This was my mistake and apologize for it.
But make no mistake I am not seth scott.You can have SA pull up the ip addresses if you would like. DSW would have already pointed this out if it were true.

AZ-05: Mitchell Opponent Eric Wnuck Plagiarizes Mitchell’s Consultants

A GOP candidate who hopes to replace Rep. Harry Mitchell in Congress has come up with a not-so-smart way to campaign: plagiarize ads — verbatim — from your opponent’s own media consultants.

Arizona newcomer Eric Wnuck is running in the AZ-05 Republican primary, and earlier today released an I’m-an-everyman-themed Web ad. It features lots of folks saying, “I’m Eric Wnuck,” and attempts to leave viewers with the impression that he’ll a strong voice for all of us in Washington.

It’s a brilliant idea for an ad. But I liked it much better when I saw it three years ago, when it was aired by Rep. Melissa Bean, D-Ill.

Wnuck plagiarized his new spot, but not from a random party. Nope. This bright bulb lifted material directly from Mitchell’s own advisers.

Adelstein Liston, the firm that has produced all of Mitchell’s television spots, also produced the “I’m Melissa Bean” ad that Wnuck loved so much.

See Wnuck’s plagiarized Web ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCDl1J-Gp_Q

See Rep. Melissa Bean’s 2006 “I’m Melissa Bean” TV spot: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPGRH75UFFY

I’ll agree that Democrats are probably less energized this cycle, but did Captain Trips kill off the people who had Mitchell as a teacher or something? It’s still a factor.

Now I know Pederson was a joke, but lets pretend he was a good candidate, he still loses it by at least 45-50k. It is a GOP controlled county so lets get real when we talk about countywide races, those wins are not impressive.

As for 06 and 08 your argument is pretty weak when you think that the district breaks down as basically 40% GOP 33% indy and 27% dem.
So if mitchell gets ALL the dems that was only half his support in 08! He still got about 65% of indys and and 10% of the gop…

So blaming this on an energized base when you have a plus 13 voter reg edge is pretty much a joke.

I agree in part and disagree in part. Trends do matter but having good candidates also matters. In 2006, the tide ran badly against the Republicans, and the Foghorn Leghorn act had grown tiresome. Congressman Mitchell won. In 2008 the tide also ran badly against the Republicans and candidate David Schweikert did not run a good campaign in my opinion. Congressman Mitchell won.

In 2010, with unemployment over ten percent, what can Congressman Mitchell say he has done to foster job creation in the private sector? As I wrote before, zero, zip, zilch, and nada. You can easily see the political epitaph, Congressman Mitchell lost.

If David Schweikert was such a bad candidate, how do you explain the fact that he won two county-wide races?

Mitchell won in 2006 and 2008 because Democrats were energized and almost everyone of them had Harry Mitchell as their teacher.

Harry Mitchell is not a good congressman. He has been endorsed by every radically liberal fringe group and he continues to vote for their radical liberal agenda.

The voters won’t put up with it again. Maybe Harry needs to go back to teaching or posing for gaudy statues in downtown Tempe.

In a district that has a plus 13 GOP voter registration ID it shouldn’t matter what kinda year it is. JD lost because of untrue scandals and schweikert lost because he is a bad candidate.

Congressional races are much more personalized than president and statewide races. Trends are a major factor but in a district that is as red as CD-5 it shouldn’t matter.

The reason mitchell has won here has been bad candidates who either shoot themselves in the foot like JD or are bad candidates like david.

We need some new blood in this race.

What do you think 2010 is shaping up to be? Probably not a Democrat year.

More importantly, why should District 5 return Congressman Mitchell to Washington? The most important issue this year to Arizona and America — bar none — is jobs. Congressman Mitchell has done exactly nothing to foster job creation in the private sector. Zero, sip, zilch, nada. True, the Recovery Act (aka the stimulus bills) has fed money to keep public sector jobs. It has been a drop in the bucket for private sector jobs. When a member of Congress has no record of helping solve the most pressing problem confronting us, he deserves the hook off the stage and out the door.

the money given to him by the DCCC was basically what he outspend Schweikert by… and he won by 10 points. When I look at that, I think Harry still wins by 3 or 4 points without that cash.

So no he won’t get that much again but you have to think he gets at least half that so lets say he gets 650k. Schweikert was such a joke last time why would the NRCC be willing to give Schweikert a lot?

I just do not see where Schweikert flips more than every 1 in every 10 voters. Especially in a midterm election year.

Counting the Libertarian candidate 57% voting against Schweikert last time. Thats a lot of people who his message did not resonate with.

Independents may have swung in some sense but congressional races are very individualized. Looking at Virginia, NJ does not mean what is happening in CD-5…

2010 is a totally different game.
1st Target of voter anger = Democrats;
2nd Target of voter anger = incumbents.

The Independent voter has swung back dramatically to the right.