Sat 11 Oct 2008
Warning: We have no idea about the source or validity of the following link. Now that we have given the disclosure there is a new blog showing some interesting numbers around Arizona.
According to Polling Gnome, Shadegg and Schweikert are looking good. Tim Bee win be very sad if he loses by only 3 points. Is Andre Campos really 4 points ahead of Rebecca Rios? We would be very happy with that result but it seems like a large lead.
October 12th, 2008 at 1:24 am
Why is SA linking to Republicans for Saban? It doesn’t look like you link to every campaign or every campaign group, so why is SA helping Republicans for Saban? Isn’t Arpaio pro-life?
October 12th, 2008 at 6:46 am
SA does what SA wants…as it should be. They endorse candidates, some of us take them on for it. That simple and they are up front about it.
On the polls, interesting but yeah right. I don’t believe for even a second that Schweikert is up over Mitchell. I also don’t believe that Shaddegg is up by that much either.
October 12th, 2008 at 7:19 am
Glendale, Arpaio punched a few too many holes in his pro-life card when he endorsed Napolitano and more recently Susan Bitter-Smith.
October 12th, 2008 at 8:13 am
Any idea of the polling methodology?
I really really really want to believe it!!!
October 12th, 2008 at 9:03 am
On the Lord-Shadegg race, “Polling Gnome” might be right…
Two polls I’ve been able to find:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Shadegg (R) 48
Lord (D) 39
Anzalone Liszt Research (D) for the DCCC. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (No trend lines)
Shadegg (R) 44
Lord (D) 45
Shoen (L) 5
Daily Kos forgot to include the Libertarian, so, take with grain of salt.
October 12th, 2008 at 9:06 am
I’ll feel sad for JD Hayworth is Mitchell loses. He’ll have confirmation that the voters of CD-5 didn’t reject the Republican party, they rejected him. I don’t know if his fragile psyche can handle that. He’ll probably just curl up in bed with a pint of Chunky Monkey and just cry himself to sleep.
October 12th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Klute, do you know what the pension plan is for a congressman after 5 or more years? I bet JD is doing just fine. It is a lesson to all though, there are no safe seats and you must always be campaigning. That should include some door to door contact with all important independents.
October 12th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Hey, I think JD’s going to be governor one day; he’s very effective at selling himself when he doesn’t believe his own press, and he’s very good at maniuplating the media cycle. JD seems like he’s possessed by an intense desire to be loved – a narcissist, but a narcissist who needs validation. It’s extremely common among media types, and let’s never forget: that’s what JD is. He got his start in media, he crawled back to it after he lost.
“That should include some door to door contact with all important independents.”
I’m convinced that’s why he lost. I called up his office wondering when he was going to do a meet n’ greet in the district (back in ‘04 or ‘05). His office manager said “the congressman was too busy” – later that night I saw him shilling his book on Fox. He really believed he had a meal ticket for as long as he wanted it – CD-5 was little people and he was a big boy now.
October 12th, 2008 at 11:37 am
The CCCP poll is bad news for Shadegg. It’s likely voters. This year is going to be a Democrat-verstion of 1994. Safe Republicans are going to get wiped out, including Shadegg.
http://www.gutlessjohnshadegg.blogspot.com
October 12th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Andre Campos 4 points ahead.
That is great news
When in doubt vote them out!
Go Andre!
October 12th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
You can’t possibly believe that Republicans are going to win anything in any place but the safest of seats, now can you?
October 12th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
Trent Franks and Jeff Flake will win…
A prediction!
October 12th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Klute:
You are so “kind” to include me in this discussion!
Actually, it would be wonderful if the voters send Harry home after a single term. Rather than a personal rejection, I would see it as vindication.
After all, I said in my farewell to Washington that “the House is not a home,” and in subsequent comments made clear that I would not run for Congress in 2008. Why? Because it was obvious to me that the GOP needed a “fresh face” for this cycle.
Besides, Harry should have the chance to run on his record…and not recycle the maliciously toxic falsehoods he used against me.
At any rate, thank you for the blog-worthy “psychological evaluation,” and your “endorsement” for Governor.
Just one correction in closing: “Chunkey Monkey” is not my favorite–its Chocolate Chip–though eating ice cream in something I do in celebration…not in depression!
BTW…might I recommend a great poem for your next public reading?
One of my favorites from Honors English in college was “In a Prominent Bar in Secaucus One Day” by X.J. Kennedy.
Check it out!
October 13th, 2008 at 12:01 am
J.D.,
Of course, I won’t rehash our previous discussion about term-limits and all that, but I will agree with you that Mitchell has been… under-whelming (? – probably too pejorative) this term. If anything, I’ve disagreed with him too often – and if I’m disagreeing with him, it probably makes him more centrist. Probably enough to push him past Schweikert. I really wish someone would poll the damn district.
As for you being Governor… Here’s your path. Kyl wants to be the GOP Senate leader, he’ll put on a challenge to McConnell next year (”reluctantly” of course). McCain will bow out in 2010 and go into hate-filled exile (that’s hate in the misanthropic sort-of-way). Shadegg wants his seat, and he’ll get it. That leaves you, Andrew Thomas, and Russell Pearce for the governorship. You’ll come across as the sane alternative to Pearce and Thomas will be far too milquetoast for the GOP faithful to get behind. The Democrats will throw up someone with a strong base of support in Phoenix and nowhere else, and you’ll win with a 5-7 point margin of victory.
Of course, all that’s predicated on Bob Lord and McCain losing and Mitchell winning and Pearce’s bestest pal JT Ready remaining an issue (although that guilt-by-association thing only impacts Democrats). So. There you go. Get me a good cell in the Safford re-education camp when the purge of degenerate artists takes plate.
As for Ice Cream, I recommend Americone Dream. Even without the Stephen Colbert endorsement, it’s great.
I’ll check out the poem tomorrow, thanks for the referral.
October 13th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Klute, you left out Dean Martin for the governor’s race. He has some strong support outside of Maricopa and currently holds state-wide elected office.
October 13th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Treasurer is the loser position in any government, from Student Council to Federal – he might as well put up billboards that say “Kick Me”.
October 13th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Andre Campos? That’s interesting. Ms. Rios and her old man (father, Pete) have been on the taxpayer dole since time infinity. And to think that they have NEVER lived in the District that they purport to represent. Something smells foul (illegal) here. No to mention the spicey rumors of the nasty break-up between Ms. Rios and her former live-in (TEMPE,AZ) paramour. Tales tell and wags a-wail that the high ranking banker, and cycling enthusiast, was peddling(wink)their not so sordid life tale last Spring – and the ‘real truth’ he says, ‘about Ms. Rebecca.’ Too bad the the tale got lost in the wind …
October 14th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Treasurer is a looser?
I think the “loser” is the liberal who has nothing better to do than constantly post on conservative websites…”Bitter, table for one!”
October 14th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Nick,
Don’t mistake “bitter” with “fun”. I genuinely enjoy the debates I have here at SA. For the most part, they’re informed and civil.
I totally stand by my treasurer comment – most work, least fun, least impressive sounding. If Dean Martin is the Republican nominee for governor next go round, I won’t eat crow, I’ll walk through Old Town Scottsdale in crow costume on Friday night offering samples.
October 14th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Klute you are looking at the governor’s election as one race. It is two. First get through the primary and then try and win the general. We’ll admit the Treasurer is not a hot position in Arizona but Dean Martin is a bit of a rock star in the GOP and has been smart enough to travel around the state. That puts him in the top tier for the primary at least. The general may be a totally different issue but he is very much a factor in a Republican primary.
October 15th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Well, I’ll defer to you on the mechanics of the Republican Party – from an outsider’s point of view, I still think J.D. has the inside track – if he wants it, which I’m sure he does (J.D., care to interject?).
I have no idea who the Democrats would nominate. Phil Gordon? Arizona Lottery mascot Windfall Willie? A cactus wren?