some Democrats score as more free market than Nelson. He voted to increase your taxes and like the Sanctuary Six in the House, he wasn’t present to vote on HB 2280 in the Senate. He also helped raise money for liberal Republicans and Democrats at the Twelve in `10 fundraiser. If you want more information on what a liberal Nelson is, just take a look at the comparison piece on Clark Silver’s website in the lower right corner. There’s nothing Republican about Nelson. The ONLY conservative in the Senate race, Clark Silver, earned 25% of the vote. LD 12’s voters made a huge mistake.

LD 19
LD 19’s Senate race was a disaster for conservatives too. Conservatives had a decent candidate in James Molina, but he dropped out of the race towards the end. That meant the absentee liberal incumbent House member making a switch to the Senate got a free pass. Crandall is the ONLY Republican who missed more votes than John Nelson in 2009. He’s also another demonstrable liberal that campaigns as a conservative. Meanwhile, he was raising money for liberal Republicans and Democrats at the Twelve in `10 fundraiser.

Justin Olson was the only candidate endorsed by PAChyderm Coalition in the LD 19 House race. Luckily he got 36% of the vote. Speaker Adams got about 36% of the vote too. In going over the scores from Goldwater and other conservative rating organizations, I haven’t noticed Speaker Adams at the top of many lists. As Speaker, he also allowed the tax increase on the House floor. I think that was a huge failing. Be that as it may, the other “Republican” candidate in the race, Perkinson, earned 29% of the vote. He wasn’t strong enough on the tax increase and cited Crandall as one of his political influences. Thankfully, he didn’t win a nomination.

I’m not sure I can call this a win for conservatives since Molina dropped out of the Senate race. Granted, conservatives scored a single victory with Olson’s win and avoiding a Crandall clone in the House, but I’ve called other districts disasters when only one conservative won.

LD 20
Since Sen. Huppenthal ran for Superintendent of Public Instruction and Rep. McComish ran unopposed for Huppenthal’s Senate seat, that left two open House seats. The voters chose Jeff Dial with 48% of the vote and former legislator Bob Robson with 38% of the vote. It’s surprising that Dial beat a former legislator by 10%, especially when Dial, McComish and Robson ran as a team. One might expect their vote totals to be a little closer. I wasn’t blown away by Robson’s answers in the Cap Times 2010 Primary Guide on Prop. 100, his “other concerns” or his fiscal philosophy. Rather than giving a direct answer, he said the tax increase was a moot point. I couldn’t disagree more. Taxation has always been a key issue for Republicans and, as an office seeker, he OWES his potential constituents a direct answer. He also said he wanted to “maintain” education infrastructure. To me, it sounds like Mr. Robson wants to protect the education status quo. The status quo isn’t working and we need change, namely slapping down administrators’ wasteful spending, ignoring what the teachers’ union wants and focusing on spending on and the needs of the kids. Mr. Robson says he’s a fiscal conservative, but also a realist. To me, this is a red flag. It says, “I’m a fiscal conservative, except when I’m not.” Robson also got the endorsement of some police and fire groups and they don’t have a reputation for loving de minimis government. Looking at Robson’s past scores from Goldwater, they’re lackluster. This guy scored to the left of Sen. John Nelson some years. Perhaps there’s a reason why he got 10% fewer votes than Dial. Jeff Dial skipped ALL the issues questions in the Cap Times book, but submitted his 250 word piece to the CCEC. Not sure why that is. I’m guessing Jeff wanted voters to get information on him from his own website instead of the guides. The other candidate in the race, Christopher Tolino didn’t seem much different than Robson. Tolino, who got about 14% of the vote said he wanted to “provide incentives to make Arizona a business friendly environment.” Again, this sounds like headhunting, or picking winners and losers in the economy rather than letting the economy grow wild as the free market’s whims may grow it. At least Tolino gave a direct answer on Prop. 100.

A win for conservatives? I’d argue that that’s not the case with Robson as our nominee. In any case, LD 20 has a Democrat Rep in office, Rae Waters, and she’s seeking re-election. I’d rather see her gone than in office, but replacing her with a moderate like Robson makes me queasy.

LD 21
LD 21’s House nominations were good for conservatives. PAChyderm Coalition endorsees Tom Forese and J.D. Mesnard took 35% and 34% of the vote respectively while Democrat in Disguise (DID) Vanessa Whitener earned only 30%.

LD 22 House
LD 22 is an iconic conservative stronghold, so, the fact that DID Steve Urie earned a nomination with 20% of the vote is a severe disappointment. It’s also somewhat of a surprise that Urie was able to pick off incumbent Laurin Hendrx, but Hendrix has been criticized for skipping District meetings and failing to be available to his constituents. Hopefully, Mr. Hendrix’ lesson will be learned by ALL state legislators. Conservative leviathan Eddie Farnsworth earned the other nomination with 34% of the vote, the largest share. Another disappointment in the LD 22 House primaries is that conservatives Kelly Townsend and Bret Petillo earned so few votes. They earned 11% and 7% respectively. Mr. Howell, the other DID running for a nomination, earned only 8%. In such a conservative district, Howell and Urie should have come in last, not Petillo. Not living in the district, my only guess as to how Mr. Urie won a nomination is that he was very good at telling his people to one-shot him while conservatives spread their votes across the other candidates.

LD 23
LD 23’s Senate race was a total win for conservatives. Steve Smith won by almost a 3-1 margin over Matt Byers. Steve had Joe Arpaio’s endorsement and is a straightforward, no non-sense kind of guy. When Steve came on Grassroots Interviews, I was thoroughly impressed with him. I just hope that in this District that has about a 4% Democrat registration advantage that Steve Smith can pick off Rebecca Rios. HOWEVER, only 11K voters voted for Rios whereas almost 16K voted for the Republican candidates. I believe that if Steve campaigns to the Independents and PNDs that are trending Republican these days, he MIGHT be able to defeat her. She has tremendous name ID. I wish him the best of luck since we need people like Steve in the legislature.

LD 26
In LD 26, conservatives got just about the best results they could have hoped for. The voters re-nominated Vic Williams with 41% of the vote and gave conservative Terri Proud 32% of the vote while defeating Democrat in Disguise Wade McLean with only 27% of the vote. Williams is no conservative, but with McLean being described by some as a DID, I’m happy to take Williams over McLean. Now, LD 26 is split in the House with 1 Democrat holding a seat and she’s seeking re-election. I hope the Republicans, independents, PNDs and Libertarians turn out in force and elect Proud and Williams and send the Democrat Nancy Young Wright home.

LD 30
Sen. Frank Antenori’s defeat of the demonstrably liberal Marian McClure by a 2-1 margin is the best conservatives could have hoped for in LD 30’s Senate race considering the candidates in the race.

In the House races, LD 30’s voters nominated incumbents David Gowan and Ted Vogt with 34% and 28% of the vote respectively. Luckily, they were wise enough to send DID Doug Sposito to defeat with 12% of the vote and a third place finish. Gowan and Vogt got B’s overall from Goldwater, so there’s room for them to move to the right. There may have been more conservative candidates in this race. Kurt Knurr, who got 10% of the vote and came in 4th styled himself as a radical conservative. Parralee Schneider got 9% of the vote. She says she’s a grassroots conservative, but then says she favors “business friendly legislation.” If she means cutting taxes and regulation across the board to allow the free market direct economic growth, that’s fine, but if she means tailoring the economy, I’m glad she lost. Brian Abbot, who came in dead last with 7% of the vote was another tax and spend liberal who supported Prop. 100.