Huckabee moves up 12 points in 2 days

Mike Huckabee had about 25% support in Virginia on Thursday and Friday of last week. In the latest poll taken on Saturday and Sunday his support move up to 37%. If that trend continues through tomorrow then Virginia could be very close race on the Republican side.

Virginia is similar to Michigan in that you do not choose a party when you register but rather when you vote in a primary you choose a ballot from one party or the other. The question is will the independents vote for the Democrat ballot in order to vote for Obama, especially since the race is already over on the Republican side. Tuesday’s results should be interesting.

Virginia is winner take all with 63 delegates.

President Barack Obama

It’s becoming quite clear where the 2008 Presidential Election is going at this time. Now that the GOP has all but made it official that the nominee will be Senator John McCain, I’m really going to go out on the proverbial limb and predict that the next President will be Barak Obama.

Now before you go criticizing me for trying to start a rainstorm on the McCain parade, let me ask you if you’ve been watching the Obama rallies? There is more excitement, inspiration, motivation, energy and overall resolve on behalf of the Democrats to elect someone completely new and outside the Potomac beltway. The first term-senator from Illinois represents this not just to the Dems but to those wanting something other than another 4-8 years of Clinton. (Americans are tired of the 20 years of Bush-Clinton-Bush.)

That’s not to say that Clinton doesn’t hold the admiration of longtime Dems. I predicted some time ago that she’ll be on the ticket just not as President. Hillary is straining to make campaign budget comittments and major donors are pulling out as they see the writing on the wall but they’ll keep her in the game because they believe she deserves some proximity to the Executive branch. But ultimately, they want a new beginning and the only way they can get there is by electing someone who represents new energy and charisma.

Just like in 1996, the head of the Republican ticket is settled and the perception is not just that the GOP is nominating someone who knows the ropes – a real insider – but someone who has fractured and de-energized the party. This will be the fatal flaw for Senator McCain as someone from the past meets someone for the future. Its a hard sale for the GOP to contrast the “wise elder” against the energy of a Kennedy’esque candidate like Obama. John McCain has found himself in the most critical battle of his political life and many will wonder if he can endure. I don’t think he can and the polls reflect that.

As the economy continues to decline, be prepared to revisit shades of the ’92 slogan, “It’s the economy stupid” as Americans continue to lose hope that anyone representing the past can really solve their troubled times. Much of Mike Huckabee’s message of economic populism has hit home with these voters – a preclude to times ahead? Economic stimulus rebate checks will hit soon but it won’t be enough to make a difference and many voters will see it as a buy-off by a Congress and President approaching single-digit approval ratings.

This fall, Americans will choose between a party divider and a party uniter, old blood vs new blood, aged vs. energy, cynicism vs. inspiration. Republicans have all but made their choice official while Democrats close in on combining their ticket. Yes, I’ll be voting for the GOP nominee like many of you but I’m afraid our vote won’t be enough to overcome the momentum building among people who believe this is their time especially during times like these.

What if

If Senator McCain resigns soon enough he will force an election for his senate seat in the 2008 cycle. Shadegg will likely run for and win that seat, thus replacing McCain. If an equally conservative Republican runs for CD-3 (we can dream) then the net effect will be to trade out Shadegg for McCain. If they had told me sooner I would have voted for McCain in the Arizona primary.

PRESS RELEASE: JOHN SHADEGG TO RETIRE

The following press release was just issued by Congressman John Shadegg. This will certainly cause a huge shift and scramble among Republicans.

Congressman John Shadegg Opts Not To Seek Re-Election
 
“It is time to seek a new challenge in a different venue.”

Washington, DC – Congressman John Shadegg (R-AZ) issued the following statement today regarding the election this fall:
 
Serving Arizona in the United States Congress is the single greatest privilege in my professional life.  It was a dream I had for years before my election in 1994, and I still get goose bumps when I look up at the Capitol dome as I walk to a vote.
 
I grew up in the shadow of Senator Barry Goldwater’s home (Be-Nun-I-Kin).  My father, Stephen Shadegg, was Senator Goldwater’s speechwriter and campaign manager.  I inherited his passion for freedom and his deep and abiding faith in the goodness of people.  Like Senator Goldwater, I believe in the ability of individual Americans, regardless of their position, circumstances, or status in life, to make decisions for themselves and to manage and control their own destiny better than any government bureaucrat, agency, or politician.
 
For almost 14 years, I have enjoyed the great honor of fighting for freedom and individual responsibility in the U.S. House of Representatives – the peoples’ House.
 
I was elected at an exciting point in our nation’s history as a part of the ’94 Revolution.  And, incredibly, I have pretty much seen it all. (In fact, over the years as events have unfolded, every time I would think I had seen it all, something stunning and unexpected would happen).
 
All in all, it was never my intention to be a professional politician.  I have tried to do my best for the people of America, Arizona, and my district.   And I believe I have accomplished a great deal as a Member of the U.S. House.
 
I have served in the Majority and the Minority.  I’ve seen a balanced budget and deep deficits.  I’ve served when we had a Democrat President and a Republican President. I’ve witnessed a government shutdown and an Impeachment

Shadegg to retire

John Shadegg will announce his retirement from Congress today. Senator Jim Waring is a likely candidate, as is Shadegg staffer Sean Noble, who nearly moved to CD 5 to challenge Harry Mitchell. Waring has a record of sponsoring popular bills, from a variety of measures to combat drunk driving to banning taxpayer financed political advertising. He’s also a notoriously hard worker, who meets thousands of his constituents at their doors every year, and as of the latest rounds of filings leads the State Senate in fundraising. Noble will have to work harder to introduce himself to the public, making the difficult transition from staffer to candidate, but he’s a skilled political operative and it’s likely Shadegg will work hard to help him succeed. For now, I’d give the edge to Waring.

Tom Horne and Dean Martin have been mentioned as candidates in the event Shadegg were to retire, but his surprise 2008 retirement would force either to give up a statewide office for the mere chance to run.

Who else could get in this race? What is everyone else thinking?

Busy week in Tucson

     Tuesday is the regular meeting of the Pima County Republican Club. John McElroy will speak about President Lincoln. Arrive between 11:15 am and noon at Sabbar Shrine Temple, 450 S. Tucson Blvd. Buffet lunch is $9. All are welcome.

     On Wednesday evening Frank Antenori will formally announce his candidacy for state legislature. Details on Frank’s web site.

     The Tim Bee campaign has starting making calls to voters. If you would like to help out and take back CD-8 please contact the campaign.

     The Pima County Republican Party is having their annual Lincoln Day dinner on Saturday the 16th. Contact party headquarters to make a reservation.

     As Michelle Malkin says, “Stay positive and stay focused.”