Remember what happens when a moderate candidate is forced to the right.
Arizona Politics for Conservatives: Sonoran Alliance
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One key detail is the fact that GHWB actually got elected. I think McCain would rather lose as a moderate/liberal/maverick than win as a conservative. Even when he talks about issues like, say, immigration, you can tell that he is always trying to leave himself a way out. I don’t think we will be hearing “Read my lips, NO MORE AMNESTY” from him.