Tue 17 Nov 2009
I am enjoying watching the changes take place in LD-17. Democratic State Senator, Meg Burton-Cahill, will be holding a press conference today prior to the kickoff of the Special Session of the Legislature to announce that she will be retiring from the public dole. Waiting in the wings is her House seatmate, David Schapira, who will announce shortly that he will seek to replace her. Question to B-C: Why not just resign and have the LD-17 Democratic PC’s nominate three Dems to replace you? I’m sure the County Board of Supervisors will rubber stamp whoever you put up.
Speculation also abounds that GOP challenger, Wendy Rogers, is coming on fast and furious for the seat and will likely place the LD-17 Senate seat into the hands of GOP. The national trending certainly suggests that the GOP will make gains in 2010. Could Rogers’ campaign intimidated B-C to get out? Are the Dems thinking that Shapira may be their only hope to retain the seat?
At the same time this is happening, Tempe Councilman, Ben Arredondo, will also announce today (probably at the B-C press conference?) that he will be switching from a Republican to Democrat in order to run for Schapira’s LD-17 House seat. (Arredondo has a history of playing both sides of the fence.) Joining him will be Democrat, Ed Ableser, also from LD-17 who will likely team up in the LD-17 House race. This means that the Dems already have their slate in place for LD-17 in 2010: Schapira, Ableser and Arredondo.
With Rogers running for the Senate and Augustus Shaw running for the House, the Republicans need to find one more candidate to join Shaw in the House race and avoid splitting the vote in the General.
November 17th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Republicans need to single shot Augustus Shaw. No way we’ll win both House seats – not with Ben “Mr. Tempe” Arredondo running. Let’s pick up one much-needed seat!
November 17th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
“At the same time this is happening, Tempe Councilman, Ben Arredondo, will also announce today… that he will be switching from a Republican to Democrat in order to run for Shapira’s LD-17 House seat.”
WOT!?!?
That can’t be right. Everyone knows a massive wave of tea or something is about to wash all the Democrats out of the government and put all the conservatives in charge of the parts of government they don’t strangle with their bare hands.
I read it on the internets.
November 17th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
I believe that any candidate can win in District 17. The question is which candidate can offer voters a state government they want.
Any opposition had better know how to sell the benefit of voting for X better than Cahill/Ableser/Shapira. Democrats sell the benefits of government with the active support of the newspapers and most of the media to a voting base that likes what they have to offer.
I hope that come next November that there are at least 3 candidates selling less government. How many Republicans or Libertarians (or Green or Independent) are hep on that idea and are willing to run in district 17 is a question yet unanswered (well 2 if you count the Republicans).
November 17th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
Couple of points here –
1. Meg Burton Cahill is retiring for health reasons. Wendy Rogers *is* an energetic candidate, but she’s not intimidating. That’s not a shot at Ms. Rogers, but officeholders (from either party) don’t get intimidated by challengers, else they wouldn’t have become officeholders in the first place.
2. Ben Arredondo hasn’t so much played “both sides of the fence” as worked to serve the interests of his community. I have not always agreed with him in the past, and probably won’t agree with him all the time in the future, but I have never and will never be able to argue with his motivations.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Rogers seems like a legitimate candidate but I doubt she will win. Mr. Shaw will not win and I seriously doubt any other candidate the GOP puts up will either.
November 18th, 2009 at 12:41 am
DSW: need i remind everyone again that Augustus Shaw was a Democrat… HIS WHOLE LIFE. He switched because Mayor Hallman said he needed to in order to win in Tempe. He says all the right things on conservatives issues, but you’ll understand why I just don’t trust him and that he’ll vote like a good Republican on the council. He seems fake and I just don’t see why we don’t find a REAL Republican to run instead of a RINO.
November 18th, 2009 at 4:33 am
Sucks for the GOP that Burton-Cahill isn’t running. As arrogant (and dopey) as Schapira can be at times, he can’t hold a candle to Meg. She makes some of the most vapid remarks in committee and on the floor I have ever heard. A few YouTube montages of “Meg’s Funniest Dome Videos” would probably go viral in the tech-savvy LD17 and she would be in deep trouble. This would be even more true against an articulate candidate like Rogers.
Like I said, too bad for the GOP. Rogers may still be able to beat Schapira if the “female advantage” is big enough, but it won’t be nearly as easy. Schapira can seem impressive at times, especially to those who don’t look too deep, which probably describes most LD17 voters.
Shaw seems like a good candidate, but he only has a decent chance as a single-shot. If the GOP has two candidates, it would be a true long shot for either to win.
November 18th, 2009 at 8:22 am
If Shaw was a Democrat and became a Republican, great! Don’t we want more people to join our party? How do you grow a party without registering new voters and getting others to switch. Think.
November 18th, 2009 at 11:38 am
Augustus Shaw is the 1st Vice Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party. He was a delegate to the 2008 Republican National Convention. How much more of a Republican do you want. The guy is an elected PC, works hard for the Party and is taking on a heck of a challenge in LD17. He can win, if we, as Republicans, back him. Isn’t this what being a Republican is all about?
November 18th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
Amen, James!
November 19th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
Schapira has to be STOPPED! He is so anti-freedom it isn’t funny. This guy has sponsored every big brother and nanny state related thing that he can think of. He sponsored a bill that would have made it a crime to smoke in a car if a minor was present. Now I am not a fan of smoking but that is an absurd intrusion of the state into people’s lives. He must be defeated at ALL COSTS!
November 20th, 2009 at 10:38 am
Wendy is a well spoken, former military, small business owner. She’s an excellent candidate and could use support. Her website is http://www.WendyRogers.org