Mon 3 Nov 2008
We are now less than 24 hours away from the polls opening and it’s time to make predictions.
Will the world end or will the heavens open up with the sound of angelic hosts proclaiming the Messiah?
Will Janet Napolitano start packing her bags and Jan Brewer start packing her office supplies or will John Shadegg start ramping up for his US Senate bid?
Will the US Congress make a dramatic turn to the extreme left and elect 60 Democrats?
Will Nancy Pelosi declare a new era of the most bipartisan congress in history or will Condy Sheehan take Nancy’s seat away?
What about here in Arizona? Will Harry Mitchell finally retire his old worn out liberal policies and CD-5 voters give David Schweikert the golden ticket? Will Southern Arizona re-elect is same old keep the working poor in their place congressional delegation or replace Giffords with a worker Bee?
Will the State Legislature go Democrat or will the GOP hold on for dear life?
Will Scottsdale finally elect a real mayor in Jim Lane and show all the RINO’s the door?
This is where you get to make the predictions and feel free to go out on a limb. Just remember, the limb you perch on may get sawed by other readers!
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:46 am
TV stations and radio stations will report record profits for the past 6 months.
The rest of us will rejoice over the return of ads for Ford pick up trucks and reruns of Jerry Seinfeld.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 am
I am really missing those ads for Sonic as well…
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:12 am
–NObama is no messiah, but he WILL win the election…THANKS moderates!
–The pink gorilla could easily be tapped for a NObama Administration post.
–Ugh…the thought of Jan Brewer as Gov…have we Rs gone nuts?
–Since NObama is gonna win, we get more years of McLame in office as Senator. He’ll continue to contribute to the disintegration of the Republican party until he’s older than Strom Thurmond was.
–Will the Dims get 60 seats in the Senate? No, but it won’t matter. They’ll be able to peel off liberal Republicans to override filibusters. Has the country taken a disasterous left turn? Absolutely. We won’t recover from this one. We’ll slouch into a European-style socialistic hell that the Republicans will never be able to undo.
–Cindy Sheehan will lose BIG to Nacy Pelosi. Pelosi will lie through her teeth about bipartisanship to the public, and they’ll be dumb enough to believe it. Her definition of bipartisanship is Republicans licking Dims jackboots.
–It’s not a Republican year. Rank-and-file Republicans are still out for R blood because the Rs learned nothing from `06 and have STILL acted like RINOs. That translates into a loss for Schweik. Sorry, Shane. It’s just my humble opinion. I don’t WANT that to be the outcome, it’s just my view of reality.
–Bee is toast. What an uninspiring candidate. Voters will vote for Giffords because they’re vapid and she might be considered pretty by some.
–No clue on AZ House and Senate races. With the reporting that many conservatives won in state primaries, it may well be possible for those candidate to swim against the red tide (a huge Dim voter turnout where RED indicates their economic predilictions, NOT the backwards state color coding of red vs. blue) and win election. Just like when hard core R voters voted a straight R ticket…except for the pink gorilla instead of Salmon, these conservatives may get Rs voting NObama for el presidente and for them at the state level.
–Snottsdale? Those idiots will vote for the RINOs.
Saw away, but I bet I’ll be correct after McLame sends our party to a flaming defeat. See you on the other side of election day to either gloat or admit how horribly wrong I was.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:16 am
The vote totals in Arizona won’t be totally known until Thursday, with some close races left undecided due to the policy of not immediately counting “early” ballots hand-carried to the polls on Election Day.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:41 am
- At the national level, Obama and his fellow Democrats will cast SA and its devotees into the wildnerness.
- You will warm your hands around the bonfires set by Fox News and Rush the pill head/serial polygamist until 2010, when the tides will likely turn back your way (CW states that the party always loses Congressional seats two years after they win the White House). So hold on, conservatives.
- Giffords and Mitchell will return to DC to help Ann Kirkpatrick set up her office. I dunno about Shaddeg/Lord, but to be honest I suspect Lord will come up short.
- I generally agree with Richard Grayson that we won’t know the makeup of the Legislature for quite some time. I’m expecting things to be up in the air until AT LEAST next week, with several close elections, and ballot chaos down in Pima County adding to the general confusion.
- In the final analysis the Legislature will probably end up closely split, with neither party holding a commanding majority. Who occupises the 2nd floor of the House, and who is relegated to the third floor, is too difficult to predict at this juncture.
- I don’t know (and honestly don’t especially care)about Scottsdale, but I’ll be surprised if a single ballot proposition passes, though (alas) there may be enough homophobes to allow 102 to squeeze by. I certainly hope not….
In conclusion, Arizona is a Red State turning purple. Both parties will have to court the growing hoardes of we independents to win elections.
And by the way, Napolitano will stay here in Arizona. So unpack your boxes, madam Secretary of State.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:44 am
1. Greg Patterson wins. Sets himself up for a run against Harry Mitchell in 2010.
2. David Schweikert goes back to doing whatever it is he does.
3. Obama 338-200 51.7%, McCain 47.8%.
4. McCain announces this was his last campaign Tuesday night. Sets up Shadegg/Napolitano ’10.
5. Arpaio wins. A Democratic controlled Justice Dept. finally launches a civil rights investigation and Arpaio is indicted in ’10. Hayworth springs to his defense and uses it to lauch his candidacy for governor.
6. Joe Lieberman is kicked out of the Democratic caucus.
7. Prop 102 passes in AZ, Prop. 8 fails in California. Like the MLK holiday, Arizona is behind the times AGAIN.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Klute:
Shadegg/Napolitano?
Or Flake/Napolitano?
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Unless Shadegg gets a big leadership position in the House during the upcoming GOP purge, I think he goes for McCain’s seat.
Flake… I always forget about him. Yeah, he could make a run for it. Especially if Shadegg is Majority whip or some such.
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Wouldn’t he have to be in the Majority for that to occur? And isn’t that a decidedly unlikely situation?
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Riots, starting in Chicago.
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Ach, meant “minority” whip.
November 3rd, 2008 at 3:18 pm
I’m with ya Klute.
I think Flake might have an even shot at it, too.
November 3rd, 2008 at 5:33 pm
My Predictions:
The popular vote will be much closer than expected, maybe 49% vs 49%, slightly for Obama. The electoral vote will not be close, my prediction, Obama 338 to McCain 200.
Shadegg will be re-elected because the voters know him and he deserves it and Lord never gave them a reason to vote for Lord.
Of course Prop. 102 will easily pass. Prop. 202 will be defeated despite all the money being spend on TV ads advocating it.
Oh and McCain will carry Arizona.
BOB HARAN
November 3rd, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Hoping 102 goes down in flames..
Hoping 201 joins it..
Praying for wins on 202
Bee
Shadegg
Hay
Go McCain- We are praying for you
Praying Brenner gets his due..
November 3rd, 2008 at 7:25 pm
I think Hay, Bee and McCain will disappoint you, but I can certainly appreciate your moderation and agree with you on 102 and 201 and then tack on 105 for good measure.
November 3rd, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Giffords wins by 6%
Kirkpatrick wins by 8%
Mitchell wins by 3%
McCain wins the state but by only 2%
Shaddegg beats Lord 2% (incumbency helps)
Obama wins by 4% nationally and over 330 in the electoral college.
Dems pick up 30+ seat in the house nationally.
Dems pick up 8 seats in the Senate…not enough to kick Lieberman to the curb.
Arizona House goes Democrat.
Arizona Senate stays GOP but inches toward Democrat control.
November 3rd, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Prop 102 wins and we become an embarassment.
November 3rd, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Prediction #1 – if Obama loses – many of the new base energized by him will be disheartened and probably stay out of politics for many years, the only saving grace for the D’s will be that they will still have control of Congress. The inability to win the White House in a time when the agenda seemed to be theirs to control will lead to a lot of fingerpointing and inability to regroup for another solid run for 2012. The party will split into its traditional left wing and moderate wing and the two will fight each other instead of joining to take on the GOP.
Prediction #2 – if McCain loses – the GOP will be in disarray for many years – the rebuilding will be difficult. Who wants to become a candidate for a party who decides to attack you if you fail to support one line of their party platform? If she loses ask Elizabeth Dole if she would recommend the party as a party who comes to your defense. In fact not only will the party not come to your defense, it will allow groups like Club for Growth to destroy people who have the courage to run for public office . Who needs enemies when you have friends like this? The Dems were known as the party who ‘couldn’t get their act together’; with McCain’s defeat the mantle will be picked up by the GOP.
November 3rd, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Arizona has earned that label.
Thanks to Evan Mecham we have had a Governor who referred to black children as “pickaninnies” and voted against a Martin Luther King Holiday.
November 3rd, 2008 at 9:54 pm
wow I miss them a lot.
November 3rd, 2008 at 9:54 pm
The Dems run the table in LD26, setting up a battle for control of the GOP between the Melvin backers (who will blame everyone but the candidate for the fact he lost twice) and the moderates…who will include Vic Williams…who will blame Melvin and Zerull for dragging him down with them.
Giffords by 5.5%, Mitchell by 3% and Kirkpatrick by 10%. Shadegg survives by 6%.
LaWall, Bronson and Dupnik all win comfortably.
Wong, McClure and Newman are elected to the ACC.
All the propositions go down because there are too damn many of them and the electorate is in a “vote no” mood.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Holding my breath:
Arizona is the only state in the union who has a Martin Luther King, Jr. Day because of the vote of its citizens.
The rest of the states in the union who have a Martin Luther King, Jr. Day have one because of a vote of its legislature or by executive order of its governor.
We may have some embarrassments, however, on this one we can say we voted for it.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Ron- Thanks for the clarification.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Obama wins.
House goes stronger Dem.
Senate goes Dem > 60 votes.
And we wait for the fourth horseman of the apocalypse to arrive.
November 4th, 2008 at 7:17 am
I received my November 08 issue of Forbes yesterday. The title of the lead article: “The coming Shakedown”. The point of the article? It doesn’t matter who wins – we are all going to be seeing more and not less of our money going to Washington.
November 4th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
About my Comment #18 – It look like my thoughts about Elizabeth Dole came true. Too bad she is a nice lady. I hoped I would be wrong….
November 4th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
Wasn’t it on this blog that someone with a handle of Horst Kraus promised to “name names” as soon as McMaverick lost?
November 5th, 2008 at 10:01 am
It’s time to gloat:
1.) I was RIGHT on McLame losing to NObama.
2.) We’ll see what happens to the pink gorilla.
3.) I was RIGHT that the Dims would fall shy of a 60 seat majority in the Senate.
4.) I was RIGHT that Pelosi would smoke Sheehan.
5.) I was RIGHT that Schweik would lose to Harry.
6.) I was RIGHT that the uninspiring Bee would lose to Gabby.
7.) And now reports indicate that the AZ legislature is more conservative than it was, so I was RIGHT on that too.
So, I know I can elicit some strong reactions from some, like the nudist Horst, the openly moderate Tony GOPrano, the leftist Untersturmfuhrer Klute, and the brainless Todd. Like it or not, I was RIGHT. Perhaps I’m not as insane as the lot of you think I am.
Now, it is time for a bloodletting in the Republican party. The US has utterly rejected rule by RINOs/neo-cons/moderates. Indeed, they are DIRECTLY responsible for Republican losses. Some may claim it’s a different country and we can’t return to the Reagan era, but I utterly reject that assertion. If the country has rejected rule by moderates, and elected a radical leftist because the radical energized his base, then one MUST conclude that a radical conservative will reignite the Republican fire.
November 5th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Great job on the predictions AntiFed! You nailed them right on although I wish you would have been wrong on the Schweikert vs. Mitchell race.
Given your tremendous insight, I’d like to hear your prediction on where I’m going to find my next job now that I’m unemployed. Do you think Barack Obama will pay my mortgage and other bills now?
November 5th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
DSW,
I’d love to say my husband could give you a job but his small business makes more than $250,000/year and he is about to have to let a couple of people go – Thanks Barack!
What about a job with Obama’s new military… can you goose step?
November 5th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Annie,
Make sure your husband takes a walk through the parking lot and fires those driving cars with Obama stickers first.
November 5th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
Antifederalist,
We got that same forwarded email about the small business owner & the Obama stickers….hmmmmm.