Sat 7 Nov 2009
Harry Mitchell Watch is reporting that Arizona’s 5th Congressional District congressman has decided to vote in favor of the Pelosi-Obama healthcare bill.
This seals Harry Mitchell’s fate in the upcoming 2010 congressional race. Already, there are three Republicans who have announced for the seat. Unlike 2006 and 2008, 2010 will be a banner year for conservative Republicans.
I’ll predict that the third time will be a charm for David Schweikert!
November 7th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
“This seals Harry Mitchell’s fate in the upcoming 2010 congressional race.”
If you mean by cruising to re-election, you bet (at least according to the Congressman’s Facebook right now).
November 7th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
LOL, You “Progressives” are so blind, you can’t see it coming.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
“LOL, You “Progressives” are so blind, you can’t see it coming.”
As long as you all set up Scozzofava-type purges around the country, we won’t have to.
Make any predictions on the governor’s race lately, DSW?
November 7th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
DSW,
Schweikert ran such a joke of a campaign and it was a presidential election year so you had high turnout. I just do not see voters who elected Mitchell by 10 points in the same match up saying ehh I dont want to vote for him anymore.
The same way you predictied Schweikert would win last time and Bee would beat Giffords and that Brewer would not run, you will get this one wrong also.
November 7th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Schweikert is actually a pretty strong candidate, and assuming the the Republican infighting is kept to a minimum he has a pretty good chance of knocking Mitchell off in the general. The problem with Mitchell is that he’s a fundamentally smart guy who doesn’t have enough backbone to stand up to the whack-jobs in the far left wind of the Democratic party. He’s kind of floundering around now, trying to please everyone, and as a result is inspiring no one. Schweikert is clearly a man who is, quite frankly, pretty pissed off at what is happening to this country and may be perfectly positioned to harness the outrage that is growing on the part of the electorate. Plus, he’s got some pretty clear ideas for postive change – he’s not just someone who tears down his opponents but doesn’t have a plan of his own.
-Steve
November 7th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Steve,
That strong candidate lost by 10 points in a district that went to McCain easily! The guy ran a joke of campaign last time, he had no ground operation, was not a strong speaker and had a hard time challenging Mitchell in any way, in district that is plus 11 in republican registered voters.
Honestly, how can you say that is a strong candidate.
November 7th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
Schweikert is a proven loser. We need a stronger candidate.
November 7th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
2006 and 2008 were HORRIBLE years for the Republican party at the federal level. CD-5 is a Republican district but has a huge number of Independents. The last two election cycles, these IND’s voted left of center because they were angry with the GOP. NEWSFLASH! In case you haven’t noticed yet, there are a whole lot of very angry IND’s who have swung way back right of center. Maybe you need to pull your nose out of the Daily Kos and Huffpo and get out and meet some of these people to realize this district is going GOP again. If Mitchell votes for this bill, he will have signed his “political death warrant.”
I once ran for office against a very liberal Democrat named Andy Nichols (RIP) who ran three times before he finally won office.
If Schweikert doesn’t win CD-5 this time, I will be the first one to tell him “it’s time to move on.” He is a proven candidate having won several other races. In 2008, the DCCC dropped over a MILLION Dollars into CD-5 to buoy up Harry Mitchell. The DCCC is currently having a terrible time raising money which is an indicator that the Dems are in the political doghouse. The DCCC ain’t gonna be involved in AZ CD-5 next year. They don’t have the money and they’re gonna leave Harry out to dry because they have other Dems who are running in traditionally safe Dem districts who are in a lot of trouble. They’re gonna write off Harry Mitchell and the next Congressman will have the vote of thousands of angry Independents. Harry is done, kaput, fini, terminado!
The other candidates are political nobodies (sorry guys but that’s the political reality).
I’m putting my money on David Schweikert.
November 7th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
DSW,
The problem is we have heard all this before with schweikert. He will be better this time and blah blah. And the fact remains at the federal level mccain won CD-5 so in this district it was not all bad for the GOP.
And I have a hard time with you accsing people of not listening to the people when you were wrong about CD-5 in 06 and 08 and wrong about CD-8 in 08. Maybe its you who needs to get you head
November 7th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
Aah I hit the wrong button but to finish my thought maybe you should get your head out of the ground and look around at the districts some more.
November 7th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
If it was a good year for Republicans in CD-5 then why didn’t the voters elect an entire slate of Republicans from the legislative districts in CD-5? The flaw with your logic is McCain. He doesn’t fit the mold of a conservative Republican. Independents in CD-5 control the vote. They voted left of center in 2006 and 2008. They will vote right of center in 2010.
November 7th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
DSW,
The problem with your logic is you always seem to be wrong… Brewer wasn’t going to run, mitchell was going to lose twice and gabby in 08… I don’t know why anyone would trust your “logic.”
So talk to me in 2010… Until then schweikert remains a bad candidate who had ZERO ground game in 08 and was rumored to have been endorsed by the AFL-CIO.. Nothing special to me..
November 7th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
“Independents in CD-5 control the vote. They voted left of center in 2006 and 2008. They will vote right of center in 2010.”
Just like they did in NY-23 and CA-10 on Tuesday.
Fun fact about NY-23: Bill Owens is voting for HCR. All that sturm und drang gained you what exactly.
November 7th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
And yet you completely ignore that there was a RINO candidate in NY-23 who behaved like a 3rd party candidate spoiler and even backed the Dem. NY-23 will go GOP in 2010.
November 7th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
I doubt that Harry Mitchell is just falling in for the government solution. Mitchell as well as Giffords and Kirkpatrick all portray themselves as reluctant but proud yes votes. Pastor and Grijalva having been in the bag from the get go.
I don’t see any Republican opposition taking this vote to the bank however as the fraction of the media and the American electorate able to identify a bad idea like socialized medicine is definitely in the minority.
November 7th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
Actually no, I’m taking it into account. When the voters of NY-23 had a choice between a Blue Dog Democrat, a left-leaning Republican, and a Conservative from the Bachmann-Limbaugh wing of the GOP…
They rejected the conservative candidate. 54% (Owens/Scozzofava) to 45% (Hoffman).
You’re absolutely right, NY-23 might go back to the GOP. It shouldn’t have moved away this year… and it wouldn’t have had the GOP been able to accept some moderates in the party. But you’re believing your own press. A vast majority of the Tea Party movement believes 2 million people showed up on 9/12, that 4,000 people just came to Capitol spontaneously, and that it’s only the tip of a conservative spear.
I urge you to both run with that, and urge your GOP politicans to govern like that (which I know you will on both).
And that will wind up blunting the effects of what will undoubtedly be a difficult year for Democrats in 2010.
November 7th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
Hey, we even got a Republican to vote for it… A Republican from Louisiana, Joseph Cao. Well, I guess we know who’s next to be Scozzofava’d.
November 7th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
We have 3 good candidates in CD5, if they will stick to the issues and hold back on the mud, we might have a chance to use the short primary to take out the incumbent. Give the voters a reason to go GOP and not a reason to stick to the same old thing like last time. Bittersmith needs to stay out!
November 7th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
I am sick to my stomach! Rep Mitchell says on his FB page something like, doing nothing is not the answer. Voting No would not be doing nothing on this bill. I am at least joyful that the abortion amendment passed. I am looking forward to helping a good republican candidate soon on his/her campaign who will be running against this “Representative”. FYI, I got the same form letter from him that I read a few weeks back in the editorial section of the paper. Isn’t that wonderful–? My letter, the one Mitchell wrote to me, was also in the paper!? Give me a break!!!
November 8th, 2009 at 6:59 am
Ann,
Who are these three good candidates. I hope you don’t count schweikert who was endorsed by a labor union one of the countless times thid guy has run for office and run a bad campaign… Some great sonservative he is…
November 8th, 2009 at 8:22 am
The trouble with Harry?
10.2% unempoyment. His stimulus bill helps save government jobs. It has done nothing, and I mean nothing, for private sector jobs. Unemployment is up 42% since January 20.
As Steve Wynn said, Congress and the President should have focused on jobs, jobs, and jobs. They have done everything but. Mitchell voted for a huge job killer.
He will pay for it, as unemployment continues to rise and the contrast is drawn for what he did for government jobs and what he has not done for private sector jobs.
November 8th, 2009 at 10:13 am
Johnny,
If I had my druthers,…. Dean Martin for Governor and Schweikert for State Treasurer.
November 8th, 2009 at 10:27 am
Ann,
Thanks for listing who you want for statewide office but i asked who are these good candidates in CD-5 not who you wanted for Governor.
November 8th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Unemployment rate in Arizona in January 2007, when Mitchell takes ofFice: 3.9%.
Unemployment drops to 3.7% in Arizona in August 2007.
Unemployment rate in Arizona in September 2009: 9.1%, an increase of 245% in two years, while Mitchell is serving in Congress.
Did Mitchell cause unemployment? No.
Has he done anything to stop it or bring it down? No.
Has he done anything for jobs in Arizona? No.
Is there any bigger problem facing Arizona families today? No.
Should Mitchell return to Congress if he cannot do anything for Arizona? You answer.
November 9th, 2009 at 6:55 am
I wrote Mitchell and promised him he would loose my vote if he voted for a public option. Obviously, he has lost my vote. Good luck Mr. Mitchell.
November 9th, 2009 at 8:19 am
Joe,
Question: Did he have it before?
November 9th, 2009 at 11:07 am
Yes, I voted for him. And in April I wrote a real letter (stamp and everything) promising him he would loose my vote if he failed to appose a public option.
I just don’t get it. If the problem is the 27 Million without insurance, why not just give them medicaid? That could be done for a few billion. Why spend $1.2Trillion?
And anyone believes they will stop spending when they get to $1.2Trillion is out of their mind. No government project has ever costs what they said it would. We are being duped by idiot. Every last one of them. And the Republicans are no better. They were spending money like crazy, which is why I Voted for Mitchell in the first place.
Mark my words Mr Mitchell. You vote on this bill ended your career. One year from now, you will be replaced. It cannot happen soon enough.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:48 am
“Yes, I voted for him. And in April I wrote a real letter (stamp and everything) promising him he would loose my vote if he failed to appose a public option.
I just don’t get it. If the problem is the 27 Million without insurance, why not just give them medicaid? That could be done for a few billion. Why spend $1.2Trillion?”
Wow, this is stunning. You oppose a public option… and yet you ask why we can’t get the 27 million without insurance onto Medicaid, which, last I checked anyway, is funded by the American taxpayer.
You’re basically against calling a public option a “public option”.
I agree with you on though, Medicare/Medicaid should be available to anyone who doesn’t have/can’t get private insurance. Keith Olbermann coined it “Medicare part E (the E stands for everyone)”.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:36 am
There’s also a libertarian running for the seat–Nick Coons. We’ve seen what happens when Republicans take control–they’re nearly as reckless as the Dems when it comes to spending, and they care only an ounce more for freedom than Dems do. Mitchell is bad and deserves to lose, yes, but don’t replace him with another Republican (i.e.-Democrat Lite). Vote for Freedom! Vote Libertarian!
November 11th, 2009 at 4:11 am
At heart I am a libertarian. But I meet libertarians, and they are all whack lobs. I just can’t take them seriously.
No, I am not in favor of Medicaid either. My example was intended to illustrate that congress has a hidden agenda. If this was really about insuring the uninsured, then they could do it will little effort. There is little doubt that this is a power grab.
I believe the real solution involves tort reform. But we will never get tort reform because lawmakers will never pass legislation that puts lawyers out of work. Shakespeare was right — kill ‘em all.