Oro Valley election ends on the 20th.

     The election for the remaining Oro Valley Town Council seat ends on Tuesday, May 20. According to the town clerk’s web page it is too late to mail the ballots but you can drop them off at the Oro Valley Clerk’s office at 11000 N. La Canada Drive.

     Incumbents Barry Gillaspie and Terry Parish are seeking another 4-year term on the council but only one of them will make it. The Explorer has coverage of the primary election.

I guess their business model was not based on illegal labor.

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     One of the big scare tactics of the opponents of the employer sanctions law was that business would flee the state. Imagine my surprise when I read that a German company chose to locate in Arizona over California and Colorado. From the AZBiz.com article

we found Tucson most appealing based on living costs, taxes and shipping costs.

     I wonder if Schletter selected Arizona because of high or low taxes. Most likely another example of how low taxes attracts business, increases economic activity, and raises overall tax receipts. A big Sonoran Alliance welcome goes out to Schletter.

Jenney responds to “stupid oath” comment

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On Thursday Jim Nintzel of the Tucson Weekly stated that Tom Jenney of Americans for Prosperity “is sending out a stupid oath that he wants politicians to sign.” We have reprinted Jenney’s response below. The oath is a multiple choice form that lets politicians pledge to be a Friend of the Taxpayer or an Ally of the Taxpayer and even has a nice line for any qualifications.

 

 

17 May 2008

Re: “Hollow Promise,” The Skinny, May 15 http://www.tucsonweekly.com/gbase/Opinion/Content?oid=oid:110922

To the Tucson Weekly:

Skinny columnist Jim Nintzel finds AFP Arizona’s 2008 Local Government Tax and Spending Pledge to be “stupid” (“Hollow Promise,” May 15), because we are asking local officials to “vow not to support increasing government spending at all.”

Nintzel is often a keen observer of the state and local economy, but he has apparently missed the dozens of news stories and official reports this year projecting sharp downturns in various streams of tax revenue, including state-shared income and sales tax revenue, which will probably come in below last year’s revenues.

Even the spendthrift majorities on the Pima County Board of Supervisors and the Tucson City Council managed to get the news—and have been putting the brakes on spending. So far, the County and City budgets from FY 2009 look relatively modest, with projected spending lower than that of FY 2008.

[Sources for projected budgets:
http://www.pima.gov/finance/PDFs/Budget/RecBdgt/2008-2009/00cbdgtschl.pdf http://www.tucsonaz.gov/budget/docs/09RecBudgetFacts.pdf]

Further, the planned slowdowns in spending come after a year in which local governments went hog-wild with spending. In 2007, Supervisors Bronson, Elias, and Valadez voted to increase the county budget by 15.8 percent, and Tucson’s City Council members voted unanimously to increase the city budget by 14.6 percent. That is more than twice the rate of growth of the Tucson-area economy—even when the economy is in a period of strong growth.

In 2007, the allowable spending increase for the AFP Arizona scorecard was 7 percent, which allowed for population growth, inflation, and real per-capita economic growth. The 2008 tax and spending limits are lower, because of the recession. The people of Pima County and Tucson are going through tough times, and local governments have no business increasing taxes or spending money faster than the economy is growing.

The 2008 Local Government Tax and Spending Pledge is available online here: http://www.americansforprosperity.org/index.php?id=5491&state=az

Tom Jenney
Arizona Director, Americans for Prosperity
www.aztaxpayers.org
tjenney@afphq.org
(602) 478-0146

Newt Gingrich speaks to the Goldwater Institute: Time for fundamental change

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Newt Gingrich spoke to the Goldwater Institute at a luncheon today as part of the Jordan Rose speaker series. Unlike some speakers, Gingrich is dynamic and entertaining, the type of speaker you don’t doze off to. Jordan Rose, an attorney in town, gave the opening speech. She appropriately quoted William F. Buckley, “Idealism is fine, but as it approaches reality the cost becomes prohibitive.”

Barry Goldwater, Jr. spoke next, remarking that “Politicians are the only people who create problems, then campaign against them.”

There was a wonderful slide show of what the Goldwater Institute has done over the last few years, from TV appearances by President Darcy Olsen and staff to lectures by prominent guests, including many on the left like Todd Lang, the Director of AZ Clean Elections, which the Goldwater Institute would prefer to abolish.

Gingrich’s speech focused on why the GOP is doing so poorly. He looked back on the Contract with America, which he spearheaded in 1994. The GOP took over Congress in 1994, for the first time in 50 years, and did well keeping the majority until they turned into everything they had run against.

Gingrich laid out conservatism’s rise and fall in the late 20th century. Its ascendancy began with a small book from Barry Goldwater, The Conscience of a Conservative. Goldwater went around the country giving speeches as a Senator, attracting a niche of hardworking Americans to the Republican Party who were concerned about taxes and basic issues. He used them to build up the popularity of the party. Then came Reagan, the second great wave of conservative thought. During the 1970′s, former liberals like Bill Bennett and Jeanne Kirkpatrick came over to the right (who we now refer to as the “neocons”). The third wave of conservative ascendancy was the Contract of America, which could be considered the last phase of Reaganism.

Gingrich then discussed how conservatism failed after that. It began with Hurricane Katrina; an abysmal failure of the federal government to provide levies that worked.

Part of the problem is a lot of the things government does is dumb, but it’s not called out on it. Gingrich said time and time again when he’s asked about certain issues, his response is that what the government is doing is plain stupid.

Gingrich next discussed John McCain. He defended McCain’s temper: McCain’s temper is understandable considering the torture he underwent as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. Although Gingrich did not say he was endorsing McCain, he told the audience to consider how much worse the other two Democrat candidates are. Most compelling, he said that if McCain doesn’t carry the presidency, we’re not going to carry Congress either (well, I don’t think we’re going to retake Congress regardless of how well McCain does).

Gingrich mentioned his new bipartisan organization, American Solutions for the Future. His website is newt.org, where visitors can sign up for a free weekly newsletter.
Gingrich went back to the topic of why Republicans lost power. He said after President Reagan left office in 1988, George H.W. Bush fired all of Reagan’s staff. Reagan had neglected to ensure that his legacy would continue after he left. Similarly, when Newt left Congress, the GOP reverted back to the failed ways of its past – the ways that had kept it out of power as the minority party for most of the 20th century.

Newt said it is time for fundamental change. Do we want a smart or a dumb future?

When a politician says they’re being “practical,” in realspeak that means they’re selling out.

Gingrich moved on to some of his brilliant ideas that he is so well-known for. UPS tracks 23 million packages a day. You can log on to their website and see where a particular package is. Contrast this with the Department of Homeland Security, which can’t find 10-20 million people here illegally – even if they’re standing still. The solution according to Newt is to mail a package to everyone here illegally. Ok he was just kidding but it was a great way to put the problem into perspective.

Another egregious example of government incompetence under Bush that Gingrich relayed is the census. The government spent an exorbitant amount of money on an expensive computer to tabulate the census, which promptly failed. To rectify the situation, the government decided to spend $15 billion on a paper and pencil method instead! Not only is this going backwards, but it’s more costly. The last census only cost $6.6 billion.

Gingrich lamented the lack of progress technologically by the government. If he was in charge, he’d bring in ebay, google, myspace, etc. and have private companies handle the census online. For those people who don’t have internet access, they could fill out the census at Wal-Mart and other stores, where they’d be paid $5 each. An ironic part of his plan would be bringing in UPS, Federal Express, and USPS to find everyone else! He estimates the cost would be more like $2 billion.

He suggested another solution, his “wilder idea,” which would be to have a lottery in order to induce people to take the census, and they could receive more lottery tickets for each extra person they recruit to take the census.

Gingrich said we are in the third wave of conservatism now. It encompasses science and technology among other things. And we need long term fundamental improvements over quick fixes.

He berated the so-called energy crisis, saying that it’s entirely a politicians’ crisis. Their public policy has blocked us from seeking new energy sources and has made us dependent upon foreign oil. Americans are currently prohibited by law from looking for oil in the ocean, which is ridiculous. Brazil recently found two oil fields in the Atlantic, and is soon going to be profiting highly from them and exporting the oil.

Half the price of gas you’re paying right now is the fault of politicians. Our motto should be, “Drill here, drill now, pay less.”

Another politician-caused problem is air travel. The entrenched political machine refuses to modernize our air traffic control because they’re afraid of offending the 14,000 union members in that industry.

Next Gingrich discussed yesterday’s California Supreme Court decision which overturned the state’s ban on gay marriage. Even though 61-38% of California voters voted for the ban, 4 lawyers get to ignore their will. The people of California should recall them. In America, people are sovereign. Jefferson abolished 18 of 35 judges when he was President. It’s not unrealistic.

Regarding Obama, Gingrich had this to say: “I don’t think we have a clue what he stands for. A person who could sit through 20 years of sermons and not hear a word?” Obama has very far left views, the only way he can win the general election is if he can continue hiding his views until then.

Gingrich repeated a comment someone said to him at a talk, “I don’t see how Hillary can be for affirmative action all these years and now oppose Obama.”

After concluding his speech, Gingrich took questions from the audience. Asked about Iraq, Gingrich replied that going into Iraq was the right decision at the time given the information we had. Every major intelligence program in the world had serious concerns about Saddam Hussein. The sanctions program was falling apart. The mission to Niger indicated Saddam was trying to obtain weapons. Gingrich then diverted off into a discussion indirectly critical of the State Department (which has a reputation for being soft on terrorism, and critical of the Bush administration’s conclusion that Saddam was seeking biological weapons in Niger, as played out in the Valerie Plame accusations). Gingrich said that the State Department hides information, and won’t even admit it when it becomes fact. For example, the Israelis recently bombed a Syrian nuclear facility. Our State Department had ignored this facility, claimed that they didn’t know it was a nuclear facility, because they didn’t want to “offend” North Korea which had been lying to us about it for five years.

As for Iraq, the original plan had been very simple: remove Saddam, then leave shortly afterwards. Tommy Franks’ plan was to reduce troop levels to only 30,000 by the end of the summer after the invasion. Unfortunately, Bremer took over as “administrator” which resulted in drawing out our presence. Bremer even went on Iraqi TV speaking English – not exactly something the newly freed Iraqis wanted to see – Americans speaking in their own language on their TV. At that time, Gingrich spoke out and questioned this, said we were going over a cliff. General Casey replaced Bremer, followed by General Petraeus. Fortunately, Petraeus has handled the situation correctly and we are seeing progress.

However, our job has been made much more difficult by Iran. Half the casualties are caused by Iran. We need to stand up to Iran, and tell them there will be consequences.

Gingrich concluded by answering a question about whether it’s good idea to have many different conservative organizations. He responded that it is, and said that we need to focus on criticizing the things the left does that are not supported by a majority of the population. Most Americans agree with conservative principles. So we need to start making things that the left does an issue. For example, the Democrats recently voted to make union voting not secret. 90% of Americans disagree with this. But no one blasted them for it. Most of their constituents have no idea. We need to start calling them on these things.

The Day is done.

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     The Pima County District 1 race is really heating up. Long time incumbent Ann Day looked safe for another term until local small businessman Joe Higgins entered the race. Higgins is running a professional, all out campaign. His web site at Vote Higgins is live and now he is going straight to the voters with You Tube videos. He is moving fast on getting his signatures and has some serious backing in the fundraising area. At this time I could not even find a campaign web site for Ann Day.

    Some will say Higgins got in the race late but the real question is can Day react before it is too late. Maybe she can get a web site going before early voting is half over but we are not sure about her You Tube strategy.

A plan for victory

     Right now the Republican Party has about the same brand value as Thalidomide. I am a positive person so here is my solution. Representatives Mike Pence and John Shadegg should immediately mount a challenge to current Republican leadership in the house. Shadegg should go to everyone who asked him to stay and ask for their help in saving the party. They should draw up a current version of the Contract with America and run a nationwide campaign with every Republican signing on to a series of needed reforms. I suggest this because it is what worked last time the Republicans gained control of the house. If they need extra support to take control of the house then Senator McCain should go to John Boehner and tell him that his time is up.

     The strategy of going local and letting every Republican congressman run on local issues will only allow the Democrats to pick them off one at a time. Re-brand the party now or pay in November.

Shadegg agrees with Sonoran Alliance

There is a great editorial in today’s Wall Street Journal. Representative John Shadegg is quoted thus

Since the 2006 elections, Republicans have done absolutely nothing to redefine themselves. We can’t even get behind an earmark moratorium bill.

We heartily agree. Time to rebuild the brand and the Journal piece has some good tips.

Name the candidate

I was watching a cable show last night and one of the guests was a candidate for president. Here are some of the quotes. Name the candidate.

Host: Illegals, do you ship them home or not?
Candidate: When you find them, you ship them home, absolutely.

Host: Do you fine the companies crippling fines who are hiring employees and bringing — and being the bait to bring them in?
Candidate: Yes, you do.

Host: Global warming?
Candidate: Global — global warming doesn`t exist. Nobody`s proved it to me, and I think it`s ridiculous for a presidential candidate calling himself a Republican to be buying into the Kyoto nonsense.

Host: You`re for drilling in the ANWR.
Candidate: Absolutely.

Host: Off the coasts?
Candidate: Absolutely.

Reflections on the Arizona GOP state convention.

     Yes the “Unity Slate” was endorsed from the podium. It should not be a surprise that the state convention of the hometown senator and presumptive nominee would receive such support. If that shocks you then maybe politics is not the game for you. The slate that won simply received more votes. You can use whatever label you want but the solution is simple. Show up with more votes next time if you want your slate to win.

     The real story to me is when did Kyl and Pullen become such good friends. A few months ago Kyl was publicly criticizing the chairman and purportedly working against him behind the scenes but was quite happy to take top billing at the convention put on by the chairman, his staff, and volunteers. Will Senator Kyl now have something nice to say about Pullen or at least start helping the state party?

     The first sign I had that there was nothing funny going on was when I received my credentials. The next sign was when I was allowed to walk around with a briefcase full of alternate slates and hand them out whenever I wanted. While the official slate was endorsed from the podium there was no attempt to squash the distribution of other slates.

     There were multiple non-McCain slates. Some of them were meant to confuse and some were printed because not everyone could agree a single alternate slate. This did not turn out to be an effective strategy and ended up confusing some delegates who would have happily voted for the non “Unity” slate.

     There were some comments indicating that there was some yelling in certain CD meetings. I was in the CD 8 meeting and it was very politely and correctly run. Floor nominations were taken in an orderly manner.

     One possible suggestion for future meetings is to allow people from different factions to observe the printing and handling of the final ballot count results. I do not believe that anything was going on but that would remove any chance of doubt.

     I was struck but the mood of some McCain forces. They were having a great day and their faction clearly won but some of them almost seemed to be in a sour mood. Lighten up guys, your side won!

Keegan to Assist McCain

Lisa Graham Keegan 

Maricopa County Deputy Manager, Lisa Graham Keegan, has decided to walk away from her $175,240 job at the County in order to help Senator John McCain with his Presidential bid according to The Arizona Republic.

Keegan started her current bid with the county as a consultant before being offered a full time deputy position to County Manager, David Smith last October. Her last day with the County will be Friday.

What role the former State Superintendent of Public Instruction will play is not clear but her background in education policy will likely be put to good use for McCain who has not received press on his education ideas. This leaves some to speculate that Keegan may be eyeing a cabinet position – Secretary of Education - with a McCain Administration.

Democrats win special congressional races with social conservatives.

     It is great to read about the recent results in special congressional elections. In both Louisiana 6 and now Mississippi 1 the Democrats won with pro-gun AND pro-life candidates. That’s right, the Democrats are beating Republicans till it hurts by running pro-life candidates. Good for them. Obviously the Democrats have figured out something. Now maybe Republicans will come to their senses about strengthening the brand.

Here is what the Evans-Novak report had to say about LA-6.

Democrats also nominated the best possible candidate. Cazayoux has amassed a pro-life, pro-gun record in the legislature, and his campaign established him as a conservative legislator early.

Here is CBS News reporting on MS-1.

Childers stressed his independence, emphasizing his support of gun rights and opposition to abortion. He said his values match those of most voters in the deeply conservative district.

The Secret to a Six Figure Income?

Is it true that Legislative District 8 Chairman Royce Flora is being considered for a six figure salaried job by Maricopa County Treasurer Charles “Hos” Hoskins?

It wasn’t long ago that Flora, an applicant for the Treasury vacancy for which Hoskins was ultimately chosen, was feeling out potential supporters for a possible primary challenge. You may remember that the County Board did not even select Flora as a finalist for that position.

I know what you’re thinking; aren’t audio/visual technicians for the state House always in the running for these high paying financial services positions? Not to my recollection. Some of our readers who are much younger than me, who can do more with the internet than check e-mail and blog, could probably find out what Flora is making now; I’m certain it’s not anything in the range of his potential County job.

In the time of a severe budget shortfall, where the County has made significant cutbacks, could it really be possible that Hoskins would dangle an expensive carrot to avoid a challenge to his office? My advice to Hoskins, tell him to ‘bring it on.’ In 2004, Flora got waxed in a primary against Collette Rosati.

If this deal goes through, and we don’t see some compelling reason for this hire, maybe we should all start making noise about challenges to people who run large agencies. In the meantime, there’s already a repository for political hacks who can’t find work someplace else.

Hmm…Not So Bad

     Tedski got us thinking what happens if Napolitano is selected to run for VP with Obama. If Janet resigns before the vote then Jan Brewer becomes governor. Then if McCain pulls it out and wins and has to step down from his position in the senate Brewer appoints his successor. Maybe she could chose a moderate conservative like Andrew Thomas.

Kyl said it not us.

     In an Arizona Daily Star article by Daniel Scarpinato, Senator Kyl is quoted as saying:

one reason within his own party, John McCain didn’t immediately, instantly get the support of 100 percent of Republicans was he was seen as too independent, too much of a maverick.

     If it is good that McCain is independent and a maverick why is bad when some members of the party grassroots display the same characteristics?

Nightmare scenario

So the state convention went well and McCain is all but officially the nominee. The electoral map looks good but the likely Democratic nominee, while weaker than Senator Clinton nationally, is stronger in Arizona. Even though the McCain forces won on Saturday some of them were not smiling. Maybe the following possibility is keeping them up at night.

Senator Obama wins his party’s nomination. In a recent poll he was only 9% behind McCain. Obama chooses Governor Napolitano as his running mate and then the Obama ticket is only 4% behind in the state. Then McCain chooses Lindsey Graham as his running mate. Graham is heckled on a visit to the state and tells the heckler to “just shut up.” Some conservatives are offended and Obama is only 2% behind. The Bob Barr makes a whistle stop tour through the state and speaks to audiences in Phoenix and Tucson. Obama is only 1% behind. Then election day arrives and it’s time to count the ballots. Sleep well.

Traffic commutes shortening for Valley drivers due to crackdown on illegal immigration

As a result of Arizona’s new employer sanctions law and tough enforcement of local immigration laws by Sheriff Joe Arpaio and County Attorney Andrew Thomas, Valley drivers are noticing their work commuting times have substantially decreased. Illegal immigrants are fleeing the state in droves, mostly leaving for states and cities with sanctuary city policies like Maryland and San Francisco. Arizona motorists who once sat in traffic for an hour on their way to work on the I-10, I-17, 101, 202 and 60 are reporting as much as a 50% decrease in commute times. One man said that his 7am commute on the I-17 used to be all stop-and-go, getting him to work at 8am. Now, if he leaves at 7am he is at work by 7:30. Another man reported that his commute from the West Valley on the I-10 into Phoenix used to take him close to 1 1/2 hours. Now, it’s rarely over 45 minutes.

So, the next time you’re driving to work or returning home and pleasantly surprised at how quickly you got there, thank our legislators for passing the employer sanctions law, and Sheriff Joe Arpaio for enforcing our laws. The significant decrease in neck and back pain for those of us who suffer from it in stop-and-go traffic has been a blessing.
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Live blogging the convention

 Arizona Republican State Convention

The story from the convention is that there is no story. The official party slate ruled the day and the delegates were all well behaved and congenial. The conservatives scored a few delegates in the CD 4 voting. The state party did a good job on organizing the event. Most people were busy visting with good friends, talking to a candidate, etc to get too worked up.

1:10 Lunch is over and main meeting is back in session. The party/McCain slate won in most of the CD voting. Dean Martin is speaking to the audience now. Voting for at large delegates coming up.

10:05 Shadegg is now speaking. He is good but not quite as good as Kyl.

9:50 Kyl’s speach was very well received. Credentials reports 850 delegates. Re open for 15 minutes.

9:39 Long opening prayer included a sermon. Great rendition of the Star Spangled Banner. Kyl is now speaking for the “unable to make it” McCain. Kyl as usually is very eloquent. Kyl said there was some technichal difficulty with McCain video feed. Not sure in McCain will even speak by remote.