Unfortunately, I as an educated person, I believe you are right.

If McCain returns to the Senate, it will be an Obama AMNESTY vote (AKA comprehensive immigration reform).

And it’s really as simple as that.

You are also right about “new” candidates. It’s considered “good” if they end up in double digits (over 10%) approval ratings in the polls. And, that gives a good indication of the “potential” they have.
But they do not win the actual election.

So, Mr. Deakin does need to consider that (heavily) and decide what he wants to do. Split the vote between McCain & JD? Endorse JD “only because” he doesn’t want an amnesty vote to go through in the “bigger picture” or stand on his right to run.

I know what I would do. I would do everything in my power to make sure amnesty didn’t get through nationally. And I’d come back another day to challenge again.

But that’s me. And I’m an immigrant and can never be president anyway…….. or maybe I can……..?

Unfortunately this is real life and we DO have to think about the big picture.

I have a political science degree, 44 campaigns I’ve worked on, and experience working with hundreds of campaigns on immigration issues across America for the last six years.

I can find no historic evidence, and I challenge anyone to provide it, where a candidate like Deakin has won their race when polling at 7% or less five weeks before E-Day.

Therefore, I feel very confident at putting Deakin’s chances of winning this race at less than 1% if not ZERO.

McCain is polling about where US Senators Arlen Specter and Bob Bennet were polling just before their surprise upsets. The problem is that in those races there was no vote splitting candidate like Jim Deakin.

We are looking at a very real posibility of election returns on election night reading McCain 48%, Hayworth 47%, Deakin 5%.

If this happens, then Jim Deakin will be the man that delivers President Obama the final Amnesty vote he needs to overcome Cloture votes in the US Senate.

It is unknown if they will move forward on Comprehensive Immigration Reform Amnesty right away or wait till after the elections.

If Hayworth defeats McCain, the entire Globalist plan to import all these illegals and turn them into voters to destroy the once sovereign United States will be in tatters and the traitors will be in full retreat and the number of election victories for challengers in November will skyrocket.

If McCain wins reelection it will be like a bucket of cold water hitting the nation of patriots that are rising up for real change out there.

Arizona, you must get this right and you must do whatever is necessary to defeat John McCain.

If McCain and Obama turn millions of illegals into voters, the violence in your streets, the kidnappings, the drugs, the gang rapes, the assault weapons battles, will all escalate to a new horrific level and any chance of turning things around through politics will be gone forever.

Deakin must hdo the honorable thing and step aside or prove himself as a willing McCain ally by staying in.

Only someone that wanted to hurt JD or help McCain would stay in Deakin’s position.

So please join us as we ask Mr. Deakin to do what is best for our nation.

Your comments to him are welcome at this link…
http://www.alipac.us/ftopict-205890.html

At this time we are giving Jim Deakin the benefit of the doubt and giving him the opportunity to help us defeat McCain.

Here RAP – Greater Phoenix Tea Party Patriots: Mesa Tea Party Patriots discussion currently page #9 – late February. http://phoenixteaparty.ning.com/group/mesateapartypatriots

JPD said – Hayworth is a “Pompous Progressive Porker” – any questions as it is all coming true. He has a mouth that keeps giving: he voted for the Cap & Tax “Pilot” – his words: and not only did he spend our money when he couldn’t do that anymore he tried to give it away.

Comment by JPD on February 26, 2010 at 1:56pm
Pathetic; patently dishonest; ignorant name-caller; ill-informed; dishonest; liar; liberal troll and immature: RAP you started calling me names way before I called you anything. Do you want me to research who stated calling who names first for you?

Pompous Progressive Porker is not a name it’s a title Hayworth justly earned, I explained it several times – here is the short version: Pompous – mouthy; Progressive – voting record; Porker – voting record.

You said I ignored the slanted Pajamas piece. The PJ piece references data based on a matrix that is inherently faulted!

First – the piece is an opinion; second – that opinion uses data that is inherently prejudice and then misrepresents it; third – you act as if it the piece and data are ‘GOSPEL’; fourth Hayworth being an EAGLE SCOUT does not establish his integrity as you stated; fifth – I’ll find my post that trashes this and deliver it to you as it seems you are having a hard time finding stuff.

The Pajamas piece reminds me of the ACLU mailers I get as a member for the past 14 years.

The PJ piece is patently dishonest. Kind of reminds me of the ‘VERY IMPORTANT PAPERS” Boy Scout skit!

McCain vs Hayworth – DEAKIN wins.

I’ve debated on whether to reply to you both on this board and made the decision to go ahead and voice my opinion. So—

DSW – You are correct, I am new to the political scene. I am one of many new PCs to the Republican Party. I do not like the direction our Country is headed and wanted to get involved. What I wasn’t ready for was the dysfunctional Republican Party Politics that I find myself in at this time.
After attending several LD meetings and hearing the bickering and fighting, I now realize the problem with our country is much deeper than I had ever imagined. There has been no training/education for the new PC other that what you can glean from the the internet.

I can relate to Jim Deakin as “new to politics”, and I,too, would like to get rid of all incumbents. I speak on these boards in support of the candidate I feel would do the best job of representing me and my beliefs. I am not obligated to follow your mandates for me as you listed in reply #8.

After reading many of your messages, I’m quite sure I don’t want to follow your path
being in AZ politics for more than 20 years.
Seems to me that part of the problem is the old guard in this Party. I do want to stick it out through the 2012 election to help get rid of the current administration.

Glenn Beck’s my hero – In addition to my comments above to DSW, I’m sure GB would not
condone the name calling that you spew so easily. #9 – I am a disciple to only One, and that is not Obama. I’m tired of the way government is ignoring the citizens so I, too, would like to replace all the incumbents especially McCain.

I do not need to get my information from MSM to form a personal opinion about JD. I didn’t care for him as a sportscaster, and I still don’t care for him. Sorry, that’s my opinion and I am entitled to that.

So surprise! I am a real and honest voter
and I am even more opposed to JD after meeting you fine people.

Is there some part of “in politics it is what you appear to be and not what you are that usually determines the outcome” that you didn’t get? It does not matter who ranked JD as what if people DO NOT CARE about it. Look at the unfavorable ratings, read the commentary in the polls, read the press, turn on the radio … JD’s problem is that McCain used Alinsky’s 5th and 13th tactics to ridicule, freeze, polarize and personalize JD and it worked. Magellan is very clear on that point.

If JD cannot repacking himself and rebrand his image with the voters he will not win. McCain spent millions to pin him to the wall and the 50% unfavorables show that he succeeded. If you want your guy to win then his campaign has to figure our how to undo that. Without the cash or enough feet-on-the-ground GOTV to offset McCain’s cash, JD has to use the two debates, as does Deakin, to sell himself to the voter. McCain is vulnerable. The polls show that. The voters want a option. McCain has made it hard for JD to sell himself. That is simply political reality. Let Shane or any others with a lot of time in the saddle show me where my analysis is wrong.

I do not want McRINO. I’ve gone head to head with him and his reputation as McNasty is well deserved. I want him out but he may win unless one of the challengers can change the opinion of the voters through the debates and swing the polls enough. It is up to JD and Jim to show the voters that viable option. They each have 2 shots. We’ll know by the start of early voting on July 29 what this may turn out to be.

nightcrawler,

You said, “Throwing Deakin under a bus just for showing up is turning a lot of people off.”

Much to JPD’s surprise, I wholeheartedly agree with you on this statement! If that were what is happening, that is.

The fact is, JPD (AND Deakin as well) has repeatedly mischaracterized votes, bills and actions of JD Hayworth’s record. They and many others have attempted to mislead people about his record, calling him names, as Stephen Kohut did earlier, couching it in the terms of “THE PUBLIC Believes…” What did Stephen say? “…a blowhard, a pork barrel spender and as a Johnny-come-lately to immigration.” Again, Stephen, please provide the evidence from any poll where any questions like that are asked!

I began responding to their outrageous charges on the various Tea Party pages, and as JPD is fond of reminding people, I would get kicked off by the moderators who were Deakin supporters. I even got booted by ICaucus’es David Lake for asking WHY I had to removed a video that was posted here showing Jim claiming to have 20% but NO ONE who were viciously attacking me (while I maintained my calm) were condemned for their posts! David then asked them privately to remove their attack posts so the the main directors would not see them.

So, my desire all along is to set the story straight. Ever since I read JPD’s earliest posts in late February/early March I have been responding. Do I always get it right? Of course not! But even the Deakin supporting Mike Keating unequivocally stated on my birthday, that I researched my subjects very well and I don’t lie.

So nightcrawler it’s not about “…throwing (Deakin) under the bus just for showing up”
It is about using the truth to combat the lies, half-truths and distortions.

You may have noticed, that neither Stephen nor JPD commented at all about the links I posted above in #30. How can ANYONE review these independent ratings analyses (there’s more) and accuse JD of being a “progressive porker”? Was he perfect in his 12 years? NO!! Neither would a Jim Deakin, but he condemns ALL politicians believing they should ALL be voted out. SO, Jim MUST think that HE would be PERFECT!?

Magellan clearly attributes in its commentary on the favorable/unfavorable poll results that JD’s poor performance is due to the effectiveness of McCain’s ads. As I said, read the commentary and details in polling. Don’t just look at numbers. In politics it is what you appear to be and not what you are that usually determines the outcome. McCain’s ads have targeted each of the items I listed such as ear marks/pork barrel spending in his Guam snakes and French fruit fly ads. McCain has painted JD with the brush he wanted to. Fair or not, real or not, it is what it is and the polls reflect that.If in doubt, refer to Alinsky’s 5th and 13th tactics.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2010/Magellan_Arizona_US_Senate_Republican_Primary_062410.pdf

You said that JD’s problem, “…is that the THE PUBLIC believes that he is as a blowhard, a pork barrel spender and as a Johnny-come-lately to immigration.” Would you please give ALL of US here, the references and polling on which this statement is based? If you can’t then we would conclude that it’s YOUR personal opinion, right?

JPD,

You promoted the lie that HR 6, Section 752 being about some kind of “Pilot Cap & Trade” program. First, You and Jim Deakin claimed that this bill put into place this program. THAT is patently false! As Trent Franks stated to me, this provision required the EPA to REPORT TO CONGRESS within 180 days; regarding the EXISTING program that the EPA had instituted beforehand. Please, I’d like to know your response to this JPD, did this provision intistute a “pilot cap & trade” or JUST require a sunshine provision? (will there be dead silence from either or both?)

Steven Robinson
Radical American Patriot

If JD loses, it’s McCain’s spite for the Teaparty that did it, not McCain’s embrace of it.

Robinson (RAP) where in the world did this enlisted rant come from – what is wrong with you – no “MORE” dead horses to beat in Bullhead? Who in their right minds would want to break bread with you and as far as controlling ones mouth – look in the mirror – even Pierce had to chuckle AT YOU after you jumped in his face, actually into his space with your hands waving where you recited a passage from a book you read 4 years ago.

RAP, you keep making reference to my posts being lies but offer nothing specific to counter them – I guess you’re right.

Your pal jpd

On this rare occasion we agree. It is all about personal responsibility. You win with dignity and you lose with dignity. It is the candidate and the staff that need to step up and educate people. I like JD and volunteered on his last campaign and if he beats McCain fair and square in August I may do so again. Throwing Deakin under a bus just for showing up is turning a lot of people off. A poorly calculated political diversionary tactic, in my opinion.

You statement “That statement is true ONLY about the ‘kool-aid’ drinkers who listen to everything those who believe everything Deakin, his wife, and any of the baloney posted by JPD, Michael Bailey and others post with NO BASIS in fact!” is incorrect. JD’s problem, as reflected in the polls by his high negatives, is that the THE PUBLIC believes that he is as a blowhard, a pork barrel spender and as a Johnny-come-lately to immigration. That is JD’s problem. This has nothing to do with the Deakin campaign in any way. The Deakin campaign has not been able to do the tyoe of media it would take to have given JD so strong a negative image to do that kind of damage in the poll. The one who has been pounding the MSM with those types of ads is McCain. If you find the polls troubling than I suggest you look at what the public’s view of JD was before he entered the race and the effectiveness of the media put out against JD by McCain since he entered. That is the source of JD’s problems. The voters do drink the koolaid. The challenge for candidates is to educate them otherwise. The polls show JD is not succeeding in that task. Don’t blame the Deakin campaign for the failures of JS’s campaign.