Mon 11 Feb 2008
John Shadegg will announce his retirement from Congress today. Senator Jim Waring is a likely candidate, as is Shadegg staffer Sean Noble, who nearly moved to CD 5 to challenge Harry Mitchell. Waring has a record of sponsoring popular bills, from a variety of measures to combat drunk driving to banning taxpayer financed political advertising. He’s also a notoriously hard worker, who meets thousands of his constituents at their doors every year, and as of the latest rounds of filings leads the State Senate in fundraising. Noble will have to work harder to introduce himself to the public, making the difficult transition from staffer to candidate, but he’s a skilled political operative and it’s likely Shadegg will work hard to help him succeed. For now, I’d give the edge to Waring.
Tom Horne and Dean Martin have been mentioned as candidates in the event Shadegg were to retire, but his surprise 2008 retirement would force either to give up a statewide office for the mere chance to run.
Who else could get in this race? What is everyone else thinking?
February 11th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Wow…my first inclination is to ask WHY? Is this scandal? Is it the prospect of a hard fought race against Lord?
I am betting the former. Folks here has spoken of him as a potential candidate down the road for U.S. Senate. He also was busy raising money for this race, and as this blog reported, he had raised over a million dollars getting ready to take on Lord.
So…what is UP?
As for potential candidates, those you mention are formidable and excellent but you must admit, they are way behind and now this puts Lord in the catbird seat with $400k and now a open seat that he will garner him even more party and individual money.
So your thoughts? This is a shocker. Really.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
I think Shadegg has been in office for 14 years, he’s now in the minority, and he’s lost two leadership elections.
He’s also giving up a seven figure annual income to keep a job he’s probably bored to death of.
I’m sure he wasn’t relishing the idea of fighting hard for a job he’s had for that long and he’s probably tired of doing.
Lord is going to get waxed by the Republican nominee, whoever he is. Waring or Noble is capable of raising the money to hold what is an extremely safe Republican seat, in a year where McCain heads the ticket.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Ditto Publius.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Are you all so sure about the scandal issue? The K Street stuff has brought down two GOP house members already…Shaddegg can’t have been all that divorced from all that. In addition, remember the recent defense he made on campaign finance??? I supect we are going to hear more about this.
As for the GOP nominee waxing Lord. He has $600K in the bank, good name rec., and is running in a particularly unfriendly time for the GOP. Plus…its now an open seat…which gives him an even better chance of winning than he has before.
Anyhow…aside from all this politics stuff. I am still shocked and you all are losing someone dear to you, so let me say…sorry for that.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Thanks Kral. I cannot imagine a scandal in his office! Here is an excerpt from the email he sent out:
“My health is great; I have not felt better in years, and I expect to be involved in our nation’s political discourse for decades to come.
I just came off the most successful fundraising year of my career. I raised more than $1 million last year, more since the beginning of this year, and I haven’t begun to tap the financial support I could get if I needed it. Recently I have seen polling data that shows I would beat my Democrat opponent by more than 31 points.
It also shows a generic Republican beating a generic Democrat and it shows that on issue after issue the voters of this district support conservative, Republican positions. There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that the Republican nominee for this seat will win in November. This district will stay Republican.
The bottom line is that this is a personal decision between my family and me, about our dreams, goals, and ambitions, and we have concluded that it is time for me to seek a new challenge in a different venue to advance the cause of freedom.”
Thank you Congressman Shadegg!
February 11th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
“…never intended to be a professional politician” So, don’t look for a Senator Shadegg campaign?
My opinion is Dean Martin would be the most talented and exciting alternative. But yes, bad timing apparently?
February 11th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Sen. Barbara Leff, Sen. Pamela Gorman, Rep. Doug Clark, Rep. Sam Crump and who knows who else. Plenty of folks with fat wallets in that district and the ability to write a huge check in a short race could make a real difference.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Someone PLEASE talk me off the ledge here! This is devastating. I figured that people like Shadegg were the only hope we had for the next few years, and they are disappearing one by one. As for the seat, even if the GOP holds it, we will be losing one of the most reliable conservatives and replacing him with a powerless freshman.
February 11th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
The effects of a Shadegg retirement are staggering. This will create a huge shift in the political chessboard as state legislators scramble to file papers and raise money for the seat. State Reps will jump for State Senate seats leaving those seats vacant. Stand by for political excitement in the months ahead!
February 11th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
DSW is right. Shadegg’s retirement is HUGE. The ripple effect will be far reaching and long lasting. He is a good man and I am sure he thought it through. This is a big loss for us. We need to field some credible candidates pronto.
February 12th, 2008 at 7:54 am
DSW and Poison are right.
February 12th, 2008 at 7:56 am
Crud…Nightcrawler is right too…forgot to give props.
I would add that in addition to candidates, you will need a ton of money…fast.
Hence my points above.
February 12th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Here is where we really need a strong hand at the helm of the party. Pullen should:
1. declare that he is not running for the seat.
2. temp. check the elected officials in the district (some of the names mentioned above are great, others crazy, regardless they all need a dose of reality in terms of how much money it will take and how much money the state and national party does NOT have. Hopefully that sorts out the chaff — this district doesn’t need a 10-way primary. As much as I hate to agree with Kral, Lord’s money (without a primary) does make a formidable opponent if we’re going to bloody ourselves up.
February 12th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Sorry kral, I disagree with your claim that Bob Lord has good name recognition. I live just over the line from CD3 and, while I’m not an insider or an active party member, I follow local politics closely. I had never heard of this guy until last month. Good name recognition means the general public knows who you are, not just people who are active in the party. That description doesn’t fit Lord. And given the registration disparity in that district, I see no reason for the GOP to fear losing this one.
February 12th, 2008 at 11:56 am
BoredinAZ,
I think they were a little worried with even Shaddegg at the helm. Honestly. Shaddegg went out of his way to raise about a million bucks when he learned that Lord had made a pretty impressive stab at $400k in the first reporting period. He now has $600k.
What an open seat does is make it even MORE difficult and you will need more resources.
I would argue that Lord has as much name rec. as those people have mentioned here…Shaddegg had a lot more than they did…and now he is gone.
Both parties will pour money into this one…but Lord has a nice head start.
February 12th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Sorry Kral….whoever Shadegg endorses, they are gold. Given the potential of a very liberal president, the R’s are going to come out in numbers and the more centrist Obama/Hillary voters may very well back up their vote with a conservative congress.
Example: Arizona ’06 ballot. With the exception of the marriage amendment which was too broadly written and the animal rights bill (who votes against cute little piglets…OK, me), the conservative issues passed or the liberal issues were defeated. Yet, we elected Janet. I know the clean elections system gives the incumbent a free pass to the next term, but it still shows the willingness of voters to protect their vote with a built in checks and balance.
February 13th, 2008 at 10:28 am
The money doesn’t mean all that much when you have to spend a good deal of it just telling people who you are (see Pederson, J.). Lord is going to have to spend quite a bit of that money just establishing himself to the public as opposed to some of the GOP who are already holding office and have an electoral base from which to start their campaigns. Waring, Weiers, and Martin are far better known to the general public than Lord simply because of the offices they currently hold. They are known quantities in a GOP district. Sorry kral, but absent scandal, CD3 will stay red. You’re better off spending your money on Harry, Gabby or Ann.