Sun 3 Feb 2008
Update: Zogby now has Romney ahead by 8% in California.
Despite some media reports the Republican primary is not over. One Georgia poll even has Romney up by 1%, that is in Georgia with Huckabee still in the race. A month ago Romney was polling 14% in the state and is now somewhere between 27% and 30%.
Even though he is still in the race I could not find a single state that Huckabee is slated to win outside of his native Arkansas. Romney has a clear lead in Utah, Massachusetts, and Colorado (125 delegates combined.) He is also within a few points of winning the most delegate rich state of them all, California (173 delegates.) Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota (80 delegates combined) also caucus on Tuesday. In the past Romney has done well in this format and region.
McCain looks set to win NY and NJ (153 delegates combined) but if Romney does well in CA and GA (245 delegates combined) then he is still very much in the game.
I wonder if McCain will regret wasting his time in Massachusetts when he could have been in California? CBS news reports that up to 20% of the electorate has not made up their minds yet. Wonder how many of them listen to talk radio. Paul Mirengoff at Power Line goes for Romney. ABC news admits Romney is competitive in California and then asks when he will get out of the race – only the MSM can ask that question with a straight face. In an interesting twist Arnold Schwarzenegger’s wife has endorsed Barack Obama.
For a list of Super Tuesday states see this Wikipedia article. For the latest on specific polls see Real Clear Politics.
February 3rd, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Check your California rules. No one is going to get all the delegates unless they get somewhere over a 60+% in every CD.
February 3rd, 2008 at 10:28 pm
You are correct Ann, CA is not winner take all. By win I meant obtain the highest percentage of votes.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:50 am
The California numbers are way too complicated to even try and guess. It is the best hope for a second place finisher to get a good number of delegates. If the district has 4 delegates, the candidate with 38% of the vote gets 2 delegates and the candidate with 62% gets 2. If it is a 3 or 5 delegate district then the majority winner gets the majority of delegates.
Only in California could the minority speak as loudly as the majority.
A numerical win is momentum and cause for other voters to take notice. A second place keeps you in the hunt and offers plenty of delegates.
February 4th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Hmmmm interesting. If Romney wins a bunch of states or solidifies a good number of delegates…to keep it even, then we will see quite a race. It would give the GOP a chance to do what the Dems are doing now. Looking at only 2 candidates and considering which is best for the nation and party.
February 4th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Ann those are the dems rules. The GOP is much simplier How CA GOP Delegates will be won on Super Tuesday
The Field Poll is the ONLY California Daily Tracking Poll in CA this election cycle. They show John McCain GAINING – McCain 32% – Romney 24%
February 4th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
You are right, thank you. I was in a meeting in DC recently where a political scientist was explaining all the ins and outs of the California primary and the road to the nomination, for both parties. Goes to show what the “smart” people in Washington know!